BA SD Top 10
by rdf8585 on Dec 3, 2009 11:44 AM EST
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TOP TEN PROSPECTS
1. Donavan Tate, of
2. Simon Castro, rhp
3. James Darnell, 3b
4. Jaff Decker, of
5. Logan Forsythe, 3b
6. Cory Luebke, lhp
7. Wynn Pelzer, rhp
8. Everett Williams, of
9. Edinson Rincon, 3b
10. Aaron Poreda, lhp
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Jaff Decker
Best Power Hitter Matt Clark
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Logan Forsythe
Fastest Baserunner Luis Durango
Best Athlete Donavan Tate
Best Fastball Wynn Pelzer
Best Curveball Keyvius Sampson
Best Slider Wynn Pelzer
Best Changeup Jeremy Hefner
Best Control Chris Fetter
Best Defensive Catcher Luis Martinez
Best Defensive Infielder Beamer Weems
Best Infield Arm Lance Zawadzki
Best Defensive Outfielder Donavan Tate
Best Outfield Arm Rymer Liriano
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269205.html
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Decker too low
I would put him at #1.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Reason
Decker isn’t thought of more highly is his lack of athleticism and projection. If they do keep him, I imagine they work him out at 1b at some point this year, when they perform their due diligence on Adrian Gonzalez. He really can’t man a corner OF spot in Petco, and he doesn’t have another spot he can play…with that being said, you can’t argue with his production at this point in his career…
Decker
I coach high school ball here in AZ and he played for a rival and I had the opportunity to watch him play over the years. He had an old man’s body when he was 16-17. Short, fat, even looked like he was balding a little! The kid can smash though and has more defensive savvy than he is given credit for. He pitched and played CF in high school. His arm is plus (threw high 80s low 90s) and he is fairly athletic for being a short fat kid. He doesn’t have much speed, but he has some quickness in CF and good instincts. If he keeps his body in check I would think he could be a very servicable LFer and maybe even man RF. Of course, if his body explodes to 240+ pounds, 1b would be his limited option
Prince Fielder
I see him on a weekly basis at API, he’s probably about 5’10"
If you can smash, play in the NL, and have zero defensive options they will work you in somehow
I just meant he's fighting the odds and is sub-optimal physically for first
Obviously it’s possible.
He’s also extremely named Jaff for a first baseman.
Seems like
his position will be determined by whether or not Blanks can stick in LF. If he can, then that leaves 1st open for Decker. But one of the two will have to stay in left, and I’d say it’s more than likely Decker
Decker
will have a better MLB career than anyone else on this list.
by richieabernathy on Dec 3, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think he deserves...
to be where he is. simon Castro is a very good pitching prospect, Tate could be a Carlos Beltran type player, and Darnell will likely move to second and with his bat he could be one of the better ones in the minors.
11 minutes?
I would have bet a lot of money on the first “Decker should be #1” post being inside of 10 minutes of the original post. Boo.
Decker
I’d take him over anyone else in the system, including Tate. Especially considering Tate’s recent run of injuries.
Poreda
With below-average command and secondary pitches, he sounds like a bullpen guy to me, so I’m not at all surprised by his ranking.
MLB Draft Examiner
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Poreda Pt. II
It’s a good thing that he’s big, lefthanded and can touch the mid-90s, otherwise I would say that he wouldn’t belong on the list, or many others for that matter.
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 3, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
kind of a weird statement
“Except for the physical attributes and fastball velocity which he actually does possess, he doesn’t deserve to be ranked”.
You're right, my statement was weird on its face.
I should have explained myself better.
I’m trying to draw attention to the fact that the only reason he made the list is because he throws hard and has a desirable pitcher’s profile, and I think every organization has several pitchers with a similar size-handedness-velo combination but virtually no pitchability to speak of.
I also think that Poreda’s inclusion in the top 10 is BA tipping their cap to Poreda’s former prospect status and guarding against the possibility that he figures it out.
http://www.examiner.com/x-28775-MLB-Draft-Examiner
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 3, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think he's got more going for him than just size and velocity
His career minor league walk rate is acceptable at 3.6 BB/9, and he’s posted exceptional GB rates. To me he profiles like a left handed version of Justin Masterson, a 2-pitch guy that succeeds by getting batters to pound the ball in the dirt while maintaining a solid strikeout rate. Not a star, but certainly will have value in the majors.
I can go with some of that comp.
But it looks like Masterson had significantly better command (2.3 BB/9 in minors) than Poreda at a similar stage in their careers, and Masterson has always thrown a better changeup. Maybe I’m being too harsh with Poreda, but when I’m reading a scouting report that says below-average command with almost no feel for a changeup (after three full professional seasons), I don’t give that player any chance of becoming a respectable starter.
http://www.examiner.com/x-28775-MLB-Draft-Examiner
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 3, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Masterson really doesn't throw a changeup though
3% of his pitches, as per pitch f/x algorithm.
Also, I’m not a big fan of the whole “if you exclude his worst X starts…”, but Poreda did basically implode in terms of his control after the trade to the Padres (same for Dexter Carter actually). Poreda’s walk rate while in the White Sox organization was pretty much right in line with Masterson’s career minor league rates.
Also his “three full professional seasons” comment isn’t necessarily correct. He got 46 rookie ball IP in 2007 (his draft year), then about 150 innings in 2008, then got only around 100 IP while jumping across 4 teams in 2009. He was drafted as an arm-strength project, so to give up on him after 2 1/2 seasons would be premature.
And even if he doesn’t end up being a respectable starting pitcher, he still profiles as an impact bullpen guy, and when those players are on the cusp of being MLB ready that’s generally worthy of a top 10 org ranking in my opinion (unless it’s a system that is exceptionally deep).
Re:
Right on about Masterson’s changeup frequency – part of that is because he doesn’t have a good one either (the other part is that he naturally used it less as a reliever), which is why opinion was mixed as to whether he could cut it as a rotation mainstay. The fact that Masterson’s changeup has always been a few ticks better than Poreda’s says less about the quality of Masterson’s changeup than it says about just how bad Poreda’s is. And if there has always been questions about the quality of Masterson’s changeup (and there have been), then I can deduce that Poreda’s odds of becoming an effective innings-eater (like Masterson can be) are less than that of Masterson.
As for the three full pro seasons comment, this sounds like semantics, and I think you knew what I meant, but I will rephrase anyway. I think it’s a bad sign that his changeup grades in the neighborhood of 35 after logging more than 300 professional innings. For me, that’s enough time to show more than just a “well below-average” offering.
As for being an impact bullpen guy, I can see that – finally something we can agree upon. : )
http://www.examiner.com/x-28775-MLB-Draft-Examiner
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 3, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I’m not sure they received enough for Peavy.
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And got 4 pitchers who
escape the AL, and move to a great pitchers park says something about what they received for an injured Peavy.
they could have gotten any four pitchers then
this comment makes no sense.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 3, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
Tate's most recent injury
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/dec/03/padres-tate-injured-atv-crash/
He has a broken jaw, which is now wired shut. Pads say he’ll be ready for spring training, but it’s possible that he could lose weight/muscle mass during that time.
Doesn’t really affect his long term prospect status, but you’ve got to think that the front office is not too happy about this.
Not good
Since the 2000 draft, eight of the Padres’ 10 top draft picks have had injury or personal troubles shortly after the draft.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
I don't know if I would
classify Tate’s injuries as problematic at this point. Guys like Nick Schmidt, Tim Stauffer, and Matt Bush speak much much louder than Tate’s run of bad luck. Additionally, Tate has been mentioned as having spectacular makeup, so I doubt this is something that long term will be a bother to his career and the chances he meets or exceeds his projections…
Keyvius Sampson thoughts?
Great value pick by the Padres.
Long term bullpen guy or quality 3 or 4 SP?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
starter
saw him in a showcase and he looks like a potential 3 pitch guy to me. Fastball sat 91-92 and he has a very good breaking ball for his age. He wasn’t afraid to throw a change and while it wasn’t great, the fact he feels comfortable enough to even throw it puts him ahead of 99% of high schoolers
+1
One of the best curveballs in last year’s prep class. I also see him as a starter.
http://www.examiner.com/x-28775-MLB-Draft-Examiner
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 3, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
I'll be the one that says he's a reliever.
But a very good one. For me, it’s not about the quality of the pitches, it’s about the ability to last 6+ innings. He won’t be able to get out guys going through an order a 3rd or 4th time if his stuff degrades from being tired.
I was able to snag him
In a fantasy draft at 37th overall. I’m very confident in the bat, and I hope the experience comes. It sounds like he has a very good chance to move quickly as he gains experience.
Plus Bat, Plus Power, Plus Athleticism seems like a strong prospect to me.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
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Pads
Their system seems to have gotten a whole lot better in a short period of time. Two years ago during a Spring Training game me and a group of other Dback season ticket fans commented on how we could at least count on the Pads being behind us in the future because their system sucked. Now they are light years ahead of us in far as minor league talent. Guys like Keyvious Sampson don’t even crack their top ten but would maybe be top 5-6 guy for us. Someone like Dexter Carter is neglated to “sleeper” role in their system but would probably be our #10 guy
agreed good depth and some mixture of talent profiles
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My favorite...
sleeper in the pads’ system is former first round pick Craig Italiano. He was absolutely ridiculous once he moved to the ’pen last year.
Man
Tate at #1?
We don’t even know if he can hit.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
It's almost like BA is relying heavily on scouting.
Which would be weird.
they did just pay him 6.5 million
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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I love how the only place they can put him amongst the "best tools" is "athlete".
Yeah, I doubt anybody’s denying that. The dude is definitely an athletic son of a bitch. Can he hit for average? Get on base? Hit for power? Show good plate discipline? LOL DUNNO!
(Yes, I did notice he’s also “best defensive outfielder”, not that it’s saying much.)
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 4, 2009 1:44 AM EST up reply actions
I glanced too quickly...
and thought it had Tate for best father.
Tate
He does project to be a 5 tool player, though I question how quickly the pitch recognition will come. Personally, I wouldn’t have taken him 3rd overall because he is so raw.
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I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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The truth is, you really have no idea how raw he is.
But we’ll see before too long.
indeed
While he’s not polished, in this day and age, teams don’t spend $6+ million on a guy who has absolutely no clue how to play baseball.
As I’ve mentioned before, I really don’t think it’s a coincidence that the “Tate is an uber-raw bust waiting to happen” talk started right around the same time that his signing bonus demands became known. It’s pretty obvious that there are a LOT of teams that really like the guy . . .but maybe they don’t like him to the tune of $6 million (which is completely their right). I tend to think that this was a negotiating ploy gone amok as it ran into groupthink.
I wouldn’t be surprised if his development ends up looking a lot like Grady Sizemore’s. That might not excite people in the short-term (which is unfortunate on this site where instant gratification reigns supreme).
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