Who's the better bet?

by captstrato on Dec 20, 2009 11:14 AM EST

I'm looking for some input to the following question..........G Beckham, A Mccutchen and Porcello...... who stands to have the better career over the next 5-10 years? Think of it as starting your own franchise and you have these as your choices to start. Does Beckham's value go up if he sticks at 2B? Can McCutchen hit with some power to go with his speed and defense to make him an above average CF? Was Porcello's rookie year an anomoly or can he perform similarly in the coming years? I'd like to hear from the panel of so called experts on this.

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here:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/12/8/1190735/last-years-rookies-top-community

McCutchen was 3rd, Beckham 5th, Porcello 6th.

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Dec 20, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions

McCutchen

is the best bet. I’m a huge Gordon Beckham fan, but McCutchen’s a quality defensive center fielder with power and the speed to swipe bags at an 81% success rate. Beckham has a higher power ceiling, but I think McCutchen’s the superior overall player.

If you’re asking about fantasy baseball rather than real baseball, Beckham might have extra value if a league doesn’t single-out center fielders due to positional scarcity (though McCutchen, as a guy with power and speed, is really, really valuable). In real baseball, though, the positional adjustment for 2B and 3B are the same.

by slamcactus on Dec 20, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions

It also

depends a little on the type of league you are in. Porcello won 14 games as a twenty year old and had decent numbers across the board except for strikeouts. That is pretty valuable in a roto league. Mc Cutchen’s numbers aren’t huge (except the SB’s) when compared to other OF’s. Usually you are just drafting a number of OF’s and not worried about a CF, so the actual position isn’t too big of a deal.

Beckham moving to 2b is pretty big. His power potential at that position huge and he could quickly be a top offensive 2b. There aren’t a lot of 2b’s w/ his type of pop (Utley, Uggla).

The biggest question is how you think they all will progress. Porcello had a better rookie year than Felix, will he take the next step.

Is McCutchen a leadoff or number two hitter, or more of a run producer?

and will Beckham tap into his power potential.

by SoCalSoxFan on Dec 20, 2009 3:12 PM EST reply actions

I'd take Cutch

Followed by Beckham. Porcello’s a not-terribly-close 3rd.

by nivarsity on Dec 20, 2009 6:53 PM EST reply actions

clarification

My post has to do more with a keeper league. I’ve gone the prospect route, trading veterans for elite prospects. I know Beckham’s value escalates with the move to 2B, but will he hit more for average with similar pop than a guy like Uggla and bring some defense to the table? Can Cutch put up some numbers similarly to a guy like Sizemore in the power dept or is he more of a speed defense CF? Pitchers to me are hard to figure with injury possibilities down the road.

Brian G

by captstrato on Dec 20, 2009 7:42 PM EST reply actions

League

Does defense count in some way in your league? If not, do you use LF/CF/RF instead of 3 OF spots? If the answer is no to either(or both) of these questions then I think it’s probably Beckham/McCutchen/Porcello. If D counts or you split the OF positions up, then I’d flip Cutch and Beckham around. And this isn’t to slight Porcello at all, he’s very good, I just bet on the bat more times than not with limited data to go on.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Dec 21, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

threesome

Cutch didn’t impress me a lot when I saw him in Altoona, seemed more like a top of the lineup guy than a middle of the order guy. I believe my actual analysis was he reminded me more of Willy Taveras than Carlos Beltran. This was a few years ago obviously, and when there was the debate on what type of player he was/is.

I don’t know if Beckham has Uggla power, but will probably be a 25 jack type of guy, which, at 2b is rare and would put him only behind Utley.

and Porcello has great stuff, if he can miss bats he could be a front of the rotation guy for 15 years.

by SoCalSoxFan on Dec 21, 2009 12:26 AM EST reply actions

Porcello

I think too many people get hung up on K/9 with Porcello. If he didn’t have the stuff to strike guys out I would worry, but he has the stuff. He has started more games in MLB than he did in the minors, he just still has a lot to learn. I believe the K’s will come up to a respectable level over the next couple years as he matures. Some people are way too quick to dismiss the fact that the kid came up and stayed, and was very impressive for a 20 year old with very little experience.

I believe that Beckham will be very solid occasional all star type, McCutchen will be very good, and if he starts getting on base a little bit more or hitting for more power will be a superstar, but its really hard to not go with Porcello IMO. Being able to slot a young pitcher in your rotation for years who has already had success is just too valuable.

by GoldenSpikes24 on Dec 21, 2009 9:35 AM EST reply actions

+1

I love me some Porcello. The guy’s a GB machine, ala Mr. Roy Halladay.

by rmarx on Dec 21, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

For a more traditional 5x5 fantasy baseball league

I would go with Beckham. All 3 are obviously really close though, and I can totally see the argument for any of them. What separates Beckham for me are 2 factors:

1. Defense does NOT count in non-strat leagues, which to me is the big separator between Cutch and Beckham.

2. Beckham will now be playing a premium position – 2B. Even if the Sox slide him over to 3B in a couple years, he will still have lots of positional value. Cutch is just an “OF” in most formats, meaning replacement value is much higher.

by guru4u on Dec 21, 2009 10:46 AM EST reply actions