Ranking B- Pitching Prospects (1st year players)
by The Colonel on Dec 23, 2009 1:03 AM EST
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I find the most difficult prospects to judge and rank are the B- SP prospects. They aren't B's (which are solid prospects) but rather B-'s meaning that they have some flaw (control, health, etc.). They aren't C+'s, which John hands out a lot of and many don't pan out. The B-minuses have more potential than that.
I'm narrowing it down to 1st year SP prospects who are B-'s (w/ a couple of interesting C+'s thrown in). I'm using John's rankings from this year '10 and last year '09. If you have some holiday free time, please rank the following prospects and if any of these Ps you see breaking out or not making it.
10 09
Junichi Tazawa B- B
Kris Medlen - B-
Bud Norris - B-
David Hernandez - B-
David Huff - B-
Vin Mazzaro - B-
Brad Mills - B-
Aaron Poreda C+ B+
Mark Rzepczynski - C+
Ricky Romero - C+
Antonio Bastardo C+ C+
Esmil Rogers - not in book (don't have much info on this guy but John mentioned him mid-season)
Happy Holidays and thanks to those who participate!
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Kris Medlen
Although, he is no longer technically a prospect, Medlen would certainly qualify for B, maybe B+ if you’re generous.
I think he would have regularly appeared on top 100 lists this year if he had stayed in AAA. At age 23, he was 5-0, with a 1.19 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 0.80 WHIP in Gwinnett.
A couple of rocky starts in his first few games marred his Major League stats for 2009, but he maintained 9.6 K/9 in the bigs (67 IP). The ERA was 4.26 as a 23 year old rookie.
Unfortunately, the only way I think he "breaks out" is if Atlanta trades him or one of the starting five which are solidly ahead of him is injured for a sufficient period of time.
Ricky Romero
David Hernandez
Marc Rzep…
Vin Mazzaro
Bud Norris
Esmil Rogers
Junichi Tazawa
Antonio Bastardo
Aaron Poreda (he’d be higher if I thought he’d stick in the rotation)
Kris Medlen (he’d be higher if I thought he’d stick in the rotation)
David Huff
Brad Mills
I think they'll be given a chance
I’m not even sure if Medlen/Poreda will get a chance to start in the majors. Medlen should, but there’s simply no way he cracks that Atlanta rotation unless injuries hit.
The 5th starter job is pretty wide open right now in Philly and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bastardo is given a look there. Rogers needs to develop a change up, so we’ll see what happens there. Both may end up in the bullpen (along with Norris), but I don’t think it’s a sure thing yet.
Bastardo
There is a lot of talk on the radio here that they don’t like his mechanics and don’t think he’ll hold up long-term as a starter. Granted, that’s talk on the radio, so they might be making it up, but it does seem to be backed up by what scouts say and by him getting hurt right after being switched to starting this year.
Possibly
I haven’t really paid a lot of attention to Bastardo. I just don’t see another obvious 5th starter.
Rogers
I can’t remember ever hearing about any concerns over Roger’s ability to hold up as a starter (though he has limited pitching experience since he is a converted position player) so his eventual role will depend upon his ability to develop that change-up.
The speculation about Rogers going to the pen has more to do with Chacin, Friedrich and Matzek flying past Rogers and the allure of Roger’s two power pitches in a late inning role than it has to do with his ability/inability to be a starting pitcher. Colorado is the same organization that is planning to use Franklin Morales (a more talented pitcher with a full starting pitcher’s arsenal) as a late game reliever again.
Speaking as a Jays fan
Romero seemed to really struggle inning to inning with fastball command in the second half of the season, yet he was able to “gut” out six innings most of the time, which was encouraging. I’d also note that when he had command of his changeup, he was lights out. He features four pitches and mixes them well, throwing each at least 11% of the time last year. Oddly, he has better command of his slider and curve than he does of his fastball and changeup.
Rzep doesn’t throw hard. He has excellent command of a fastball that sits at 88mph. His nasty slider is his calling card that generates all the swing-and-misses. Law thinks his delivery is flawed and he won’t last as a starter. I’m bullish though, I see Jimmy Key.
The coaching staff loved Mills in ST and had great things to say about him. The fans didn’t see much though in his cameo. The jury is certainly out on Brad. Mills, Drabek, Stewart and Ray should anchor a very solid AAA pitching staff though.
Medlen though, I think has a really good chance of being the Braves best relief pitcher. That’s seeing a lot in a ’pen that includes Peter Moylan.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
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