Which of these three pitchers?
by pooleboy on Dec 27, 2009 5:15 PM EST
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If you could add Trevor Cahill, Mat Latos or Chris Tillman to your team for the next decade which would you choose? Take into account their home ballpark, the division they play in with the goal of ending up wih the pitcher with the best ERA, H/IP and BB/K ratios over the long term. Don't take into account win loss records, but consider other factors such as durability chance of being overworked, etc.
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latos...
plays in the NL compared to AL for the other 2 and gets to pitch half his games in Petco park and another few in dodger stadium and SF… thus his ERA, H/IP and BB/W will probably be better then those two also
bad machanics
latos will not be healthy at this time next year. or the year after. etc.
Yeah I like Cahill
but he’s not quite in the same class as these 2 guys.
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
tillman
over latos…but not by much…i was never a cahill fan to start with and dont think he will be able to be a good fantasy option at all with his low k totals (i assume it is for fantasy purposes)
I seriously doubt Cahill's K totals stay low
He struck out tons of guys in the minors. His struggles were because he was aggressively promoted to the majors and in over his head. People are putting way, way too much emphasis on his lack of Ks and its not a valid point at all IMO. In 2008 he struck out 136 guys in 124 IP over A+ and AA. He WILL strike guys out. Kid never pitched in AAA!
I just really cant believe how many times Ive seen this mentioned. Why do people still fall into this simple pitfall? What rookie pitchers are finished projects? Why do we think we can take a guy’s performance as a 21 year old rookie pitchers and project his peripherals out from that? Its crazy.
im def. not a scout
but i watched A LOT of his games last season on the MLB package and he just didnt generate a lot of swing and misses, just didnt seem to have swing and miss stuff…of course i understand that he was young and will improve, but i dont ever see him coming close to a K an inning in the bigs like he did in the minors…thats all im sayin
He didn't throw his curveball last year
He was basically just throwing a 2-seam and a changeup last year.
I voted for Latos, but I still expect big things from Cahill.
correct,
according to fangraphs, Cahill only threw his knuckle-curve 2.7% of the time. I’ve read numerous places that it’s his best pitch, so I assume the A’s wanted him to work on his fastball and changeup command during his rookie season.
I fully expect Cahill to fulfill his #2 starter potential once he’s let off the leash.
I didnt say a K an inning
I just dont foresee K’s being an issue for him. I did downgrade him despite ARL and all the other mitigating factors because his stuff wasnt particularly impressive, but Im still a big believer in him being an above average pitcher with upside.
Why does nobody
make a big deal about Porcello’s low K rate but jump all over Cahill’s?
Cahill: 11.6% K in 178 2/3 innings
Porcello: 12.4% K in 170 2/3 innings
Now I’m not trying to make a case for Cahill here, as his K rate will need to significantly improve for him to be a consistent and effective starter, but I rarely see people mentioning Porcello’s as a concern.
Because they look at more than k-rate
Porcello walked fewer batters per nine innings (2.74 v 3.63 ) and induced significantly more ground balls (54.2% v 47.8%). I don’t think too many people are projecting Porcello to be a star but they are projecting a solid mid-rotation starter, which is doable with good control and a lot of ground balls even without a lot of strikeouts.
Cahill struggled with control and was merely average inducing ground balls. That combined with low strikeouts is a bad combination. He may still yet improve but I suspect he’ll need the third pitch he abandoned (knuckle-curve).
How the mighty have fallen
I still like Cahill quite a bit, and let’s not forget how he was rushed to the majors. Have faith community. The k rate will rise. His and Porcello’s are both acknowledged as rates non-indicative of their future strikeout rate, in my opinion
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Bill James disagrees
In the 2009 handbook James makes the point specifically on Porcello, that initial MLB K rates historically do not significantly increase. When they do it is usually per the addition of a new weapon (i.e add a split finger fastball) and then goes on to point out that such “new additions” trigger arm injuries with a few years.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
Tillman
And if his changeup comes a long he is way above them
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 28, 2009 12:29 PM EST reply actions
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