St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2010
St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2010.
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Shelby Miller, RHP, Grade B: I love the ceiling, but we need to see how he adapts to pro ball, if he can stay healthy, etc. etc.
2) Jaime Garcia, LHP, Grade B-; I like him and the Tommy John recovery looks like it went well, but I hope they let him build up his stamina rather than pushing him too quickly.
3) Lance Lynn, RHP, Grade B-: Projects as an inning-eater number three starter type. K/BB in the Texas League wasn't great, could use some Triple-A time.
4) Robert Stock, C, Grade B-: I preferred him as a pitcher in college, but letting him hit makes sense: if he makes it, you have a power-hitting catcher with good defense. If he doesn't hit, you just move him back to the mound. Could be one of the best catching prospects in the game by July.
5) Daryl Jones, OF, Grade B-: I keep expecting power to develop but there's no sign of it. Cutting him some slack on '09 numbers due to injuries.
6) Eduardo Sanchez, RHP, Grade B-: Underrated power arm needs more attention, could be a major league closer if command sharpens a bit more.
7) Allen Craig, OF, Grade B-: I really like the bat, just needs to play.
8) David Freese, 3B, Grade C+: Almost a B-, injury was badly timed, turns 27 in April, looks like a .270 hitter with 20 homer power, solid glove.
9) Jon Jay, OF, Grade C+: I just like the guy. Always seems to rip the ball when I see him. I'd love to have him as a fourth outfielder.
10) Joe Kelly, RHP, Grade C+: Nasty power sinking stuff, college results didn't match arm, this could/should change in pro ball but he was erratic in the NY-P, too, so maybe it won't.
11) Dan Descalso, 2B, Grade C+: He was great in the Texas League but went back to being mediocre after promotion.
12) Tyler Henley, OF, Grade C+. Similar to Jay....perhaps a bit more pop but a bit less speed, another guy who could be very good as a fourth outfielder.
13) Blake Hawksworth, RHP, Grade C: Deserves credit fighting back from injury. Can be a nice middle reliever.
14) Tyler Greene, SS, Grade C: Lots of speed, some power, good tools, still held back by spotty plate discipline. Could hit .280 with 20 homers some year, then .180 the next year.
15) Steven Hill, C-1B, Grade C: Remember Todd Greene? The short guy with tons of power who could play outfield, first base, catch a bit, but who couldn't draw walks? This is his clone.
16) Pete Kozma, SS, Grade C: If he'd gone to Wichita State, this would be his junior season. Too young to write off just yet.
17) Francisco Samuel, RHP, Grade C: Blistering stuff, with no idea where it's going.
18) Scott Bittle, RHP, Grade C: He could move through the system very quickly, if his arm doesn't disintegrate like the crew of the USS Exeter after being exposed to the Omega IV biological weapon virus.
19) Mark Hamilton, 1B, Grade C: Remember him? Looked like an injury-plagued bust but rebounded this year, got a place on the 40-man. Don't see how he fits in the lineup other than as trade bait.
20) Tyler Norrick, LHP, Grade C: Another 40-man roster addition, power lefty arm with a high strikeout rate.
OTHERS (All Grade C): Matt Adams, 1B; Nick Additon, LHP; Bryan Anderson, C; Adron Chambers, OF; Kyle Conley, OF; Roberto De La Cruz, 3B; Scott Gorgen, RHP; Trey Hearne, RHP; Virgil Hill, OF; Ben Jukich, LHP; Blake King, RHP; David Kopp, RHP; Casey Mulligan, RHP; Adam Ottavino, RHP; Tommy Pham, OF; Adam Reifer, RHP; Shane Robinson, OF; Fernando Salas, RHP; Scott Schneider, RHP; Niko Vasquez, INF; P.J. Walters, RHP.
Trades and graduations thinned this system out fast compared to last year, however, I actually like it better than these grades imply.
Shelby Miller and Robert Stock could both be B+ or A- prospects a year from now, once we get a full season of data to look at. Garcia and Lynn could both be in the starting rotation in 2011 and both have a reasonable chance to be very good pitchers. Sanchez has closer potential. Jones, Craig, and Freese could all develop into regular players under the right circumstances and at worst could be good role players, while Jay, Descalso, Henley, Greene, and Hill could all be useful if deployed properly. Jon Jay remains a personal favorite for reasons that I find hard to quantify.
There is a large batch of arms who could be very good relievers if they throw strikes (Kelly, Samuel, Norrick, King, Reifer) as well as an assortment of pitchability types.
The system needs more impact talent, but Miller and Stock should help provide that, and there's a huge batch of Grade C depth. There were about 10 other guys I could easily have written up as Grade C prospects with potential.
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Comments
Man I think this is weaker than the White Sox
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I agree when it comes to top 10...
But this system has a lot more depth. Like John said there were 10 more players that he could have gave a C when we had a hard time coming up with 40 for the White Sox.
John I know you can’t add the other 10 in the book but could you please tell us who the other 10 are?
Yadi is my hero
Nah
I’ll definitely take the Cardinals system over the Astros and White Sox, and Tigers too. Those systems have some good players at the top(Castro, Lyles, Hudson, Flowers, Crosby, Turner), but they lack the depth that the Cardinals have.
Not all top prospects make it, having good depth can help even things out. Our 2B/SS combo of Schumaker and Ryan were never top 10 prospects(Ryan was actually a top 10 guy, like #8, for one season when the system was really horrible) and they are now solid MLB starters.
Cards' System
You can’t really quantify the effect of having Albert Pujols hit #3 in your lineup and your pitching coach being Dave Duncan. Their success is contagious.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
Depth
Minor league depth doesn’t mean that a system is going to continuously produce above average major league talent.
I would take the minor league system with two or three star quality prospects with a dearth of replacement level players, over one with one star caliber prospect, with a glut of replacement level players.
The goal of a minor league system is to continually produce above average major leaguers, both to supplement the major league team, and to help the team improve itself through trades.
This depth meme that I keep hearing from fellow Cardinals fans when they try to explain why their minor league system is better than so and so’s, is extremely overblown in my opinion. Because even with all that so called depth, they only have one or two players in their minor league system that could be stars if they live up to their potential.
Depth is good for having winning records for your minor league affiliates, but not for building a really good major league ball club.
Depth
Replacement level players have become big league all stars. The following players were never top 10 prospects:
Dan Uggla, Andrew Bailey, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, Paul LoDuca, Kevin Millwood, Wandy Rodriguez, Heath Bell
Then guys like Johan Santana, Nelson Cruz, Chris Coghlan, Mark Buerhle, Brad Hawpe were never top 5 prospects.
Depth is good because it provides your team with numerous opportunities to find at least a starter like a Skip Schumaker.
You don’t have to be a top 5 prospect or top 100 MLB prospect in order to be a good major leaguer. Just have some talent. Tyler Greene, Francisco Samuel, Adam Ottavino all have talent but something is keeping them from being great. Same thing happend to Randy Johnson but then he found some control.
I don’t mind a system that has a lot of guys with some talent. I like how the Cardinal’s 13th best prospect posted a 2.03 ERA in 40 major league innings last year. The K rate was low but the BB rate and H/9 are pretty good plus he has good stuff. It’s these kinds of prospects that can help a team save 3-5 million in free agency.
by UncleBuck44 on Dec 13, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Bob Stock
Considering his trail-blazer ways, was his decision to forego his senior season and immediately enter college seen as a success or a failure? I honestly figured he would be a top-10 draft prospect this year (when he originally made the decision to skip senior year). Then again, considering his grade and the hype attached (could be a B+ or A- in a year), it would seem the ends justifies the means. What’s the general opinion on the young SoCal gent?
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
My opinion
is that he is a pitcher, and he proved that over three years of college playing time.
He dominated the pac-10 when he was on the mound, and you don’t put that kind of arm behind the plate. I have a feeling if he would have stayed his senior year at USC and pitched a full season, than he would probably be in the conversation of possible first round picks in 2010.
I will tell you right now, that I would probably want him pitching in my system right now, than Matt Harvey.
Norrick???
Tyler Norrick??? Really!!! he’s got about as much chance of seeing the major leagues as I got of getting in Elin Nordgren’s pants. Even Francisco Samuel, you said it yourself: “Blistering stuff, with no idea where it’s going.” Major league hitters won’t swing while they’re ducking. I can think of at least 7 or 8 players I would put ahead of those two.
Agree
I agree so much that I wouldn’t have cared that much if Norrick was left off the 40 man roster and were exposed to the Rule V draft.
I would have gone with Adam Ottavino as a high risk, high reward 20th prospect. Ottavino improved a lot moving from AA to AAA but still showed problems with command. His future as a starter doesn’t look great because of those problems but he has the stuff to be a good late inning reliever.
The comparison I made for Ottavino, not so much as an outlook of what his long term future will be but rather as a comparison of what his career has been so far and might look like in the next 2 years, was to Joe Nathan. Big, flame thrower, excellent velocity, sharp breaking ball, command problems. Both even come from from New York ;)
Ottavino looked really impressive in the WBC for Team Italy when he went 3 strong innings against the stacked Venezuelan lineup.
Richard Castillo
What happened? He was on your initial list, then disappeared after you cut Herron from the list. His season wasn’t great, but it wasn’t a complete bust and just turned 20. Did he just drop from a C+ to even lower than a C in your eyes?
castillo
He’s one of the C guys that could be included.
by John Sickels on Dec 13, 2009 7:11 AM EST up reply actions
park factors could be at play
Palm Beach suppresses HRs to a pretty strong degree. He gave up 11 HRs in 79 innings in the MWL in 2008.
yeah I looked at his splits
only 2% of his flyballs were homeruns. That is an insane rate which is not sustainable.
I am the Batman
"The system needs more impact talent"
a healthy wagner mateo would have helped with that. :(
i guess there is one positive from that failed signing…it showed the cards are willing to spend money for amateur talent. they could end up with as many as 4 extra picks next draft. hopefully they can use those wisely.
Internet show on Cardinals prospects
For those who may have missed it, about two weeks ago, John Sickels and I discussed Cardinals prospects on Rotowire’s Fantasy Sports Hour with host Jeff Erickson. Here is the link to the archived broadcast.
Brian Walton
thecardinalnationblog.com
fan of your work
You should stop by Viva El Birdos some time
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 13, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Deryk Hooker
I think he should be in the top 20. He is very young and pitched fairly well last year. Any thoughts?
Aaron Luna
What keeps him off the list? Showed good power, seemingly a little unlucky, could use more walks but not bad at all. I’d say he had a pretty solid first pro season.
luna
He was considered, but he’s one of the Grade C guys that I just don’t have room for.
by John Sickels on Dec 13, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Daniel Calhoun
look out for him
mlbprospectreport.blogspot.com
I feel ya on Jon Jay
Something about the guy I like so much. He has plus D that can play in all 3 spots. A good for a 4th OF. He had a great spring last year and if he repeats it this year. Might have a spot on the Cards 25 man roster. Long shot but would not rule it out.
Ferrara
Good call, definitely missed him. He’s the new Jaime Garcia of our lower minors, meaning a lower drafted lefty with good potential. Ferrara was considered a supplemental 1st round/2nd round prospect back in the 2008 draft before he suffered through some shoulder soreness.
He’s doing pretty well so far. Staying healthy will be the key for him.
Joe Kelly
I like him as a pen arm that could move fast. Solid grade.
C may be generous
His bat looks exceedingly suspect. His ceiling is Adam Everett.
different from Kozma
Jackson really doesn’t have much bat at present, although he might have a little more potential there than people are giving him credit for. His glove is outstanding.
Kozma is a mystery at this point . . .tools are only decent, but great makeup. Playing the second full season out of high school in AA is a really tough assignment for any guy, so while his numbers were terrible, you couldn’t really expect much. At age and experience appropriate levels, he put up a .761 OPS in 2008 and a .765 OPS in 2009. If he had stayed in the FSL all year, would we be looking at him as a grade C prospect right now?
uh, yeah
I think everybody knows that . . .but it’s certainly a better showing than Kozma managed the year before in his FSL stint. My point is, the guy improved, and I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to think that he could have continued to post a .750+ OPS in the FSL had he spent all year there.
Blake Hawksworth: 4.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, .225 BABIP
I don’t understand the sentiment that he’s a top prospect. His numbers were insanely lucky in the bigs and he was saved by an unsustainable HR rate in AAA and the majors. Being in STL for part of the year doesn’t make you good. He’s going to be a huge letdown for people in 2010.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Hawk
He’s got good stuff with a fastball that is usually 91-94 with sinking movement and an above average changeup. He also throws strikes. His K rate is low, IMO, because his breaking ball is a little soft and that is usually a swing and miss pitch for a lot of guys, not a changeup. You try to get guys to roll over on changeups or hit them weakly in the air and Hawksworth had a 53% GB%.
It’ll be interesting to see how he does in 2010. He’ll be a big part of the bullpen from the start. Hopefully he can keep going strong. It might be a good idea for Duncan to teach him the cutter like he’s done with so many other pitchers. That could round out Hawksworth’s repertoire nicely.
by UncleBuck44 on Dec 14, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Lance Lynn
What are the thoughts on him? He seems like a quick mover already making it to AA.
I saw him throw twice this year. He mixes what seems like a cutter to me with a 2 seam and 4 seam. It was a very good pitch for him and kept hitters off balance. 2 seam, cutter, curve… I thought he looked really good. I wrote this about him in a game review…
A few highlights from the Cards. Lance Lynn pitched. He was a first round pick last year. He thew a cutter, 4 seam, 2 seam, change, and curve. Mixed speeds well, located well, just got beat today. I think his record is 9-4. Topped out at 93, worked 89-91.
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