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BA NYM TOP 10

See BA story here

1. Jenrry Mejia, rhp

2. Wilmer Flores, ss

3. Fernando Martinez, of

4. Ike Davis, 1b

5. Brad Holt, rhp

6. Jon Niese, lhp

7. Reese Havens, 2b/ss

8. Josh Thole, c

9. Ruben Tejada, 2b/ss

10. Juan Urbina, lhp

*** Fernando Martinez was ranked 1st in each of the last two years.

*** Could argue Niese belongs above Holt. The same writer had the two flipped last year. I don't see why they were flipped now.

*** Jefry Marte, who was ranked 6th last year, doesn't get much of a mulligan for struggling against older competition. The 18-year-old had a miserable year in the Sally League, hitting .233/.279/.338 with a 25/117 BB/K in 425 AB. He also committed 49 errors, for what that's worth.

*** Despite missing a lot of time in each of the past two years, Havens doesn't seem to be downgraded all that much. In fact, he is up 1 slot from last year. I've just never been a big fan. I'd take Tejada before him.

*** Urbina was the Mets biggest international splash this year.... son of Ugueth Urbina.... has not pitched yet.

*** Jeurys Familia is a surprising omission.... would have thought he would have been on here before Urbina.

Poll
Who's YOUR #1 in the Mets system?
Mejia
68 votes
Flores
21 votes
Martinez
59 votes
Davis
27 votes
Other
4 votes

179 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 103 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Comments

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I too don't understand Holt above Niese

In their write-ups of each player, they list both of them with a ceiling of a 3rd/4th starter, but Niese’s floor is considerably higher than Holt’s in my opinion.

by jibs on Nov 6, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions  

Holt’s upside is higher though, he already has a plus heater and his breaking ball is showing some real potential albeit inconsistent. Niese will always be a fringe-average FB guy. It’s one of those what do you favor in a prospect, and they chose Upside over Floor/Near-Readiness.

by adropofvenom on Nov 6, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Havens

I think he’s ranked appropriately.

I was a bit surprised that Urbina was included though.

by Jeff Reese on Nov 6, 2009 12:12 PM EST reply actions  

yeah

I’d rather see Nieuwenhuis, Allen, or Familia up there than Urbina

by jibs on Nov 6, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Very surprised it wasn't Nieuwenhuis

Considering they also graded him as the best defensive outfielder in the system. If that’s true, he’s got some star potential and looks like he’s on track to be a very good big leaguer at the very least. He has the tools, he needs to work on making contact a bit, but he runs well, he has power, he walks, and he plays good defense. Everything you look for in a good outfield prospect.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe best athlete

They maybe don’t have any real good defensive outfielders at upper levels. Kirk is solid, but at MLB level he might be better as a plus corner. He might have been a good candidate for best athlete, though.

I’m not sure who the defensive outfielders were at lower levels. Maybe Rafael Fernandez was deserving. And Darrell Ceciliani might be a candidate.

  

by acerimusdux on Nov 6, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah thats what I thought, someone like Puello maybe

I also do think some of the defensive concern with Nieuwenhuis is his size. He’s a big guy, so he may lose some athleticism as he fills out. I agree, my impression is that he’ll be better served in a corner, where he seems to have enough of an offensive profile to fit and could probably play plus defense. I still don’t see how they could grade him as the best defensive OF in the system though and then leave him off the list in favor of a teenage IFA who hasn’t thrown a pitch yet. Not saying the first condition is necessarily true, but that appears to be Rubin’s judgment, and it seems a little inconsistent.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

just the fact

that Kirk, Famila and Allen all have good arguments to be on the list shows the fact the system has improved, which kinda belies the introductory standard issue bashing of the team and system. Which admittedly didn’t have a good upper level or a stream of standout reinforcements this year, but organizational w-L record doesn’t seem to me to be a good way to judge a system.

by wobatus on Nov 6, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Good point

They had Nieuwenhuis as the 13th best prospect in the FSL, so if he’s not making the top 10 here, that’s a pretty deep list. A definite improvement over a year ago anyway.

I do think some of that is that they didn’t graduate a lot of talent, as both Niese and Martinez were basically prevented from graduating due to injuries. But even without those guys, if you added Nieuwenhuis and Familia instead, it would be a solid list.

Rubin certainly seems determined to accentuate the negative in his write up, though. He spends an awful lot of time on minor changes in the front office. He also mentions that Martinez struggled before his injury, but ignores that Niese pitched well before his. And, he neglects to even mention Mejia or Davis, much less Niewenhuis or Familia.

No positive development in the system this year was worth commenting on in the system summary, I suppose.

by acerimusdux on Nov 6, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Comments

1. Fernando is still the best guy there for me. It could be Mejia, depending on how much you want to project his breaking ball. If Mejia can really learn to command that pitch, he could even be a top 20 guy as soon as sometime next season, but I think some are prematurely ranking him as elite. The command and location isn’t there yet.

2. I also think Holt needs to continue to improve his command of his secondary offerings to rank ahead of Niese. Niese is commanding everything right now, especially the plus curve. Holt should have the better fastball, but I’m not sure he’s the better SP.

3. I mostly agree with the tools section, Mejia best FB, Niese best CB, Rustich SL, Gee CU, but Valdespin as “best athlete” is a real head scratcher.

4. Urbina is currently sitting mid-80s. Very hard to see him ahead of Familia or Matz right now. He got a good bonus, but with the bonus escalation we’ve seen in recent years in Latin America, that doesn’t really mean all that much.

5. The name Adam Rubin on the list at this point doesn’t do much for credibility.

by acerimusdux on Nov 6, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions  

What about Kirk as best defensive outfielder?

I recall reading reports that he probably won’t stick at CF.

by JayWise on Nov 6, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

That was my impression too

But that he as a pretty good athlete and had the tools to improve, just not the skills. What surprises me is that if they do think he’s the best outfielder in the system, how he could not be on the Top 10. He’s got a very good offensive profile. There seems to be some slight risk that he could be a tweener if he doesn’t find a way to make more contact or play good CF defense, but if either or both of those gets improved on, he could be a very good player. I don’t see how he could rank below a raw arm who hasn’t pitched like Urbina.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions  

What I've heard

Is that he’s a bit like Nate McLouth in that he can probably stick there for a few years but is better suited to a corner.

by Fanon on Nov 7, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions  

For what its worth

On minorleaguesplits.com, he’s rated -25 TZ/150, which is about as godawful as it gets.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 7, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, but the question to ask is he taking poor routes, getting poor reads/jumps, which leads to poor range? Or is he just not a good enough athlete for CF? One is fixable, one isn’t.

With that said, I get the feeling that “Best Defensive OF” in the Mets system right now is about the equivalent of being the tallest midget. Only F-Mart is a notable OF prospect in the upper levels, and he isn’t exactly known for his defense. They could have elected another Rookie Baller like Cecliciani or Puello probably, but they’re so far away that my guess is they stayed away from them. I tend to agree that his future is in a Corner OF position, but if he’s a 20/20 hitter like they implied in their chat, that’s still awfully valuable, and deserving of a Top 10 ranking.

by adropofvenom on Nov 8, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Point taken

Though I tend to pretty much totally disregard minor league defensive stats.

by Fanon on Nov 9, 2009 5:52 AM EST up reply actions  

havens to 2b is a fairly major development

also where does josh satin fit in (good stats, some power, but now will be blocked)

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 6, 2009 1:17 PM EST reply actions  

It is?

I don’t think it’s all that noteworthy. I thought that everyone believed that his future position was 2nd base? This is the equivalent to Flores moving off of SS or Montero moving to 1B.

by Jeff Reese on Nov 6, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait, why?

If everyone was expecting him to move to second base, and he moves to second base, his prospect status should not be affected.

by Jeff Reese on Nov 6, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure it should.

Before, there was a chance he’d stick at SS. Now there’s not. Seems pretty simple.

by PissedMick on Nov 8, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

there really wasn't any chance of that.

Ask, like, ANY scout.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

...which was that he was a future 2b.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 9, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

...which was that it was worth playing him at SS for a year to see if it was feasible.

If the Mets had him pegged as a 2B, they would’ve moved him there as soon as possible so he could learn the position.

The logic’s not that hard to see.

by PissedMick on Nov 10, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

That's not the Mets history at all.

They played Milledge and Gomez in center for years despite knowing Beltran was on the big club. They still play Fernando in center even though it is a foregone conclusion he’d move to the corners. They still play Tejada at short though everyone knows he’s moving to second should he make it to the show, they kept Murphy at third until a few weeks before he was called up. The reason they kept him at short was probably for trade value. Everyone knew he was gonna move to second should he stay with the Mets.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 11, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Having a star on the big club doesn't change a prospect's ability.

The Mets thought those players had the ability to play the positions they played in the minors, so they stayed there. Having Joe Mauer on the big club doesn’t hurt Wilson Ramos’ ability to catch.

A prospect’s value is the same regardless of the big team’s lineup.

by PissedMick on Nov 11, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure what this means regarding Havens.

I have no idea what his defensive ability is, TotalZone has him at -3 this year, -7/150, certainly not good, but not horrendous. I don’t know why they decided to move him now, a guess could be they’re keeping Tejada in AA and want to play the both of them together, I don’t know. But the fact is, it was known when they drafted him that if he was to stay with the Mets organization he was going to be moved off of short. I read of talk about even converting him to catcher on draft day. He was never gonna be a shortstop it was talked about the second they drafted him. Same way with Fernando. No one thinks he can stick in center, with the Mets or anyone else, but he still plays there. When Jesus Montero officially moves from catcher does that make him lose value? We all know it’s coming, it’s just a matter of when.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 12, 2009 2:15 AM EST up reply actions  

what Evan said.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Satin

Pretty sure Satin’s upside is that of utility player. At age 24, he’s well behind the age curve. He hits, but his swing is irregular (extreme arm bar) that limits his power upside. And he’s merely average at best at 2nd.

by thudean on Nov 6, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

right

satin to me is a utility guy but can definitely be a valuable player. he does nothing great but does everything well and apparently he’s very smart about his approach and a hard worker. i wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a mike fontenot-esque role w/ the mets or some other team around age 27 or so.

by Rob Castellano on Nov 7, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Thole
The downside of Thole’s approach is that he hits for little power and rarely works deep enough counts to walk.

Am I the only one who thought that this was crazy??

Here’s his minor league profile.

by JayWise on Nov 6, 2009 1:55 PM EST reply actions  

Hitting for no Power – True
Doesn’t walk – False.

by adropofvenom on Nov 6, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Looks to me like a Yadier Molina who got there much faster

On the other hand, being good early as a catcher is not necessarily a good thing

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 6, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Let's not get ahead of ourselves

Kendall at his high could post a 4+ WAR season no problem.

He had some pop too.

Thole’s upside should produce similar BA/OBP but the slugging should be less with less defense as well.

by METSMETSMETS on Nov 6, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the difference in SB will be HUGE

an average of 19 SB per season from 97 until 02 is tremendous for someone in the catching position.

by JayWise on Nov 6, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

He walked

in a little under 10% of his plate appearances, that’s above average, but it’s not like he walks a tremendous amount.

by Birdfan01 on Nov 6, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

For a hitter without much pop

That’s solid. I think the question of whether he often worked deep counts was where the objection was. He doesn’t swing at many pitches outside the zone, but being a singles and doubles hitter, he gets challenged early in a lot of counts, and I think that’s more where this whole debate begins and ends. If he every hypothetically did hit for more power, he would probably walk more and wind up in more deeper counts, but if he doesn’t, he’s going to get challenged, and more often than not he’s going to put the ball in play.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with Meddler

I’d also point out that the negation of “rarely walks” isn’t "walks a tremendous amount…it’s “walks more than ‘rarely’.” He walks more than the average player. That’s a long way from rare.

by JayWise on Nov 9, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Anyways, my thoughts

I like Flores, but it’s hard to justify ranking him above F-Mart or Davis at this point. Fact is those guys were productive in the high minors, Flores wasn’t productive in A ball. He’s young, he’s got plenty of time to reach that upside, but for now he’s got to be #4 at best, IMO.

Urbina at 10 seems like the token throwing something absurd out there in hopes of looking like a genius if it sticks…..problem is, he’s not the Mets 10th best prospect. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Kyle Allen, Jeurys Familia all deserve to be ranked well above him, and among people who haven’t even thrown a pitch yet, I’d rather have Steven Matz then Urbina anyways.

If I had to do a ranking, it’d look something like….

1) Fernando Martinez
2) Jenrry Mejia
3) Ike Davis
4) Wilmer Flores
5) Brad Holt
6) Jon Niese
7) Ruben Tejada
8) Josh Thole
9) Reese Havens
10) Kirk Nieuwenhuis
11) Kyle Allen
12) Jeurys Familia
13) Jefry Marte

by adropofvenom on Nov 6, 2009 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

i like yr ranking much better.

I’d still have Allen higher though. at 6-8 I think

by daveh33 on Nov 6, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

That looks good to me

with Puello, Matz, Moviel, Gee, Rustich all helping round out a top 20.

by acerimusdux on Nov 6, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I like Urbina better than Matz.

But I agree, he shouldn’t be above the guys on your list (except maybe Marte)

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 7, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

hmm?

this is certainly odd.

It seems that BA likes to chew em up and spit em out.

My ranks:

1) Mejia
2) Martinez
3) Davis
4) Niese
5) Holt
6) Flores
7) Thole
8) Tejada
9) Havens
10) Familia

Nieuwenhuis, Urbina and Allen are all in the mix as well.

Good system this year.

by METSMETSMETS on Nov 6, 2009 4:08 PM EST reply actions  

OOOooo I like BA here I like

good job BA !!!

except for Nieuwenhuis

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 6, 2009 5:07 PM EST reply actions  

The top 9 guys on this list will start 2010 at AA or above (plus Nieuwenhuis as well). That’s some nice upper level depth.

by jibs on Nov 6, 2009 6:00 PM EST reply actions  

Yea for next year...

but it didn’t help out this year at all. Also, I can;t wait until Davis comes up and tears the cover off the ball. The Mets and Braves are gonna own that division pretty soon.

by joegonzo on Nov 6, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Domonic Brown, Taylor, Drabek

added to their current team / traded for pieces needed….

Marlins: Stanton, Morrison, Dominguez, etc.

Strasburg, Norris, Storen, etc

by daveh33 on Nov 6, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok...

Phillies- core is getting into their thirties and likely to decline. Im not too high on Taylor or Dom Brown either. Drabek will be an effective pitcher though if not a great one.

Marlins- They will find a way to not win. Ramirez and Johnson might stay but the rest of the team will probably go. Don’t like the strikeouts with Stanton, Dominguez needs to start hitting, and I don;t think Morrison will be anything but solid.

Nationals- Starsburg will be great, Norris seems to me like Dave Ross jr, and Storen will be a good closer on a bad team. They will stay in last until they start spending money effectively.

Braves- Hanson and Heyward will make them compete by themselves for the next ten years. Combine them with players like Jurjens, Escobar, Shafer, McLouth, and McCann along with emerging stars like Julio Teheran, they will likely be good for a very long time.

Mets- Beltran may not be able to stick in center for more than the next couple years, but he will still produce with his bat. Davis will be good, Reyes, Santana, K-Rod, and Wright are already stars. Thole will be a solid number two hitter in their line-up, Pelfrey will be a solid work horse, Mejia could be an “ace” and fernando Martinez still has a ton of potential. Most importantly though, they will spend money like no other team in their division. I wouldn’t be suprised if they got Matt Holliday and a good starter like John Lackey this winter. With an amazing line-up and a solid and possibly spectacular rotation, they should have this division for a majority of the next decade with only the Braves showing them more than solid competition.

by joegonzo on Nov 6, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm a Mets fan and I like the Phillies system

I also really like Stanton. His power potential is other-worldly. Ryan Howard-esque (as in 30% HR/FB type numbers, no one else in MLB does that). But yeah, the Braves obviously have the cream on the NL East system-wise, and I think the Mets and Phillies are a ways back battling for second, and the Mets having the generally younger core and higher payroll, if they actually found some competent FO people, they should be able to do some nice things in the near future.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Joe makes a good point about the Phillies core, though.

For all the talk about how the Mets “choked” against the Phillies the last few years, the Phillies didn’t really do ANYTHING until their current core got into their primes. Wright and Reyes may be great, but they, if all goes normally, should be even better in a couple of years. With a vastly improving farm that finally has upper level depth, that’s something to really keep an eye on. Braves will be awesome, and I think the Marlins system is good too. I just don’t think the Nationals are going to win many games outside of Strasburg’s starts, and even for elite level pitching prospects, there’s a good deal of risk in terms of injury.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 7, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I think thats possible

But I think it says more about where the Phillies will be in five years than where the Mets will be. Despite the age gap, the Mets “core” rivaled the Phillies in every recent season except 2009, and in fact was better in most years. The problem was never the core or whether or not they might improve, the problem has been the supporting pieces. Where the Phillies have had quality (if douchey) players like Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz, etc., the Mets have had 40 year old Moises Alou or deteriorating Shawn Green or Luis Castillo, the rangless, slap hitting wonder. I really don’t think the Mets core is going to get that much better than they’ve already been for the most part (2009 excluded). Reyes could still improve, but leg injuries always carry attrition risks as well. Plus, by the time Reyes and Wright are in their age 28-30 seasons, odds are Beltran will be long gone, Santana will be in his mid-late 30s, and forget Carlos Delgado, obviously. So the Mets are going to have to restructure their “Core” a bit by the time their true home grown franchise talent is “comes of age” so to speak. And even then, Reyes and Wright won’t be that much better than they’ve been up until that point.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 7, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

But this is what I'm saying.

With their farm, and believing that at least some of these guys will mature the way Mets fans hope they will, they’ll finally have good, very solid supporting players. Guys like Reese Havens, Josh Thole, or Jon Niese are not very likely to become MVPs or superstars, but they all have a very good chance to be productive players in the majors. Add in some potential high upside guys, and if things go right, the Mets are in good shape. Of course, things hardly ever go ALL right, but I’d say the core plus the depth of the system gives the Mets a better chance than most, looking down the road a few years.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 7, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't disagree

I just don’t think talking about how the Phillies didn’t make it anywhere until their “core” reached their primes really says anything. I don’t think the Phillies are really evidence that we should expect Wright and Reyes to get any better. There’s still time for them to be the best two players on a championship caliber team, but there’s already been plenty of wasted opportunity for that.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 7, 2009 6:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh

I just think it’s funny that you say the Phillies core is getting old when 2 of the Mets’ stars are just as old if not older (hello, grandpa Beltran & Santana). Then you say the Marlins will find a way to lose. This comes from a fan of a team with one of the all-time choke jobs last year. In addition, the Marlins have won 2 world series since the Mets have won.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Nov 8, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Also

F-Rod will be 28, Wright 27 and Reyes 26 next year so they’re not all that much younger than the Phillies either.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Nov 8, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Chronically injured or underperforms??

From 2005-2008 Jose Reyes played 161, 153, 160, and 159 games and was 5+ WAR in the three latter seasons, at age 23-25. How is that “underperforming”?. He had leg problems before that, when he was still around 20, and he obviously had a horrible year health wise, but “chronically injured” and “old for 26” seems like a huge overstatement based on one season. Not many “old for” players steal 50 bases every year while playing SS and racking up 60+ XBH ever year and getting on base at a .350+ clip.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 8, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

What I meant is that what I think will go on from here on out.

He’s the new Rafael Furcal and I said that’s what he was going to be two years ago and got ripped for it. Remember the Reyes vs. Hanley comparisons, well Hanley has Reyes beat in durability and is a better run producer.

by Bravesin07 on Nov 8, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions  

not buying it for a second

just because reyes had a season-ending injury this year your furcal statement is suddenly more accurate? what about the last 2 years since you said that when he posted two 5+ WAR seasons? you’re cherrypicking a bit there.

and you’re right, reyes isn’t as good as ramirez but nobody is, only pujols himself is consistently more valuable.

by Rob Castellano on Nov 8, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

He's the new Rafael Furcal?

Furcal’s best season was 4.4 WAR, and he did that when he was 27. Granted there’s no UZR data for 2000 and 2001 (and therefore no WAR data on fangraphs), and he did have a .359 wOBA in 2000, he’s never even cracked 4 WAR in any other season. Reyes has already had three seasons considerably better than any Furcal has had. Furcal also hadn’t cracked double digit homers until he was 25, something Reyes had already done in three consecutive seasons by that age. If he’s the new Rafael Furcal, he’s the new and improved Rafael Furcal. We can speculate about how his leg injury this year will effect his future, but none of us have enough information to make a substantial claim in that regard. We can say having an injury is worse than not having an injury in terms of future projection, but that doesn’t tell us much. None of us have the medical information necessary to claim anything further.

Obviously, its pretty well established that Ramirez is one of the three or four best players in the game. It seemed possible Reyes could make that leap a few years ago. Less likely now. But that doesn’t mean he’s not still one of the 10 or 15 best players in the game.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 9, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions  

The way people talk about Reyes

it’s like he has all this talent and never uses any of it. Seriously, if he matched the expectations of everyone he’d be the best player in baseball. He’s had three straight 5+ WAR seasons, how much better can he really be?

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 9, 2009 3:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Seconded

The underperformance argument really strikes me as one of people too lazy to look at the stats themselves, instead depending on the New York Post to tell them how good Reyes is.

by Fanon on Nov 9, 2009 5:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

Let’s also remember to ask: How many genuinely good shortstops are there in baseball? Reyes can fall well short of some people’s expectations for him and still be a wildly valuable player.

by aap212 on Nov 9, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

+10

by the back pages of the Post and the News each of the last 2 septembers you’d think Reyes was Cesar Izturis or something.

by Rob Castellano on Nov 10, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Really necessary?

Maybe its just that I don’t do it, but I don’t see anyone trolling over to Phillies discussions and talking smack. No one’s launching ad hom attacks here but you. Can’t we be allowed to take some solace in the fact that there are a few things to get excited about on the farm? Or that there’s hope that the Mets can rebound from an injury plagued season and at least put an entertaining product on the field? Why does this offend you? If you disagree with what joe said, then debate the points he made, why is it necessary to go below the belt?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 8, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

07 was a massive choke job.

08 can hardly be considered a choke job when 90% of the year, the team that eventually won the division (Phillies) was in first place. In fact, it’s pretty amazing that the Mets even had the division lead at all that year, considering how badly they started the year.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Wilmer Flores won't start off 2010 at AA

though

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 8, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions  

you're right

somehow got that confused

by jibs on Nov 8, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Rubin´s bias

That some pretty promising prospects like Nieuwenhuis, Familia or Allen don´t make this list shows that Rubin himself was quite wrong about the supposedly “terrible” Mets system.

Unfortunately, he´s not strong enough to acknowledge that. Also, sort of weak to repeatedly say “I have no idea about other teams´ systems” in the chat but then calling the Mets ´ system one of the worst in Baseball over and over again this summer.

Fact is, the top 4 – however you might want to rank them – are certain top 100 prospects. One can also make a case for the next 4 – 5 on this list to be in the top 150 group overall and Niese to be a borderline top 100 type. Since there´s no consensus top 20 overall type in this group, it´s not a top system. But it´s certainly middle ground and trending more towards the upper half than lower half of all 30 major league teams.

Sure, there wasn´t much major league ready help for the injury depleted 2009 Mets from the farm. However, that was basically the result of the Santana trade, plus losing a bunch of early round picks over the last 5 years for signing F.Rodriguez, C.Beltran, P.Martinez, B.Wagner, M.Alou and others for the 2005-2008 runs.

Still, it´d be great if Adam Rubin were to be man enough to acknowledge that his claims this summer re: the state of the Mets system may have been a big overboard overall.

by Doob on Nov 7, 2009 2:52 AM EST reply actions  

Rubin is a fucking idiot

Mejia doesn’t throw a slider, he throws a 11-5 curveball that at times can be excellent and at times can be poor. How can a guy make a prospect list not knowing what the top prospect of the organization throws as a breaking pitch. Piss poor effort in my opinion and I feel I can make better top 10s that most of these BA or BA wannabes like Rubin.

by Bravesin07 on Nov 7, 2009 9:00 AM EST reply actions  

I agree with that statement!

I mean, I’ve read things like who’s a sleeper in the organization Allen or DeLaTorre (que?) and Rubin babbles on about Robert Carson. What was the question Rubin? Answer the GD question.

Why wasn’t Allen or Familia over Urbina. Well, Urbina got 1.2M and that’s a Top 10 prospect because they hadn’t given anyone that kind of money since Fernando and Familia—well a scout once saw him and said he shit on myself and Allen is also a righthander. WOW Adam, that shit made a whole lot of sense, you bumbling idiot.

We all know Rubin is horrible about his coverage of the Mets minors. He’s a story teller, not an evaluator. Don’t let him do the lists anymore, it’s ridiculous BA and I’m canceling my subscription because of it!

Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."

by LoveofTheGame on Nov 7, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I tend not to hate on Rubin as much as some

But the Bernazard paragraph, as I said above, was just kind of ridiculous. Like, c’mon man, take a step back.

by Fanon on Nov 7, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Bye

And don’t let the door hit you on the ass on the way out. Hell, I might call and extend my subscription another 2 years tomorrow just to spite you.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Nov 8, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

glad to see your own life is so fulfilling.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Familia

I believe Rubin said the scout who made the Familia comment had seen him multiple times and had come away unimpressed, so it may have been more than one bad outing. That said, an awful lot of his chat questions simply referred to scout quotes, which is typical but does indicate that Rubin may not have seen many of these guys himself and that he may not know what to think even if he had.

by blackoutyears on Nov 9, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Hardly atypical

Pretty much all the BA writers (and Sickels and KG and…) rely heavily on scouts’ quotes. There is no way they could actually see all these guys enough to form adequate opinions.

by aCone419 on Nov 9, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Anonymous scouts crack me up.

They give someone an easy, “reliable” source of information without ever having to do any work or needing to back up their comments with facts.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 9, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL

Takes one to know one.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Nov 8, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

HEY EVERYBODY!!

LOOK AT ME!!!! LOOK AT ME!!! I’M TROLLING

by JayWise on Nov 9, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

haha +1

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 9, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Urbina

I really have no idea yet where Urbina should rank, but he was rated the top pitching prospect in the international signing period, so it’s possible he really belongs that high. Supposedly they are projecting two potential plus pitches, but it’s closer to two average pitches right now. But he is very young.

by acerimusdux on Nov 7, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions  

According to Rubin the Mets aren't going to rush prospect through the minors anymore

Apparently it was Bernazard’s idea to push kids faster through the system.

by Bravesin07 on Nov 7, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

Hey

I already replied to your prior ridiculously vulgar rant so I’m adding on here instead. I think it’s hilarious that you’re so upset over a METS list. You’re a BRAVES fan. Why are you so worked up over the arrangement of chairs on an enemy list? I’m also 100% certain that when it comes to baseball that he knows about 10 times more than you do. It’s akin to Forrest Gump calling Steven Hawkings a fucking moron.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Nov 8, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

You do realize his only credentials are from journalism school, right?

Like, it’s not like he’s some sort of player development expert. He’s a beat writer.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

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