Vitters v. Castro: Who's #1?

As of today, in almost everyones estimation Castro is clearly the Cubs #1 prospect. I've done a lot of reaserch and gone back over scouting reports and numbers and I just don't find it to be that clear. I'm leaving Brett Jackson out of this discusion as we only have a small sample size at low levels for a college player and I only have limited scouting reports on him and want to see how his k rate is gonna play at higher levels.  

Castro: In a perfect world I see his offensive profile as something along the lines of Yunel Escobar. 280ish 10-15 hr 10-20 sb while playing above average ML defense. Castro is riding some serious helium and I think that has led to ppl overrating him as a prospect. The fact that he reached AA as a 19 year old has also pumped up his prospect status. I have some serious questions as to how high his offensive profile really is. 1st I can't get an accurate read on what his speed actually is. Last year BA said he had average speed w/ possibly more to come and this year they say he's a plus runner. Now from a couple of ppl who saw him not only in the AFL but also during the year I've heard everything from below average to average ( I dont know if I buy below average but I've seen a lot of average). So I'm not sure what the reality is. He profiles to fill out more and add power but if he does how much speed does he lose? 

He hit .288 in 111 ABs at AA, which is encouraging but I'm also cautious about how much to read into this. His promotion came at the end of the year when some of leagues better pitchers got promoted and young pitchers are starting to feel the effects of the long season as they are approaching career highs in IP. So I guess how good was the quality of pitching he faced late in the year? This goes for the AFL also. I use this as an example not the rule but players like Lars Anderson and Andrew Lambo cruised through A ball to late season promotions to AA in '08 and kept hitting only to struggle in a full year at AA in '09. Now I'm not comparing any of these hitters just pointing out that we should be cautious about his numbers late in the year at AA.

2010 will go along way toward answering some of these questions like speed, power ETC. As of right now I'd say Castro has the look of a solid average to above average #2 hitter in a ML line up posting numbers something like 280-290 8-12 HRs and somewhere between 10-20 SBs. A nice offensive profile but not a star. Of coarse on the down he could end up a light hitting bottom of the order average to above average ML defender also. Not really the profile I'd like to see from my teams #1 prospect. 

Vitters: So many are down on him and yes I can see some of the argumeny why. Poor walk rate and defensive questions. There is still an awfull lot to like. He rates as a 70 in both hitting and power on the 20-80 scouting scale. He has an extremley compact stroke for a power hitter maybe the prettiest right handed swing in the minors. He makes such easy contact that it almost is working against him in learning to wait on his pitch. He hit very well as a 19 year old in the pitcher friendly Midwest League posting 316/351/535 15 46. Coming into this year some were starting to question how much power he would have after posting 25 2b and 5 hr in SS ball. This year he turned those 2b into HR (19 2b 18hr). So he is making improvements and adjustments. In Pablo Sandoval's  1194 PA in low and high A ball he walked only 61 times. Now I'm not saying he's gonna follow KFP development path or even that he ends up as good as him but he's not the 1st ulta aggressive hitter to have walk issues as a young man. Also he only struck out 65 times last year a very encourging number. FWIW Vitters and Sandoval's numbers in the low minors look eerily similar w/ Vitters showing more power.

Yes Vitters struggled in his first taste of high A ball but not that uncommon either. His BABIP was only .259 in a very small sample size. Simply put Vitters gets high marks for work ethic and has shown that he knows how to make adjustments both leading me to believe he will be much improved in high A next year. Defensively he was really bad last year but he gets raves on how hard he works. He's got a strong arm and from what I've heard his defensive problems could come a long way w/ improved footwork which I have to think at some point Alan Trammel or someone else in the organization is gonna put in some work w/ him on that. Some act as if it's a forgone conclusion that he ends up at 1B. He is gonna have to prove to the Cubs that he absolutely cannot handle 3B before they even consider that move.

Vitters could easily be a 300 hitter w/ 25-30 HR power if only he learns to lay off the pitchers pitch and wait on his. He will probably never walk much but if he develops a dangerous bat  he'll draw more walks purley based on pitchers being more carefull when working him in much the same way Sandoval drew a career high 52 BB this year. Even if he moves to 1B his bat could still easily play there. To be fair there is also a chance he flames out and never reaches the majors. But given the choice of Castro or Vitters I'd have to take my chances on Vitters.  Don't get me wrong I like Castro but I think he offers some of his own questions but not w/ the type of ceiling Vitters offers. At 19 this past year and just turned 20 I cannot understand how ppl can just write him off so easily.