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Last year's rookies, top community prospects for future performance #19

If you told me last spring that when we did this poll after the season, that Laporta would have gotten enough at bats to use up his rookie eligibility but wouldn't be picked until #18, I would have guessed that he would have really screwed up this year.  But, he actually did very well in AAA, and in limited playing time in the majors did reasonably well also.  There is certainly nothing about last year that should cause anyone to downgrade him seriously.  As others have mentioned, there was a very deep rookie class.

Anyway, compared to round 17, Blanks dropped about 3% while Laporta's vote total soared, so that Laporta wins round 18 easily with 37% of the vote, more than 2 to 1 over Blanks.  Here is where we are so far:

  

1. Matt Wieters, C Baltimore

2. Tommy Hanson, P Atlanta

3. Andrew McCutchen, of Pittsburgh

4. Brett Anderson P Oakland

5 Gordon Beckham, 3b CHW

6. Rick Porcello, P Detroit.

7.Elvis Andrus, SS Texas

8. Colby Rasmus, of St. Louis

9. David Price, P Tampa Bay

10. Travis Sinder, of Toronto 

11.  Dexter Fowler, of Colorado

12. Chris Tillman, p Baltimore

13t. Matt Latos, p San Diego

13t  Derek Holland, p Texas

15. Cameron Maybin, of Florida


16t Chris Coghlan, of Florida

16t Trevor Cahill, P Oakland

 
18t Matt Laporta of/1b Cleveland

  


Star-divide

Tommy Hunter, Brad Bergesen, Casey McGehee, and Randy Wells all drew less than 5% last round and are temporarily dropped from the poll.  All will return in a later poll, although beginning with the results of this round (going into round 20), players who have extremely low support (initially the bar is set at 0%) will not be returned to any subsequent poll in order that players with the best support can be considered during the final rounds.

J.A. Happ, Daniel Bard, Ricky Romero and Drew Stubbs are returned for another chance this round and we will give Cliff Pennington his first shot.

temporarily dropped from the poll (percentage and round in parens) Marc Rzepcynski 2% (15), Jeff Neimann, 2% (16), Luis Valbuena, 0% (16), Gerardo Parra 0% (16), Julio Borbon 1% (16), Tommy Hunter 2% (18), Brad Bergesen 1% (18), Casey MGehee 1% (18), Randy Wells 0% (18).

With just 6 rounds left after this one I am going to list players who I am considering adding before this poll ends in hopes that this will generate some discussion.   Among hitters I am thinking of Garret Jones, Brett Gardner, and Taylor Teagarden.  Among pitchers, a longer list including Clayton Richard, Scott Richmond, Gio Gonzalez, David Hernandez, Brett Cecil and Brian Duensing among starters, and Aceves, Sipp and Mijares among relievers.  I am probably going to have room to add about 8-10 players the rest of the way, so if you like someone on  this list, and especially if you like someone not on this list, please mention them below.

Poll
Who is the best prospect for future major league performance among the following, who used up thei rookie eligibility in 2009?
Andrew Bailey, P Oakland
23 votes
Kyle Blanks, of San Diego
44 votes
Nolan Reimold, of Baltimore
29 votes
Mat Gamel, 3b Milwaukee
12 votes
Everth Cabrera, ss San Diego
7 votes
J.A. Happ, p Philadelphia
10 votes
Daniel Bard, p Boston
26 votes
Ricky Romero, p Toronto
24 votes
Drew Stubbs, of Cincinnatti
16 votes
Cliff Pennington, ss Oakland
2 votes
other (please specify below)
2 votes

195 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments

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i went with Romero

and I’d like to see Gio on the next poll… he’s going to figure it all out one year and be a good pitcher methinks… heck, jorge de la rosa is like 29 and finally had a breakout year in 09.

i always give the lefties a little cushion

by daveh33 on Dec 1, 2009 12:25 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I also went with Romero

I also want to second vote for Gonzalez. He has great stuff and is starting to put it together. He put a 4.4 somethin FIP despite having some very shaky starts early in the year. He has a good deal more potential than most of the players here with exception of Blanks.

 I really do not understand all the reliever votes. The top 10 relievers this year all barely compiled 2 WAR. However, this list is extremely volatile from year to year because SSS can see weird batted ball profiles mess up relievers yearly numbers. Even if you think Bailey or Bard is a yearly 2 WAR reliever, that is the same as a league average position player, something much easire to find. The only reason to take an elite reliever over an average position player is scarcity, but this is not what this list is looking at.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 1, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Finally get to vote for Romero

His resurgent stuff really impressed me.

If you could line up all these players and work them out, Im confident Romero and Bard would stand out like sore thumbs.

Also, its an absolute joke anyone is voting for Bailey over Bard. How can you rationalize that…? Bard was better this year and has better stuff. There should be zero votes for Bailey right now.

by alskor on Dec 1, 2009 12:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Is this supposed to be conclusive?

Bard strikes out more people but Bailey looks to have better control since moving to the pen. Bailey K’s plenty of people so I will take the better control.

I prefer Blanks to both of these guys at this point but I still don’t see how Bard is clearly better than Bailey going forward. I definitely have not seen much of Bard so I don’t have a good argument in regards to stuff but my impression was that Bard had the great fastball velocity but Bailey had the better overall repertoire. I’m open to changing my opinion though if there is a real argument in there somewhere.

by DiegoAsFan on Dec 1, 2009 12:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It should be conclusive, yes

You should probably take off your A’s sunglasses and have another look.

Bard has the better velocity and repertoire, AND he was the better pitcher in 2009. Bailey turned out better than expected, but Bard is a special arm.

by alskor on Dec 1, 2009 12:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh there is the sound reasoning I was hoping for

oh wait, that was just an ad hominem attack combined with the same opinion statements with no backing.

Shame on me for trying to start a reasonable discussion.

by DiegoAsFan on Dec 1, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There is a problem with both of them going forward.

They are both relievers. But given both of them, I would choose Bailey currently, mainly cause he has proven to handle the closers role. There is no telling how Bard is going to. Even with his stuff. If you look at the break down, they are even pitchers.

Scouts like Bard more, but the numbers don’t. Look at the sections label pitch type and value. Bard relies on his FB, which the numbers say isnt all that great, even with his velocity. Bailey has a wider range of pitches, and most are more effective.

Hell I will add a name that could be discussed with these two, Luke Gergerson. They are all relievers, maybe they close, but all are relievers.

by AirmanSD on Dec 1, 2009 7:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This "handling the closer's role"

Im pretty sure that is why Bailey IS getting votes. That’s a joke. I would think people would know better than to put stock in something like that.

I really feel confident that if you lined up baseball execs pretty much every single one would take Bard over Bailey going forward. If you want, email some (intelligent) writers (is there such a thing…?) and find one to contradict that. Bailey is very good – in fact, I was the guy who kept bringing him up last year on here as a guy not to forget about. I would love to have Bailey on my team. I just can’t imagine anyone actually taking him over Bard, who was held in higher esteem in college, held in higher esteem leading up to the draft, drafted much higher and then regarded to be a better prospect – and, oh year, he actually had a better rookie season than Bailey.

I should add my voice to the chorus arguing that no reliever should be chosen yet. Also, Im not a Blanks fan – as I previously made clear – and I wouldnt take him here… but I dont think its a huge reach. I just dont agree with the thought process behind it.

by alskor on Dec 1, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What the heck are you talking about???

Bailey had a far superior rookie season in almost every way. The thing that Bard did better in was K/9 and Bailey did quite well himself (also a lil better than 9 K/9).

Bard may have been more highly touted prospect, but things can change, and Bailey was a starter for most his minor league career. Maybe if he became a RP earlier he would have been more highly touted, seeing as he dominated once moved to the pen.

So maybe you need to take off your Boston glasses.

by Berserk on Dec 1, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There's a pretty big difference between walking 4 guys per 9 innings (Bard) and walking ~2.5 guys per nine innings (Bailey).

Walking 4 guys per 9, in case you haven’t figured it out, is bad.

Also, it’s rather hilarious that you’re waving around fangraphs numbers, as if they show that Bard is better than Bailey….when they show, in fact, the exact opposite. Bailey put up a far better WPA, WPA/Li, and WAR (yes, I know WAR is a counting stat, but Bailey would still have a better WAR if he pitched the same amount of innings as Bard) than Bard.

And in terms of stuff, well, Bailey’s fastball was 14.9 runs above average in 09, good for third among AL relievers. His cutter was 4.6 runs above average (fourth among AL relievers). Bard’s fastball, while faster, was 2.0 runs below average. So regarding stuff, I’m fine with Bailey thanks. At the very least, it’s a lot closer than what you’re making it out to be.

So no, it’s not clear cut that Bard is better than Bailey. And currently, there’s a lot more evidence that Bailey is better than Bard. Next time, I’d try coming up with a sound argument and evidence that actually supports your position before telling everyone off (and accusing them of being homers) because they like a player better than the one you like.

Cause it just makes you look like a giant douche.

by Tripp on Dec 2, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Ok

Took some time to think about it and look at it again. Some good points were brought up. I concede its closer than I originally portrayed it, but I do still think Bard is the choice going forward.

by alskor on Dec 2, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if this is for real life value...

and we’re including defensive contributions, stubbs has to be considered over the likes of reimold, gamel, et al…

he’s really a defensive whiz and he showed he can hack it a little after his call up

by PHGold09 on Dec 1, 2009 1:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Went with Reimold again

But it was close for him and Blanks

Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com

Follow me on twitter

by ravensfan3 on Dec 1, 2009 7:09 AM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Drew Stubbs

An elite defensive CFer who should be average offensively. He put up a 1.5 WAR season in just 42 games last year.

Ricky Romero is a close second.

by jar75 on Dec 1, 2009 9:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I’m torn between those two. Alskor’s argument against Blanks was pretty persuading in the last thread.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 1, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How about Medlen?

I know relievers aren’t highly valued but the kid had a nice year last year. I think he should at least be an option.

by Braves1983 on Dec 1, 2009 9:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Blanks is the easy choice for me here.

He is really the only possible impact bat left. After that Its close between 3 blue jays starters for me Rzep, Romero and Cecil.

Cecil has not gotten any mention on here yet even though he was ranked much higher as a prospect going into the year, he was just rushed a little, but i would not be suprised if he was better than Romero this coming year. I think I would rate them as Cecil, Rzep followed by Romero(who has a history of injuries) but they are all very close to me

by JJACK on Dec 1, 2009 10:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not an inspiring list for me

but too lazy to contemplate others (and an others vote is almost always wasted as there’s no chance of others winning). Blanks or Reimold for me. I think I’m leaning Reimold, as I think his bat will be more consistent than Blanks.

by toonsterwu on Dec 1, 2009 12:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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