Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2009 6:26 PM EST
75 comments
Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects for 2010
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Dee Gordon, SS, Grade B+: Terrific '09 season in the Midwest League. Tremendous tools, especially speed, but needs to polish defense. Plate discipline at higher levels may also be an issue, but overall I love this guy.
2) Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade B+: Needs to improve his command, but stuff is excellent and he was rather inexperienced for the California League. If he lowers the walks and stays healthy, has number one/two potential, but they really need to give him time to sharpen his control and gain experience.
3) Ethan Martin, RHP, Grade B: Similar to Withrow: great fastball/curveball combo, has dominance potential but needs to sharpen control.
4) Aaron Miller, LHP, Grade B: Ceiling isn't quite as high as Martin and Withrow, but I like his combination of athleticism, stuff, and better-than-anticipated pitchability.
5) Josh Lindblom, RHP, Grade B: Hard sinking fastball/curveball combo should work very well in relief, could be a closer eventually.
6) Scott Elbert, LHP, Grade B-: Power lefty stuff is very attractive, but command and durability issues keep him from a higher grade in my opinion. Dodgers fans are really in love with him.
7) Andrew Lambo, OF, Grade B-: I think he's better than he looked last year, doesn't turn 22 until August, could put up huge numbers in Albuquerque thin air. I don't think he'll be a star but I can see him as a solid player. People were too enthusiastic about him entering '09 and are probably too negative entering '10.
8) Garrett Gould, RHP, Grade B-: Hard-throwing athletic high school pitcher could follow in the footsteps of Withrow and Martin.
9) Ivan DeJesus, Jr, SS, Grade B-: Down one notch due to lost injury season, will have to see how the recovery goes, won't stand in Gordon's way in the long run but should have a good career.
10) Allen Webster, RHP, Grade C+: Another high-ceiling young arm, greatly improved his command in 2009.
11) Trayvon Robinson, OF, Grade C+: Toolsy outfielder had breakthrough season repeating the California League. Want to see him repeat this against better competition before I buy in completely.
12) Kenley Jansen, RHP, Grade C+: Catcher conversion drawing notice this fall/winter with 8527 MPH fastball. Not really, but you'd expect that given the hype he's already getting. Let's see if he can throw strikes.
13) Nate Eovaldi, RHP, Grade C+: Dodgers fans like him a lot more than this, but his performance has not lived up to scouting reports yet. Command issues hold him back from higher ranking for me.
14) Kyle Russell, OF, Grade C+: Loads of power, can steal a base, draws walks, also struck out 180 times as a college player in the Midwest League. Left-handed-hitting Rob Deer?
15) Brett Wallach, RHP, Grade C+: The Dodgers love bloodlines. I like the scouting reports about Wallach but we need a larger sample size.
16) Jonathan Garcia, OF, Grade C+: Toolsy outfielder from Puerto Rico did well in the Arizona Rookie League, showing more polish than expected, though he'll need to show plate discipline at higher levels.
17) Lucas May, C, Grade C: Made progress with the bat, but he was repeating the level and defense is still an issue with 20 passed balls in 65 games.
18) Xavier Paul, OF, Grade C: Season ruined by injuries. I still think he can be a solid fourth/fifth outfielder.
19) Tony Delmonico, C, Grade C: I like his bat, but he needs more work behind the plate.
20) Pedro Baez, 3B, Grade C: Still has the impressive power potential, but lots of problems with the strike zone.
OTHERS (Grade C): Geison Aguasviva, LHP; Steven Ames, RHP; Brian Cavasos-Galvez, OF; Danny Danielson, RHP; John Ely, RHP; Roberto Feliciano, LHP; Carlos Frias (a sleeper!), RHP; Austin Gallagher, 1B-3B; Javy Guerra, RHP; John Link, RHP; Carlos Monasteros, RHP; Jon Michael Redding, RHP; Jerry Sands, OF-1B; Travis Schlichting, RHP; Tim Sexton, RHP; Angelo Songco, OF; Cole St. Clair, LHP; Scott Van Slyke, OF; J.T. Wise; C.
The Dodgers are strong on the pitching side: Martin and Miller could both be B+ guys a year from now, maybe even an A- if their command really sharpens up. Withrow could rank as the number one prospect ahead of Dee Gordon if you prefer pitching to hitting. His ceiling is terrific, although I'd like to see his walk rate come down. He has Homer Bailey-like risk if they rush him too fast. Elbert's stuff is right up there with the other pitchers, but there are enough chinks in his armor (command, health history) to keep his grade slightly lower in my mind. I'm probably higher on Gould than some folks, but I see him in the same mold as the others if he develops properly. Other live arms such as Jansen, Eovaldi, Webster, and Wallach all have significant potential but enough doubts or lack of data right now to keep their ratings in the C+ range.
The hitters are led by the electric Dee Gordon, who will need some time to put his game together but has big upside. Possible comp: Rafael Furcal, circa 2000-2006. DeJesus doesn't have the same ceiling but still has a chance to be a very useful player if his leg is OK. I haven't given up on Lambo yet, not at age 21.
The hitting in beyond that is thin: there is a mixture of tools guys and polish guys, but they all have questionmarks of one sort of another. Adding some additional impact hitting depth for the system seems like a good idea; we'll have to see if they address that in the 2010 draft.
Trades and graduations have thinned the system out, but overall I think Logan White and his staff do a fine job and the potential for a quick recharge seems good to me.
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I'm surprised Gordon is 1 and Withrow is 2
but all in all I like the list.
I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B
than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 26, 2009 6:30 PM EST reply actions
Gordon
John,
I got to see Gordon quite a few times in Dayton this past year. I am curious as to what you see as his power potential because by looking at him I just don’t see more than 5-7 HR’s a season for him and to me that hold back his overall value a bit. Curious as to your thoughts on his power and where it goes in the future.
I'm surprised anybody's comfortable projecting Gordon's power ceiling.
He’s rail-thin, but it’s not like he’s Jimmy Rollins height-wise. He looks like what you’d get if you chopped three inches off of BJ Upton. He certainly doesn’t have a slap-hitter’s swing, so unless you think he’s maxed out his weight at 150, it seems silly to try to project his power ceiling at this point.
Weight
I think he is pretty close to maxed out in his weight to be honest. His frame is very thin. His arms are just very small and don’t appear to be able to put on much given how skinny they are. He reminds me of a 14 year old who hasn’t quite hit his growth spurt yet in terms of how his arms are. The difference of course is that Gordon is 22 and not likely to hit another growth spurt. Again, that is just me. But unless you have been within 5 feet of him, its hard to describe just how his frame is.
gordon's power
Well I suppose he could hit 10-12 eventually, but I agree, I don’t think he’ll hit more than high single digits most of the time. However, even if he hits six homers a year, if he reaches his ceiling in other ways he’ll hit .300+ with plenty of doubles, triples, steals, and a good OBP.
by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
Ceiling
So his ultimate ceiling is Brian Roberts if he never met Vic Conti? Good times for the Trolley Dodgers these days.
Eovaldi v. Gould. I figured I was the only one wh preferred the young BB slinger. Good to see that I share an opinion with the great John Sickels, as an aside.
Also, what’s the story with Cole St. Clair? I was enamored with him a year or two ago. And now? More curiousity, but I want to believe.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
furcal
I’d say if his power maxes out he could be like Furcal when Furcal was good.
by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
st clair..
some mysterious arm injury has sapped him of his velocity of his fastball… high 80s touching 90 with a great breaking ball.. could be a good loogy in the future..
by matthewmafa on Dec 26, 2009 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks
I can see him working out as a .300/.350/.425 hitter if everything goes right in his development.
Just to mention...
His father Tom is listed as an inch shorter (5’10) and currently 200lbs. You gotta think at 5’11 150-160lbs as a 22 year old, Dee will fill out some. John mentioned Furcal, a great comparison, is listed at 5’9 195lbs. So, I could see Dee hitting 12-18 HR during his power peak.
Gordon...
Will have gap power and will get lucky w/ HRs. Not Juan Pierre, but ~10 a year.
I think a better comp is Reyes than Furcal. Furcal had a little more power…
With Eovaldi, he’s 19. What do you expect? He’s gonna be raw. Hes a power arm and with the Dodger development, i expect him to be fine.
I always thought that Gould was closer to a polished product, even though he still has work to do, than Eovaldi. Either way, i think they both can be legit FOR guys…
with St Clair, he basically got old and didnt make an major progress. I think 23 in A ball…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 26, 2009 8:51 PM EST reply actions
Reyes is a 15ish homerun guy with possibly a little more power to come.
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 28, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Delmonico
19) Tony Delmonico, C, Grade C: I like his bat, but he needs more work behind the plate.
In other words, Delmonico needs some seasoning.
Thank you, you’ve been a great crowd.
Don’t forget to tip your politicians and clergymen on your way out.
Saw Jansen in AFL and he’s a beast. I can’t wait til he pitches inside in a game that counts.- his catcher could get an accessory to murder if he doesn’t restrain the hitter.
by slacker george on Dec 26, 2009 10:39 PM EST reply actions
I don’t understand the difference between Kyle Russell and Cody Johnson, except that Johnson was younger at a higher level..
russell
stay tuned on the cody johnson front. check back tomorrow.
by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
russell
Russell is more athletic than Johnson for one thing, much more defensive value.
by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
In a recent interview with DeJon Watson and Logan White, they mentioned a bunch of Dodgers prospects that should start at Double-A next year. Russell wasn’t among them, implying that he’ll probably start at High-A. For a guy who already is 24, what is the basis of taking it slow with him? Is it the strikeouts?
probably
Yeah, probably the strikeouts. 180 ks is an awful lot.
by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
..Sure, Russell is more athletic, but does it make up for being 3-4 years older and behind a level on the player? I don’t like either much…but I think they’re basically identical with different points of emphasis. You could say russell’s ceiling is a bit higher given his potential defense value, I suppose..
mine is jerry sands..
especially if he sticks in Cf… hes gonna be a beast next season..
by matthewmafa on Dec 26, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think
he’ll play anymore CF but DeJon said he is still being looked at as an outfielder first.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I Have Quite A Few Areas of Disagreement With John's List...
…but of course he is entitled to his opinions. Here is my Top 20. I don’t do the letter grade thing when I make a prospect list.
01. Scott Elbert, LHP
02. Chris Withrow, RHP
03. Andrew Lambo, OF
04. Ethan Martin, RHP
05. Allen Webster, RHP
06. Trayvon Robinson, OF
07. Dee Gordon, SS
08. Aaron Miller, LHP
09. Josh Lindblom, RHP
10. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
11. Ivan DeJesus, Jr., SS
12. Garrett Gould, RHP
13. Scott Van Slyke, OF
14. Jonathan Garcia, OF
15. Jerry Sands, OF
16. Brett Wallach, RHP
17. Carlos Frias, RHP
18. Javy Guerra, RHP
19. Xavier Paul, OF
20. Geison Aguasviva, LHP
Kenley Jansen would have been #21 if we were doing a longer list. He has so little pitching experience and these position-player-to-pitcher conversions for players already in their 20’s don’t usually work out. If this were a Top30 list Kyle Russell would have been right at #30. Older than dust for a low A player and he still struck out at a rate that goes far past alarming. I would have thought John Sickels would understand the SIGNIFICANCE of that more than less stat-inclined analysts like the folks at BA.
I love having Elbert as your number 1, but Gordon is too low I think and Russell is FAR too low. This system has as much power as a watch battery, why devalue the most powerful player we’ve got? The Jack Cust comp. is a good one and I would be thrilled if he were to reach that with his speed and above average defense.
Canuck
John has actually seen quite a few of these guys play, so I’ll go with his list. I’m glad you think he’s entitled to his opinion on his own website.
Unless He Has Said He Has Seen Any Of These Guys In His...
…material that people have to pay for (which is material I don’t buy or subscribe to), there is no reason to believe he has seen ANY of these players, let alone “quite a few” of them, like you are assuming. When John goes on his scouting trips that he talks about here, he never goes anywhere where Dodger affiliates are playing. Aside from any of the players he does see on those scouting trips, John is an armchair analyst who relies on stats and what he has read elsewhere, which is exactly what I do, but he spreads his time and attention over the minor league systems of 30 different teams while I concentrate my attention on the system of one team, the Dodgers, and rely on BA to keep me up to speed on what is going on with other team’s prospects. And frankly, people who comment on this site tell John they disagree with him all the time, and as long as they aren’t vicious about it he doesn’t seem to mind. vtadave, if you want to criticize what I actually said about Jansen or Russell, or where I ranked players, or want to question me about any of the players either Jon or I listed, go ahead. Tell me why you think I am wrong or John is right. We can discuss it in a civil manner. But if you are just here to insult me, save it.
FYI
“When John goes on his scouting trips that he talks about here, he never goes anywhere where Dodger affiliates are playing.”
This is incorrect. John sees a lot of Midwest League action, where the Dodgers have a team. And I didn’t need to be a single-system specialist to know that.
He’s also noted previously that he saw Russell play at UT. So he’s actually probably seen Kyle Russell play a whole lot more than you have, over a period of several years. And even if he hasn’t, he’s seen enough of Russell to have a well-informed opinion.
I think your words here are what would indicate your own tone is something less than civil: “I would have thought John Sickels would understand the SIGNIFICANCE of that more than less stat-inclined analysts like the folks at BA.” You’re stating your belief that John doesn’t understand what he’s talking about, and while I’ll admit that we don’t exactly have a shortage of that problem at that site, I’ve never once seen that with John. Unless you have valid reasons for your belief (you haven’t given any yet and I very much doubt that you will), you blatantly insulted the man’s ability to do his job – on his own site no less.
by mrkupe on Dec 27, 2009 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
MrKupe,
Okay, if you know that John sees Midwest League action, I stand corrected on the broader point, but I will refine it to this: I have never seen any evidence here of John watching a game with a Dodger affiliate playing. I have HOPED, for years, he would see and report on such a game. Correct me on that point if I have missed a report.
On Russell, even if he has seen him, the stat case is so against Russell that what one “sees” can be described as deceiving. Keep this in mind: scouts (real, professional scouts) really liked Dodger prospect Reggie Aberecrombie. It was the stats people who cringed at Abercrombie’s strikeout rates and pronounced Abercrombie fools’ gold. In 2001, Abercrombie and Shane Victorino were both outfielders capable of playing CF on the same Dodger affiliate, Wilmington of the South Atlantic League. Abercrombie struck out 154 times in 486 AB’s, while Victorino struck out 61 times in 435 AB’s, yet scouts who talked to the local beat reporter covering the team raved about Abercrombie and dismissed Victorino as “just a ballplayer.” And BA ranked Abercrombie above Victorino in their 2002 prospect handbook, though it was by just one place.
I took a bit of a jab at John, but it was not uncivil and it was actually a back-handed compliment. I actually did expect him to see through Russell because of his stat inclination, while scouts would be more likely to not see the negative while distracted by the good things (power, good defense, general athleticism, the same things scouts loved about Reggie Abercrombie). And I flat out reject your interpretation of my words that I “insulted” John or said he can’t do his job. Prospect analysis is not a hard science and one expects people to have different opinions about prospects.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 27, 2009 3:07 AM EST up reply actions
Haha
Exactly why John shouldn’t weigh his readers’ comments into his grades/lists.
Sure, People Should Have The Courage Of Their Convictions....
Who would respect John if all he did was hold polls of teams’ fans and let them determine his beliefs? But once you share your judgments, you’ve opened yourself to having your positions critiqued.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 27, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
Canuck – I love the confidence I Elbert, but other than being left-handed, young, and possessing of a strong k/9, there’s enough concerns (command, injury history) for me to have him a few notches down. What makes you think he can be a solid 170+ innings gu this year?
injury history??
look at the comments below…
so theres only 1 problem which is Command.. which improves over time…
he threw over 140 innings last year… what makes you think he cant do the 30 inning jump to go over 170?
Agreed 100%
The injury thing is extremely overblown. Possibly because he was the top prospect in a very talented system a few years ago and hasnt made an impact in the majors…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 27, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
vtadave...
I ranked Elbert #1 because of the combination of a reasonably high ceiling and major league-readiness. Even if one doesn’t believe he is quite ready to be a major league starter, I think it has to be admitted that he is closer than Withrow, Martin or any other pitching prospect we have.
Yes, command is a weakness with Elbert, as it is with Billz and Kershaw. I expect high walk rates from Elbert, but as with Billz and Kershaw, the high K numbers that I believe can be expected from Elbert would compensate for the control/command problems.
Can Elbert be a 170 inning guy this year? That question is going to have to be faced by any pitching prospect we transition into the major league rotation, at any time, right? You have to let the young pitcher try to reach that, and just make sure there are some back-up options, which is why teams sign the Eric Miltons and Jeff Weavers to minor league contracts and give them NRI’s to spring training.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 27, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Clearly Elbert is “closer” than both Withrow and Martin. The upside of the the three can certainly be debated, but I hope Elbert, Lindblom, McDonald, etc. are allowed to compete for a rotation spot this spring. I have to think that one of the three emerges to the point that guys like Josh Towers are deemed irrelevant this spring.
At the very least, Elbert has proven his stuff is major league ready, but hopefully we’re looking at more than a 65-innings left-handed reliever. I don’t know if he can show enough to hold down one of the 150 major league rotation slots, but I hope he at least shows enough to get that chance.
Feel free to post your comments, that is why there is a forum and comments are enabled. That wasn’t the point. The point is 99% of his readers are biased and analysts should be as free from bias as possible in my opinion. Nothing wrong with you having confidence in your team’s players but John should also have confidence in his analysis.
he does...
as long as the fan gives a good reason in the team discussion thread, he is willing to change the list. He then gives his grades based on research. However, on threads like this or ‘fanposts’ fans can say if they disagree or agree. Again, with good reason and if he agrees, he is willing to change grades(look at the post about grade disagreements/changes). Needless to say, fans do have a large part in the book, but must supply a good argument to change it.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 27, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
elbert has a durability issue??
i have only heard of one shoulder problem he had…
Gets mentioned
alot but I don’t get it. He missed one season and it was not like he had either Labrum or TJ surgery. Command issues I understand but the durability/health issue seem to be over played.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
That's Exactly Right, Matthewmafa...
In 2007, not long after the season began, Elbert had a sore shoulder. He was DL’d with the plan being that he would rest and the soreness would go away. The soreness did not go away, so exploratory shoulder surgery was ordered. The doctors did not find any tears in the labrum or rotator cuff, just some scar tissue around the labrum, which they cleaned up. From there it was just a matter of letting Elbert heal, and Elbert healed, perfectly. That is the sole extent of Elbert’s medical problems in the five and a half years since he was drafted in 2004. Nothing else. Yet what does one read all around the internet? That Elbert is “injury-prone.” That he is “fragile.” Josh Beckett had an outright labrum tear as a prospect in the Marlins system, yet that never quieted the non-stop hype machine for Beckett. Elbert must not have the same PR people. Which is NOT to say Elbert has the same talent that Beckett had as a prospect, just that there is an unequal standard for labeling prospects as injury prone or fragile.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 27, 2009 2:32 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, but...
The Dodgers themselves have shown reluctance to put Elbert in the rotation for durability reasons. That’s significant.
The Dodgers Have Been Reluctant To Put Elbert In The MLB Rotation...
…because they are always reluctant, for a while, to fully trust the young players they have. They had Billingsley relieving in his first full MLB season. Kemp, Ethier, Loney — all had to endure either more minor league time or bench time in the majors because of various broken down vets/Juan Pierre blocking them. And think about it: if the Dodgers were worried about Elbert’s durability, would the Dodgers have let him start at all in 2009? Because in the minors in 2009 Elbert did nothing but start. It was only when he was in the majors that Elbert was confined to the bullpen. And Colletti has said this off-season that the Dodger organization views Elbert as a starter prospect, not a relief prospect.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 27, 2009 6:20 AM EST up reply actions
about Billz and pitchers in general
I personally like the ‘put prospects in the pen to get their feet wet’ mentality. I simply builds confidence for the guys, or proves they arent ready.
With Elbert, for some reason, I believe they wanted to give him another year prove he was healthy and to get his arm back to the 100 inning+ mark. Remember, Elbert threw just 47 innings in 08(mostly in relief), 07 was 14 innings(3 starts) and in 06 was the last year of over 100 innings, with 146 innings. There is a large injury risk when you jump from 47 and 14 innings to over 100 MLB innings, so they let him start in the minors, where they could protect his arm.
With Billz, they wanted to start him in the pen and got Schmidt and Wolf to fill out the rotation. Wolf then had TJS and Schmidt… well, you know…. so Billz was thrown into the rotation.
They have tried to bring pitching prospects slowly(possibly because they skip AAA for most, so they try to take it slow) by putting them in the pen, although it seems to not have worked on a couple occasions…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 27, 2009 6:38 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I Can Accept Elbert Not Getting A Crack At The MLB Rotation In '09...
…but I very much hope it will be a different story in 2010. I think a problem at this point is Torre’s comfort level with having another young starting pitcher on top of Billz and Kershaw, especially after McDonald had so much trouble in the rotation in April.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 27, 2009 7:46 AM EST up reply actions
I think Torre had a problem with Elbert because it was mid season. Off the top of my head, I dont know when the last time Torre let a prospect go into the rotation mid year. Also, I do think it was because of the lack of innings in 07 and 06, they wanted him to prove he could handle 100+ innings a year… 2010, he should be our 4 or 5 starter..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 27, 2009 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
Torre had a problem with Elbert because he was supplanting a vet, and he doesn’t like that.
See: Andre Either vs. Andruw Jones/Juan Pierre in 2008
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Yea...
basically. His MO for a long time is to let a Vet go first and let him suck worse than anyone could thought, then let the prospect get a shot… Thats why a prospect has to go at the start of the year, where he can either make a name at ST or has a rotation spot reserved before the vet comes…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 27, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
Based on the scouting reports I’d wager that Webster makes the biggest grade move between now and next season. With only Lindblom and Elbert due to lose rookie status next year the Dodgers will have Martin, Miller, Webster, Eovaldi, Jansen, and Gould ready to roll onto the prospect maps.
If Santana and Bell were still Dodger prospects this would be a well rounded farm system with high impact players on both sides of the ball. Logan White has done his job even with the huge amount of graduations in the last three years, it was Ned and company who decided to move them for runs in the playoffs.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
With Santana and Bell people would be all over the Dodgers system putting them in the top 10. It’s just a good thing we’ve got Scrooge as our owner so we don’t have to worry about the pressure of that.
Bell wouldn’t radically change our system, IMO.
Santana, coming off back-to-back MVP seasons, would.
disagre
bell would be our 3rd best prospect..
maybe even first but john doesnt like him as much as others.. and only gave bell a B
I think a B would be good for right now, and then raise to a B+ if he can have a similar year in 2010.
if he has a similar year in 2010..
he will be in the big leagues..
Since the Sherrill trade people are starting to get all over Bell as being this great fielding 3b, and his bat was very good in 2009 as well. This guy could very well be the starting 3b for the Orioles in 2011, or maybe even some time in the middle of 2010. I seriously wish the Dodgers had held onto him, he was one of my favorite Dodger minor leaguers.
The Bell love is quite high right now, but I don’t think I’ve seen him described as a plus defensive third baseman.
Check the BPro rankings for Top 11 O’s prospects. Goldstein ranked him 2nd, and game him 4 star prospect status and said his defense is vastly improved.
Yeah
His defense is vastly improved. A year ago he was projected to move to first base. This doesn’t mean he’s a plus defensive third baseman…
As much as Bell improved at the plate in 2009, he made even larger strides defensively. Once seen as a future first baseman, Bell has made significant improvement in his instincts and footwork at the hot corner, while his arm has always been a plus.
He’s done an excellent job maintaining his condition over the last two years, but it will always be something that needs attention for him to stay at third base.
2nd this
I too like Webster a lot because of what i’m hearing about his mechanics and aptitude. I’d rank him higher but I know John usually likes to see guys in full-season ball before bumping their grades up.
The list
Overall I like the list. However, I think saying Withrow “needs to improve his command” is a little misleading. His BB/9 against righthanders last year was under 2.5. It’s lefties that give him problems, and he really needs to improve his changeup in order to challenge them more.
I have Russell higher because of his defense. It gets lost in the fact that he’s a TTO type, but he’s really an excellent RF (TotalZone had him at +17 runs in just the first half of last season). I’d hope he’d be closer to a Jack Cust type offensively, though his defense should be good enough to get him a shot in the bigs. I worry about his development path, as the Dodgers would be wasting his time by sending him to the Cal League. It’ll drastically inflate his stats without allowing him to address his ability to make contact.
I’m also a huge fan of Allen Webster. The fact that he came so far in 1 year and pitched so well in 2 of the best hitters’ leagues in the minors goes to show what type of ceiling he has. His changeup is already advanced, despite his relative inexperience, and physically he’s rain thin. His fastball may not be as good as Withrow’s or Martin’s, but he has a really good chance to have 3 plus pitches, which is something few others can aspire to achieve.
It disappointed me to see Jerry Sands miss the Top 20, though I noticed you mentioned him in the “Others” list. He had an enigmatic season, going 2 for 17 with 7 K’s in his first stint with the Loons. Then, it seems he figured something out, going to Ogden and absolutely killing the ball (He was far better than Brian Cavazos-Galvez). In his return to Great Lakes, Sands exploded out of the gate and, while he did experience a rough patch during the end of August, he played far better than his initial exposure to full season ball. He’s already 22, so he’ll need to move quicker than he has, but I like his offensive ceiling if he can continue to develop.
I’m far more optimistic about the arms than the bats, but there’s still plenty of guys to watch next season.
excellent point about withrows command...
that shows that.. yes he has command, cause he can throw strikes to RHB… he just needs to improve his change and throw strike to LHB..
but i never heard that allen webster had an advanced changeup.. where did you get that from?
and sands.. im really excited for him.. i think he will start out the year in A ball.. dominate it and move up to AA..
Webster
BA says he has “fairly good command of his changeup” and “he’s hesitant to throw his changeup right now, especially when behind in the count or with less than two strikes.”
Webster
From Ogden’s play by play announcer. During some of his most dominant outings, the broadcaster stated his success was due to his ability to locate his changeup. I’m not saying it’s a plus pitch right now, but the fact that he’s using it and having success with it is a promising sign for me.
John, a question...
Do you see either Dee Gordon or Withrow as a top 50? Many Dodger blogs felt that Withrow would be our #1 and that he had a shot at top 50. On the fanposts, people have said that Withrow is top 30. Because Gordon was ranked ahead, do you think that they both are top 50?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 27, 2009 8:04 PM EST reply actions
remember, John uses the 50/50 system
One list of 50 hitters, one list of 50 pitchers.
If you’re asking if each player would be among the top 25 hitters/pitchers . . .best guess would be yes.
Wow…it’s amazing how much people say this system is so bad…it had a great balance of top arms(most of which we still have) and solid bats(which now highlight Clevlands system and Baltimores…). Still, with Logan White at the head, our system is above average and within a couple drafts(or prospects maturing) it will be in the top 10 once again
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 27, 2009 11:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
except that mccourt is broke...
and doesnt care for draft picks.. (not offering arb to wolf and hudson)
by matthewmafa on Dec 27, 2009 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
True, but we do get our 1st rounder and all our other picks… But those FOUR extra picks would have really helped
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 27, 2009 11:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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