Chicago Cubs Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Dec 29, 2009 9:02 PM EST
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PrintTop 20 Chicago Cubs Prospects for 2010
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Starlin Castro, SS, Grade B+: He needs a consolidation season and may struggle if rushed, but overall I like the balance of offensive and defensive potential he brings. He's been overhyped in the prospect press to some extent, but I like him.
2) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+: Borderline B. A very tough player to grade. I really hate the low walk rate, but the strikeout rate is also low and he's still very young at age 20. I'll cut him some slack as a result.
3) Brett Jackson, OF, Grade B: Awesome tools stand out, but I'm still concerned about his contact rate and how that will work at higher levels.
4) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B: A personal favorite, athletic pitcher with very good stuff, will need another year in the high minors.
5) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Grade B: Most scouts prefer him to Jackson. I love his stuff, but I still think he's better-suited to relief than starting,
6) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Grade B: Fast, gets on base, should hit for average. His glove is good enough that the Cubs have mentioned moving Castro to second base, which tells you something about Lee since Castro has a potentially great glove.
7) Chris Carpenter, RHP, Grade B-: Like Cashner and Jackson, a college pitcher with very good/great stuff. Command can wobble and injury history still concerns me enough to preclude higher grade, but he could be a big surprise to people not paying attention.
8) Kyler "Killer" Burke, OF, Grade B-: Why doesn't this guy get more attention? He's younger than Brett Jackson, has good tools of his own, and raked in the Midwest League. He was repeating the level but is still young.
9) Ryan Flaherty, INF, Grade B-: He's a solid hitter, but I don't think he'll be a star. Might get lost in the shuffle amidst the flashier infield gloves in this system. Trade bait?
10) D.J. LeMahieu, INF, Grade C+: Similar to Flaherty: should be a solid player but might get lost in the shuffle. Less power than Flaherty but more of a pure hitter type.
11) Brooks Raley, LHP, Grade C+: Athletic two-way guy out of Texas A&M, I like this type of player a lot. If his velocity picks up a bit now that he's a full-time pitcher, he could move fast.
12) Logan Watkins, 2B, Grade C+: Ranked seventh on the Baseball America list. I like Watkins, but want to see how his bat plays out at higher levels. Big-time athleticism, speed with some on-base ability.
13) Esmailin Caridad, RHP, Grade C+: Pitched great in major league bullpen action, and there's a decent chance that will continue.
14) Blake Parker, RHP, Grade C+: Overlooked pitcher, has a good arm, gets grounders, nothing left to prove after good Triple-A season. If he can sharpen his command a bit more, could be a surprise major league contributor in '10.
15) John Gaub, LHP, Grade C+: Another guy who could help in the bullpen in 2010. Command is an issue but great K/IP ratios and low hittability stand out.
16) Matt Spencer, OF-1B, Grade C+: Power bat from the left side acquired in trade with Oakland. Has some Garrett Jonesish surprise contributor potential.
17) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 12th depending on how you want to handle grades on guys coming back from Tommy John. If he recovers fully he should be in the top ten next year.
18) Casey Coleman, RHP, Grade C+: His component numbers in Double-A aren't great, mediocre strikeout rate, but he eats innings and there is something I like about him instinctively. Possible fourth starter.
19) Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade C: He made some progress last year but looks more like a fourth outfielder/extra bat than a future starter to me.
20) Jeff Beliveau, LHP, Grade C: Tremendous K/IP ratio at Peoria, and he cut his walk rate in half compared to college ball in '08. If he continues that trend, could breakthrough in '10.
OTHERS: (Grade C): James Adduci, OF; Jeff Antigua, LHP; Chris Archer, RHP; Darwin Barney, SS; Justin Bristow, RHP; David Cales, RHP; Welington Castillo, C; Rafael Dolis, RHP; Brandon Guyer, OF; Chris Huseby, RHP; Austin Kirk, LHP; Scott Maine, LHP; Trey McNutt, RHP; Mike Parisi, RHP; Chris Rusin, LHP; James Russell, LHP; Ryan Searle, RHP; Tony Thomas, 2B.
Space limits are forcing me to cut back now...I've been doing 40 players per team but I'm going to have to cut that back to 38 or 37, which means some players I've already written up for other teams are going to have to get cut.
The Cubs system has more depth than is commonly realized, particularly up the middle. Castro took a huge leap forward this year. He'll need some consolidation time, and I hope they are wise enough to give it to him, but at worst he should be a good major league regular and he could end up as a star. Brett Jackson also has star potential, but I still have some concerns about his strike zone judgment and want to see him at higher levels before completely buying into the maximum projections. Josh Vitters is a weird case; I posted his full comment in the Cubs player list thread on the blog. I don't want to be a fundamentalist about his low walk rate, but 12 walks for an entire season is pretty ridiculous. It helps that he doesn't strike out much, and because of his age I'm willing to be patient, no pun intended, for awhile longer. Guys like Lee, Flaherty, Watkins, and LeMahieu give them plenty of options up the middle to go along with Castro. Kyler Burke is the big sleeper in this system and I'm not sure why he doesn't get more attention.
The pitching staff has intriguing depth in live arms. Jackson, Cashner, and Carpenter all bring plus stuff to the mound and all could help in the second half of 2010 or in 2011. There are several guys who can help in the bullpen soon: Caridad, Parker, and Gaub are all ready or close to ready, and there are other live arms beyond them. Beliveau and Chris Archer showed live arms at Peoria last year and both could take huge steps forward if their command makes more progress. I highlighted Beliveau on the Top 20 list because he's a lefty and has received less attention, but you could slot Archer in there if you like.
The Cubs have spent a lot of money in Asia but don't have much to show for it on this list yet. That may change once we get some performance data in 2010. They could use some additional power bats. New acquisition Matt Spencer can help in that department. I didn't write about Peoria first baseman Rebel Ridling for space reasons as he turns 24 in May, but there is a chance he could be a useful bat.
Randy Wells never got much press as a prospect and he won 12 games last year. Keep that in mind the next time you are tempted to think that prospecting is anything approaching a science.
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Burke
I think John answered his own question about Burke:
He was repeating the level
Plus: He’s 21, which isn’t all THAT young for low-A, and it was his first good minor league season. On the plus side, he doubled his walk total and cut his strikeouts again. Despite that, I think B- is too high; I’d be conservative until we see what happens at Daytona.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/
wasn't this Burke's third go at the Midwest League?
I’m inclined to give him something of a pass as he hit well and showed some good tools, and last year would have been his junior season of college anyways.
yes
that said, he was pushed up to Low A by San Diego. I mean, it wasn’t that bad of a rush, but it was a tiny bit. The Cubs pushed him back to shortseason when they got him, which was probably more appropriate.
But yes, it was his 3rd go around in the MWL.
Without much to say, in the “prospects that matter right now” category (to me, I look at the B- or better types more extensively) I think you did an excellent job. While I think Chris Carpenter really helped to silence some doubters last year, I still think you’d like to see another solid season with better command before going higher than a B-.
I think a B- is the RIGHT grade for Burke. High BABIP, though still a lot to like there.
I think I might be a bit more cautious with Vitters and go with that B, but it’s really just nitpicking.
Regarding the write-ups that will be cut from the book
Can you post those after the top 20s are completed?
Vitters.
I just can’t believe how down ppl are on this kid. He mashed in the Midwest League as a 19 year old. He made adjustments and answered doubts about his power coming into this year turning 2B into HR. He struggled at High A but it was such a limited sample size and only had a .258 BABIP.
The kid just turned 20 and gets down graded because he makes such easy contact. Does he need to work on his PD? Sure but it’s not as much work as what ppl are making it out to be. He needs to just work counts a bit better and learn to lay off the pitchers pitch. That is something that is gonna come w/ expierence. He’s shown that he knows how to make adjustments and gets high grades for work ethic and a willingness to learn. It’s not like his PD is Engle Beltre bad. If he had SO in the hundreds I’d be worried. He will never walk a lot but he can put up an offensive profile something along the lines Pablo Sandoval or Howie Kendrick (w/ better power).
I think this is a typical case of ppl getting 2 down on a guy as soon as he doesn’t fall into what others think he should be doing. PPL have no patience but the simple fact is he’s on schedule, age appropriate, and still learning the nuances of hitting which I might add is what the minors are for in case some ppl have forgotten.
You are ignoring the longest laundry list in history of players who simply couldn’t “learn” how to take a walk..
agreed. Some Cubs fans have taken my comments on Vitters as meaning that I am down on him. I’m not, but discipline isn’t something that can be picked up with the blink of an eye. He has to show that development. I think he’s still a top 40-60 prospect in the game, though.
Way to take 2 bland statements....
……1)“You are ignoring the longest laundry list in history of players who simply couldn’t "learn" how to take a walk..”
2)" but discipline isn’t something that can be picked up with the blink of an eye."…..
……..and apply it to Vitters and call it a day.
Don’t get me wrong he needs to work on it but things are not as bleak as what ppl are trying to make it out to be. PPL are overreacting imo. Let’s be patient w/ a just turned 20 year old kid who is supremley talented. It’s not like he hit 220 w/ 120 k’s as a 22 year old in A ball.
John Nailed it
I think John graded him well. It’s not HIS grade that I was talking about.
I didn't call it a day
Geesh, I didn’t think I needed to rehash my concerns about Vitters in every single post I write. But okay
a) For all the talk about his dominance in MWL, he wasn’t consistently dominant. He had one torried stretch in the middle of May. He was good the rest of the time.
b) It isn’t specifically the walks that bother me. It’s the lack of pitches he sees. 3.2/3.3 is bad, no matter what level you are at.
c) His defense has some concerns that has been noted numerous times. If you watch him play, he can get sloppy a bit with his fielding mechanics. This could be an issue that corrects itself. His arm is a bit scattershot as well.
d) Everyone knows his raw power. But if he can’t fix things on the discipline side, considering his swing, there have been some that have questioned how his power will play as he moves up (there were a few blurbs about that this summer, I think BA, but I’m not certain).
And in saying all that, I’ve also argued that a B+ is a perfectly defensible grade below, even though I don’t have him as a B+. I’ve also said that he’s a top 40-60 prospect. So … how is that calling it a day, and how am I being bleak on him?
btw
here’s a link for the 3.2/3.3 p/pa in case you have questions about where I got that from. I know some folks have issues with Churchill, but I don’t think he’d make up something like that.
ugh, this irks me
as much as stuff online can irk me. simply because I have questions about a Cubs prospect … somehow I get lumped into being bleak and calling it a day on him? I’ll say this – I’ll be the happiest guy if Vitters flourishes. That means the Cubs have gotten a good player. Watching him and it’s so easy to wonder why scouts loved his swing that draft year.
Toons
Let me start off by saying I enjoy reading your posts and your 1 of the more well informed ppl I come across on here and on the BCB. I like reading your stuff because there is always food for thought and a well thought out posts and responses. I was being sacrcastic above which really isn’t how I should respond. Your right your not knocking Vitters like many others.
Vitters PPPA is very low no doubt but it will come a long way by just learning to lay off the pitches pitch early in the count and waiting on something he can drive. 2 me that isn’t as hard to fix as say he was striking out a ton.
I’ll respond here to what you wrote down below saying this:
" I forgot who I was chatting about with this, but someone on this board seemed to take offense last week when I suggested that we’ve got to wait and see how Lee physically matures."
This was me when we were having the Lin/Lee debate. I wasn’t taking offense to you saying we need to see how Lee fills out. It was that you were making assumtions based on Lee filling out and becoming much slower because possibly american food. 1st my point was Lee’s frame is not 1 that is gonna get thicker. He may very well add 20-30 like you suggested but his frame is not gonna get thick as say Castro’s will. Lee doesn’t have the frame to be thick and slow down and making those assumptions were doing yourself a disservice. Also the fact that you said you thought Lee was gonna end up in CF was just baseless and had 0 value in our argument. I have NEVER seen anything that said Lee would end up in CF. It’s things like those 2 points that are often thrown out w/ no fact to back it up that just irritate me.
Just to add to what Toonster said, I have no problem with Josh Vitters being on a top 100 list, but I’ve just seen many a prospect who haven’t been able to develop the necessary plate discipline to move from middle/bottom of the top 100 to elite. Remember, it’s just not a matter of laying off pitches earlier in the count. That puts more pressure on him later int he bat, which should still see swings at pitches out of the zone and also more strikeouts.
What he really needs to do is swing at the pitches he can actually do something with only, and not everything he can reach..
Well..
With a hitter who can make such easy contact on anything reachable becomes more selective, it’s going to work in his favor most of the time.
Sure, there will be times when he’ll still end up swinging at reachable balls out of the zone, but the more pitches any hitter sees in an AB, the more likely the pitcher is to make a mistake. If a mistake is made early, Vitters has shown he can take advantage of that already…he can probably just benefit from approaching each at bat with a smaller zone and just expanding it as he gets deeper into the count.
He might now walk much more, but shouldn’t really K much more either…and he should be able to make much better contact on a regular basis. Then again, the more pitches he begins to see per at bat, could help develop his eye/discipline as well. That’s assuming, however, he can even develop a better approach in general….which he still has time to do at least.
quick response
but I don’t plan on rehashing everything. Let’s leave the Lin aspect out of this thread.
a) I never said I thought Lee would be much slower. That makes it sound like I said he’d go from plus to a tortoise. I distinctly remember my last comment was that I thought he likely would still have plus speed, but that I thought, and still believe, that Lin has/will have better speed when they are both at their peak physical capabilities.
b) The CF thing has been tossed out there before. I’ll just leave it at that. I know others have suggested it as a possibility and that I’m not the only one that has pondered this. AzPhil for one, although I can’t find the link at the moment. I tried a quick search on TCR, but can’t find it right now and can’t spend much more time looking for it. Now, many have pondered it due to Castro being above, so there is that to factor in. Moving on though …
c) Frame issues. I’m still better at assessing NFL prospects on frame than I am on MLB, but several things I would point out on this, and in regards to speed.
i) Lee has a skinny upper body. Look at his lower body, though. This isn’t the skinny guy that you are suggesting in that regards. After all these years of following different drafts, it’s still a bit odd for me to say this, but he’s got a well-built lower body. First off, the 6’2" 170 that’s often used was supposedly a high school weight. He’s been around 6’2" 185-190, and he’s still likely to put on weight (I’m pretty sure that’s the weight that he was supposedly at this past year in Boise, if not a tinge higher). Almost everyone would acknowledge that he’s going to add weight to the upper body, simply by growing up. If he adds more weight to the lower body, that’s something to watch. Again … if you haven’t seen him, I’m sure there’s stuff online from this past year. Look at the lower body. Look at the proportions. Look at, for lack of a better word, the ass and the waist. Frame assessment is a very inexact effort, and there are those that are far better than I am at it, but there are indicators to look for physically. He wasn’t a skinny lower body guy this past year (which makes his speed all the more impressive because that means his raw speed, combined with his technique, makes him a dangerous game speed guy).
ii) Physical maturation. Too often we speak of physical maturation in the strictest, most limiting terms – in terms of weight added. The thing is, physical maturation is far more than that. Now, it’s funny for me to type this, as I haven’t been in peak shape since my high school days. That said, physical maturation also deals with how an individual responds to his body. I don’t know how old you are, so it’s hard for me to ask a comparison. But the basic comparison is always this – a kid growing up and adjusting to weight work takes time to adjust to his new body. As most of us don’t end up in sports, many don’t really deal with the adjustment that an athlete goes through.
d) The arm. Every single report I’ve read suggests that he’s lost some arm strength. That’s an issue to watch in regards to his ability to stick at short as he gets older. At one point, he had a plus arm. He still has an above average arm probably, but it is a concern.
My general point on Lee is this – let’s wait and see before jumping to conclusions. It’s the same thing with Castro. Both of these kids will physically mature. I hope to heck we got one shortstop somewhere in there and don’t have to turn to darwin barney (who could probably start for some clubs in the majors, but doesn’t have the upside). I believe there are enough concerns to pay attention to. I didn’t say he would definitely end up at CF … at least, I don’t mean to suggest that (I don’t think I said definitely). I do believe there are enough concerns that we shouldn’t be assuming anything at the moment, and I do believe the the physical frame is something to watch on Lee as he matures.
okay
I realize that wasn’t a quick response in terms of length …
very interesting list
and for the most part, I really like it John. Actually, don’t take this the wrong way, but in my years of following your lists, I think this is the best Cubs edition that you’ve done.
That said, some questions -
Jeff Antigua – Lefty arm with above average pitches and has decent velocity. Velocity wasn’t as good as anticipated, but it was high 80’s/low 90’s, and has tad of a chance to be better. I have him as a C+, but I can understand C that this isn’t something I am complaining about, but more curious on thought process. Is this a case where you simply want to see more in full-season before judging him?
Chris Archer – This one was a tad surprising. Velocity wasn’t as good as Indians sites suggested, but he still ran a solid low 90’s fb with good secondary option. Control issues, some mechanical things that need to be tweaked, but the upside is intriguing. I also have him at C+, but again,not one I’d complain about. Is this a case of
a) Repeating a level
b) concern that he may end up in bp?
Ryan Searle – A tad surprised that you didn’t go C+ here either, but again, not one I’d complain over. That said, young arm, still has room to grow, a very solid 2-seamer, and improving secondary pitches. Had a relatively successful season in A+ considering how he was pushed. Sure, some character concerns, but I think those are more concerns of youth than anything.
Chris Huseby – I actually have him as a C/C+ (leaning C), but I am curious on your thoughts here. Low 90’s fb with 2 good secondary offerings. I really hope the Cubs try him as a starter again, as I think his pen profile is more of a setup variety.
Pretty deep system. Hendry's doing something right.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 29, 2009 10:17 PM EST reply actions
Haha
His work on the minor league rosters has balanced out some of his very poor decisions on the major league roster.
Of course until Hendry trades them away, of course.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
I'm hoping the A's can get one or two of these prospects for Coco Crisp in July when the Cubs are desperate for a CF
They’ll probably sign Byrd and make this idea moot, but I can dream.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
very surprised vitters is a B+
would 100% make him no better than a B
I think there's a decent case for B+
I would lean to B myself, for reasons I’ve noted.
That said, I think a B+ is defensible, although it’s largely upside based
a) there is a good batch of individuals that buy his defense as being able to stick at 3rd.
b) He doesn’t go up swinging for power … but has so much raw power that he doesn’t have to.
c) This isn’t a guy without any judgment. He’s an aggressive hitter. You aren’t searching to redo everything about him, but rather to find some balance b/w discipline and aggressiveness.
d) While he didn’t have consistent dominance in Peoria, he was good in April and had some bad luck in June.
e) Considering his age, he still had a solid year and, for me, the only thing this year showed was that he wasn’t an elite prospect that was going to rush up fast.
That said, I personally lean a B, with him as the 3rd prospect in my own list (was tempted to put him 4th, behind Jay Jackson, but ended up sticking with Vitters upside over Jay for now).
John, brevity is the soul of wit!
Space limits are forcing me to cut back now…I’ve been doing 40 players per team but I’m going to have to cut that back to 38 or 37, which means some players I’ve already written up for other teams are going to have to get cut.
I kid, I kid.
This system is better than I thought, though I still don’t like Vitters at all.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 29, 2009 10:22 PM EST reply actions
Other thoughts
Brett Jackson – I actually have him ahead of Vitters, as the 2nd prospect, but both as B’s. I liked the pick, but I think he’s got a tad overhyped this fall/winter. That said, he is arguably the Cubs only 5-tool prospect. I think, in his favor in regards to concerns on strikeouts, is the fact that there were positive comments in regards to his ability to play situational offense and utilize the bat in different ways.
I posted my Vitters comments in the other thread. I would lean B, due to the fact that he doesn’t see many pitches, that his dominance in Peoria was really only limited to a month (he was solid in April, had some bad luck in June, but only inMay was he dominant), injuries, defensive concerns. That said, the upside is still high, so I can understand B+.
A tad surprised you went B for Lee and B- for Carpenter. I have it flipped, although I could see both as B’s … or both as B-’s.
I would’ve been in the camp of putting Rhee higher, as his potential is arguably top 5 or so in the system, but the position is understandable as he has to show he’s back. Fine with the grade, though.
I really applaud the Burke grade. Ba frustrated me with their Burke comments. I can udnerstand some apprehension on him, but if he has a big year next year, he’s going to zoom up the boards … and fast. Granted, has to have that big year.
Overall, I think most Cubs fans are really pleased with the direction of the system. There’s a lot of Cubs fans that are still a bit cautious, with the recent poor history of the Cubs system. That said, the difference between a bad system and a solid one isn’t much, and the 2008 draft brought in several arms that have paid dividends. I’m very pleased with Tim Wilken’s 08 draft, and 09 is intriguing enough for me. He seems to have taken to trying to find collegians with higher projectability than his past (and compared to some other scouting director types). There seems to be a high risk factor in that effort, but if he’s successful, it could really pay dividends.
I am concerned about the lack of power prospects in the system, although Vitters/Burke/Brett Jackson are three solid power guys. I am pleased with the Cubs international signings process. I like our aggressiveness in Asia, and how we spread the money around. Sure, there are times when I’d like to see a big name Latin American signing, and we still dip in there for a moderate signing once in awhile, but I like the balanced approach. I like that the Cubs are actively looking for athletes at all positions, and I like the up-the-middle focus. Oddly, despite the Cubs history, this is a more positional laden system at the moment, and after the big three, there’s a bit of a drop off on the pitching side, so that might be where the focus lies next offseason.
Rhee
I think people are forgetting about him.
John
Any chance of seeing Jay Jackson’s full comment in your next batch of sample comments?
He’s a personal favourite of mine also.
http://twitter.com/FutureSox
Just asking but have you done the Rays yet?
the question master
by thedudeofdudes on Dec 29, 2009 10:59 PM EST reply actions
John
I’m not sure how Vitters gets cut slack and a B+, while Moustakas had his grade cut!? To me, Vitters hit well in Low A, but struggled in High A. Moose performed pretty admirably in High A in comparison.
didn't John have some concerns about Moustakas'
body? Or was that another player?
not sure
buy both BA and BP commented that his defense improved this year.
by MightyMoose on Dec 29, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
nvm
I looked at John’s Royals list again.
Personal opinion is that both guys are B’s and we’ve got to wait another year to get a better picture on both guys. That said, some Cubs fans might accuse me of being bleak for some reason. But yeah, I agree, I don’t see why Vitters should be a half grade ahead of Moustakas.
Mauling Mongoose
The Mauling Mongoose will do allright but for now Vitters is better.
Vitters vs Moustakas
I know that they were in the same draft, but could the fact Vitters almost a full year younger than Moustakas have to do with their grades possibly?
perhaps
I’m not the best person to answer age questions, though, as I think ARL is useful, but a bit overused at times. I’m not sure there’s a big enough difference that results from that year, but I could see somehow factoring it in.
Lee and Castro
I’m wondering if I’m the only one who feels Lee will actually be the better SS. Either with the cubs or elsewhere.
I think a lot of people think Lee may be better
He’s more fluid at short. Castro probably has the better arm. I’ve heard mixed reports on his arm. It’s good, but some have said it’s not a plus arm. I really want to see how Lee fills out, though. I forgot who I was chatting about with this, but someone on this board seemed to take offense last week when I suggested that we’ve got to wait and see how Lee physically matures. Right now, he projects better, but he’s going to add some weight, and we have to see how he adjusts to the physical maturation. I do think he may end up being the better defensive shortstop.
probably
There’s been no indications that he’s going to be pushed. Then again, there were minimal indications that Castro would be pushed, but with enough MI depth and Flaherty/LeMahieu/Samson and others to fill in the AA/A+ ranks, there isn’t a glaring enough hole to justify pushing Lee anyways. Also, he had a good rapport with Watkins.
lee
i’ve seen his speed described as plus-plus. is this accurate ? i’m not sure he will not end up being more valuable than castro.
valuable
is a different equation. I think he could be better defensively, but if Castro’s bat develops as some suggest it can, that might give him value that can’t be matched. As for his speed, yeah, right now, it’s plus-plus.
A side note
toonsterwu, I really appreciate the information on all of minor league players especially in the Cub system. Do you travel a bit to see the players for your evaluations? Just curious. Thanks again.
I didn't mak it to as many games
as I would’ve liked this year. Life and all that crap. That said, I really want to emphasize. I’m just a fan. There are far more knowledgeable people in this thread than me. I’m going to be dead wrong on many guys.
Speed
That is indeed accurate. Lee’s speed is quite usable on the basepaths, as he showed fantastic speed when bunting and stealing bases. He’s probably the second fastest runner in the system, behind Jose Valdez.
by Outshined_One on Dec 30, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
I am in that camp
Lee’s speed is, by all accounts, a “plus plus” tool. Lee’s D has also been very highly regarded.
Castro has no “plus-plus” tools, other than maybe contact. I can definitely see Lee ending up being a better asset to the Cubs organization than Castro.
In terms of projecting how Lee and Castro will likely develop, I think it comes down to what you would value more in a hitter. Lee will probably never hit for much power, but his speed will help make up for his deficiencies. Castro, on the other hand, will probably be the better slugger, although I wouldn’t discount Castro’s speed in comparison to Lee.
by Outshined_One on Dec 30, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
True, but
My issue is I don’t see power coming for Castro. Scouting opinion seems to be mixed whether he ever hits more than 10 – 15 HRs a year.
Also, Castro’s speed seems to be an average to slightly above-average tool.
Castro will be a solid MLB regular, but I just don’t see a future star here.
Power’s not just about HRs, although those play an important role in that determination. It’s about extra base hits. Where Castro might never hit more than 10-15 HRs in a year, Lee might be lucky if he ends up being a 5-10 HR player. Add Castro’s additional extra base hits as a result of his power and I think there would be a clear disparity between the two.
In fairness, projecting for power has always been an inexact science. However, in terms of comparing both players’ raw tools and projections, Lee’s power will probably end up being well below average, whereas Castro will likely end up being roughly average or a tick above/tick below average.
by Outshined_One on Dec 30, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Really love the Jay Jackson placement
Relative to putting him over Cashner. I think Jay’s got a better shot to be a starter, so that’s the main motivation for me, but what seemingly is lost in the discussion at times is that, while Cashner could be an elite pen arm, Jay could be a pretty good late inning arm with his potential mid-upper 90’s fb (he’s yanked it up a couple notches in short stints before) and his breaking balls.
Now, if Cashner shows the ability to carry his stuff later into games, then he’d go ahead if he could stick as a starter, as his potential/ceiling is higher with his stuff.
mota
Not sure if you do guys in the DSL, but was curious about your thoughts on Arismendy Mota.
dsl
I don’t look much at DSL guys. Not enough room or time.
by John Sickels on Dec 30, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
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