Ike Davis vs Yonder Alonso

by Dewey Finn on Dec 10, 2009 10:43 AM EST

Who do you believe is the better 1B prospect?

Both guys were drafted in the 2008 Draft, Alonso going 7th overall, and Davis 18th overall. Heading into the season, I definitely preferred Alonso over Davis. He has an excellent approach at the plate and much better control of the strikezone than Davis. Davis' minor league career actually got off to a very slow start in '08 and many Mets fans (according to various websites) were calling him a bust. However, at the end of the 2009 season, I'm not so sure if I would prefer Alonso over Davis anymore. Davis had a tremendous season and showed why he was a star at AZU. He displayed the power you would want from a 1B bat and has made the Mets brass believe that he'll be ready by 2011. Davis has a solid walk rate, but needs to cut down on the strikeouts.

Ike Davis (born 1987) - .298/.381/.524/.906 (A+, AA)

Yonder Alonso (born 1987) - .292/.372/.464/.838 (A+, AA)

Looking to the future, I see Ike Davis putting up 30+ HRs with a .280-.290 avg. Alonso should post a higher batting avg .300+ but with less power probably in the 15-24 HR range (with help from Great American Ballpark). I'm not sure how they fair defensively, but Davis doesn't seem to have a roadblock at 1B in NY, whereas Votto seems to be doing a nice job at 1B for CIN. Could Alonso be moved to LF? I think Votto might be better suited to play the OF due to his athleticism. One concern that I do have for Alonso with regards to power is that he had his hamate bone broken in 2009. Both Davis and Alonso need to improve against southpaws as well.

Anyways, what are your thoughts? Who would you prefer as your 1B? Possible comps?

I think Davis has closed the gap on Alonso.

FWIW, in the AFL...

Davis (21 games) - .341/.394/.565/.958

Alonso (21 games) - .267/.353/.395/.748

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Davis is a beast

by Marinerfanjake on Dec 10, 2009 10:47 AM EST reply actions

Davis is supposed to be a plus plus defender from what I've read

At first that is.

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by JD Sussman on Dec 10, 2009 10:53 AM EST reply actions

Good glove ...

from all reports and also real good arm – to the point where he could give it a shot at pitching if the bat thing flames out.
Probably athletic enough to play a corner OF spot if needed.

The main questions going forward are his abilities to adjust to breaking balls and LHPs.

by Frayed Knot on Dec 10, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

Ike

I watched Ike for 3 years at ASU. He is indeed very athletic for a 1b. He played mostly RF/closer for us and is probably athletic enough to handle an OF corner in the pros. His arm is strong, but his fastball fluctuated in his time at college. He was low 90s as a freshman and one of our weekend starters. By the time he left he was in the mid 80s and only relief work. I don’t know the reason for the degression.

His power will be his calling card. He hit some moon shots for us, but I would be concerned with the K’s (which he did frequently in college as well)

by ScottAZ on Dec 10, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Give me Yonder.

I guess I’m not swayed much by a small sample size at AA where Davis struck out way too much while putting up nice numbers.

Yonder was way in the lead for me before mid-‘09, and he didn’t do anything in the minors to hurt my opinion of him. He’s got an amazing approach, and what looks to be pretty good power. Davis is the ‘hot new thing’, but I’m not much for hot new things until they can show me more than this.

by PissedMick on Dec 10, 2009 11:26 AM EST reply actions

This.

All due respect to Davis — and I do like the superior defense he provides — but I need to see more than a half-season of Ike marginally outperforming a banged-up Alonso before I override all the previous data on these players.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 11, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

I’m not sure what the Reds will do with Yonder. He can only play first defensively and they have 3 or 4 prospects for LF (Heisey, Frazier, Francisco (eventually, he was an error machine when I saw him last year at 3B)) so moving Votto to Left would just block other top prospects.

Davis has a clearer path in the Mets system and should be able to play other positions if needed.

I prefer Yonder, but I don’t think he’ll play in MLB as a Red.

by Cormican on Dec 10, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions

Like 'em both but I'd take Davis

I have questions about Alonso’s power. I’m not too enraptured by 1B’s who hit 15-20 jacks a year.

by nivarsity on Dec 10, 2009 12:07 PM EST reply actions

What makes you think that Yonder's anything like that?

He hit a HR every 10 ABs his last two years at Miami, and was on pace for ~25 per season at A+. Does putting a lot of weight into 105 AA at-bats seem reasonable?

by PissedMick on Dec 10, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

eh

i’m not concerned w/ what he did at miami. IMO you have to be a little worried about his power because 2 is a pretty sorry number. now i personally think the hamate injury probably limited his pop but just like you can’t overrate those 100ab’s you also can’t just ignore them altogether.

bottomline, i personally only start to really buy into a prospect once he proves himself in AA; davis did it, alonso didn’t. so at this point, considering both were very highly touted, first rounders w/ nice college resumes, ike is ahead for me.

by Rob Castellano on Dec 10, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, you really can ignore 100 ABs.

His college stats are infinitely more telling than what happened in 25 AA games.

by PissedMick on Dec 10, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

Really?

Infinitely?

So his at bats against Boston College and Maryland are INFINITELY more telling than those against AA pitching? I nominate you for the most hyperbolic post of the EON!!!

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 11, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

Yes.

Those stats are significantly more meaningful that 100 AA ABs, especially with something as ethereal as a small-sample HR rate.

After starting his professional career in A+, Alonso hit doubles and homeruns over 175 AB at a rate that would get him 41 and 22 in a 550 AB season.

In 105 AA ABs, his rates would’ve got him 58 doubles and 11 HR in 550 ABs.

So a few hits dropped for doubles instead of leaving the park. If three of his AA doubles went over the wall instead of banging off of it, he’d be at a 27 HR pace in AA.

The point is, it’s not worth worrying about.

by PissedMick on Dec 11, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

Here's My Point

I have a hard time believing that stats generated in the ACC are somehow more telling that those put up in AA ball. There are a couple of major flaws in that line of thinking to me. First is that the level of competition varies wildly, even within the conference itself, let alone games played against Elon, Mercer, FIU, etc. You could play against teams with a A+ level of talent one day then play someone who’d have a hard time beating a Complex league team.

Second, are the statistics themselves are much more dubious that AA stats. Oh, you’ll get accurate basic counting stats just fine, but the more in depth stuff is practically nonexistent. You might as well use High School stats.

I don’t care who is better or what the exact numbers are. You can have a good argument who’ll be a better Major League player either way. What I will never agree to is your opinion that ACC stats are of more value than AA stats. The closer you get to the Majors, the better the statistics are. They are much more predictative and, to me, more valuable. The further you go, the less credence I give them. It’s all about scouting at the lowest of levels.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 11, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

It's all about sample size.

I can’t really say it more clearly than that. ~500 AB of premier college ball will tell you more than 100 AB at AA. If the sample was equal, of course AA would mean more.

by PissedMick on Dec 11, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

That the AA numbers suffer from SSS, but that just means that both sets of stats are unreliable. What you’re really choosing is which pile of manure stinks less.

You’re throwing around phrases like “infinitely more telling” and “significantly more meaningful” and I strenuously disagree with that. Neither have much predicative value when you try to forecast how well either will do in the Major Leagues. I repeat, the further you go from the Major Leagues, the more scouting takes precedence over statistics. Don’t ask me what the tipping point is though … shrug

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 12, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

And yes, any statement using the word "infinitely" is typically hyperbole.

by PissedMick on Dec 11, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

I wasn't intending to say Alonso is certain to only hit 15-20 jacks.

Just saying that I’m not sure if he has the power projection I want from a 1B. Alonso had a .460 SLG last year. He has some projection, but it’s 1B. The power’s not optional.

He might end up more like a Casey/LaRoche/Overbay type — a 1B who provides some offense but doesn’t elite power. Nothing wrong with that kind of player, but they are replaceable, not building blocks. I think Davis is more likely to be a building block.

by nivarsity on Dec 11, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

I love Alonso's swing and think his power will develop

If it doesn’t it will be tough for him to play everyday on a tier one team.

I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by JD Sussman on Dec 10, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

I think its pretty close

Total package, Alonso probably has the higher upside. If the power comes as predicted, he’ll be an absolute monster. Davis is the better defender though, is closer right now to what he’ll eventually be, has the clearer path to the majors, and more defensive versatility in that he’d probably carry a similar value if he were moved to a corner outfield spot (defense becomes less of a plus due to below average speed, but plus arm helps him carry some value and he gets a boost for positional adjustments), but he probably doesn’t have uberstar potential the way Alonso does.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 12:56 PM EST reply actions

Perhaps 3rd for Davis (though clearly not as a Met, since they have that covered).

by Cormican on Dec 10, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

How many left-handed fielding 3B have there been in the majors over the past 30 years or so?

by jibs on Dec 10, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

Can you name one?

by aap212 on Dec 10, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

well put

by jibs on Dec 10, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

Mike Squires???

Without doing any research I’d be willing to bet $5 that he’s the last lefty to start a game at 3b

by ScottAZ on Dec 10, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

You would owe 5$

Mario Valdez, CWS, 1997

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valdema02.shtml

by alskor on Dec 10, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

the bet still stands

Valdez didn’t start the game at 3b. Your guy came in for one inning as a defensive replacement.

Squires actually started games as a left handed 3b for the Whitesox

by ScottAZ on Dec 10, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Ha

Got me. damn. Looked quick, saw a full “1.0” – didn’t look to see the column was “Innings” not “games”

by alskor on Dec 10, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

Ok, found one

Weird one – Don Mattingly.

Here’s an article about lefty 3B – http://www.immaculateinning.com/2008/07/left-handed-third-basemen.html

Mattingly himself vaguely recalled the circumstances in a November 2004 interview on his website. From the boxscore, it seems as though the players were shuffled around the field, with Mattingly moving from first to third. Mattingly started an around-the-horn double play to end his first inning of work at the hot corner. He would have five other assists and a putout in the rest of the game. The next day, Mattingly actually started the first game in a doubleheader at third base, though he moved to first in the sixth inning. Wayne Tolleson replaced him at third and started the second game. Pags did pinch hit in both games but did not return to regular action until September 4. Mattingly played one more game at third and that was it for his career.

by alskor on Dec 10, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

Box

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA198608301.shtml

by alskor on Dec 10, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

should have known

Donnie Baseball was my all time fav as a kid. No idea why since I grew up in Arizona. I had all of his posters “Hit Man” by Converse, “Man with the Golden Glove” by Franklin. Too bad I didn’t hold onto them because I saw “hit man” poster on ebay for $250, but thats a different story.

I do remember Mattingly playing 2b and even playing CF. He was slow afoot in a sprint, but was incredibly quick and great hands and a very accurate arm. If he was righty instead of lefty he would have been a top notch SS

by ScottAZ on Dec 11, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Hick Carpenter

He threw left, but batted right. He was also unbelievably horrible in the field, but somehow he managed to play 1059 games there. 591 errors and a .853 fielding percentage, but actually only a -31 TotalZone and was actually +7 one year.

"I see the job in bigger terms. Paperwork, that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?"

by Evan_S on Dec 10, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions

Good point, wasn’t thinking of that.

by Cormican on Dec 10, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Alonso

He probably is the more complete hitter compared to Davis. Low K rate, high BB rate, should be able to hit the ball to all fields and maintain a high batting average. I was just trying to make the point that there was a huge difference between Alonso and Davis heading into the season and that Davis has done a great job in closing the gap with his 2009 season. I definitely don’t think Alonso really hurt his value in any aspect, its Davis that increased his value significantly. I do like them both and believe they will have really good careers in the majors. Both do need to improve against lefties, while Alonso needs to develop some more power, Davis needs to trim the Ks.

by Dewey Finn on Dec 10, 2009 1:23 PM EST reply actions

SSS issue but very interesting.

http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/12/08/afl-speed-data

I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JD Sussman on Dec 10, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions

Thank you for the link!

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 10, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

Davis

Ike played right field for the USA team so even if he was blocked at first he has some versatility.

I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.

W.H. Auden

by jimduquettesucked on Dec 10, 2009 2:51 PM EST reply actions

I'm a Mets fan

But with his strikeout rate I have a really hard time seeing Ike consistently hitting .280-.290. Not that he can’t improve upon it, but he’s got a lot of improving to do. For a guy with average/below average speed it’s pretty much impossible to maintain that kind of batting average with a strikeout rate like that.

by Fanon on Dec 10, 2009 10:42 PM EST reply actions

Yup, agreed

He does draw walks though, so I’m more curious about where his power tops off. I don’t think he’ll ever be great at putting the ball in play, but even with a lower batting average, he could put up a ~.350 OBP. I suspect with Davis, the difference between a .200 ISO and .250 ISO is going to be the difference between average production and above average production.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 3:55 AM EST up reply actions

Ryan Howard

has a career average of ~.280 and an OBP of nearly .380 and no one strikes out more than Howard (well, maybe Mark Reynolds). Tell me if Davis turned into Howard (who is not fleet of foot himself) you wouldn’t be thrilled. The Mets could have a pretty formidable team in a few years.

by Cormican on Dec 11, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't...

I have never liked Howard though that could be more because of my hatred for the Phillies than of him as a player. I don’t like players who only hit homers. Even if it is a lot of them. Give me a player like John Olerud over a player like Howard anyday.

by joegonzo on Dec 11, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions