Travis Snider vs. Mike Stanton.
by Wilbur Wood on Dec 12, 2009 3:35 PM EST
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Who do you like and why to have the better MLB career?
These 2 are two of the better prospect bats. Both have had issues with high K rates. Snider is closer to the Show. Snider has less defensive value. Stanton is the better athlete. Stanton and Snider both have elite power potential.
The Marlins tend to more aggressively promote their prospects while the Blue Jays take a more gradual approach to development.
I'll link a poll to this. Let the dialogue begin.
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Tough Call
When looking at just the statistical evidence but, just a gut feeling that Snider becomes a very solid regular OF and Stanton become a superstar – I could very well be wrong though.
I will say this though, just like I am not at all concearned with Bumgarner’s velocity I am also not concearned with Stanton’s strikeouts. I think for his age and where he was playing he made huge progress.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Snider ended up a better overall hitter in most seasons but Stanton will be a major weapon with his power.
I consider thier differences in defensive value relatively slight – Snider decent in Lf and Stanton decent to a bit above in Rf.
Honestly its a tough call but, Im a suckr for a dude who could be blasting 45 homer a year soon – Snider could as well though.
Velocity is
A tougher skill to “correct” then a batter striking out
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by jbluestone on Dec 13, 2009 2:05 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Chopping wood
Not that bears repeating… again, and again… but I will say it agin just to be consistent.
Madison Bumgarner needs no correction on ANYTHING… he needs only to keep his arm in shape and keep developing. He’s been nearly flawless and has plenty of velocity to go along with his other, brilliant and more important skills. To me he is behind Stanton and Heyward as the 3rd best propect in the game. He’s great!
Hmmmm
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Snider ended up a better overall hitter in most seasons but Stanton will be a major weapon with his power.”
This sentence is kind of odd, I think you mean to say that Stanton would be a major weapon with his power MORE SO than snider, which makes more sense, but I don’t entirely agree. Have you seen the bombs that Snider has hit in the big leagues, the guy must have 75 raw power, pitchers flat out don’t give him anything on the inner half anymore.
Clearing up
I’d have to think the raw power of Stanton and Sniders is quite similar.
I don't think its that close at all
They may both have distance on the bombs they hit, but Stanton’s HR are much more frequent. When Snider was 19, he was in A-ball, and 8.5% of the balls he hit in the air were HR. Stanton’s rate was more than double that in A-ball (19.6%) and he was 18, and in Double-A at 19, he was still at 12.9%. Snider didn’t flash that kind of power frequency until this year in Triple-A, and it was in just 204 PAs, and though his HR rate was ridiculous, its projection becoming production. Imagine what might happen when Stanton’s projection becomes production. There just isn’t anyone in the majors who has done or does do anything like what Stanton is doing aside from Ryan Howard, and Stanton has the athletic, positional, and ARL edge on Howard’s career. If Stanton’s power continues to develop at all, he could be the best pure power hitter in professional baseball in very short order.
That’s not to say I don’t like Snyder, who I do think is a more complete hitter, but Stanton just has a dimension to him that no other prospect in the game does, a single skill that could take him to a productive major league career even if the others develop less than expected. If his other skills do develop, he’s a once-in-a-generation oddity, that’s not to say he’ll be the most productive hitter of his generation, just that he’ll be completely unique and have a kind of star potential other prospects don’t have.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 15, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Stanton has the edge IMO
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I'm gonna take
Stanton because of his age relative to league and his superior athleticism.
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by jbluestone on Dec 13, 2009 2:06 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Age
I can see the argument for Stanton, but I’m not entirely sure how Stanton gets the nod for “age relative to league.” He was 19 in A and AA ball this year. Snider made his major league debut at age 20 and played half a season there at age 21 in 2009. I can see how Stanton’s athleticism and raw power could give the advantage, but what is it about his age that gives him the advantage? It seems like he is on track to make his MLB debut at roughly the same age as Snider.
i was wondering that too
should be about the same, barring a setback for stanton
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
My fault
Was on my phone thought snider was 24 for some reason
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by jbluestone on Dec 13, 2009 10:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
how can someone think Snider is 24?
and still have the gaul to vote in this poll?
are you
the poll police? the guy made a mistake…not a big deal
by miraclemets on Dec 13, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
sure, not a big deal
“gaul” may be too strong a word. But it’s pretty stupid to vote on who’s better polls when you’re that ignorant to the candidates.
Minor League Ball: A place where we argue even about the word gaul
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
almost
spit my coffee onto my computer monitor.
by richieabernathy on Dec 14, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
Don't blame it on the phone
If you thought he was 24 that’s fine, but what does being on the phone have to do with it? Does it impair memory like being drunk?
I like Stanton over Snider. It’s funny, we’ve had a Stanton v. Bruce and a Snider v. Bruce poll in previous months so it’s fitting to have this one to close out the trifecta.
by two fishsticks on Dec 13, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Meaning
I wasn’t at my computer so didn’t bother to double check or do any in depth analysis, just a quick of the top of my head response. I guess I should ban myself from commenting since I don’t have every players age committed to perfect memory.
Immmm sure the poll will be just fine, and either way same age/relative to league or not I am still voting Stanton so I think it will be OK.
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by jbluestone on Dec 13, 2009 5:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
well
will Snider be starting in 2009? I know Anthropoulous said he wasn’t guaranteed a spot, but I think if he has to start in Triple-A again it could impact his confidence. I think he already proved himself in Triple-A last year and there is no reason for the Jays NOT to start him and give him more Major League experience
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by The Congo Hammer on Dec 13, 2009 11:24 AM EST reply actions
Psh, that's just Anthropoulous being Anthropoulous
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
I have no problem admitting that I am a homer, but...
For one, I think defense is being completely ignored here. Stanton projects to be an above average defensive RFer. Snider projects to be a DH playing the OF. Snider’s TZ/150 in his MILB career currently sits at -16. Stanton is at +15, and that is not adjusting for that fact that 25% of Stanton’s chances have come from CF, making that +15 even better. We’re already talking about a massive difference in value there.
Hitting standpoint? Definitely a lot lot closer, but I’d steal easily take Stanton. Looking at their A ball numbers on (I really don’t like short season ball numbers), adjusted for park factors
Their park adjusted career lines
Snider: .299/.377/.518/.895
Stanton: .278/.365/.545/.910
Snider strikes out a tick less, striking out 25.78% PA compared to Stanton’s 27.22% (So, over 650 PA, we’re talking about a ~9 strikeout difference), they both walk at basically the same rate (10.78% for Snider, 10.72% for Stanton).
Stanton meanwhile has massive more power. His park adjusted ISO sits at .267, compared to Snider’s .219. Stanton rates at blasting 39 HRs in 150 games, compared to Snider’s 25. All this coming while being two years younger, meaning that the power difference is likely even more.
Snider though has shown a better job of hitting the ball inside the park. His park adjusted BABIP sits at .378, compared to Stanton’s of .337.
But there’s also the “luck” factor of BABIP. I mean, do people realistically expect Snider to put up mid-three hundred BABIP’s? It’s certainly possible, but expecting that from a prospect is setting the bar rather high. His BABIP will certainly be higher than Stanton’s though, who’ll probably sit around league average.
Snider to me just seems more like a low 800 OPS bat, compared to Stanton who should sit in the upper 800’s.
While I agree with your point in general
I have a couple minor disagreements. On defense, you are exaggerating Snider’s defensive downside. He was never pretty with his routes in the OF or had above average speed, even this year from what I have seen of him. However, he can still be average and there is a big difference between being a -5 to -10 outfielder per annum and being Brad Hawpe or Dunn in the outfield. He can also still make plenty of improvments in his fielding though I really do not see him becoming above average.
On looking at his ISO, I presume you are using the average for this year. This is really misleading for Snider hit in a hitter’s paradise for 200 PAs and the rest was spent in the MLB making adjustments. Stanton, on the other hand, hit in an extreme pitcher’s park, in a pitchers league, while in Jupiter. Also, Jacksonville is no walk in the park either.
Looking at this year’s stats really underrates Snider’s power though. Him having an ISO above .200 in Lansing in the Midwest League, just out of high school, is significant in showing what kind of power potential he has. In 2008 and 2009 he was pushed hard and saw his numbers understandibly drop. In contrast, I think Stanton’s power potential was slightly overstated by his 2008 campaign in Greensboro, which was a bit of a launching pad that year according to BBTF’s 2008 park factors. This year did a great deal to remove my doubts but there remains one problem.
Stanton’s plate discipline is where Stanton’s was at last year in AA. Specifically, around a 33 % K rate, which is where Snider finished at last year except he also had a higher walk rate. K/BB normalizes pretty quickly for batters, so this is not so much a problem of SSS. Also, Snider put in a BABIP of .320 in the MLB this year, about what you would expect, his AAA numbers are not very telling of anything this year and probably should be thrown out instead of blending them together with his MLB ones.
I see Snider as still being more likely to be the better hitter at this point due to better plate discipline and solid preformance at a higher level this year. Overall,Stanton is better as an entire package due to his defense.
by tdot mariner fan on Dec 14, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
comments don't match the poll
All of the comments seem to be favoring Stanton, but the poll says it’s a lot closer than that. Why isn’t anybody sticking up for Snider?
re
and no, I’m not just being a smart ass. I didn’t vote on this one because I honestly don’t know who I’d vote for.
Good question
I voted for Stanton prior to reading the comments mainly due to the fact that I think his bat has more power than Snider’s, and he will be more valuable defensively.
I think Snider will be the better hitter (slightly)
but I think its almost certain Stanton will be the better player – even if his bat isnt as good as I think it is.
Voted Stanton. Im kind of glad to see Snider get some credit, though. It seemed like eveyone gave up on him… still a pretty good chance he’s a middle of the order kind of hitter.
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