Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2009 3:25 PM EST
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PrintToronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2010
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Brett Wallace, 1B-3B, Grade B+: Didn't hit quite as well as expected last year but I still believe in the bat.
2) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B+: I like him a lot, too....could be a number two starter or closer, only role is unclear. Stuff slightly better than Drabek's I think.
3) Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade B+: Fully recovered from surgery and looks like a fine number two/three starter to me, assuming he keeps his head on straight.
4) Travis d'Arnaud, C, Grade B: Borderline B-. Numbers aren't spectacular but he's very young and I think the bat will continue to develop.
5) Chad Jenkins, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B, but would like to see some pro data. Could end up as a B+ next year if he puts things together quickly. A rotation of Drabek/Stewart/Jenkins could spin a lot of quality innings if everyone pans out.
6) David Cooper, 1B, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Disappointing season in Double-A but I can still see him developing into an Overbay-type regular. Be interesting to see how/if they get both Cooper and Wallace into the future lineup.
7) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B- but at age 27 it is hard to rate that grade. Great stuff, can close if the command is there.
8) Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Grade C+: Projectable and young with excellent command.
9) Carlos Perez, C, Grade C+: GCL catcher is a long way away, but has a good balance of offensive and defensive potential.
10) Brad Mills, LHP, Grade C+: Couldn't replicate '08 performance but '09 numbers at Vegas aren't bad considering the environment. Could be useful inning-eater control type.
11) Jake Marisnick, OF, Grade C+: Very toolsy, but need pro data to see how raw he is or is not before ranking higher.
12) Eric Thames, OF, Grade C+: I like this bat a lot, but he needs to stay healthy, apparently a big "if" for him.
13) Brad Emaus, 2B, Grade C+: I think he's better than what he showed at New Hampshire, could put up much bigger numbers in Vegas.
14) Ryan Schimpf, 2B, Grade C+: At best, a cross between Dustin Pedroia and Frank Catalanotto. At worst, a Tony Graffanino style utility player. Need data from higher levels to tell more.
15) Dan Farquhar, RHP, Grade C+: Command is an issue, but overpowering when on. Could help quickly as a relief option.
16) Robert Bell, RHP, Grade C+: Spectacular stats in the Florida State League, but need to see if stuff will hold up against better hitters. Certainly a sleeper.
17) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C: Baseball America likes him a lot more than this, but both personal observation and his performance in Vegas make me very skeptical at this point. Power is there, but his approach to hitting is terrible. I see him as a reserve catcher.
18) Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C: Awesome tools but right now he just doesn't do anything with the bat with no signs of growth. Injuries also an issue. But bottom line there are just guys I like better at this point.
19) Reidier Gonzalez, RHP, Grade C: Ground ball/control artist added to 40-man roster, could help as inning-eater or a bullpen asset.
20) Tim Collins, LHP, Grade C: Continues to put up outstanding statistics, pretty good stuff considering his 5-7 height. Should make a fine LOOGY. Note that other Grade C guys listed below (particularly Ahrens, Dopirak, Liebel, Magnuson, Tolisano, and Pastornicky) could easily slot in here, but I wanted to point Collins out since he's very interesting.
OTHER GRADE C players: Kevin Ahrens, 3B; Brian Dopirak, 1B; Ryan Goins, SS; Yan Gomes, C; K. C. Hobson, 1B; Andrew Liebel, RHP; Trystan Magnuson, RHP; Darin Mastroianni, OF; Tyler Pastornicky, SS; Luis Perez, LHP; Gustavo Pierre, SS; Welinton Ramirez, OF; Robert Ray, RHP; Moises Sierra, OF; Egan Smith, LHP; John Tolisano, 2B; Daniel Webb, RHP; Kenny Wilson, OF; Zech Zincola ,RHP.
The Blue Jays system was thin, and greatly benefits by the recent addition of Wallace, Drabek, and d'Arnaud this month. Stewart and Roenicke were acquired in trades this summer.
The Jays under former general manager J.P. Ricciardi took a lot of flak for focusing in polished college players in the draft. However, even when they brought in tools players, such as the high school hitters drafted in 2007 and various Latin American investments, the results were poor, leading me to wonder if the problems are as much in player development and coaching as much as in the drafting. The debacle of the 2009 draft is a huge blow: failing to sign the second, third, and fourth round picks speaks to serious problems with the Jays organization as a whole and hampers depth at the lower levels of the system for '10 and beyond.
In any event, the trades of the last six months help, and even beyond that the system is not completely barren, particularly with pitching. There are the makings of a good bullpen in the system, and if the top group of pitching comes close to meeting expectations, the future rotation looks solid. The hitting looks thin.
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Man what a boost
3/4 of their top guys are from that trade
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 23, 2009 3:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Drabek
Lowest I’ve seen anyone on him. He’ll prove you wrong this year.
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?
Huh? Grade B+ isn’t a low grade. I love the guy.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Just the standing
He’s a borderline A-/B+ to me. Below Wallace I can see, this must make Stewart a top 20 prospect to you. And I’ve barely seen him in 50.
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drabek/stewart
It is a tough call between the two. I’ve seen both in person. Stewart has more velocity and movement on his fastball. Drabek has better breaking stuff. I went back and forth between Stewart/Drabek at 2/3 on this list.
I might change it back when I do the 50/50. We’ll see. As stated, this is preliminary and subject to change.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
I think it means
That if Kyle Drabek were named Kyle Smith that some wouldn’t be as high on him as they are.
i sorta have wondered about that as well
I think Drabek’s a very good prospect, but I feel like he’s gotten a bit overhyped this year.
That's what I was implying.
I like guys with good bloodlines too, but I think the poster who argued Drabek was a borderline A- is overrating him. There’s upside there, but it’s not like the kid’s a young Clayton Kershaw, and there’s an injury history there too.. Stewart’s stuff is arguably as good, and he’s got a better statistical profile. If you switched the last names, I don’t think anybody would have a problem with him being the higher of the two.
Disagree
I’ve been high on him since the year started. And in my eyes, he’s done nothin wrong. He’s easily an A- prospect to me, and he will be an easy #2/#1 guy. I projected him to lead the minors in K’s coming into the year, and halfway through the year he was pretty damn close. Not bad for a guy coming back from major surgery.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 23, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
Is there such a thing
as an easy #1/2 guy? How many sure fire pitching prospects have missed? Thats always a strong statement to make with a pitcher given just how often premiere guys just don’t turn into what we thought the would be.
Well, Then, Based On Your Statement
This whole site is useless. There’s no point in projecting anyone at all, cause they can be anything. We don’t know til it happens. So really, we’re all wasting time.
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no. that is not what you conclude based on his statement. he’s questioning the underpinnings of your very strong assertion. you basically implied his floor was a #2. i’m also wondering how from yesterday afternoon to yesterday evening he went from “He’s a borderline A-/B+ to me” to “He’s easily an A- prospect to me”.
Yeah, I Was A Bit Inconsistent
He’s a low A-/high B+. He’s top 20 for me, which would probably make him an A-. Sometimes grades are more difficult than exact placements, cause one spot could change the grade.
I was being strong in my response, but basically I was saying that saying a “for sure 1/2” is what I can see happening if he’s not injured, and progresses the way he is expected. I won’t say best case, cause then many other guys would be higher. But this is what I see happening if things go the way they have been going for him.
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Not quite
The site is certainly not useless. John provides excellent insight into players that most of us don’t get to see during the course of the season. Then of course there is all of the information that the numerous great posters also have from what they see in person or hear from others.
My point was more of a “pitchers are too risky to suggest such a floor as a guarantee”. History is littere with pitchers with stuff like Drabek’s and strong numbers to boot who haven’t really turned into #1/2 guys (Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey are more recent examples and while they are still just 23 were both considered better prospects and one is in the bullpen and one just had a season of 112 innings of a solid #4 pitcher). Just saying its an incredibly strong position to take. If you say that is his ceiling then absolutely I can agree with that. Saying he will easily become that though, that just isn’t something anyone is going to be on board with or everyone would have him as the #1 prospect in all of baseball.
I agree with your general point
but I don’t think Phil Hughes is a good example. He did decently in the majors as a 21 year old starter, and then was hurt in 2008. In 2009, as a 23 year old, the Yankees were cautious and made him a RP, but he still excelled over 86 IP in the major leagues (and another 19 in AAA as a starter). I don’t think he’s a failed prospect at all.
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by OldProspects on Dec 26, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Failed prospect?
I never said he was a failed prospect. In fact, he has been incredibly valuable, especially this year as a reliever. My point was though that he has yet to become a #1/2 starting pitcher despite having both better numbers than Drabek and being a more highly regarded prospect than Drabek and history is full of guys just like that. Not that Hughes can’t be that guy in the future because I think there is certainly a chance he can, but he still hasn’t and the OP said that Drabek would easily become one and my point was to find guys who recently had similar/better stuff and were also viewed as Top 25 prospects who haven’t done it yet because its just not all that easy, for anyone.
Josh: David Cooper
Your Brett Wallace comment is worded in a way that suggests that Wallace is a “backup plan” in case Cooper doesn’t work out. Wallace has ALREADY surpassed Cooper as the “future 1B”. The Blue Jays are not going to be wasting time w/ Wallace at 3B, they have already stated that he is going to be a 1B long term.
lol
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 24, 2009 2:12 AM EST up reply actions
thanks
Thanks. I hadn’t seen that about the Jays not using Wallace at third.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
As an M's fan I'd love to hear where Johermyn Chavez would have ranked in this list,
if he made the top 20 at all.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 23, 2009 4:23 PM EST reply actions
Thank you
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 23, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
John
I’m curious as to where you would slot Cecil and Rzepczynski on this year’s list, had they not both surpassed the eligibility requirements.
Is that if they were eligible despite spending the year in the majors
or if they had spent the year in the minors being developed instead of getting called up at all?
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
it would kinda have to be the former
As we don’t really know how their performance may have differered had they stayed in the minors. Much easier to just imagine that the rookie threshold for innings pitched was higher
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 24, 2009 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
Surprised not to see Sierra
The Jays seem to be big on him and i’ve seen him top 10 elsewhere. Questions on his power or do you just not rate him?
+1
I’d at least have him in front of Gonzalez and Collins, and he seems to have the potential to be even higher. The major knock is the lack of power, but for his age it’s not as concerning as it may seem. His BB rate isn’t great but it’s not bad and improved last year, his K rate took a huge step forward and his arm in RF is reportedly one of the best in the minors.
Collins...
Not rating a C+ is perhaps your most surprising grade yet this year (P.Alvarez straight A being the other), imo. Even if Collins had the world’s worst scouting report, which he does and doesn’t, I’d think his numbers mixed with his age and level would place him a step above organizational filler.
by AgitationStation on Dec 23, 2009 5:56 PM EST reply actions
(P.Alvarez straight A being the other)
How is that surprising. You can say that you don’t agree with it, but it isn’t surprising at all considering many belive he is easily a top ten if not top 5 prospect.
Regarding Wallace
The power numbers really worry me, can someone put me at ease here and let me know that this was just a blip on the radar?
power numbers
You’re worried that he only hit 20 jacks last year? It’s important to keep in mind that he moved from AA to AAA in the STL organization and then again to AAA for OAK. Considering he was drafted just last year, he’s still doing a lot of adjusting. TOR should start him at AAA for a few months to let him mash PCL pitching and then promote him (a la Snider).
I’ve had the opportunity to see him in person and I think he has more pop than for what he receives credit. He’s often pigeon-holed into a doubles hitter with 15-20 home run power. I think that is the absolute floor for him. People said the same thing about Lind just a year or two ago. I don’t think Wallace will ever be a 35-40 home run guy, but 30 is within reason.
Stewart ahead of Drabek....
In the words of Al Borland; “I don’t think so Tim”.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2009 7:43 PM EST reply actions
Because
Why though? John has stated why he thinks so. He believes Stewart has the better stuff of the two. Simply disagreeing doesn’t really do much for the conversation.
My love of Drabek is well documented
In my opinion he has better stuff and is better suited to be a frontline starter then Stewart. I am not the only one who thinks so. Just go look at Goldstein, Manual, or Callis’ rankings of the two and I would think you will find Drabek ranked ahead of Stewart on all their lists.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2009 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
Which is fine that you feel that way
But you should have said it in the thread anyways rather than simply saying “no”.
LOL
If a Home Improvement reference offended you, then I think you are a little too sensitive. I am pretty sure John is not that thin skinned.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2009 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
Offend me?
Where did you get the idea that it offended me? I was just saying that you should offer more to the conversation that “I disagree with that” but not going into why.
close
They are extremely close in my mind. When I get to doing the 50/50 list I might flop them. I haven’t decided yet.
What part of “extrermely preliminary” do you jokers not understand?
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
Reply
You just made a post stating “What grades from the 2010 book that I have given so far do you most disagree with, and why?”. I strongly disagree with your assesment of Zach Stewart who I personally feel should be a B grade at highest.
In my opioion you are 100% wrong on Drabek. I am a HUGE Jays fan but you are drastically overrating Stewart’s stuff if you think he is the same grade as Drabek. He may have slightly higher velocity but if you have seen both pitch you will know that his fastball has nowhere near the movement of Drabeks. Also, he doesn’t have a secondary pitch that is close to Drabek’s curveball.
I find it hard to believe that you have Stewart ahead of a guy like Drabek who is #16 on Manual’s list and high on most other experts. This just seems like an intentional grade thats sole purpose is to cause a bit of controversy to create discussion. That is just my opinion but I stand by it.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
This just seems like an intentional grade thats sole purpose is to cause a bit of controversy to create discussion.
+1
exactly my thought when i saw it too..
by matthewmafa on Dec 23, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
controversy
I’m not that conspiratorial.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
He's No Dewey.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 23, 2009 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
Or King Billy Royal, for that matter.
by RedSoxFaithful on Dec 24, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
I Love Em Both
But true.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 24, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
no
I have seen Stewart pitch, and when I have seen him his fastball had better movement than Drabek’s. His breaking stuff is not as advanced, but he’s got a terrific fastball.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
Drabek vs. Stewart FB
but if you have seen both pitch you will know that his fastball has nowhere near the movement of Drabeks
What backing do you have here? Stewart is a sinkerball pitcher (ie: very few straight fastballs) whereas I have never seen Drabek described as anything other than a prototypical power pitcher (FB/Curve combo). I haven’t seen either pitch in person but I have a very hard time believing that Stewart has “nowhere near the movement” of Drabek. If that was true then Drabek would be getting major hype as a sinkerballer, whereas the splits show Stewart as a high groundball pitcher (which you would expect from a sinkerballer) and Drabek as more of a flyball pitcher if anything.
Stewart is a sinkerball pitcher (ie: very few straight fastballs) whereas I have never seen Drabek described as anything other than a prototypical power pitcher (FB/Curve combo).
A sinker is not the same thing as a fastball. Someone like Wang had great movement on his sinker but his fastball tended to be straight. Also you asked “What backing do you have here?”. I have the same backing as John; I am seen them both pitch in person and I can tell you that I am much more impressed with Drabek’s stuff. Those in the Toronto organization and media tend to agree as they all appear to be much higher on Drabek then Stewart, although most think that Stewart will settle into the role of a back inning reliever.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 24, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Stewart
Stewarts sinker was 92-94 with very good movement while he was with the Reds this year. I am curious as to who “most” are that think Stewart winds up in the bullpen. Its not the guys at BA who said this of Stewart:
This year was a breakthrough season for him and once that showed he has a very good chance to be a solid starter and not just a power reliever.
It clearly isn’t John. So who are these “most” in the Stewart is going to settle into the bullpen group?
I also believe that I saw Toronto’s front office saying recently that they viewed Stewart as a #3 type starter. Unfortunately I can’t find it right now.
Agreed
That is my point. When scouts refer to a guys ‘fastball’ they tend to be talking about the 4 seamer.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 24, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
What do they talk about
for guys who don’t throw a 4 seamer, like Stewart?
How many scouts do you talk to to know that they refer to fastballs as the 4 seamer?
A sinkerball pitcher doesn’t throw many, if any, straight 4-seam fastballs. Roy Halladay doesn’t throw anything that goes straight.
Stewart’s fastball easily has more movement than Drabek’s. The fact that it is a sinker vs. a more traditional 4-seam fastball doesn’t take away from this, because a sinker is still a fastball.
Kyle Drabek at AA:
18.8% K Rate, .295 BABIP, 42% GB.
How is that a top 25 prospect resume?
Jeanmar Gomez at AA:
20.9% K Rate, .303 BABIP, 46% GB.
Oh, and Jeanmar is younger. Drabek is painfully overrated.
For practical purposes, they're the same age.
Not only are you using small sample size, ignoring the fact that Drabek has been statistically better in the past, but you’re ignoring any and all scouting in your assessment, which is definitely worth more than a sample of 100 innings.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 23, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
Well ...
Talk about cherry picking your stats. What about what Drabek did in A+ this year? Sure, his drop in K rate at AA was not good but it doesn’t mean we can say that it never happened and didn’t exist and just forget about it. On the flip side, we’re talking about a 21-year old kid who just came off TJ surgery with about 100 pro innings under his belt and he absolutely dominated FSL batters, his stat line was silly, including striking out 29.7% of batters faced.
Then he goes up to AA, again this is a kid who entered the season with a whole 54 innings of full season ball experience, and you know what? He held his own. Sure, he didn’t dominate, but we’re talking about a HS pick who missed the bulk of the last 2 seasons. He should be way back on the development curve, lets cut the kid a LITTLE slack before we start comparing him to guys like Jeanmar Gomez.
Yeah, I found that strange too
If one had a ridiculously high or ridiculously low one, you could be making a case that he was unlucky or lucky, but since they have essentially the same BABIP and pretty much an average one, it’s pointless.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
There's a difference ...
There’s a HUGE difference between groupthink and actually putting SOME value in the opinions of scoutss. Drabek was highly touted coming into the draft, his stuff rated amongst the best in his draft class and you want to completely ignore it. He absolutely embarrassed Florida State League hitters and you want to completely ignore it.
I’m tired of people cherry picking small samples of data without any justification for doing so and generally completely ignoring scouting reports without reason … and then crying foul when people don’t buy into their argument.
First Full Year Back As Well
I’d love to see almost any pitcher do what he did a year back from surgery at a level you’ve never performed at before.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 23, 2009 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
drabek
C’mon guys….it says right up at the top…“preliminary.”
Stewart and Drabek are very close. This is not a knock on Drabek, who I think is a terrific prospect. I think that Stewart is the one underrated by some people.
I can accept this
However, you have to understand that people aren’t personally upset at you when we disagree with a grade. If you don’t want us to question, compliment, or disagree with a ranking, then why do you encourage discussion and allow comments? Having everyone give their opinions on players, both good and bad, can only HELP your analysis and give you different viewpoints on players.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
right
Right, which is exactly why I do it. I try to be as open and transparent as possible for just that reason.
You must also keep in mind that I am very tired and probably testy.
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Fine
But please keep that in mind if I seem short with you as well as I also often post when tired, sick, or testy. I love this site John and my feedback is done to create discussion and to create a better experience for all. That is why I completed the community list this year, which unfortunately I am unable to undertake this year due to unforeseen circumstances. If somebody else wants to take the lead, I will gladly be the secondary man in the process.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
It goes both ways too
Having John give his opinion should help your analysis too. But since its not what you agree with or what BA agrees with, then you seem to just toss it aside as ‘wrong’.
You are missing the point..
I welcome John’s viewpoint and I welcome everyone’s right to challenge differing viewpoints. My problem was with John seemingly annoyed with people questioning his thoughts when this posts are designed to encourage discussion and comments. However, John and I have discussed this and both understand the other’s viewpoint so I don’t see the reason to continue to rehash this any further.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 24, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Don't let the squeaky wheel here affect you too much, John.
I like the argument for Stewart over Drabek. If your analysis gets you there, don’t backpedal just because of the whines of a few.
Arencibia
I know this is hard to say — and I know you graded him a straight C — but what are the odds that he straightens out his approach enough to tap into his power and become a useful starting catcher? Clearly, since you think he’s likely to be a reserve catcher, that means you estimate the odds as being somewhere below 50%. But since BA still likes him, and the organization likes him enough to have protected him in trades so far, I’m curious if you’d like to hazard a guess of the likelihood he ever DOES live up to that potential later in his career, whether in Toronto or elsewhere. Just your gut sense.
Almost impossible? Or could he benefit from a change of scenery and coaching?
http://www.chop-n-change.com
I did a quick study
For a Juan Francisco argument recently about plate approach and K/BB rates. Here is what I did:
I looked at every batter from 1993-2008 with at least 1500 MLB at bats and a K/BB of 3.50 or worse in the major leagues. There were only 20 players who fit that bill. Only two of them were able to improve their K/BB from the minor leagues to the majors (Jose Guillen went from 3.61 in the minors to 3.52 in the majors, while Rocco Baldelli went from 4.01 in the minors to 3.84 in the majors). The other 18 went in the opposite direction from the minors to the majors. Side note – Only 1 of those 20 players has a career OPS over .770 and its Alfonso Soriano.
What it tells me is that guys who struggle big time with K/BB in the minors have a very tough time correcting the problem in the majors. It also tells me that the odds of it happening are probably less than 10% that he can make the adjustments he will need to make down the road. Just my take, but the data suggests its incredibly difficult to do.
by dougdirt on Dec 24, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
really interesting!
In general though, how often do players improve their K/BB from the minor leagues to the majors? We could then compare the rate of improvement (or lack thereof) for the players mentioned to the same rate for all players.
I wish I knew
I only have a major league database running, so I can only go through the major league stats and see who had the terrible K/BB rates then get online and check out how they did in the minors. I am working on building a minor league database back to 1980, but since I am doing in manually its going to take a while as I only have so much free time during the day.
Arencibia
I completely agree with Doug that a K:BB rate improvement would be hard to come by for Arencibia, or any player. However, that said, I still think that he has enough power to at least be a starting C in MLB somewhere in the John Buck-Rod Barajas-Bengie Molina-Miguel Olivo realm of being just good enough to start. He stands a chance to become a little bit more, but not a great chance.
He was painfully overrated to begin with
Please, lets all remember this with every other catching prospect who isnt doing anything all that well.
Taylor or Wallace
You gave both Wallace and Taylor a B+, but which one would you rank higher in a Top 100?
taylor
It is close but probably taylor…..more defensive value to go with the bat. this is especially true if Wallace is just a 1B.
by John Sickels on Dec 24, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
Overall question
John, when all is said and done where do you see this system ranking in MLB? Pre-Doc trade I probably would have said worst or darn close to it, but it’s certainly a little better now (but not too much). Would 20-25 range be a good prelim guess?
I think it could be a big moving system next year as well b/c they really could have only 1 or 2 graduates (Wallace, Roenicke) after promoting a lot of guys in 2009, and they have a ton of high 2010 picks for not signing their 2009 guys + Scutaro + potentially Barajas compensation. Right now, with Barajas not signed (he’s type B) the Jays already have 8 picks in the first 3 rounds (1, 1s,1s,2,2,2,3,3).
John: Pastornicky
I just now realized that you didn’t even have Pastornicky in the top 20? That is a huge omission. Pastornicky’s tools are underrated IMO and he is one of the few Jays HS kids that have actually shown to be able to hit. I think he has easily surpassed Jackson, why? Because the defensive drop off from Jackson to Pastornicky isn’t that great, and offensively you are comparing a guy with poor contact and terrible plate disciple (Jackson) to a guy that can actually get the bat on the ball and has an above average eye at thed plate. Pastornicky has the upside to be a leadoff hitter: think Eckstein with a way better arm (thus better defense) and a bit more speed. Jackson on the other hand will need to improve drastically to be anything other than John McDonald with a bit more power.
pastornicky
I like him. I will post his full comment here in a minute.
by John Sickels on Dec 24, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Pastronicky v Jackson
I think the Jackson/McDonald comparison is way, way off … Jackson draws a lot of walks, much more than McDonald ever has or even Pastornicky does. Its his contact that is a problem, and that’s not a problem for either TP or JM. Jackson’s power potential is greater, his walk rate is better, his glove is better but his contact rate is worse (much worse). All that said, I think Pastornicky is a lower ceiling/lower floor player vs. Jackson who could flame out but if he puts it all together has a much, much higher ceiling.
The McDonald comparison was simply to state that you’re looking at a defensive SS who will get completely overmatched at the plate. Guys who cant hit for contact and who strike out at a ridiculous rate (ie: Jackson) dont have a very high likelihood of ever contributing much offensively, even with a pretty good ability to draw walks.
The simple fact is that I see Pastornicky as having a much higher realizable upside based on what he has shown. He’s a leadoff hitter who controls the strike zone, puts the ball in play, and uses his speed. Combine that with what is projected to be above-average defense and you have a useful starting SS. With Jackson you are looking at a #8/#9 hitter who has a bit of pop but will whiff every time he’s up there.
Well ...
You’re assuming no progression at all apparently. Jackson is 6-2, could easily hit for some decent power as he matures. Heck, in 2008 his line in Lansing wasn’t exactly terrible either … I would argue it was better than what Pastornicky did in Lansing this year at the same age. He just turned 21 like last week, give him some time.
pastornicky
Tyler Pastornicky, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Bats: R Throws: R HT: 5-11 WT: 170 DOB: December 13, 1989
Year Team LG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008 GCL Blue Jays R 50 160 32 42 6 3 1 17 21 21 27 5 .263 .349 .356
2009 Lansing A 109 413 63 111 11 9 1 31 39 50 51 15 .269 .336 .346
Dunedin A 15 63 9 17 3 0 0 3 3 7 6 3 .270 .303 .317
2 Minor League Seas. 174 636 104 170 20 12 2 51 63 78 84 23 .267 .336 .346
2009: Grade C.
Drafted in the fifth round out of high school in Bradenton, Florida, in 2008, Pastornicky had a successful full-season debut, holding his own in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues at age 19, stealing 57 bases. He doesn’t have much power at this point and isn’t likely to develop much, but his speed makes him a significant threat on the bases. His on-base skills are adequate, he doesn’t strike out much, and he has enough baseball aptitude and instinct to improve his strike zone judgment if he focuses on it. Scouts love his attitude and work ethic, as a true "baseball rat" type player. Pastornicky has average range and arm strength, but is fundamentally sound at shortstop. In the long run he may fit best as a utility player, though he’s a full time shortstop now to rack up as much experience as possible at that position. I like Pastornicky, but I’m not sure if he will hit enough to get beyond being a bench player at the major league level. That said, he’s young enough to develop substantially beyond his current level, and his "intangibles" are a big positive. Grade C.
Thats the first I’ve heard anyone say that Pastornicky’s range and arm are “average”. Both were billed as being above-average at the time when he was drafted. Pastornicky was throwing low 90’s from the mound as a relief pitcher.
yeah
Actually you are right about that, pre-draft reports from 2008 indicate above average range. Total Zone rates him as below average in range in the Midwest League last year. Granted minor league fielding stats are questionable.
by John Sickels on Dec 24, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
stats
I will re-write the comment to reflect the dichotomy between TZ and the scouting reports.
by John Sickels on Dec 24, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
past
try this on for size:
Drafted in the fifth round out of high school in Bradenton, Florida, in 2008, Pastornicky had a successful full-season debut, holding his own in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues at age 19, stealing 57 bases. He doesn’t have much power at this point and isn’t likely to develop much, but his speed makes him a significant threat on the bases. His on-base skills are adequate, he doesn’t strike out much, and he has enough baseball aptitude and instinct to improve his strike zone judgment if he focuses on it. Scouts love his attitude and work ethic, as a true "baseball rat" type player. Pastornicky is fundamentally sound at shortstop. Scouts have consistently rated his range and arm strength as strong major league quality, particularly his arm, although statistically his Total Zone rating came out below average last year for the Midwest League. Minor league defensive stats are still problematic, so the dichotomy between the positive scouting reports and the weaker numbers is interesting. We’ll have to see which one turns out more accurate in the long run. I like Pastornicky, but I’m not sure if he will hit enough to get beyond being a bench player at the major league level. That said, he’s young enough to develop substantially beyond his current level, and his "intangibles" are a big positive. Grade C.
Alvarez
From local reports, and according to new GM AA, Henderson Alvarez is very high on their internal lists. I tend to think of him as being above Roenicke and even Cooper.
Also, I’m curious as to how far from the top 20 you have Sierra? Thanks
by ofsticksandbats on Dec 24, 2009 5:04 PM EST reply actions
alvarez
Yes, Alvarez’s high placement on the BA list reflects what the organization thinks.
Once i get past 20 I don’t bother to rate them. Sierra was under consideration for 20, so that wold probably put him in the 21-23 range.
by John Sickels on Dec 24, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
John
Where would you have ranked Paxton, Eliopoulos and Barrett if the Jays had been able to sign them?
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