Too much talent, who do I cut? Update . . .
by Rotofan on Dec 15, 2009 10:00 PM EST
15 comments
In September I asked your advice about who to cut to get from 40 to 25 players in a 12-owner A.L.-only roto league, with standard 23-man roster and a 17-man reserve, $260 and 4 x 4 categories (HR, RBI, BA, SB, ERA, Whip, S, W) . Thanks for all the helpful input. Here who I kept and who I cut:
Kept:
Zack Greinke $10 - will be in last year of two-year contract (obtained in trade last year)
David Aardsma $1 - I can keep him at this price the next two years (obtained in trade this year)
Adam Lind $8 - I can keep him at this price the next two years (obtained in trade this year)
Shin Soo-Choo $10 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (obtained in trade this year)
Kendry Morales $6 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (obtained in trade before this year)
Matt Weiters $11 — I can keep him at this price the next two years ((obtained in trade last year)
Desmond Jennings free — no cost to keep on reserve; $4 in year two
Jesus Montero free — no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two
Marco Scutaro $6 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (bought at auction)
Elvis Andrus $5 — last year of contract next year (bought at auction)
Mike Aviles $2 — last year of contract next year; health concerns but low price
Justin Smoak $3/$8 — depends on if I keep him for one year more or two
Julio Borbon $5 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (bought at auction)
Phil Hughes $3 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (auction)
Brian Matusz $1
Hector Rondon - no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two
Tyler Flowers - no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two
Austin Jackson - - no cost to keep on reserve; $1 in year two
Josh Reddick - - no cost to keep on reserve; $7 in year two; could be part of trade for Gonzalez
Ian Kennedy — no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two; outside shot at Yankee rotation
Brian Duensing - $4 — I don't love him but may have trade value in our league
Aroldis Chapman - $2 — I don't love him but may have trade value in our league
Daric Barton - $2 — I don't love him but may have trade value in our league
Key cuts:
Trevor Cahill $4 - entering option year of contract; really don't like peripherals
Kam Mickolio — no cost to keep on reserve; $11 in year two; outside shot at being O's closer
Michael Saunders - $2; probably my toughest cut; likely starter, good potential but still likely to struggle next year
Adam Moore — - no cost to keep on reserve; $1 in year two; likely in platoon
Hank Conger - - no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two
Danny Valencia - doesn't look like Twins will give him chance next season
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We're allowed up to 15 keepers, including up to five on reserve who haven't used their rookie eligibility. Players entering the third year of a contract can be long-termed by bumping up their salary by $5 for two years or $10 for three years. Players who are long-termed have their salaries counted against the $260 total even if they are on the reserve. Players traded to the National League can net you a player coming to the A.L. -- the trade of Hughes netted me Max Scherzer for the same price (nice!) and I'm keeping Reddick largely because he may be included in any trade for Adrian Gonzalez.
I have to cut to 15 by a week before Opening Day. Here's my latest projection of those keepers — 13 are locks and the other two are up in the air:
SP
Zack Greinke $10 - will be in last year of two-year contract (obtained in trade last year)
Max Scherzer $2 — I can keep him at this price the next two years
Brian Matusz $1 — I can keep him at this price the next two years
Phil Hughes $3 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (auction)
RP David Aardsma $1 - I can keep him at this price the next two years (obtained in trade this year)
C Matt Weiters $11 — I can keep him at this price the next two years ((obtained in trade last year)
1B - Kendry Morales $6 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (obtained in trade before this year)
SS — Elvis Andrus $5 — last year of contract next year (bought at auction)\
OF —
Adam Lind $8 - I can keep him at this price the next two years (obtained in trade this year)
Shin Soo-Choo $10 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (obtained in trade this year)
Julio Borbon $5 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (bought at auction); looks like he will start
Reserve:
Desmond Jennings free — no cost to keep on reserve; $4 in year two
Jesus Montero free — no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two
Up in the air: (can only keep two)
Marco Scutaro $6 — I can keep him at this price the next two years (bought at auction)
Mike Aviles $2 — last year of contract next year; health concerns but low price
Justin Smoak $3/$8 — depends on if I keep him for one year more or two
Hector Rondon - no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two
Tyler Flowers - no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two
Austin Jackson - - no cost to keep on reserve; $1 in year two; likely starter in Detroit
So what do you think of my choices? Who would you keep/cut to get down to 15?
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Any combo of Smoak, Tillman, Holland would be awesome. I’d probably keep Smoak and then one of the arms, but I can’t differentiate between the two.
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
by koolkerns101 on Dec 15, 2009 10:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Or keep those 3 and dump Borbon. Can’t go wrong anyway you look at it.
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
by koolkerns101 on Dec 15, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You nailed it. Borbon is at the bottom of my the 13 I plan to keep. If he still looks like the starting CF as opening day approaches, I’d have a hard time bumping him for Holland or Tillman if only because I like my four other starting pitchers and I may be able to grab either of them back for $1 at the auction since pitching prospects with middling numbers tend not to go for much in my league no matter what their upside.
I’m still holding out for am Adrian Gonzalez trade — If I add him at Reddick’s $7 salary I’ll have a dominating freeze list.
by Rotofan on Dec 15, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's my inclination too
My only reservation about Smoak is the Lowell trade (if it goes through) would leave him with no position unless Davis falters again or Lowell is hurt. Also, Smoak is entering the last year of his contract unless I bump up his salary to $8, which mean I either bump him up and lose salary on a guy who may not play until August or I keep him at his current salary, which costs me nothing since he’d be on the reserve, but only have use for him this coming season. I’m hoping the Lowell trade falls through.
by Rotofan on Dec 15, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think keeping some of those pitchers over Cahill is a mistake
Young kid over his head, but a very talented young pitcher. I see he’s in your option year already… still why keep Duensing and Kennedy over him…?
by alskor on Dec 15, 2009 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You need to consider the particulars of my league
I kept Kennedy in part because there was chance the Yanks would package him in a trade to the NL and I would get a player back at the same price — which is what happened; I got Max Scherzer.
As for Duensing, while you or I might like Cahill’s upside, in my league, most owners are oblivious of prospects and their upside and more concerned with wins, losses and ERA. Neither Cahill nor Duensing will make my final 15 but I will try to package the guys who won’t make the final cut to get one high-level player. In my league, Duensing will have greater trade value than will Cahill.
That’s what make rotisserie baseball interesting — it’s not only about talent evaluation, it’s about understanding what motivates the other owners in your league.
Also, Cahill’s peripheral stats were pretty bad last year – most pitchers with that sort of rookie season don’t amount to much. Even if he does, there’s a decent chance it won’t be this coming year, and since would be his option year, if he succeeds in two or three years he doesn’t so me much good.
by Rotofan on Dec 15, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All that considered
I’d still put my money on Cahill outperforming Duensing this year.
by alskor on Dec 16, 2009 2:08 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
That may or may not be true
But this is certain: Neither one makes my final 15 so their only value to me is their trade value to other owners in my league. If I was playing in a league with 11 alskor’s, Cahill would be more valuable. But I’m not and most of the guys I play with will value Duensing more.
As far as real baseball, Duensing struck out more and walked fewer per nine innings and had a much better FIP. Given their respective ages, I would expect Cahill to improve more, but it may take more than next year to catch up.
by Rotofan on Dec 16, 2009 2:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
"most of the guys I play with will value Duensing more"
Most of the guys you play with arent very bright, apparently.
Im really having a hard time seeing one person believe Duensing (who, is he even in the rotation?) is a good bet to outperform Cahill next year… next week… over any period of time – nevermind a whole league. Cahill is just going to keep getting better while Duensing is just a bad pitcher. Cahill’s projection has upside, Duensing’s does not. Duensing was lucky in 09. He should not be confused with any type of fantasy asset. Youre making way too much of Cahill’s peripherals in a rookie season where he should have been in AA or AAA. He’s a good candidate for a big leap forward in ’10.
I really have a hard time believing you can get more for Duensing when players like Derek Holland are on the chopping block (he’s a great bet to be better than Duensing in ’10 too).
by alskor on Dec 16, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Many of the guys I play with don't actively follow the minors or study sabermetrics
They lack knowledge. That has nothing to do with their intelligence — most are quite smart but devote more time to their careers and family than to baseball.
I’m not sure why you are struggling to see how Duensing could out-perform Cahill over “any period of time.” All you have to do is look up their stats from last year when both were in the majors. Duensing was much better than Cahill. It wasn’t remotely close. And as for luck, Duensing’s strand rate and Babip were slightly better than league norms, but all luck-adjusted measures of performance had him way ahead of Cahill, and that’s because Cahill was far luckier – he had an unsustainable strand rate and Babip.
Cahill still has a higher ceiling as a prospect — he’s five years younger, and while he struggled with command in the minors, he posted a great combination of strike outs and ground outs in the low minors.
But again, that’s besides the point. If you want to be an effective owner in a rotisserie league it is imperative that you learn how other owners value players. It’s a foolish owner who thinks he will persuade other owners they are wrong. It’s far wiser to understand their value methods and structure trades accordingly.
Finally, Holland and Cahill aren’t remotely comparable at this stage. Holland posted some outstanding numbers last year and his problems were partly bad luck ( high Babip and low strand rate) and some inconsistency that led to some big innings. If you had read my other comments you would have seen Holland is in my top 3 for the last 2 spots and Duensing is not — he’s being kept for trade value. In fact, if I had to decide today, the last two spots would go to Holland and Smoak with Tillman the odd man out.
by Rotofan on Dec 16, 2009 1:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Right...
But if you agree Cahill is a better asset than Duensing — which he is — then you agree there is a much better chance of Cahill significantly improving or breaking out next year. If he does that, even the dull owners in your league will start to value him.
by nivarsity on Dec 16, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His value after opening day is irrelevant to my decision
Neither he nor Duensing will make my final list of 15 — they must be cut or traded before the final week before the season.
Do you think I should keep Cahill over someone else in my 15 (assuming I keep Smoak and Holland)?
by Rotofan on Dec 17, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Guys I wouldn't keep...
Borbon, Scutaro, Aviles. Flowers, or Jackson. Those are easy cuts for me. For me personally, the final cut is between Rondon and Cahill. Duensing is an afterthought for me as I don’t think he’s better than a #4. I dislike Barton because of the Oakland DH/1b situation and don’t see him winning much time with all the talent that is stacked there (even with Wallace traded). I’m not a fan of either Aviles or Scutaro and having Andrus allows you to cut one if not both. Cutting Kennedy makes sense as well as he hasn’t proven the ability to get MLB hitters out with consistency yet. Granted, going to the NL may help, but I don’t think he’s going to develop into anything better than Duensing. Moving Chapman would probably be your best bet with some of the cuttable talent that you have.
Personally, I’d rather keep Rondon, Cahill and Chapman as good inexpensive pitching. Trying to trade the 3 of them for something better may be more valuable in the short run as well as the long run. I believe you have to keep Smoak and Holland as they are potentially the cornerstones of the future since you lack any Grade A talent in the Majors other than Greinke…
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Dec 18, 2009 3:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks JT for all the feedback.
Borbon is on my list for now because he is the defacto CF next year (and the Rangers and their new ownership isn’t likely paying to upgrade) and he’s a cheap source of steals – I project 35 to 40 with a helpful batting average. The others you mentioned, I agree, are easier cuts.
Barton is an easy cut too but if he’s named the opening day 1B in Spring Training I may be able to package him in a trade before the season.
Kennedy isn’t on my team now as he was traded to the NL and I got to add Scherzer at the same price — which I’m happy about.
I really like Rondon — I picked him up in up in our reserve draft before this past season — before he was on most people’s radars. But he may be squeezed out by the numbers. Chapman likely needs all of 2010 and most of 2011 to harness his talent so doesn’t further my goal of winning those two years. Smoak and Holland have the inside track for now for the last two spots.
by Rotofan on Dec 19, 2009 1:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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