Sizemore vs. Valbuena
by nivarsity on Dec 16, 2009 10:17 PM EST
19 comments
Scott Sizemore and Luis Valbuena are under-the-radar AL Central 2B's who are likely to start full-time in 2010.
Sizemore has been compared to Marcus Giles (best case) and Frank Catalanotto. KG gave him 4 stars and ranked him #3 in the Tigers' system. He put up an .889 OPS between AA and AAA this year at age 24. The Tigers non-tendered Placido Polanco and have indicated they are going to give Sizemore every chance to be the team's opening day second baseman, even though he's currently recovering from a broken leg. He's generally rated average defensively.
Valbuena, 23, also has some pop for a 2B. In 95 PA's in AAA this year he raked to the tune of a .975 OPS. In 400 PA's with the Tribe, he was mediocre, struggling to a .298 OBP but showing power with 10 bombs. Last year he put up a 304/.381/.483 line in AA. Scouts like his defense, but UZR doesn't.
Which under-the-radar 2B do you like more?
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I honestly haven't analyzed this all too deeply
Just off initial thought – I would go with Valbuena. I could see a situation where Sizemore may be more consistent through his career, with Valbuena perhaps having a better peak.
That said, really haven’t compared them side to side.
WOW
16 votes a piece
50 – 50
interesting
not that it matters, but I voted Sizemore, even though I had Valbuena in fantasy last year (dynasty) I like him a lot
-Valbuena and Weglarz and Huff is who i got for Matt Holiday…
Rene Tosoni is good.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 17, 2009 12:10 AM EST reply actions
Thought it'd be close but this is a barnburner.
I voted Valbuena, I’m more sold on his defense/athleticism and think he has a higher upside.
very good discussion topic
of the two, i am leaning sizemore, I just think he will end up being more consistent.
what about adding martin prado to the mix – where does he stack up in comparison?
Martin Prado is already an above average major leaguer
Does seem like he really fits into this comparison.
yeah
I know.
still wanted to see if people thought sizemore/valbuena could end up in the same mold.
it wasnt a given that prado would enter 2009 as starting 2B until his second half last year. thats why despite his lack of prospect status, I see relevance in comparing him to valbuena/sizemore, who are also potentially entering a starting MLB role for their first time.
by saltybiscuits on Dec 17, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
What about his 2008, which was even better?
In ~870 PA, he has a 114 OPS+. I was more skeptical after 2009, but even if you project him to regress to around 100 OPS+, that’s still above average for a middle infielder.
2008 was a relatively small sample. I fully admit he surprised me in 2009 but I’m not drinking the kool aid yet. His BABIP was a little high as well and he doesn’t have exceptional speed to suggest he can maintain above average BABIP numbers. Maybe he will surprise me long term but I just can’t help thinking he simply got hot and had a miraculous season which has happened before.
His UZR has been below average 3 years in a row now enough to suggest he is a below average defender.
If his bat is is average to slightly above average and his defense is average to slightly below average, I just don’t see him as clearly an above average player at 2B.
- The point was he played at the same level in both 2008 and 2009, and he’s got a decent sample size for his career now where he has been well above average. CHONE has him putting up a pretty good line next year: .299/.357/.440
- The idea that the only speedy dudes have the high BABIP skill is not well grounded.
- His UZR tells us nothing really. You need multiple seasons worth of data for defensive numbers to be anything approaching meaningful representations of innate skill. But Prado only has ~100 games at 2B, spread across 4 years, since the Braves have been shifting him willy-nilly about the infield when others go down with injury.
The only season he has spent more than 17 games at 2B (2009), his UZR/150 was -3.6, which is well within the margin of error of “average.” But again, there is no reason to have confidence in that number, because it isn’t based on nearly enough data.
Prado may not be a good defender (from watching him, I could buy that he’s below average), but there is no argument for that based on UZR.
I'd definitely take Grady Sizemore over Luis Valbuena....
Just kidding, but I think these players will end up being similar. Here’s what Goldstein said about Scott Sizemore:
“Sizemore’s defense remains a bit sloppy. He gets bad breaks on balls and many of his errors come on seemingly routine plays. While his offensive game is good all-around, nothing about it really stands out as plus-plus.”
That sounds very similar to Valbuena. From what I saw from Valbuena this year, he made a lot over really nice plays, but a lot of errors too. It seemed like his errors came on routine plays. Valbuena had impressive pop for a 23 year old second baseman (25 2B, 10 HR in 368 AB), but nobody knows if he’ll be able to hit left handed pitching. Interesting discussion topic…..
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