Bosox & Adrian

If I were a Sox fan I would not want to move Westmoreland. That would be ugly down the road.

I’d be okay with anything that didnt include Westmoreland. I think it could get done, and if so, it should be.

Will get moved. While Boston is the easy bet, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone else pulled it out. It’s interesting that Baltimore made a run at him. I could see a number of teams get in on this. That said, I am not expecting it to happen anytime soon (next two weeks). I think Hoyer may lay the groundwork now, but it might take a while to get done. It might make sense for him to wait until Bay or Holliday are off the market. I think Hoyer’s going to want a couple arms in any deal.

Boston’s the easy bet because Hoyer came from there and they have a good potential match with Buchholz and their OF depth. That said, I wonder about some other teams. Baltimore could probably put over a solid package that gives them young pitching and a young OF. I wonder about the Rays – a good match could exist there. The Braves could definitely use offensive help and have enough pieces to challenge for a deal. There’s a lot of teams that could be in on this and offer a good enough package to compete.

For Boston, I think Buchholz, Kelly, Ellsbury could likely do the trick, and it would probably make enough sense for Boston and San Diego to take that gamble. It wouldn’t surprise me if San Diego wanted to substitute other young talent for Ellsbury.

if i remember correctly i recall reading that Hoyer would be looking for something like 4-6 prospects who have a chance to be every day contributors.

Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kalish, Reddick are all guys who the padres could plug into their lineup tomorrow. Kely and Westmoreland both look to be at least 2-3yrs away, though Kelly looks to be the one to make the jump faster. i don’t see the padres and the red sox agreeing on both Westmoreland and Kelly b/c those 2 together represent quite a bit of trade value and while they have good upside they’re also a few years away from contributing, so my own belief is that at most one of them will be traded.

that said i could see the deal looking like:

Buchholz
Ellsbury
Kalish
Reddick
Tazawa
and another prospect

for
A.Gon
Headley

which i think would be a fair deal for the padres, gives them a whole new cheap and effective OF as well as a possible frontline starter and a back-end sp/rp.

As a Red Sox fan, I just don’t think it’s likely. Rather than pay the ransom that Toronto wanted for Halladay (either time) or for Cliff Lee this time, the Sox went out and overpaid by a couple million per for John Lackey to save Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland from trade.

I think they’re likely to do the same thing this time, too..

There are “other” options out there to signing Beltre or trading for AGon. For example, the sox could sign Nick Johnson at 1B and shift Youkilis to 3B, they could shift Youkilis to 3B and go with Max Ramirez/Casey Kotchman at 1B or they could sign Joe Crede and start him at 3B. He’s been useful v RHP for the last two seasons.

Not only is he a phenomenal player in his absolute prime, he is incredibly cheap for the next two years. You’re going to be paying him $5M a year to net you five wins (over six last year), and there’s nothing even comparable on the market. That’s worth a lot more than A-ball prospects you have crushes on.

Can someone provide more inforrmation on who is the better defensive centerfielder? I really don’t know much about them but I have hear numerous times that they are good prospects. I think a good and cheap defensive CF who can hit some with a great prospect like Buckholtz will be a great return for any 1B not named Pujols.

We’d save money, give up a head-case, and get our boy AGon! Of course, who would you need with Paps? I’m thinking maybe just Buchy and Paps would do it.

I pretty much locked that one in as soon as the Lackey signing was confirmed. Boston now has a surplus of starting pitchers and I don’t think anybody expects Wakefield to go to the pen. The Lackey signing lets the Red Sox center a deal around Buchholz, one of Reddick or Kalish, and one of Anderson/Rizzo (the Padres will want a guy they project to replace Gonzalez; my guess is the Californian Anderson, whose bad back in cold weather would scare in Boston), with perhaps an extra C+ level prospect.

I have to think the Padres would be very pleased with this return, and it seems like a package that Boston would probably not balk at . . .they retain Westmoreland and Kelly (clearly the two minor league prospects they’re highest on at this point), and they maintain starting pitching depth at the major league level with Bowden and Tazawa still on the 40 man.

I do not see the Sox giving up both of them for Adrian Gonzalez. I think its one or the other, plus one of Kelly/Westy, plus one of Kalish/Reddick, plus a decent upside arm (Doubront/Fife/Weiland)

If the trade is for Hanley Ramirez then all bets are off.

Does anyone think he would be involved?

I don’t understand all the talk about Buccholz and Ellsbury, who are obviously more valuable to the Red Sox because they’re trying to contend now and service time (more specifically lack of it) is more important to the Padres, so they’ll have these guys until 2016 instead of 2012. While the Sox might not have a ton (if any) of top 50 prospects, they’ve literally got like 50 guys who could realistically make The Show if things pan out the right way. How about an offer like this:

Bard
Westmoreland
Bowden
choice of Reddick or Kalish
Hoyer’s pick of two lower level “live arms”

Bard would immediately give SD the ability to trade Heath Bell to bolster their system even more. Bowden spent pretty much the whole year in AAA and could immediately be an innings eater and if Hoyer went with Reddick he’d be on the opening day roster as well I think. Westmoreland gives him a potential star. The arms give him potential bullpen help. Does the lack of star power preclude a deal like that from happening?

Bowden and Anderson would get no attention at all if they weren’t Red Sox prospects. I don’t like either of them. If I’m the Padres it’s Buchholtz, Westmoreland and Kelly or quit calling.

All reports of who might be involved in this trade are 100% media guesses, because neither Theo nor Jed would tell anyone outside the organization.

And in fact there is zero chance that Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury will be traded for Adrian Gonzalez. Buchholz even-up for Gonzalez is demonstrably a terrible trade and if you can’t figure out the logic (five years of a guy whose healthy downside is #2 starter and upside is CY > 2 years of anybody) I’m not going to explain it with more than a brief parenthetical note. Ellsbury even-up for Gonzalez is an OK trade only if Ellsbury fails to improve significantly; four years of Ellsbury’s 2008 glove (when he was a legit +7 in CF as demonstrated by his corresponding superb play in RF and LF) and his June 2009-onward bat (when he was the 3rd best offensive CF in baseball, and the improvement was the result of specific changes in his approach that were talked about at the time) for two years of Gonzalez is an awful trade because that version of Ellsbury is one of the best CF in the game. And he’s likely to become that player.

The trade would have happened already (with two C prospects added for show) had either guy ever been offered. The notion that Jed would be turning down Buchholz because he wouldn’t be enough is particularly ludicrous.

It’s like no can wrap their brains around two vs. four five years of control. In terms of cost / benefit, Gonzalez would have to be twice as good as Ellsbury and 2.5 times as good as Buchholz. The only reason you ever defy that simple math is if the guy you’re getting is an elite player and the talent you’re giving up doesn’t have that upside. But Buchholz and Ellsbury have not just star upside (they are already close to that), but superstar.

Personally, I think they’ll sign Beltre for a reasonable price and that Gonzalez ends up with the O’s.

Oh, and they would like to keep Bard as Papelbon’s heir (they are very unlikely to re-sign him) but I’m sure they would include him in the right deal.

1) Given his relative inexperience as a pitcher for a guy his age (he started his JuCo career as an OF) and the progress he has already made with his command, it would be very unusual for him to not improve that command (and his start-to-start consistency) further.

2) He, Lester, and Beckett all have the same repertoire — 4-seamer, 2-seamer, curve, change, slider or cutter. When you break down their stuff with pitch/fx, there’s no comparison. Buchholz has velocity differentiation on the change and break on the curve that the other two guys could only dream about (with results to match, when he’s commanded them). Lester has a better 2-seamer and his cutter is nastier than Buccholz’s slider, and they both currently throw a bit harder, but those are differences of degree.

3) He was the best SP prospect in MLB two years ago, and since then he’s added a 2-seamer and improved his slider fairly dramatically to the point where it’s also a plus pitch. He never had good command of his CB after his recall last year; when that comes back, he’ll be scary.

4) ""My thoughts about Clay Buchholz haven’t changed over the years. He started to show it last year, in a six-start stretch in August and September when he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We think that’s what he is. He went out in an elimination playoff game and threw a really good ballgame. We still think he’s a top-of-the-rotation guy, he’s under our control for five years and he has the makeup to succeed in Boston.

“The way his two-seamer came on, his ability to throw inside to righties and get ground balls, it’s a luxury for us to throw him out there not in the first, second or third slot.” — Theo Epstein.

who keeps being confused by the headline and thinking this post’s referring to Beltre?

This is like the third time that I’ve clicked on it and been surprised by the contents. Part of that is me having a short-term memory roughly on par with the “Memento” guy’s, but…