Offseason Regrades
by matthewmafa on Dec 20, 2009 11:58 PM EST
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Printcwhitman412 did a mid season one a few months ago. Now lets do a off season one. This is how it works. We post players and see what other peoples opinions of them are grade wise and why. It's good to see what opinions we have on specific guys. Controversial guys are easily the best. Definitely a fun exercise to see where different players are now.
reallly? 75 words to publish a fanpost... 75th
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B+
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, B+ until he proves he can stay healthy and succeed at Double-A. Clearly has A/A- stuff though.
Does he clearly have A/A- stuff?
He clearly has an A/A- fastball – but the secondary stuff comes and goes. That right there stops him short of an A- in my book. Then we have some questions of size/stature, endurance and (most alarmingly) command.
Despite that, he’s probably still a B+ for me b/c his upside is so high. I just dont get anyone thinking A-. I could see a better case for B than for A-.
The question really is about his secondary stuff, and while some scouts love it, some claim it doesn’t exist. Because he’s 19 — and maybe out of abject fear of him torturing the Phillies for years to come - I’m more inclined to believe that his secondary stuff flashes plus, but is just inconsistent right now. So I guess it’d be more accurate to say that he has "A/A raw stuff".
Agreed on the B+ overall though.
Right
I dont think people are making enough of that distinction.
Pretty strong chance he ends up a reliever, too. Would still be an excellent prospect there…
I certainly wouldn't say "strong"
No one can argue that Mejia doesn’t have secondary pitches, just that they are inconsistent. I’ve seen both secondary pitches given very positive ratings, as well. Given the fact that he’s not yet 20, I don’t consider that to be a significant roadblock to the rotation.
Mejia’s definitely a B+ because of his inconsistency/risk, but I don’t see him more likely to land in the bullpen than most pitching prospects.
I see him as more likely
Durability and stature concern me slightly more than the secondary stuff, which does flash as plus. There is the question of his stuff holding up late in games and over the course of a long season (He’s never gone over 94.2 IP). Those are pretty major tests than we just dont know how he will react.
For instance, I brought both those issues up with Joba Chamberlain and was booed down on this site. I was right.
B+
I like him a ton, but he hasn’t done it at a higher level for an extended period of time, and there are still durability concerns
+1
some could also argue hes a B cause he has Many many question marks.. from secondary pitches to command to the stuff you mentioned… many many question marks..
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
huh?
secondary pitch problems? He has a killer sweeping curve with a FB that has touched 99. I believe he has thrown a bit of cutter/2 seamer(depending on break) as well. Dodger blogs, off the top of my head MOKM and TBLA feel he is a top 100, possibly top 50. I’d say A-. He will start at AA and, because of the Dodger’s tactics with pitchers(after AA, give them a feel at the majors), could be in a Sept callup and rotation in 2011.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 1:28 AM EST up reply actions
i have never heard of withrow throwing a 2 seamer or cutter… just 4 seamer curve change.. and his change is extremely inconsistent while his curve stil needs some work too depending on which scouting reporrtt you read
the curve I’ve seen from him has looked real strong. The change does need work.
I may be wrong about the cutter, but i believe he was working on adding the pitch…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
curious
have you seen withrow pitch live or is this from the videos on youtube
I’ve seen him pitch twice, once in A ball, and once in AA. I’d like to see him a few more times next year, if possible…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 1:52 AM EST up reply actions
Velocity reports..
I think velocity reports have begun to get completely out of hand. Maybe he’s hit 99 on the gun, maybe not, but I do know that VERY VERY VERY few pitchers, much less starting pitchers, hit 99 on the gun. Ever.
Withrow hit 99 starting 3 times, off the top of my head. Now, he doesnt sit there. He sits in the mid to low 90s, but can pump it up there, when neccesary…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 23, 2009 3:54 AM EST up reply actions
uh
Maybe a B if you really like him, otherwise B-
explanation?
he doesnt get a lot of press because he is out west, but he is crazy good…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
what is there to explain?
Lots of strikeouts, but young with lots of walks. His raw stuff is obviously plus but there’s really no reason to be so high on the guy at this point unless you’re just trying to be different from the consensus. Certainly he’s a solid breakout candidate for next year, but he’s also a solid candidate to fall apart, too.
Actually he seems to get plenty of notice. There are a few other posters on here who have been hyping Withrow constantly for months now. They are similarly unjustified in trying to pretend that 25 decent innings in AA makes a guy one of the very best pitching prospects in baseball.
+1
Great potential … but geesh, being on here makes me think Withrow is next coming already. He very well could be, but there’s a lot of work to do. I think I’d go B.
It depends what grading scale
If it’s based off of John’s current ratings, Withrow is a B+. I think he’s on the same tier as Simon Castro.
I'd go with a B for Withrow
I’m usually a pretty conservative prospector but there is just something about this kid. I’d have him in the high end of the B grades, not too far off from the B+ guys.
RIP Nick Adenhart
B+
Dominant. His ERA doesn’t tell the real story at all. First full year back from TJ, very young for his league, and great stuff.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
tommy john..
i think he just had elbow soreness.. or a strain… no tommy john..
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Whatever
He was hurt. And it sucked.
I had just woken up.
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You posted six different things.
Four of those things are false.
dominant… he struck out over 10 per 9 this year
ERA doesnt tell real story: True because his ERA was 4.5 on the year but his FIP was 3.5
first full year back after tommy john was wrong
very young for his league.. True at the end of the year when he was 20 in AA but not really for most of the year
Great stuff: mod 90s fastball with great curve and all those Ks shows he has great stuff
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
since you decided to go there
B+ : FALSE – Withrow is not a B+ quality pitching prospect.
Dominant: FALSE – Strikeouts never tell the whole story. Did you ignore the part about him walking 4.5 guys every 9 innings?
ERA doesn’t tell the real story at all: FALSE – The difference between actual ERA and FIP is important to note but it’s not like you can throw out the actual numbers just because you don’t like them. The poster is suggesting that you can in fact do that, which I strongly disagree with.
First full year back after TJ: FALSE – Withrow has not had TJ surgery.
Very young for his league: TRUE – 20 is young for A+, and very young for AA. Not that ARL means much for pitchers, but it’s worth noting.
Great stuff: TRUE – I’ll go with that. Nice curveball that projects as a plus pitch, maybe plus-plus. Nice fastball that seems like a solid bet to work 92-93 MPH with continued good health (not that it’s a given).
That would be four.
You do know that grades aren't a true/false issue, right?
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by OldProspects on Dec 21, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
B+
I have heard his curve is inconsistent and his change is lacking, but I have also heard how dominant he can be.
His command is also pretty bad. (45 BBs in 86 IP)
He’s got a high ceiling undeniably, but lets not overlook all the work he needs to do and the flaws.
B+
he has answered most of his question marks from defense at third to conditioning..
has 25 to 30 home run power with great patience at the plate..
the only thing holding him back from a A- for me is that he cant hit LHP at all..
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
I want him to get some at bats right handed against lefties
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
u mean left handed against lefties right?
if thats the case then yes…. theres no way he can do worse as a lhb against a LHP then he is RHB vs LHP… just be left handed fully.. its obvious thats where hes at his best..
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
yeah whoops thats what i meant
it would be nice to see him hit even a little better that way. it wouldve bumped his averages up probably .010 and his swing is much better lefty
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
B/B+
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
borderline B
My concerns:
-I want to make sure the improved conditioning and defense stick. Guy was still viewed as a likely future 1B in like… June, and he doesnt run well.
-He’s a switch hitter in name only, with a big platoon split.
-Im not sure I see 25 to 30 HR power. Maybe he grades as a 60+ raw power, but he hasnt shown all that much yet (Bowie, Chatanooga and Inland Empire all boost HRs). I also question whether he can come near that considering he’s shown close to no power off LHPs. Awfully hard to get to 30 HR that way. Career he has 51 from the left side and only 6(!) from the right side.
-I dont see as a real impact bat, just a good bet to be above average.
I like Josh Bell a lot, and I don’t mind him as a B+ (though he’d be one of the bottom ones for me), but the love is getting out of hand now. He was tremendously underrated previously. He is not anymore.
NOTE THAT I AM NOT SAYING HE’S A BUST – I AM SAYING HE’S PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS THE HYPE HE IS NOW GETTING, BUT IS STILL VERY GOOD.
B
Not ready to give up yet.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
I'd say B-
I’m still not sure we’ve seen the real Lars Anderson yet. His 2008 numbers were inflated due to high BABIP’s and his 2009 was way down due to injury/confidence issues. Let’s see what he does next year.
RIP Nick Adenhart
B+
strikes out way to much and no true defensive spot
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
last year a B
and certainly deserving of a nice upgrade from there based on the very strong season in AA. B+ , but closer to A- than B.
If his BABIP drops to his 2008 level
Then last year, he would have had an OPS in the area of .820. I think he’s a B+, because he has the potential to be a star, but he looks like an above average 1B to me
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by OldProspects on Dec 21, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
A-
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
B+
Too good a chance he ends up at DH and Taylor is most definitely blocking him in LF.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Adrian Cardenas
now that he is moved to 3rd base permanently.. what kind of B does he get?
I'll go B-
I just don’t love the combination at 3rd. At 2nd, I was intrigued. Could be a useful starter, but I just can’t see making a case for Cardenas as a B (or higher) due to the lack of power at a corner IF spot.
before anyone critiques me on my comment
I know that I shouldn’t have a that big an issue about position the 2nd/3rd position change. It’s just more of a personal preference thing.
B-
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
High end B
2B and 3B are equal according to the positional adjustments so if you think his bat played fine at 2B it’s just as fine at 3B, if not a little non-traditional. He has ARL on his side, has good contact ability and plate discipline, and the scouting has always been positive in regards to power.
RIP Nick Adenhart
B
He’s a true “pure hitter,” with great ability to barrel the ball, and that’s going to make sure that he’s an effective MLB player of some variety. But between defense that’s likely to be no more than average, subpar patience, and below average power potential, he’s never going to be confused for an All-Star.
Still, about as solid of a B prospect as you’ll find.
Sounds like Freddy Sanchez in his prime
He of the three All-Star appearances. So maybe there could be confusion.
Something like .300/.350/.430 for Cardenas at his peak with single digits in SBs and HR with plenty of doubles. The only difference is Cardenas has a much better walk rate.
by two fishsticks on Dec 21, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Straight B for me.
Still young for the level.
Also high BABIPs can be somewhat accounted for by high LD%; when you’re spraying 22.8% LD, its not like the BABIP is being fueled by weak grounders that are dribbling through.
And I like the doubles power, which first appeared to some extent in ‘07 and has reappeared in ’09, with his 41 dbls. He’s not going to hit a lot of HRs, but I still think ultimately, he’s a league average 3B who sticks at the position.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
B+
22 Years Old Next Season. Always struggles to adjust to new league. I definitely can see Cardenas tearing up AAA w/ a mid-June callup to play 3B.
Michael Taylor A-
Chris Carter A-/B+
Grant Desme B (AFL MVP)
Jemile Weeks B-
by Colorado Fan on Dec 23, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Jesus montero
if he is truly a DH long term, he cant get anything higher then a A-
Really?
I’m not saying I fully disagree with the fact that he could be considered an A-, but saying that “if” he is a DH, he can’t be an A, is kind of questionable. You’re telling me if you knew he was going to be a DH, but also knew that he would hit 40 HRs annually and hit for a high average, that you wouldn’t give him an A? Because that is the kind of player he can be. Not saying he will be, but it’s within his potential.
I think he’s a top 5 prospect in baseball, so I’d have to give him a straight A
I have to disagree here
For a DH to put up a 5.0 WAR in 600 PAs, he basically has to have a .430 wOBA. Its virtually impossible to project any minor league hitter to be that good, its even a stretch when talking about absolute ceilings. If Montero goes and puts up a .450 mark in Triple-A next year, that’s about as close as anyone can get. But if you want to say he projects as a .400 wOBA player, that’s basically a 4.0 WAR player for a DH, very good but not an elite superstar. And even that is quite a lofty projection for any prospect. There are typically 10-15 players in a year that crack that mark in a given season, and very few who do it consistently year-to-year. You may be able to make a decent case that Montero’s at least as likely as any other prospect be a .400 wOBA hitter, but even then, is a future 4.0 WAR player an A prospect?
Contrast this with other position players who might get A grades. If a corner outfielder like Heyward or Stanton puts up a .400 wOBA and plays average defense, that’s a built in extra 10 RAR for positional adjustments over a DH doing the same, making them 5.0 WAR at that level of production. Catchers like Buster Posey or Matt Wieters (talking about how he was graded when he was a prospect last year) need about a .360 wOBA with average defense to be 5.0 WAR players. Its much easier to talk about those guys as deserving a higher grade level than a DH unless its almost a no-brainer that the DH is going to be Pujols-esque, and if there’s a prospect that’s ever projected to consistently put up .430+ wOBA’s at the major league level, I’ve never heard of him.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 3:10 AM EST up reply actions
"if he is truly a DH long term"
If he stays with the Yankees, he may be a DH long term (if he moves off catcher) because of Mark Teixeira. However, in most organizations, he would be given a chance to play first base, and has a pretty good chance of sticking at first IMO. Could a first baseman not get higher than an A-? Based on his bat alone, he’s easily a top 10 prospect, most likely top 5, which is an A IMO.
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com
That may be true
But that wasn’t the question I was responding to, the question was “if you know a guy is going to be a DH (i.e. he won’t be a first baseman, regardless of the reason or specific situation) then he can’t be an A”. If Montero could be projected as an average defensive first baseman, he probably could be an A, but the standards are still pretty high, especially for a guy with no defensive experience at the position. a -5 UZR first baseman is basically the same value as a DH, and the same offensive standards apply.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
What if you knew a guy would hit like Barry Bonds in his prime but he could only DH
Would have to be an A. Obviously, that isnt the case here, but its an example of why we shouldnt talk in absolutes…
Also, the reports on Montero’s defense were that he improved some this year – though he is still terrible and basically lacks the physical ability to be a decent catcher (too slow). Chances of sticking probably went from one in a million to one in hundred though… that’s something.
I think he has to be an A or at least an A- because his bat is just so impressive and he’s such a sure thing. If you asked me to list guys I would be pretty sure are middle of the order hitters Smoak & Montero probably top the list, and Montero’s bat probably has a bit higher power ceiling than Smoak – though pretty large edge to Smoak in terms of patience.
Nothing I said was absolute
It was all hypotheticals, and I was basically making the same point as you. Sure, if Montero’s chances of sticking at catcher are 1 in 100, then fine, he gets a little value boost. I’m not saying its completely impossible to give Montero an A. I am saying that if you know a player is going to be a DH, or a -5 UZR first baseman, or a -10 UZR corner outfielder, you basically have to expect him to be a .430 wOBA hitter or better to give him an A, and there’s never been an example of such a prospect in history.
Also, most middle of the order first baseman and DHs aren’t the most valuable players in the league. Six of the Top 20 position player WARs in 2009 came from first baseman. One of them was Kevin Youkilis, who played nearly half his games at 3B. Another was Derek Lee, whose not really a “middle of the order hitter”. Another was Adrian Gonzalez, who is a good player and a middle of the order hitter, but had never before cracked a 4.0 WAR, let alone his 6.3 mark from 2009. The other three were Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Miguel Cabrera, guys who are perennially among the most valuable players in the game. And none of them were below average defenders.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2009 2:16 AM EST up reply actions
Im not sure you have to "project" him for a .430 wOBA hitter
If you give him a decent chance at that, but realistically project him for something less than that…
Well you have to hold him to the same value standard as anyone else
But the point is, he loses so much value unless he plays average or better defense at first base, or below average defense or better at another position. He still needs a .400+ wOBA just to be a 4 WAR player, and a .380+ wOBA just to be a 3 WAR player. If an average defensive corner outfielder has a .400 wOBA he’s 5 WAR, and a .380 wOBA he’s 4 WAR.
For me, when you use a grading system rather than a ranking system, the grades denote something other than the ranking, otherwise you’d just use a ranking system. The guys who are “A” prospects are guys who look pretty freakin’ likely to be 5-win players. Strasburg and Heyward are in a class of their own in this way, much more likely than anyone else, and then there’s a pretty big gap to the next group. I kind of have Stanton on the fringe, and happen to think the gap after him is really where its big. In the scope of his career, he’ll very likely wind up being an average defensive player (good early, average middle, poor late), and a wOBA around .400 seems pretty likely, maybe not for his entire career, but for a solid sustained period of it at least. He’s not quite Stras or Heyward either, but he has a pretty good shot at a being a perennial 5 WAR player. Matusz and Feliz kind of fit this description too, but pitchers are a different story. After that, you have Posey, Santana, and Montero who all look pretty likely to be 4 WAR players, but also look like becoming a perennial 5 WAR players is somewhat unlikely, and probably more unlikely for Montero than Posey or Santana. Any one of them seems to have a good chance at a 5 WAR season or two, most likely during their peak, but I have a hard time believing any of them has a real sustained run at it. Montero also has a level of floor that Posey and Santana don’t have because true catchers have an inherently higher risk than other positions. The guys who last at the position might have a few more high WAR seasons, but shorter careers. If Montero winds up with a .360 career wOBA, that floor is less than 2 WAR per season (assuming DH/-5 UZR first baseman). It just seems very unlikely he does anything less than that and very likely he can do that for a very long time. But a ~5 year run at a .420 wOBA? Seems tough to imagine. Tougher than Stanton with a 5 year run at a .400 wOBA.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 28, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
I agree generally with your points...
Im just saying that I don’t think I need to project Montero to be a consistent 5 win player to give him an A. He has potentially a special bat that could indeed do that and could put up some monster seasons. That’s enough for me.
As a side point, I think Stanton has good potential to be a better than average defender.
A
Easily.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Even at DH, I think he's an A
He’s a top ten prospect for sure, maybe even top five. He posted an OPS of .900 in AA at age 19 while spending 75% of his time behind the plate(I know, SSS and all). He has an elite bat that could be even better without the physical grind of catching.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Interesting
Would your grade change if he was on a NL team and you thought he played bad defense?
I’m just curious how a destined-for-DH prospect (I’m not saying Montero is one) gets graded based on the team and league he’ll play.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Nope
His bat is that good. My reply was worded as it was because the original comment on Montero was that he couldn’t be higher than an A- if he was a DH. I disagree with that. Hell, if he could stick at catcher I think he’d be #1 on my list probably, might be a toss up with him and Strasburg I guess.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Jeremy Hellickson
I think he is extremely underrated. Everything about this guy makes me think that he will be a pretty strong number 2. Not sure if he has true “ace” potential, but you never know. His floor seems really high to me too. I’m tempted to give him a straight A, and he probably deserves one based on his numbers, but I’m going to say an A-
A is out of the question to me
Maybe an A- and I wouldnt disagree but I say B+
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I’m not saying I would give him an A or even think about it, but if you looked at just numbers for the levels he pitched at this year, you’d have to consider an A. Based on scouting reports and stuff like that, I’d put him at an A- though. He’s probably in my top 5 pitchers in the minors, right behind Strasburg, Feliz, and Perez
A-
still dont understand why he is projected as a number 2 and not a ACE
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
I guess
I guess I don’t like projecting almost anyone to be a “true” ace, as there aren’t very many of those in the big leagues (yes you can be the ace of a pitching staff, but Scott Baker is by no means an “ace”). I don’t really think theres anything wrong with being a strong number 2, and I think his floor is a 3, so I obviously think he’s a very good prospect. And it really wouldn’t surprise me if he was a true ace. Nice to see him get some love on Baseball America this morning.
Anyone have any guesses on where he will rank on Baseball America’s top 100? In the top 20?
High end B+
Hellickson is probably in the top 25 or so for me(haven’t done a list yet, just spitballing here). I’ve liked this kid for awhile, glad to see him perform so well.
RIP Nick Adenhart
honestly
I’m tempted to say B-, but I guess I can buy B. Let’s see him succeed in the upper levels first.
B/B-
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
B+
One of the lowest ones. I dont grade the same as John, though.
I just love the tools and the overall package, and for me he did enough that I love the approach and skills that Ive seen
B
Love the potential but tends to be streaky. That will probably smooth out if he can stay on the field and get consistent playing time but with his track record and the A’s track record of keeping people healthy…
The monster at the end of this blog.
Starlin Castro
B+ or maybe an A- . The hype this guys gotten in the past few months maybe has him even a tad overrated, but he seems like a very solid prospect who has a super high ceiling.
comparison
I’ve only heard reports on him second handly from Cubs fans on MLBTR, but how they talk about him, he sounds familar to Dee Gordon of the Dodgers. Good comparison?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
Gordon vs. Castro
Gordon has better raw tools but Castro has more to offer with the bat . . .I think they project to be quite different at their respective peaks.
not at all a comparison
completely different players, other than they share the same position.
This is why I thought of them… they both play very strong defense and their bats could or could not develop.
Who is Castro’s MLB comparison? If Gordon reaches his potential, he could be the next Jose Reyes. Curious about Castro.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions
a decent comp
offensively that I’ve heard is Edgar Renteria in his prime. Yunel Escobar might be another decent comp.
The comp I keep coming back to is...
Jose Offerman, who bumbled his way to 1500+ hits with a career .360 OBP.
Seems to me that they have similar SB rates and low K-rates, both are rail thin (160lb and over 6’) and strong armed with 10 cent instincts at SS, Castro will probably have to move off SS to 2B or 1B/DH after a few years like Offerman did.
Castro had 39 errors this past year, will that be something he can significantly correct? Offerman had 125 errors from 1992-95 which may happen again in MLB unless they either hit like Hanley or Bill Bavasi finds GM work again.
The biggest differences are Castro projects to having more power (although with 3HR this year how high is that ceiling?) while walking significantly less.
by two fishsticks on Dec 22, 2009 3:45 AM EST up reply actions
castro
damn, reading this between how people haved raved about him at MLBTR, Im confused. My guess is he gets somewhere between what the MLBTR Cubs fans think, and what you are saying.
For comparison, fans at MLBTR have called him slick fielding with power on offense. Unless his stats dont show his true talent, some Cubs fans look quite dumb in my eyes.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 22, 2009 4:20 AM EST up reply actions
B+.
A bit overhyped at this point (JC came out with a tweet about 70 speed and 70 arm – the arm part I can buy), which I think has led to some folks coming out with more pointed comments of Castro and prove that point (KG comes to mind). That said, very young, had success at AA, and projects to add some power as he physically matures. How his physical maturation impacts his lateral movement and overall athleticism will determine his future. May be a guy that starts out at short in his youth but eventually moves to 2nd as he gets older. Noted as a good student and learner, which makes me hopeful that he’ll develop more discipline as he matures. Not too enthused about the sidearming, but I don’t think it’s that significant of an issue.
B
Maybe it’s that kinda out of left field Project Prospect speed thing. I know he did well making it to AA at 19 and is very projectable. But his numbers really aren’t much better than Ruben tejada at same age, full season AA. If Ruben is B-/C+, don’t think I can go A-/B+ on Starlin yet.
I've got no issues with that
It’s a fair statement. He’s jumped so much and when you get to AA, you typically, imo, don’t want to be quoting projection consistently on a player, and you have to almost do that for Castro.
Agree with toonster that that’s a fair comparison to make, and for what it’s worth, I’d have Tejada as a B-, maybe even a B. But I think I’d agree with Castro getting a B+ — he doesn’t profile very different statistically from Tejada, but scouts are unanimous in liking Castro’s tool set and ability to develop at least some power much more.
I wrote about this in the other thread
but I think the hype makes it hard for many to judge Castro fairly. You either buy it a lot, or you are in the KG set and want to, I believe he once said “set us straight”. (I believe … it was either his twitter or an interview).
I mean, if you look at him for who he is and what he could be, instead of the insane Alfonso power, Hanley comparisons that were made, I think a case could be made for B+ anyways (and I can buy a case for B as well). I mean, you should never compare the majority of prospects with a guy like Hanley (and Hanley wasn’t projected to be THIS good either).
But what Castro is is a very young shortstop who made a 2 3 level leap and ended up having a successful year at A+ and AA. He has some natural athleticism, although his game speed isn’t as good as his athleticism, imo. There’s lateral movement to suggest that, as of now, he can stick. There’s contact ability, good character/work ethic, and even if you forget some of the power hype, he should develop some natural power as he fills out. He has to work on improving his discipline (although it’s not horrible … it’s not Vitterian). It’s a little disconcerting that so much of Castro is tied into projection and physical maturation when he’s at AA, but he’s just that young.
I think there’s enough there to suggest a B+, but I think the hype clouds things.
B+
Easily. Totally underhyped.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
underhyped
He was top-ranked Cubs prospect at BA, and I think he has gotten a lot of people talking him up.
Whoa
Sorry, Thought it was the other Castro. I think. For some reason I thought he was the Padres Pitching Prospect
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Gotta go B+
He’s one of the best SS prospects in the game – but I sort of doubt he will ever be a real impact player
agreed gatling
I’m between a B+ and a B
hmmm…. I’d go B+ but barely.
Rene Tosoni is good.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 22, 2009 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
Julio Teheran
Young with a high ceiling, but he’s got a long ways to go. On upside I’d like to say B+ , but he is so far away and there are so many things that can go wrong that I’m going with a straight B
B
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
madison bumgarner
if his stuff is soo mediocre, how does he keep on getting people out without really striking people out a lot… is he that lucky or is it a skill?? i still think hes an A-
A-
I’m not sure what to think of him. I was one of the last guys off of his bandwagon. But still…I don’t know.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Logan morrison
B+
needs to show more power to be an A-
High end B+
He showed good power in 2007 and then again in 2008 in a pitchers park. His power was down this year but he broke his wrist to start the year, that kind of injury saps power for a bit. He mashed in the AFL last year and improved his plate discipline this year. There is an awful lot to like here.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Wilmer Flores
I missed the midseason thread, but I’m curious on him. John gave him a B+ last year and ordered him above Fernando Martinez, and his age got uber-exposed in full season ball this year. Can we really say his grade has changed much though? He didn’t produce, but wasn’t completely overmatched either, posting a 13.6 K% playing most of the year at age 17. He may not be a B+, but has his long-term projection really changed much since last year? I’m curious as to what the opinion is.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 1:18 AM EST reply actions
Yikes, that’s a tough one. I’d go B, though I can certainly see the argument for B+ — I just personally hate the argument “This guy held his own at such a young age!” as evidence for why someone who posted a .637 OPS is an elite prospect.
Right, absolutely
My point was more just that is that any different from the argument “Man, this guy tore up Rookie ball and was ahead of the ARL curve”? Rookie ball is still rookie ball, even if Wilmer was well ahead of that curve, its still a LONG way to start projecting him to be a succesful major leaguer, which is what most B/B+ prospects are, its just a question of what and how substantial their role will be.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
B-
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
B
People really overstated his long term projection. His poor running and lack of athleticism really bother me.
Agreed
I thought B+ was crazy aggressive last year, B is plenty awesome for a 17 year old kid.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
B
Hard to judge the ARL for a player so young and so far ahead of where he really belonged. The fact that he’s now a 3B at best but quite possibly a LF/1B type by the time he’s up takes some luster off him, his potential with the bat at SS was what really put him high on charts last year.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Brett Jackson
B? B-? Higher? Lower?
I’m mildly curious how people here would rank Brett. BA and KG have both shown him a fair amount of love in comments this offseason (I know KG hasn’t come out with his list yet for the Cubs, but he did an interview with Kaplan). 5-tool OF who had an excellent start. Still struck out a fair amount in the SSS at Low A, but he also showed that he could handle the bat quite well there from all indications (Cubs asked him to do some situational hitting there). I know I was very pleased when the Cubs drafted him, but part of me wonders at all the love this offseason. That said, 5-tool, up the middle players tend to get some scouts weak in the knees.
I’d probably lean B, but I’m curious.
B for now
Though I’m ready to go B+ if he starts off the season well, making adjustments, etc.
If he starts the season off well
I’d ponder a B+ as well. Early spec is that they are going to push him to AA Tennessee. Anyhow, thanks for a response. Moreso than Castro, I’m fascinated by the excitement by some for Brett Jackson (at least with Castro, it’s easy to see why – he reached AA at such a young age and had success).
B
As of now.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 21, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
B
If you compare him to Domonic Brown (another toolsy outfielder at a similar stage in development), you find they’re not all that different talent-wise . . .Brown is probably a future ML 55-60 hitter, while Jackson is a bit less (somewhere between 45 and 55), but Jackson’s a true CF. The difference in the grades at this point is polish, IMO.
I just really hope they don’t push him too hard. He might have the raw talent to succeed initially, but doing anything less than giving him a full initial season in the FSL suggests that the Cubs really haven’t learned that much over the last few years with player development.
Hak-ju Lee
After touching on Lee in the grade disagreements thread, I’m mildly curious what grade people would give him as well. Toolsy kid with the athleticism to stick at short. Arm strength is good, but probably not plus (but more than enough for short). Very fast (plus-plus speed I believe was in one writeup), good quickness, but he’s going to physically mature quite a bit. Slap hitter with solid discipline who, by most accounts, would need to tremendously rework his swing to generate more than gap power. Solid slash lines this year, although neutralized lines were a bit lower. Reportedly good character. Top ranked guy in BA’s NWL rankings this year, although this year’s NWL crop that qualified for BA’s listing wasn’t all that impressive from what I recall.
The big question is how he physically matures, but I’d imagine that Lee grades as either a B or a B-. I’ve been turning this over for awhile as a Cubs fan … I think I lean towards B-. Too much is unknown, so far away, doesn’t project to have power. As he moves up, if he stays at short, I’d ponder a higher grade, but he’s just so far away and indications are that, unlike Castro, who jumped to A+, Lee will go up to Peoria (and potentially be with a lot of the Cubs Korean signings). I can see some people going B, though.
he's okay
Don’t see him anywhere near a B at this point. But he did pretty well for a young guy making his pro debut. B- seems fair.
see
I almost feel guilty as a Cubs fan to suggest a B-. But I do think that the Lee hype has gotten a bit ahead of his overall combination of ability/potential right now.
not really
He did well in his pro debut, no getting around that.
Unlike you, I would be a little concerned about arm strength . . .that actually DOES tend to affect a player’s chances to stick at shortstop and their ability to play shortstop well, which I’m sure you know by now after watching way too much Ryan Theriot.
I am concerned about arm strength
It might not have come across, but I am concerned about it. I guess I didn’t emphasize it that much here after writing about it in the other thread. The reports have suggested that he doesn’t have his plus arm anymore, but still has a very good arm. I think some folks expect some of that arm to come back, but it might not. My main concern, defensively, is how he’ll do at short if he ends up around 6’2" 195-200, as has been guessed, if he doesn’t have the great arm. Offensively, he’s basically, well, Che-Hsuan Lin.
rare time that I may be aggressive
but I like a B grade for him. Considering age, performance, potential, he has the chance to be really good. A strong A+ campaign and he could really jump.
B
I don’t think a B grade is really all that aggressive either. Obviously not a B+, but a B- would be very conservative.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 21, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Che-Hsuan Lin
Might as well ask here. John gave him a flat C. I find that a bit low.
What he is: plus-plus speed, plus arm, excellent overall defensive CF. Very disciplined youngster (76/70 K/BB, which is somewhat skewed by the 19/5 in April). Makes good contact, runs the bases well.
What he isn’t/concerns: there likely isn’t going to be anything more than gap power. Some more natural power is likely to occur, but at max, he’ll be a gap power guy who occasionally gets one out. The leg action has been written about numerous times. It looks like it was a bit improved this year, but it makes me wonder if he might have consistency issues somewhat akin to Kosuke Fukudome (not saying they are similar, simply noting that Kosuke had a couple bad, bad months this year.).
I’m just hard pressed to buy him as a C. I would lean towards C+, and I think there’s a case to be made for B-. He’s going to be young for AA. His neutralized lines do indicate the potential for more (but in case anyone reads too much into that … there’s only so far you can go with neutralized lines – I do think it can be utilized as an indicator of the potential to do more, though). Someone’s argued that he might be nothing more than a 4th OF. That very well may be, but I believe that the combination of discipline, plus-plus defensive ability, tools, plus being young and being in AA next year deserves more than a C.
lin
Not a B-. His bat looks really fringy and his defense is good but let’s not go overboard . . .not every dude is GG-worthy. C+ and I’m good with that.
I'm curious on the 2nd part
I’m fine with C+.
Everything I’ve read, heard, talked to suggests that he’s the best defensive CF in the minors right now. I’m curious if there’s something you know to suggest that his defensive isn’t that good.
confused
I said his defense was “good,” so I’m not quite sure where you got the idea that I said his defense “isn’t that good”.
All I’m saying is that caution is not a bad thing.
ah okay
I initially thought your “let’s not go overboard … not every dude is GG-worthy” was meant to suggest that he didn’t have plus defensive ability.
C+
Defense and plate discipline are positives, but the bat has too many questions to go any higher.
RIP Nick Adenhart
i will go B-
plus plus speed and arm with at least plus range. His bat isn’t terrible either. 13.3 K% and an 11.9 BB% is excellent for a 20 year old in A+. His 342 wOBA isn’t bad considering his glove and speed and I think he stands to improve on that.
maybe I'm being conservative
But I’ll go B. I want to see cut down on the K’s a bit before going B+, but that might be a personal preference type issue.
+1
Strikeouts and being a first baseman (granted, a good one, but still a first baseman) make him a B for me as well.
Yeah, he's a B+
His bat is a tick below Chris Carter’s in my book, but the fact that he will provide some defensive value puts them on pretty equal footing I think.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Zach Von Rosenberg...
B- or C+. Im going with B- because of his mixture of stuff, projection, and poise for a high school pitcher.
I agree with a B-
Although until he gets some real playing time in professional ball I wouldn’t complain about a C+ either.
Id like some more info on him
How polished is he? Will he start 2010 in AA or back at A+?
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
He’ll need minor league work, and will almost certainly start in the Cal. He’s decently toolsy, and the area that he needs the most improvement in is plate discipline. The reports on his defense are varied, with some giving glowing reports (BA) and others predicting him to move. If he can stay at SS, I like him a lot.
Do you think he will advance to AA by seasons end?
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I think the A's will be crying in their beer if he isn't in AA by mid-July
The monster at the end of this blog.
That seems a bit aggressive.
I think he’ll make AA sometime this season, but by mid-July would mean that the A’s are either fast tracking him or he absolutely dominated the Cal.
When you think about it...
Mid-July leaves 6-7 weeks in the minor league season.
And yeah, I think the A’s are hoping to fast track him.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That would give him about 50 games in AA in his first season (his 2009 was too negligible to count). That would put him on the same path that Pedro Alvarez is on. It’s certainly possible, but I wouldn’t expect him to rise that quickly.
If they were planning on fast tracking him, wouldn’t they have sent him to the AFL?
B
He did struggle a bit in his junior year, but I think this is a classic case of the pendulum swinging too far the other way. The tools that scouts loved a year ago are still there, and if he can stick at short, B might look conservative this time next year.
Matt Dominguez
I still say he’s a borderline B/B+. The BABIP issues concern me a bit, but I do like his improved plate discipline as he moves up and he’s still shown good power.
B+
Probably aggressive, but I’m a believer. He’s probably the best defensive third baseman in the minors, and if you look at the components for his FSL line this year, it’s pretty solid for a 19-year old in a pitching-dominated league:
.262/.333/.420 — 9.1% K — 17.8% BB — .158 ISO — .295 BABIP
The Marlins were stupid for rushing him to Double-A, and while you can’t ignore those numbers, it’s hard to put much stock into what a 19-year old did in 97 Double-A at bats when he wasn’t ready. He’d be best served with another year and a half, or two full years, in the minors, but he’s gonna be a good ’un.
I can buy this
He has good power, he’s great defensively, and the improved walk rate helps. Could be similar to Adrian Beltre or the good/healthy version of Eric Chavez.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Andrew Lambo..
spent the entire 09 in AA in his age 20 season.. and did not do very well… and ba and some other sites have him now as a 4th outfielder… is he a B or B-? probably B- right?
B/B-
Depends on if you think his first month was true or the later is him. Remember, the Dodgers have pushed him and it could have simply been a need to adjust… I’d say B-
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
As a 20yo in AA?
And completely skipping A+/advanced A ball.
Yeah, that looks like Dodgers rushing him up, big time (trying to find that Manny replacement for 2011 on the cheap?). I can’t see him lower than a B-.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
I REALLY hope that they realize we dont need Lambo to be MLB ready in 2011. We can handle having a 1 yr guy. Also, Trayvon Robinson has burst onto the scene. He is a CF, but he could potentially play RF, with Kemp in CF and Ethier in LF, his more natural position…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
Zach Britton
Maybe I’m being fussy . . .but I have no clue how he got a B+. His stuff is pretty good and obviously the steady improvement in strikeouts is nice to see, but I can’t help but think that people are getting sucked in by the saber-friendly GB rate. What doesn’t seem to get much talk is that his walks spiked last year along with a slight bump in hits allowed, which makes me think the higher strikeouts were more the result of pitching to get more Ks rather than a jump in raw stuff.
He looks like a nice mid-rotation arm, but I have a strong feeling that in a year’s time, we’re all going to be saying “yeah, he’s okay . . .but how in the world could we ever think he was a B+ prospect?”
I don’t entirely disagree, but I think what KG wrote back in November is instructive on the matter…
Perfect World Projection: Britton draws some wide-ranging views from scouts, as there were some who felt he should be three spots higher or lower than this ranking. There are many who think he has true star potential.
So on a scouting level, a lot of people are coming away very, very impressed. Add that to what you admit is a pretty good statistical profile, and there’s a more-than-plausible argument that that’s a B+.
Not saying I entirely disagree with you, though. I’d be torn between B and B+ personally, though I think I’d settle on B+ in the end.
+1
Mid rotation at best. He’s getting overrated because of his numbers in some sexy categories. Stuff just isnt up to snuff with the numbers. Pretty good, but not a B+. Solid B, and one of the better ones.
funny that you ask
He’s really different from Britton and the two would never get compared to one another if they weren’t in the same organization, so I’m going to presume that the main reason you’re asking me about Arrieta is to see if I’ve got some sort of anti-Oriole bias.
Re: Arrieta . . . the fastball speaks for itself, and he’s done a decent job of improving other parts of his game. A little skeptical that he’ll be consistently well-rounded enough to be more than a No. 3, but upside is there for more. If nothing else works out he might make for a nice closer, although Brandon Erbe will likely have things to say about that as well.
Back and forth between B and B+. For the moment I’ll say B+, but on the lower end of spectrum of players receiving that grade. Hopefully the O’s let Arrieta spend all of next year in AAA . . .or if they’re desperate for major league help, at least let him adjust out of the bullpen.
So what did you think of BA ranking Britton ahead of Arrieta?
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
I can see the ranking either way. I dont have an argument either way.
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Agree completely (again) with mrkupe and gatling below
The Arrieta-Britton thing does work as a perfect illustration of why you can’t just take minor league numbers on their face, untranslated and outside of scouting and extrapolate them to project major league performance…
and his walks spike a bit but..
his strikeouts went up and he still improved his k/bb rate by a bit
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
B, borderline B+
Don’t think he’s got ace potential, but I think his potential is slightly higher than your average midrotation guy.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Eh
I think we’re making too much out of this right now. Britton looks like a B+ right now not merely due to the components, but due to his trendlines – at 21, his stuff has continued to improve at every level while preserving his elite ground ball rate, and all from a lefty is a very intriguing package.
We all know how important the AA transition is. The way I see it, if Britton continues his trend of improving his stuff, the rating will be a no-brainer, and if he stagnates or regresses, then he’ll move down a peg. His trends show the upside there. But quibbling over whether or not we think he’ll attain it seems pointless.
Jordan Lyles, Jason Castro, Jiovanni Mier
I’d like to see each to get a B+, but each one has some questions. They are probably all B+/B guys, but quite different players. Very curious to see John’s grades and other opinions.
I'll go
B down the line for me.
Mier – I want to see a bit more before going B+. Very exciting, but I guess that’s my nature. Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if some folks went B- on Mier.
Castro – I’ll go B as well. I want to see how the bat plays next year.
Lyles – I’ll go B as well. I think he’s an odd case – either overly praised or overly bashed this offseason. Good stuff, want to see how the secondary stuff plays/develops at a higher level.
fun with grades for Astros
Lyles gets a B. Good command guy with decent stuff across the board, young enough to develop in many different ways. Gets a slight bonus for the strong performance this year.
Castro gets a B+. I think he might somehow still be underrated by those who haven’t gotten over Justin Smoak yet, but I think he makes for a pretty exciting prospect. Only question to ask is just how much power he hits for . . .he’s no slugger in the making, but I think he won’t disappoint. Just needs to get some more experience.
Mier gets . . .a B, but I’ve liked him since before the draft. Probably will not excite too many with his rate numbers next year, as it tends to go with really young middle infielders in full season ball. But he’s got the talent to be an above-average shortstop across the board.
matt moore
big K numbers but walks wayy too many.. has many question marks.. anyone can argue for an A- all the way to a B.. i would give him a B+
wht are some concerns with this guy? athletism? delivery? i remember hearing something about him being a future reliever..
I'd go B+
I’ve said this for Withrow, but it applies here too. I think he’s on the same tier as Simon Castro who got a B+ from John.
Andrew Cashner
B? B+? or lower?
What he has: Plus-plus fastball with a slider that has plus movement but is inconsistent. Transitioning back to starter. No significant mechanical/delivery concerns as of now.
Concerns: Changeup is still in the developmental phase. Stuff fell off as he pitched deeper into games. Inconsistent secondary stuff led to problems in AA that wasn’t as big an issue in A+.
I’m guessing most will have him as a B. I still think his future is in the pen, where he won’t need a 3rd pitch as much.
Well
I’d probably go B
but I’d have to say based on scouting reports I’ve seen he’s closer to B+ than he is B-.
that could be just me
Rene Tosoni is good.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 21, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yup, B+ for me. I know he’s going to wind up at first, I know his power ceiling is somewhat in question, but I couldn’t possibly rank a guy who’s almost a sure thing to routinely post OBPs north of .370 any lower than B+.
A player with a .355 OBP in the PCL
is almost a sure thing to post OBPs north of .370?
B+
I’m not worried about the bat, he’ll hit well enough that even at 1B he’ll be an above average player.
RIP Nick Adenhart
I say B+ as well
but Im not confident he will at least be above average – definitely average, but any more than that Im not sure.
B+
Losing the opportunity (however fleeting) that he could play 3B keeps him from A-. i’d also like to see a bit more pop and a few more walks, but he more than held his own as a 22 year old in AAA. He could break out big by the middle of next year.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Even if he played 3B
He wasnt at all good at it. He could be good at 1B (we dont know yet, maybe his mobility issues still hamper him there).
A- for me
high ceiling and played well at a young age for his levels
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
A-
Results match the stuff; both are very good. Has ARL to boot, and by all accounts his maturity and poise are excellent. Yeah, he’s still a pitcher with little upper minors experience, but at this point you’d have to imagine that injuries are the only thing that could derail him at this point (note: not saying he is an injury risk for whatever reason, just the generic injury risk of any given pitcher).
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
B+
I gotta see some upper-level success before I put him in the A- range. He’s a high B+, but there’s still plenty of risk here.
tough one
I think I’m leaning B right now.
B
until he proves he can do it at a higher level..
B or maybe even B-
I don’t see what’s so special about him.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
sort of the same
I mean … I can see what’s special (the speed) but I’m not sure there’s enough to suggest that he’ll be a good enough player to justify a B yet.
Tools, Tools, Tools
has great defense, gap power, SPEED, plate discipline and is REALLY young. Could be next Reyes or Christian Guzman.I think he’d get a B or higher because of projectiability. Scouts are already raving about him…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
http://www.truebluela.com/2009/6/23/922919/the-dee-gordon-show-east-west-a
this says it better than I could. He is young and very raw. the fact that he is doing what he is doing with his rawness is… amazing
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
yeah hes young but 21 in mwl is not by any means young..
hes the defintion of RAW
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I mean, what’s to like here?
A guy that has all the tools to be well above average at SS
Gets on base at a very good clip
Speed coming out of his ears
Prototypical leadoff man (not the Dusty Baker version that has speed but never is on base to use it)
Has flashed some decent gap power
No, nothing special at all……
christian friedrich
is he a B+ A- or B? only at A+ ball this season even tho he did really well..
A-
Love the curveball
Need to see him at AA though
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 21, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
B+
Reluctantly, though. I love me some Friedrich, and his numbers were excellent for this year, but a 1st round college pick with a great secondary pitch can carve up the lower levels on that pitch alone. I want to see something at the upper levels before I move him into the A range.
Agreed on this.
If he tears up AA, he moves up to A- or even A
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
absolutely...I'm already high on him, but
if he performs at a similar rate in AA, he shoots up for me.
agreed
I was contemplating A- for awhile, but that seems awful high. B+ sounds right. I almost think that, for a B+ guy, that he is a bit underrated.
was shocked he started in Asheville
There was no way he was going to be seriously challenged before AA, and we still don’t even have a clue as to how well he’ll do there.
Great upside, though. Something like Rich Hill minus the control problems. Can’t decide if his relative polish with upside gives him an A-. At the very least he’s among those at the top of the B+ column.
Straight A
Love Matusz and I think he has potentially the highest floor of all MiLB eligible SP’s.
Not to mention his ceiling is that of a true ace (not of the Scott Baker variety).
Well above average command of 4 at least MLB average pitches, left-handed, and outstanding make-up.
I think it's as close to a guarantee as possible that he'll become a solid #2 SP
at the very least. There are guys with higher upsides (Perez & Mejia just to name a couple), but they have question marks. I see absolutely NOTHING questionable about Matusz.
give him an A
When the biggest problem we can find with a major league ready LH starting pitcher is “can’t hit 95”, I’d say that’s a pretty ringing endorsement of just how good he is. Really no flaws in his game. He’s not 100 percent can’t miss as we’ll need to see how his command comes together at the major league level, but he’s the second best pitching prospect in the game and I don’t think it’s very close after him and Strasburg. The next guy in would be . . .who? Martin Perez? Jeremy Hellickson? I think I’m forgetting somebody off the top of my head who would be up there as well.
thanks
That was the name I was missing . . .but is he a true A? Awesome raw stuff and pitched well in the majors, but he did it out of the pen. Relief work obviously plays to his strength (killer fastball) and covers his weaknesses (control, inconsistent pitches other than fastball) . . .I could see him struggling pretty badly in the majors as a starter right now.
Last Cubs one for now - Jay Jackson
I think this is going to be the most fascinating Cubs grade for me to see, largely because I’m a fan. That said
Positivies: FB improved a tick this year, sitting more comfortably in the low-mid 90’s. In short stints, he gunned it up the high 90’s. 2 solid breaking balls (old report was plus slider/improving, solid curve, but there seems to be some that are arguing that his curve is better now than his slider, which would mean two plus breaking balls). Improving changeup (which really means … he started throwing it but has a lot of work to do). Arm action is fairly clean/solid by most accounts. Good athlete, only his second year of fulltime pitching. There was a stretch early this year in the Southern League where he was dang good (May/June), but then
Negatives: Then … he collapsed. First came the control, with a starting 7 plus walk rate in July. Then came the off-field issues that led to his demotion. He went down and dominated A+, as he should as his stuff is just too good. It doesn’t, though, let us know how serious to judge the control issues. The other main negative is that, from a delivery perspective, he’s a thrower that doesn’t use his own body.
I’m going to be fascinated with what John decides here. Granted, I can’t see anyone going C+, so it’ really an issue of B/B-. My gut feeling is that the character issues are more an issue of youth, than a severe problem, but it is worth watching (and has led to some rumors/spec). The bigger issue is the delivery and the control problems, and how serious they are. On the positives for that are his athleticism and his rawness to fulltime pitching, along with the fact that he supposedly picks things up well. But any severe issues there, and there could be some serious concerns. Anyhow, I lean B, and I think he’s the Cubs best SP prospect, although a case could be made for Carpenter and Cashner (if he shows durability, he’s got the most upside of the Cubs top 3 arms).
I do too
but I’ve been accused of being a Cubs homer on him (… as I should be as a cubs fan) by Cubs fans … His collapse during the season made it hard for me to argue B+.
But … if he had been at A+ this year, instead of being pushed to AA, and if he had maintained those rates he had at A+ for the whole year, I think a lot more people would be excited. I think there’s just some confusion right now, and justifiably so.
Domonic Brown
A- or B+?
Figured John would be on the fence on this one, and he came out at B+. Perfectly understandable, though it seemed like a number of people had him pegged as an A-. Thoughts?
A- here
My love of awesome defensive CFers. A .205 ISO, so its not like he’s a slap hitter, and very good plate discipline.
I could see him finishing the season in AAA, although I do agree that he needs to stay in AA for the first half of the season.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
that should be "I could see him finishing the season at MLB"
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
I love awesome defensive center fielders too… which is why I like Jennings better than Brown.
Brown’s a right fielder, and even his D there is all potential. He’s got the speed and the athleticism to be a plus defender, and his arm is plus too (there was some question about whether he should be a pitcher when the Phillies drafted him). But his reads and jumps are just bad right now: TotalZone doesn’t like him (-9 runs/150 in Clearwater), and scouts don’t either.
I still think there’s an argument for an A- here, but it’s more tied into his continued power development and him turning his tools into skills on the defensive side.
B+
Young, lots of potential, but not sure he’s quite as good as some suggest. Has work to do on defense and batting average might not be stellar against upper level competition. On the bright side, I do buy into his power development . . .and as a power/speed guy with the potential to be a solid defensive RF, he’s a nice guy to have.
Aaron Hicks
B+? I think he’s due to break out in a big way in 2010
depends on your orientation
Show Me Results grade: B to B-
Trust the Tools/Scouting Reports: B to B+
I go w/ B+.
Hicks
B+ , but barely
Rene Tosoni is good.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 21, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
B-
until he throws more then 45 innings..
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Well, this is ironic now, Bravein07…
I say B as well. Would take a lot from a short season pitcher to convince me to go higher.
by PhillyFriar on Dec 22, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
Reese Havens: B
This is a guy I just traded for in a keep sim league; I love the walks and power at the middle infield, and am banking on that BABIP to swing back t/w the median. I think he’s a 2B, though a bat first type. Is Marcus Giles a decent comp? (Though it’s amazing how quickly Giles bottomed out.)
almost brought him up about 2 hours ago,
but didn’t know where I could even rank him.
I look at Havens as a potential 20 HR guy at 2B, with nice plate discipline.
Giles isn’t a bad comp, although he has less game speed and potentially a better batting eye (sans 2003).
I agree, B
His most appealing qualities pre-professional debut were his fundamentals and work ethic. He’s not terribly toolsy or anything, but he’s also someone who really could play pretty solid second base given time to adjust. He didn’t have the athleticism for SS, but he has plenty for 2B. There really isn’t a huge hole in his game, he just really has to stay healthy.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
Also
Any prospect the Red Sox were supposedly disappointed to miss out on gets a plus in my book.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
Kirk Nieuwenhuis: B-/C+?
The numbers don’t speak well of his defense, but he’s a power/speed threat who probably has some skill development left in him in terms of his flaws, specifically defense and managing the zone better. I think he may take a little while but could be a very good player somewhere in the Jayson Werth or Corey Hart mold, i.e. a big outfielder with fringey defense in center but plus in a corner with above average speed and power. Most of his development is going to depend on how much athleticism he retains as he fills out and how much better he learns to control the zone.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 8:31 PM EST reply actions
Kirk
he’s gotta be a B- IMO
I agree that his speed is probably underrated somewhat.
Rene Tosoni is good.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 21, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
C+ for now
If he can cut down on the K’s some while maintaining everything else I can see him in the B range this time next year.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Meddler
random off topic question, but is your screen name in referral to August Burns Red?
Hah, nope
It is music related, but I’ve been using it for a while now. Many years ago I used to use it to post on a Pink Floyd group, as a reference to the album “Meddle,” and I kinda liked it so I kept it. Its actually changing soon to my real name, Mark Himmelstein, since I’m joining the Front Page authors over at Amazin’ Avenue.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Nate Eovaldi and Ethan Martin
Both power arms who are really young. Have #2 or higher potential. Grade?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 9:15 PM EST reply actions
B for Martin
Needs to get the walks under control to move up much higher.
C+ probably for Eovaldi, I’d like to see some improvement in the K/BB ratio.
RIP Nick Adenhart
agreeed
eovaldi is a sleeper for next season to breakout… hes 2 years off his TJ surgery now and i expect some bigger K numbers next season
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Ks for Eovaldi were down because of the TJS. However, he is no doubt a power arm and the Ks should come next year.
With Martin, he reminds me of Kershaw, with a little less talent(obviously, not many are close to Kershaw’s talent), because he has the Ks, but needs to harness the walks. Do you think its an easy B, or is it close to B+?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
i think its an easy B
his control is really bad and BA thinks he might end up as a reliever.. i dont believe that tho..
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
I dont see how he becomes a reliever unless he has serious trouble developing secondary pitches… I think he becomes a good starter, and needs time to prove himself.
It will be interesting to see what he gets, probably sometime this week..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
Trayvon Robinson
Came into the year as a toolsy guy, like Kemp did a few years ago. Last year, he put it together. Increased power, kept the speed and defense, contact and is already being put in the 2011 opening day lineup by some. Ks are a bit of a problem, but with power, speed, ability to walk and contact, along with defense, whats the grade?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 9:21 PM EST reply actions
i would give him a B-
but i think it’ll be next season when everyone finds out how good this guy is… he became a Walk machine the end of the year and in the afl and AA… he has really improved.. and he hit 17 homers but with a lot of Ks
by matthewmafa on Dec 21, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
I think most would agree his Ks need to go down, but if he gives up power, speed, defense but strikes out, Id be OK with it… I think he is B-, but next year is definetly a year to prove it wasnt a fluke
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 21, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
Ackley
gets a B+ from me, but on the higher spectrum of it.
I love everything about his bat, and while he should be a consistent .300 hitter, the potential lack of power holds him back a bit.
I can’t see him being more than a 12-15 HR/year type guy, making batting average that much more important.
A-
Goes up to an A if he has a productive first half and/or makes a successful transition to 2B.
hmmm
that is a tough one for me,
I’d probably go B but I couldn’t go any higher…..
Rene Tosoni is good.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 21, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Couple of Marlins 'spects
OF Scott Cousins C+ last year does he stay the same?
I’m tempted to raise him to B-, but I’d probably stay C+
and P Ryan Tucker (B) last year..
how far does he fall, B- ?
Rene Tosoni is good.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 21, 2009 10:28 PM EST reply actions
Michael Saunders
B+.
His debut was certainly not inspiring at the end of last year, but he seems to be a one level at a time sort of guy (like Chris Carter or Wilson Ramos) who takes a couple of spins to adjust. But he (like they) always seems to adjust.
He might have a couple of all-star seasons in him, a la Rusty Greer, or Corey Hart if Hart had better discipline. Actually, I suppose Jayson Werth is a pretty good comp, production-wise, in terms of Saunders’ ceiling, though hopefully it doesn’t take until Saunders’ late 20s and three or four organizations to get there.
Esmil Rogers- Rockies
I don’t even have a real clear idea of how to grade him – a B? – but I’d just like anybody’s informed ideas on what they’ve seen of him, what his potential is, etc.
He was impressive in AA and not so much in AAA but, there were some positive reports on the converted OF’r.
I think BA overrated him horribly in their midseason top 50,
but the AA numbers were outstanding, and although he struggled in AAA, I’ll give him a mulligan because he’s still learning how to pitch. I’d say he’s a B, but closer to a B- than a B+. Top 100 prospect for me, but in the 80-100 range.
mike montgomery
tim melville
danny duffy
aaron crow
All are B or B+ prospects probably.. could 1 be a b-.. also how would you rank these 4
Montgomery is clearly a B+
Crow is probably a B+. I want to give Melville a B+, but I doubt John gives him one. Duffy is one of the better Bs – stuff doesnt quite match his performance.
Rank
1) Montgomery
2) Crow
3) Melville
4) Duffy
good ranking sir
i agree
originally had Duffy above Melville, but i think Melville’s stuff will play better as they both progress.
baseball rules.
I'd rank them
Montgomery, Crow, Melville, Duffy. First two are B+ grades, the other two are B grades. Impressive group of pitchers there, plus Lamb and Dwyer too.
RIP Nick Adenhart
ad the left argules
who they recently signed…
watch out for kc pitching in 4 years… they will be great.. too bad greinke will be gone by then
by matthewmafa on Dec 22, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
lol at the misspellings
and the lefty arguelles*
by matthewmafa on Dec 22, 2009 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
B
Probably has the highest floor of any guy (non uber-prospect division) in the minors. There’s value in that, so he merits a solid B in my book, and probably closer to a B+ than a B-.
Gotta go B-
Strikeouts really bother me. Very interesting guy. Not sure what to make of him. Love his tools.
Very very very high B-, borderline B
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
B-
Still question whether the bat’s going to hold up at higher levels — I mean, the guy did whiff in over 30% of his at bats in Low-A this year… as a 23-year old.
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