Dynasty Deal with lots of young talent - Stanton, Bruce, Wood++

by Wilbur Wood on Dec 2, 2009 8:33 AM EST

Dynasty Deal with lots of young talent - Stanton, Bruce, Wood, Jones, Kemp

Thought this trade might generate some good dialogue on some view on some of the involved players most of which are still very young (< 25) or still prospects. I don't normally tee up fantasy trades on this site unless however I feel that they involve young players that I know many here have strong views on. Any views on the deal or players involved are appreciated.

Context: 16 team Mixed 5x5 Dynasty League, no salaries. Both teams are playoff caliber teams. Ignore any positional needs as it is not a real factor for either team.

Team A (mine) Gives up:
Adrian Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Michael Stanton

Team B Gives up:

Matt Kemp, Adam Jones, Brandon Wood (or a possible alternate prospect).

Team A is giving up a ton of talent, that may possibly combine for ~ 120 HRs annually in a few years. That said, odds are that both of Stanton and Bruce don't reach their MLB "power ceilings" of ~ 40 HRs annually as both have some degree of concerns relative to high K rates/low contact rates. Adrian Gonzalez is as steady as it gets and no need for a lot of analysis here as MLB production rates are clearly established.

Team A is getting arguably the best (again 5x5 fantasy) asset in the deal in Matt Kemp. He hits the ball so hard that a sub 80% contact rate should allow him to continue to be a ~ 300 hitter and he could be a real 30/30 threat with 300-100 (avg/rbi) totals as well, obviously elite fantasy numbers. Funny Adam Jones is a player that I'd take over either Bruce or Stanton for real MLB purposes. Not so sure for fantasy purposes. Jones has always shown nice growth as he adjusts to higher levels of competition and I can see him settling in to a 280-25-100 line production during his peak seasons. Wood is the throw in that I would like in the deal. His stock has dropped a lot but once/if he leaves the Angels I do think that he could develop into a decent power source (25-80) and also stay at SS (a JJ Hardy type of player, hopefully sans 2009).

Anyway, I appreciate any input on this trade and the young players involved.

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Comments

My quick analysis

Kemp > Gonzalez
Bruce > Jones
Stanton > Wood

I pretty much agree with your commentary. Although you are getting the best player in the deal, I still would not click the accept button. Your best bet here might be to try to just leave out the Stanton/Wood part of the deal. That makes this trade awfully darn fair IMO.

by guru4u on Dec 2, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions

I think it's like...

Kemp > Gonzalez
Jones > Bruce
Stanton > Wood

Jones is more of a well rounded player than Bruce is. I don’t see Bruce going anything over 275-35-15, while I could see Jones go 300-25-25 which is much better in my opinion. I could even see him get to 30 homers and stolen bases each in a single season. The only problem with the trade to me is Wood. I would try to get a better prosepct if I’m giving up Stanton.

by joegonzo on Dec 2, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by slickterp on Dec 2, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

I like the Gonzalez, Bruce, Stanton side of the deal mostly because I’m bearish on Adam Jones as a consistent 100 RBI player and for how many years is Kemp going to be stealing 30+ bags at his size (6’3, 225)

I guess a big part of the deal is who you plan to play at 1B if you trade Gonzalez, it makes a difference if your replacement player is Joey Votto or Garrett Jones. Also, how badly do you need SB’s.

Overall I like Team A’s side better so I wouldn’t do the deal.

by two fishsticks on Dec 2, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions

I still maintain that Stanton has a fairly high bust rate

And especially in a 5×5 fantasy league, if he can’t get his BA up, he’ll be at best a 3 cat contributer. Kemp and Jones both provide more all around contribution than any of the three guys you would give up (I think Kemp is a top 5 player next season in fantasy). It looks like the other team is putting too many eggs in the no real mlb track record basket. I would probably take it.

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Dec 2, 2009 12:03 PM EST reply actions

i love kemp and jones

but i wouldn’t do this because i think bruce is gonna go bonkers next year

by daveh33 on Dec 2, 2009 9:38 PM EST reply actions

mmm

like with all deals it depends on the rest of your team. if you got no power after those 3 then deal is no good. i like the deal if the loss in power won’t hurt you (i figure A-gon + Bruce will hit for 75hrs, vs. Kemp + Jones for 55hrs) you obviously gain in sb, and a bit in .avg.

barring the rest of your team not being especially weak in any category:

kemp
a-gon
bruce / jones about even (jones seems like a larger injury risk)
stanton
wood

i don’t like wood or stanton. but at least the marlins mess with stanton’s playing time.

by bk11 on Dec 3, 2009 5:42 AM EST reply actions

I wouldnt do this deal.

Gonzo and Kemp are close enough for me, though Id rather have Kemp.

As for the other parts, Id take Bruce and Stanton easy, and that’s the difference for me. I like Adam Jones, and his bat looks better than expected, but he’s a glove first player who hits a good bit. Im not sure how much I believe in his bat as a good mixed league OF option. Wood I like as a player, but whats the situation there? Why should you take on that risk and give up a stud young OFer and one of the best prospects in baseball to do it. Don’t do it.

by alskor on Dec 3, 2009 1:13 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for all of the input guys. Negotiations continue as I thought that the “price” (Gonzo, Bruce, Stanton) was too rich.

I had already tried the suggestion of eliminating Stanton/Wood from the deal, no go so far.

Adrian Gonzalez fills a DH spot for me right now as I have Pujols, Zimmerman, Youkalis manning 1B, 3B, CI. Thus, the positional issues aren’t a factor.

I have enough power to make the deal, but I don’t need to “overpay” for Kemp and probably the prudent path is not to pursue him just because he’s available.

Thanks for all the input.

Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill

by Wilbur Wood on Dec 3, 2009 5:17 PM EST reply actions