Pre-trade BA Blue Jays top 10
by toonsterwu on Dec 15, 2009 1:00 PM EST
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BA comes out with the Blue Jays top 10 today. They note that the chat will discuss what a post-trade top 10 would look like.
1. Zach Stewart
2. JP Arencibia
3. Chad Jenkins
4. David Cooper
5. Henderson Alvarez
6. Jake Marisnick
8. Brad Mills
10. Carlos Perez
The Blue Jays community list that we did a few months ago - link is to the synthesized list
I'm a bit surprised that Arencibia ranked 2nd and Cooper ranked 4th. Not stunned, but a bit surprised. I hope someone lets us know what the revised list is from the chat. My guess would be Kyle Drabek at 1, Brett Wallace at 2 or 3, and Travis D'arnaud somewhere in the 7-10 range.
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d'Arnaud
Wow, there’s no way he’s that low (he was 4th on the Phillies list!). I’d put him third and I could see the argument for 2nd.
guess I'm just not as high on D'Arnaud
that said, i did forget that they had D’Arnaud 4th on the Phillies list, so yeah, you guys are probably right, he’d probably rank top 5.
Im not super high on him...
but man, I really hate everyone else on this list. Never liked Arencibia and Stewart doesnt do much for me.
Much of d’Arnaud’s poor line was due to a .279 BABIP, which is low given his components (7.8% BB, 15.6% K, .164 ISO). And in general, the scouting reports on him from the SAL were very, very impressive.
I’d probably slot him in at 4 behind Stewart. I’ll admit, I’m not a big Arencibia fan at this point.
Alvarez
Alverez has a ton of potential. I live in the Lansing area and am still kicking myself for not getting a chance to see him in person. I did talk to a friend who saw him pitch 3 times and LOVED his arm and stuff. He also pointed out that if things don’t go his way early it often leads to frustration problems (really poor outings) reminisent of another former Lugnut alum we both saw pitch some years ago….Carlos Zambrano.
Fpr me...
Drabek #1, Wallace #2 and D’Arnaud 4-6. To me, Jays have the worst system rt now hands down. Noone’s system needs a talent infusion from a trade like this more than they do. Cant believe that BA ranked 2 teams worse than theirs, including Houston who, while they’re still not good, look much improved over last year, at least at the top. I dont think Stewart would have made the top 100, so w/o this trade, they’d be shut out.
I disagree on Stewart
When BA released its Mideason Top 25 there were 25 honorable mentions listed in alphabetical order. The list went live about an hour earlier than it was supposed to. On the original list, Stewart was in there. Last minute changes put him just outside of that, meaning at Midseason Baseball America saw Stewart as a prospect in the #51-#60 range overall. What has changed since then that would push him 40-50 spots further down the list?
Stewart
You may be right, but I have my doubts. The mid-season list is done by 1 guy, in this case J.J. Cooper, whereas the top 100 is a combined effort by 5-6 of BA’s more noted prospect mavens, which I expect will include Cooper. Other HMs on the mid-season list that I dont expect will make the top 100: Alderson, Holt and maybe Weglarz, too. Plus, L. Anderson, Rogers, and maybe even Hosmer arent shoo-ins either, altho I expect they’ll make it.
That isn't true
This list wasn’t just Cooper, it was a cooperative effort. Unlike Stewart, several of the guys you mentioned fell flat on their faces this year as well. I will be shocked if Stewart isn’t in the Top 100.
I'm guessing that was to limit his IP
He was only able to throw 80 innings in 2008 between Texas Tech and A ball and he got moved to the bullpen after 79.1 this year. I don’t know the whole story, but just looking at the numbers that would be my guess, especially since it seems like he had injury issues before 2008. Obviously the lack of innings is an issue for now, but I don’t think the fact that he moved to the bullpen later in the year means much here unless it was because of arm soreness/weakness.
Forget the injury issues part...
Looks like he just went the JC route. Still I think the points stands that he was likely moved to the bullpen to limit his IP while they try and stretch him out from a RP to a SP.
Reliever to starter
Stewart was a starter in JC. He threw 91 innings as a starter his sophomore year and North Texas. He only started a few times at Texas Tech though. So he certainly has starting experience prior to this past season.
Thats exactly what happened
At least why the Reds moved him to the pen. They knew he was getting a lot of innings on the arm and they needed to limit the amount that he threw.
Cooperative effort?
Never knew that. Do you have a source for that statement? I always thought that the mid-season list was one guy’s ranking, like the team Top 10’s. I’m sure the list gets edited by someone like Callis, like the Top 10 lists do, so it’s cooperative in that sense, but I dont think they have 5-6 guys submit their personal lists, then have a big discussion about them and then average the lists together to get the final list like they do for the overall top 100. Might be a good question for ‘Ask BA’. Actually, I’m in a fantasy league w one of the BA staff guys, so maybe I’ll ask him next spring when I see him.
Point well taken that the other guys I mentioned had mediocre/poor 2nd halfs. You may be right, but until I hear otherwise I just think there are 100+ guys that BA will like better.
Read the comments
My take on some of these questions: Lincoln and Owens would be under consideration, just hard to think of it in a vacuum, and since neither of those guys were strong considerations for the Top 25 (at least not for me), I didn’t ask the scouts I talked to about either of them. Latos is quite close, he was in the discussion in the 21-25 range; for me his makeup is a big question mark, has been since he was an amateur.
With Manuel referring to the list and his opinion on guys, it seems like at the very least he and Cooper cooperated on the list.
My Top 10
Just my quick top 10 assuming that the deal is done the way we are hearing.
1)Drabek
2)Wallace
3)D’Arnaud
4)Jenkins
5)Alvarez
6)Stewart
7)Cooper
8)Marisnick
9)Roenicke
10)Arencibia
Stewart 6th?
Really surprised a guy with 2 plus pitches (who is trying to develop a change) that flew threw AAA in his first full season isn’t getting anymore love than he is. Sure he may end up as a SU/CL but, at this point, that is almost a modest projection. Given the 1.5 seasons of pro ball we have seen from him, I see no reason why he couldn’t do that next year besides that he hasn’t done it already of course. Haha
I’ve never been a huge fan of Drabek and consistently rank him lower than the majority but I just don’t see how people can think they are that far apart.
D'Arnaud
There is a decent chance D’Arnaud ends up being the best player the Jays got of the 3 prospects. Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying now but if he develops right he could be an A.S. C. Mike Newman over at scoutingthesally.com wrote this about him:
“Speaking of Travis D’Arnaud, he was the most impressive offensive player I saw this season. He’s a plus defender with 20-25 home run potential and could be a perennial all-star type catcher. Numbers be damned, he was a surefire top ten player to me.”
This quote was in reference to breaking down BA’s “Sally” top 20.
Catcher of the future
D’arnaud vs. Arencibia.
Anyone care to compare them. Who will be their guy?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Some
people in Philly are very happy because some believe that Valle the catcher thats 19 old would have given D’Arnaud a push for his money in time.
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