Mets & Carlos Zambrano revisted (rumor)
by BLieve on Dec 31, 2009 12:30 AM EST
Email
PrintA few weeks ago I proposed a trade on Fanpost to a crowd of severe criticism. It involved Carlos Zambrano going to the Mets for John Maine and prospects. While that proposal was based off what I believed each team would be interested in, I came across some similar rumors today. While the rumor does not list a complete trade package for Zambrano, it does mention names of interests.
So for the folks who do not believe Zambrano is available, follow the links.
For those that do not believe that Angel Pagan is a trade candidate, follow the links.
I pray that Omar has Zambrano on his radar like Ive had since he re-signed with the Cubs a few years ago. While I am not sure why the Cubs would be interested in Castillo with Hudson and other serviceable options around, I believe Zambrano to the Mets can be done with or without Castillo. Of all the major pitchers traded within the last year, I believe Z's value is most similar to Peavy's value so a comparable return to what the Padres received would not be absurd at all Cubs fans.
17 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Z
Z wouldn’t waive his no-trade, his agent has come out and said that Z isn’t interested nor has he been asked to waive it. If you listen to Sherman Z’s available if you listen to Heyman he’s not. MLBTR did a post a few days ago outlining everything I just said.
I wouldn’t move Z for Pagan + Maine + prospects…
Comparing Z and Peavy's return
is a bit flawed in that, the Padres were at a far different point than the Cubs. There’s been little to no indication that the Cubs are in a rebuilding mode. I wouldn’t be totally against it, but there’s been no indication of that.
As it stands, if the Cubs move Z, they would need some ready assets in return that can provide better pitching (they still likely want/need 1 more starter as of now, considering Lilly starts the year on the DL) or they would need quality young prospects in return with the Mets eating enough money for the Cubs to make FA pitching moves. Look at the Peavy trade again. Your suggestion/implication seems to be that they didn’t get a huge return. Considering how overprotected arms are these days, landing 4 young arms in return isn’t bad by any means. I think Dexter Carter is better than how John graded him (and better than how he pitched in those few starts in the Padres system), but even if you don’t agree with that, it’s still a young arm that showed some promise in the minors.
As for Pagan, I’m still not sold on the bat, but the bigger issue isn’t that. The issue as to why the Cubs likely wouldn’t have high value for Pagan is that they only have 1 starting OF job open and Lou Pinella has already tried Pagan in CF, and wasn’t happy with it. The chances of them trading for Pagan to start in CF seem rather slim.
As I’ve noted on BCB, I wouldn’t be against a Z trade, and I also wouldn’t be shocked by one. A bit surprised, yes. All that said, I just don’t see where the match is with the Mets right now, unless the Mets forked over either Ike Davis or Jenrry Mejia in a package, and I don’t expect the Mets to do either, as it makes little sense for them unless Omar is just crazy. I’m not even sure the Niese’s and the Holt’s would hold as much value, unless the Mets ate a gigantic chunk of the money, which I find unlikely considering the rumored financial limitations after Bay’s signing (not sure Niese would make the opening day pitching staff as the Cubs have their pen options set up from the left handed side set up after signing Grabow).
Peavy was also a much more team friendly contract.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 31, 2009 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
What?
Peavy’s contract is not friendly at all. Neither is Zambrano’s, but that doesn’t mean Peavy’s isn’t on a bad contract as well.
peavy's contract pays him essentially exactly what he's projected to be worth over the course of that contract.
it is not bad.
Based on whose projection?
He has been worth around $12M the last 2 seasons and he’s due to make (averaged) $17.5M per year for the next 4 seasons. He’s also had the benefit of playing his entire career in Petco which has kept his HR/FB right around 8-9%.
I would absolutely not want that contract.
one assumption you appear to be making is that the dollar value of a win is going to remain constant.
rather dubious.
and i imagine you already know one place where such a projection could come from since you’re quoting fangraphs valuations.
You're expecting it to increase?
I think we’ll continue to see the money spent on free agents reined in. And ZIPS projects Peavy to only pitch 155.2 innings next season to a 3.99 ERA (3.86FIP).
of course.
i’m not a pessimist that thinks the world economy is going to implode. if you think the cost of a win on the free agent market is going to be the same or less in 2013 than it was in 2008, i’d recommend that you run off to montana, build yourself a bunker and start stockpiling canned goods.
It's actually gone down according to fangraphs
to 3.5 million per win in the current market.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
john lackey received 5 years / $82.5M
let me know if you think jake peavy would receive less than that if he were a free agent. in comparison, i rather think the 3 years / $52M commitment to peavy is quite reasonable. at any rate, i wouldn’t be concerned with peavy’s health, since his injuries have not been arm related, and he’s now on the white sox, who can boast having one of the most durable pitching staffs of the last decade and not without good reason.
"For those that do not believe that Angel Pagan is a trade candidate, follow the links."
-1
Who loves orange soda?
With all the money Zambrano's owed
there’s no way I would want to give up a significant prospect package, if they the cubs are really having financial trouble then who should be looked at almost as a straight salary dump. He’s only getting paid 2 million less than Halladay the next 2-3 years, and he may be worth half as much as that over that time period. I’m not even sure I’d want t give up a cheap controllable player like Pagan for him with the money he’s owed and the value he’s actually provided the last few years.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
+1
despite a slight improvement this season, zambrano is in a very consistent career decline, to the point that in the next couple years he’ll be fighting to keep his era below 4 while earning around $18m for the next 4 years.
if it were 2, maybe even 3 years, i’d say maybe but for 4 years no way. not for good prospects, not for decent prospects, not for anything of any value.
by Rob Castellano on Jan 1, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
