San Francisco Giants Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Nov 30, 2009 11:20 PM EST
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San Francisco Giants Top 20 Prospects for 2010
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players are available in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order now for February 2nd shipping!
1) Buster Posey, C, Grade A: No-brainer. All he needs is playing time.
2) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade A-: Almost went with B+, but strikeout rates aren't everything. More concerned about dropping velocity. May still go with B+ eventually.
3) Thomas Neal, OF, Grade B: Solid all-around hitter, saw him in Arizona Fall League and he convinced me bat is for real.
4) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B: I'm hesitant to give a grade this high to any high school pitcher without a pro track record, but I really like Wheeler.
5) Roger Kieschnick, OF, Grade B-: Love the power and he's not just a one-dimensional slugger, but the high strikeout rate and low walk rate is concerning. How will he transition to Double-A?
6) Tommy Joseph, C, Grade B-: Have to see where he fits defensively but scouting reports about the bat are very positive.
7) Dan Runzler, LHP, Grade B-: Very impressive relief arm, if he throws enough strikes.
8) Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Grade B-: Another impressive relief arm, if he throws enough strikes.
9) Jason Stoffel, RHP, Grade B-: Another impressive relief arm, could be a bargain as a fourth rounder.
10) Francisco Peguero, OF, Grade B-: Difficult to grade, speed and high batting average are positives, but walk rate is way too low. Borderline C+.
11) Rafael Rodriguez, OF, Grade C+: Held his own in rookie ball though power isn't there yet. Very very young, loads of potential but have to see how it pans out. Difficult to grade, you can make a case for B- as well as a straight C.
12) Jose Casilla, RHP, Grade C+: Another lively relief arm.
12) Nick Noonan, 2B, Grade C+: Numbers haven't lived up to scouting reports but still young. Giants hype him but I'm not sure at all that he will live up to it.
13) Aaron King, LHP, Grade C+: Live-armed lefty needs better command.
14) Henry Sosa, RHP, Grade C+: Can he stay healthy? Maybe a switch to relief would help.
15) Darren Ford, OF, Grade C+: Not convinced he'll hit at higher levels. Borderline Grade C.
16) Clayton Tanner, LHP, Grade C+: For some reason I like him a lot. Another borderline Grade C guy, need to see if game will work against better hitters.
17) Ehire Adrianza, SS, Grade C: Scouts love him. Great glove. I'm not convinced he'll hit, but I could be convinced to give him a Grade C+ and move him up the list. Anyone want to convince me?
18) Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Grade C: He showed outstanding plate discipline but nothing else. I think he still has a chance to be a good hitter.
19) Brandon Crawford, SS, Grade C: Excellent glove. I do not believe in his bat. Baseball America ranks Adrianza and Crawford much higher than I do.
20) Edwin Concepcion, RHP, Grade C: Interesting power arm at the lower levels with strikeouts/grounders combination.
OTHERS (all Grade C): Brandon Belt, 1B; Brock Bond, 2B; Jorge Buchardo, RHP, Craig Clark, LHP; Chris Dominguez, 3B; Matt Downs, INF-OF: Steve Edlefsen, RHP: Matt Graham, RHP; Julio Izturis, 2B; Mike McBryde, OF; Kyle Nicholson, RHP; Dan Otero, RHP; Joe Paterson, LHP: Brett Pill, 1B; Ryan Rohlinger, 3B: Ari Ronick, LHP; Hector Sanchez, C; Ben Snyder, LHP; Eric Surkamp, LHP; Ydwin Villegas, SS; Craig Westcott, RHP.
The Giants have one can't-miss prospect in Buster Posey, but after that things thin out. Bumgarner is something of an enigma for well-known reasons, and I keep going back and forth between A- and B+ for him. Neal looks very solid to me, while Wheeler is very promising but unproven professionally. The B- guys all have some impressive positives but enough uncertainty to preclude a higher grade at this point: Kieschnick's strikeouts, command for the pitchers, position and lack of experience for Joseph, Peguero's low walk rate. Same thing for the C+ guys only more so.
Baseball America's list which came out today ranks Adrianza 8th and Crawford 9th. This reflects the fact that the organization loves them, something that BA weights more heavily in their rankings than I do in mine. I like their gloves but have serious doubts about their bats, especially Crawford's. I've seen him play and I think he looks like a weak hitter. I could be persuaded to boost Adrianza's grade but I just don't believe in Crawford's bat and he's staying a C.
Overall this system has pitching depth, with a mixture of power and finesse arms. They could use more hitting depth beyond Posey and Neal. Joseph provides hope in that department if he is as polished a high school hitter as reports indicate.
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Cutting down the Ks is only one problem
He also has to take walks. And hit for power. And find a position.
I like that he was left off the top 20 That year in S-K was absolutely pitiful.
by chefasaurus on Nov 30, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
I'm torn on MadBum
There’s speculation that his velocity will return and he was simply overworked, but it wouldn’t be the first time a prospect has inexplicably lost his heater for good. If he can get it back up there, he’s easily one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the game, IMO. If he stays in the high 80s, he’s a 3rd starter.
Edlefsen and Pucetas
Edlefsen had a very impressive year, rivaling the year that Dan Runzler had. Given how high you are on many of the Giants’ relief prospects, what kept Edlefsen off this list.
Pucetas had an up and down year at Fresno and the peripherals did dip quite a bit. He may have suffered from the jump from A ball to AAA. Why is Pucetas not even a C in your eyes?
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Nov 30, 2009 11:34 PM EST reply actions
Going off what Conjunction said
Obviously, I’m protective of my boy. But I think Bumgarner proved last year that he can be an effective arm even after losing 5 MPH of heat. So if he’s good enough to hold his own at 19 in AA without heat—which, as it stands, should make him a B+—and yet has the potential to get that zip back—which would bring him back to an A—then I’d say there’s no doubt he’s an A-.
My son is Madison Bumgarner, the Spacebat of pitching prospects. My other son is a Porsche.
I would say from watching Mad Bum’s debut in San Jose and then later in the season with SF, his velocity drop was about 3 – 3.5 mph.
I'm way more concerned
With Bumgarner’s secondary stuff than his velocity.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
It's definitely the combination for me.
If MB’s fastball isn’t a high-plus anymore, his arsenal of pitches is embarrassing for a prospect people want to rank so highly.
Small sample, but according to Fan Graphs, Mad Bum’s slider and change up were plus pitches at the major league level, and his fastball was a minus. I know at least one of the homers he yielded came on the fastball, and I suspect both did.
Sure as hell didn't look like plus pitches to me
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Definitely should drop Bumgarner to B+
Too many question marks came up this year.
by alskor on Dec 1, 2009 12:11 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Seriously, Hanson didn't even get an A- from John last year
I argued the point to death at the time, but that’s how things ended up. Not sure how you can compare Hanson at this point last year and MadBum now and decide that Bumgarner is better. Hanson was coming off the most dominant AFL ever for a pitcher, had been nearly unhittable after adding back his slider, had two breaking pitches that ranked at worst as plus pitches, and he had just as much, if not more, velocity on his fastball.
by nixa37 on Dec 1, 2009 7:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I thought he ultimately changed the grade?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
I must have mixed it up with something else
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 1, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Hanson was graded as a B+ when the AFL had just begun.
Considering how his stock jumped afterward, being at B+ beforehand was hardly crazy.
John had a chance to change the grade after the AFL
But he didn’t. As DeJay mentioned Anderson and Cahill got bumped up to A- grades right before the book was published, well after Hanson’s dominating AFL, but John decided against bumping up Hanson’s grade for whatever reason (though I do believe that Hanson was the highest ranked B+ pitcher).
+1
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Results
Until players start to actually hit against him, anything less than an A- would be hard to support. Sure, he only pitched 10 innings in the majors, but his BAA was .221. He had a shaky first outing, but what else do you expect from a 20 year old? He has OWNED every level he’s played in while being way below league average age. Until that changes, can we start giving this kid some credit? 6 months ago he was drawing Tim Lincecum comparisons. His fastball loses a tick on the radar gun and now he’s Brien Taylor.
Pat Venditte?
Give me a break. You may be soured on Bumgarner, but for a while he was easily one of the top five pitching prospects in the minors. He earned his way to the majors as a teenager in his second year of pro ball. Even if his stock has dropped considerably in your book, comparing giving him an A- to giving Venditte an A- is ridiculous hyperbole. You’re better than that.
It was hyperbole.
I was not comparing Bumgarner as a prospect to Venditte. My point was, facetiously, to point out that results/production alone are not enough to make a guy an A- grade. I used Venditte as an extreme example of someone with great numbers in the minors who is clearly not a top prospect despite that.
Obviously, Bumgarner is ten times the prospect Venditte is – I was saying that stuff and scouting matters too, and in Bumgarner’s case I think the stuff, velocity and scouting don’t merit an A-, but rather should make him a B+.
+1
B+
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I hate to bring this up, but John gave Tim Lincecum only an A- three years ago. He should have gone with his first instinct, which was a straight A.
As great as Tim has been (likely the best starting pitcher over his three seasons), there were still doubts about Tim’s size, motion and health three years ago — and he had yet to throw a single pitch above HIgh A ball.
But Will Carroll had an accurate bead on Tim that winter, naming him as his choice for his franchise pitcher for the next 10 years. Sill, that was going out on a limb for a pitcher who hadn’t played above Class A. Will was no doubt relying on his expertise in pitching mechanics.
Aside from a few well-informed Giants fans and Dick Tidrow of the Giants themselves, I don’t know of anyone who rated Tim that high that winter.
John had his chance. :) He liked Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey better, and since they were two years younger, it was clear to see why. But each of them had already lost time to arm injury, which hadn’t been close to a problem with Lincecum. And of course both have had arm trouble since, while Tim’s slight problem of last season was from his back and is said to have come from his curling up on a cross-country flight.
I will say this: If Tim is to have injury problems, his core seems the likely spot. But he has been doing flexibility and strengthening exercises for his core over most of his life. In addition, he seems to have exceptional natural flexibility.
Mad Bum certainly doesn’t have the electric stuff Lincecum has. But he does seem to be at least equally hard to pick up. And he has thrown only three dozen or so innings since reaching the age of 20.
The guy won’t be able to vote for eight more months, for crying out loud. At Mad Bum’s age, Tim was just getting ready for his sophomore season at the University of Washington, a season in which he didn’t progress much. Although Tim was already very good, he really began putting things together the following summer in the Cape Cod League.
At that point the Indians, who had drafted Tim in the 42nd round because he had made it know his bonus demand was a million dollars, should have picked up on things. And what were his hometown Mariners THINKING when they drafted Brandon Morrow instead of Tim the following June?
The Bay Area (Cal) pitcher went to the Emerald City, and the guy who grew up 10 miles from the Seattle Airport went to the Bay Area. Two general manager jobs may have turned on those events.
Great post on Tim Lincecum and his history
but what does it have to do with MadBum and this line of debate? If anything, the fact that Lincecum “only” received an A- shows why MadBum doesn’t deserve such a lofty grade.
And stop treating pitchers as if they progress linearly. The fact that MadBum is getting better results than Lincecum was at the same age is meaningless. Lincecum, unlike most prospects, improved by leaps and bounds in his early 20’s. The fact that he was able to make adjustments and add new pitches has absolutely no bearing on MadBum.
Sorry to get off track, but I was replying to a post that first mentioned comparing Lincecum to Bumgarner.
My point that Lincecum received only an A- from John had more to do with his judgment of Lincecum than of Bumgarner. To some degree I was trying to point out that while I think John is very good, like even the best, he is fallible.
I’m wondering where it was that I said that pitchers progress linearly. I am quite aware that Tim had two or three quantum leaps in his career.
That Mad Bum got better results than Lincecum at the same age isn’t meaningless (and how dare you say it is? :). It shows that if he progresses at the same rate Tim did, he will actually be better.
All other things being equal, would you rather have a young pitcher who was BETTER than Tim at the same age or worse?
I wasn’t suggesting that Mad Bum would be better than Tim. What I WAS suggesting is that for a guy who turned 20 just four months ago, he’s darn good.
Perhaps one difference here is that you seem to be debating, while I’m merely discussing. One thing a person is perfectly capable of doing if he doesn’t care for what is posted somewhere is stop reading.
Personally I try to read all I can, as it is one of the best ways for me to expand my knowledge. But if something doesn’t interest me, I quickly move on to something else.
He can't vote for what kind of pitcher he and his buddies are going to split.
Put me down for Mac & Jack’s.
Bumgarner...
I’m stunned to see him get an A-. Dropping velocity, mediocre secondary pitches…how is he an A- again?
I like your list, one question though
You gave Clayton Tanner a B- last year; what has he done this year to move down? He repeated A+, but he was still age-appropriate for the level at 21 and he improved his numbers across the board. I like your rating of Adrianza, though. I get that he’s young, but he hit pretty terribly and all of the errors he made (I know that’s a crappy stat) seem to contradict the reports of his slick fielding.
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I'll make the case for Adrianza
A plus defensive shortstop. Adrianza held his own with the bat as a 19-year-old in the SALLY league. Furthermore, he showed a very encouraging 9% walk rate and a reasonable K% of 17. At 6’1", 155 there is projection remaining in the frame, so you can dream a little on the bat. I think a premium defender at such an important positions (whom the organization raves about) would be enough to rate as a C+, but I think the promise in the bat makes it a no-brainer.
I think Crawford should be a C+ too. Guys who can pick it at short make it to the bigs. Major league rosters are littered with utility infielders who can’t hit but stick on rosters for their glove and versatility (ex- Robert Andino, John MacDonald, Alex Cora, Erick Bruntlett, Andres Blanco). I think the low floor on Crawford should make him a C+ as well.
Crawford
I believe you meant high floor there.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
I think John rated both Adrianza and Crawford much lower than he should have. Hopefully for Giants fans though, that’s because their other prospects are even better ones.
I was a little surprised both weren’t in the top 10. And I’m not as high on Crawford in particular as most are.
Adrianza has no pop, but he does have plate discipline, which is rare in a Latin shortstop.
If Adrianza is truly a Latin Shortstop
He may be the first Latin baseball player, period!
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Ben Snyder
I am curious to hear any views on Ben Snyder. I noticed his numbers while combing through the minor leagues. I have not read anything definitive on the kid, but his numbers look good at AA. Curious to hear some opinions on someone who has seen him.
Snyder might make a nice LOOGY in the future, but a team would likely need to hide him in a very minor role in the majors in 2010. Might work out a year or two later in that role for the Giants, but he’s a fly ball pitcher.
He has been very successful against lefty hitters to date. If he shows well in AAA next season one would think he would earn a chance.
Age would seem to make him less of a prospect than Clayton Tanner. Perhaps a little above midway between Tanner and Craig Clark.
Sosa
he had a big drop in strikeouts this season and missed a bunch of time with injuries…again. Is the stuff even still there? He turned 24 in late July and still only pitched 72 innings in AA. Pitching in Dodd really helped his ERA, but not sure he’s that much of a prospect anymore. I suppose he could still be considered a C range prospect, but probably not a C+. That probably sounds like nit-picking, but I just do see what there is to like anymore about this guy.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 1, 2009 2:10 AM EST reply actions
The thoughts on Chris Dominguez seem to put him outside of the top 20.
I know he has serious K issues. I didn’t know he was unsure of a position though. What else do I need to know based on what other people have seen?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
He has two plus tools
His power and his arm. I was hoping pre-draft that he’d have enough range to stay at third, but the fact that he’s being left out of top 20s is making that seem unlikely.
+1
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 1, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Dominguez showed nice power, but little contact ability or pitch discrimination. He also dropped off a fair amount after being promoted from the Rookie League to Short Season Salem-Keizer, neither of which is advanced for a college player.
That was to be expected
It would have been a surprise if he didn’t have contact issues. With Dominguez you’re betting on his power and hoping that he has enough range to stay at third.
If he does still have a chance to stay at third, I like him as a high upside/high risk prospect
It is my understanding that K/BB ratio can be as important or even more important in evaluating a hitter than his batting average. If a guy has more power, I can live with a worse K/BB ratio — although I expect it to be bad more from lots of strikeouts than from few walks.
In Dominguez’s case, he both strikes out too much and walks far too little. I don’t view that as a great combination and in fact, with the exception of John Bowker and Thomas Neal, it is an issue for most Giants power prospects, of which they have few to begin with.
I’m certainly not giving up on Dominguez, but last season he didn’t live up to my hopes for him.
As a freshman and sophomore, Chris had horrible K/BB ratios, but dramatically improved them in his junior and senior seasons. Perhaps he will make similar improvements as he gets more professional experience.
If not, I suspect he will continue to disappoint me.
Oh I agree
A 66/12 K/BB is unacceptable; it just wasn’t much of a surprise. I don’t think it drastically affects his prospect status as we already knew that was going to be a big issue. He has big time power and at third base, he has a high upside. Reaching that upside will be very dependent on his ability to make contact.
Connecticut Defenders
Neal, Pill, and Bond had good years in a pitcher’s park/league. What do they have to do to get more recognition?
And Bond’s middle name is Lee. He should get into the top 20 on that alone.
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
Jason Stoffel, 2009 (Rookie + A-): 24IP, 1-0, 0.75 ERA, 5 S V, 25K. The heir apparent to B-Weez.
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hehe… his name is Brock Lee!
BTW, Neal was in San Jose
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 1, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps he still meant that Neal had a good year in a pitcher’s park. Muni has been called one of the worst parks to hit in, especially to see the ball.
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That is what I have heard. It has a crazy back drop.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 1, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
MiLB's Jon Mayo reported it
A couple of years ago. He interviewed Bowker about it and Bowker mentioned that bad back drop.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"It's a process" - Brian Sabean
"Attempting [to match Maddux and Johnson's 4 straight Cy's] just comes back to being a student of the game and never settling. A lot of guys can just sit on things they did. I could have easily sat on things I did last year and bounce off it. I just wanted to become better." - Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 3, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
I played a tournament there a couple years ago, I don’t remember it bothering me at all. It doesn’t seem like it would be an issue, if you see the wall they have back there.
by Brendan Scolari on Dec 11, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions
Mad Bum’s velocity lost could be:
. On order from the Giants in an attempt not to over-extend his arm. I have heard rumors that was the case. On the other hand, he pitched considerably fewer innings last season (at least before his callup) than in 2008. Probably was throwing more pitches per inning though. Also, he wasn’t able to bring back much of the velocity when he was called up to the show.
. Due to arm fatigue. Note the above comments.
. Possible arm soreness or worse?
In his San Jose debut he threw 91-93, topping out at 94. I would have liked to see him throw more secondary pitches, which looked surprisingly good in the bullpen, but he was able to dominate with his fastball — indicating it must be hard to pick up and/or had tough movement.
I have read that scouts say he lost his velocity gradually as the season went on, which would seem contra to his having been told to take a little off. But I have a fairly decent source (although only one, even though he was said to have been with a handful of Giants sources as recently as last week) who says that was the case.
We should learn a lot in 2009. I suspect the velocity issue will make the difference between a good/very good pitcher and a star/superstar. Remember, too, that Mad Bum today turned 20 years, four months. Bumgarner today is less than a month older than was Rick Porcello when Rick made his major league debut.
Rick in High A was essentially half a year younger than Madison in AA — and their results were similar. Speeds too IIRC. If anything, Mad Bum outpitched Porcello, who is said to have been somewhat under wraps.
It is possible Rick will take a baby step backward in 2010. If Mad Bum regains his velocity, it is possible he could equal or even surpass Rick as a prospect a year from now.
Wouldn’t bet my house on it, but the possibility certainly exists. Velocity is obviously important, as is development of seconary pitches and the same ability Porcello showed last season to maintain his low walk rate in the major leagues. The final key is likely whether Mad Bum can avoid the long ball, which for all his success, Rick wasn’t able to accomplish to any great degree last season, even though Rick is more of a ground ball pitcher than Bumgarner.
Even before the velocity loss, Bumgarner didn’t have blazing velocity. But he was fast, and since he seems to be hard to pick up, it appeared his effective speed was very high.
Foggy memory but I recall someone (Krukow?) discussing this issue on the radio and whoever it was said that it is common for young players in their second year to have a dead arm, as they adjust to the demands of professional baseball. He said he wasn’t worried, that his velocity should return next season.
On top of that, Bumgarner acknowledged the drop in velocity but noted that he felt physically fine. And unlike Foppert, was able to pitch the whole season effectively and injury free.
So I’m not as worried about Bumgarner. I think he has shown that he can pitch effective enough in the majors, now the major question is whether as a top pitcher or middle rotation pitcher.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"It's a process" - Brian Sabean
"Attempting [to match Maddux and Johnson's 4 straight Cy's] just comes back to being a student of the game and never settling. A lot of guys can just sit on things they did. I could have easily sat on things I did last year and bounce off it. I just wanted to become better." - Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 3, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
more like top 21
I guess there was a tie at 12
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by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 1, 2009 7:38 PM EST reply actions
Angel Villalona
So there is no mention of Villalona? Obviously he has legal troubles at this point, but does no mention mean it is a concensus that he will not be returning back to baseball?
Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
- PT
He wouldn't be much of a prospect even if he wasn't on trial for murder
Really, can anyone even justify anything higher than a C+?
Ive never like Villalona
but Im sure an argument can be made, to be fair. He has some nice tools. It was definitely a down year… but I know KG still believed in him recently, fwiw. Its a tough one because its hard to separate him from the alleged criminal now…
I just don't see it
He may have raw power, but his plate discipline actually got worse this year. He had 7 unintentional walks in 310 PAs. He had more HBPs than unintentional walks. You have to be very liberal with your grades to give him anything higher than a C+
Potential, it was always Potential
He was one of the league leading HR hitters in 2008 even though he was 5-7 years younger than most of the other players. And despite that, he was also above average in OPS.
And he appears to have been playing with an injury in 2009 even before he DLed, his monthly numbers crumbled suddenly just before his DL.
Obviously, his legal issues probably clouds the situation, but if he is here in spring training, he should still be a top prospect for the team, though towards the back end of the Top 10.
The deceased’s family is dropping the matter, and presuming they convince the witnesses to do likewise, then there will no longer be cooperative witnesses anymore, and still no gun that I’m aware of. Whether guilty or not, it looks like he will get off.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"It's a process" - Brian Sabean
"Attempting [to match Maddux and Johnson's 4 straight Cy's] just comes back to being a student of the game and never settling. A lot of guys can just sit on things they did. I could have easily sat on things I did last year and bounce off it. I just wanted to become better." - Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 3, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
You’re wrong about the injury, as it wasn’t a chronic issue, but just a traumatic injury (torn a muscle running). His numbers crumbled because his high BABIP turned into a low BABIP in June — in other words he went from being hit lucky to hit unlucky. But underlying even the decent numbers in April and May were always wretched plate discipline and pretty lousy contact numbers. In other words, the fall was completely predictable completely aside from the injury (in fact the injury might just have prevented further collapse as the season went on).
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+1
The rumour is that the charges may be dropped, so if he is gets his visa back he is definitely worthy of a spot on this list.
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 1, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Far be it from me to rely upon the competence of American immigration officials
but wouldn’t reports of, you know, paying off people to acquit you, draw some interest/investigation and perhaps result in a slight reduction in the odds of being readmitted to the US?
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Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
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Posey vs. Wieters
Can somebody please provide some insight into how Posey compares to Wieters? Is there no comparison, or does Posey at least even come close to Wieters talent-wise?
What I’ve read is that Weiters is a much better hitter, but Posey is much better suited for the catching position and not only that, can play well defensively there too eventually. But that was before Weiters reached the majors, haven’t read much on how he did there.
The consensus I saw before was that 1B was his eventual position, whereas Posey could be a long-term All-Star catcher, good both offensively and defensively.
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Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"It's a process" - Brian Sabean
"Attempting [to match Maddux and Johnson's 4 straight Cy's] just comes back to being a student of the game and never settling. A lot of guys can just sit on things they did. I could have easily sat on things I did last year and bounce off it. I just wanted to become better." - Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 3, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I know more about Posey than about Weiters, but Matt seems to have an almost Mauer-like aura, while Posey’s ability to dominate at catcher will likely depend on his power development.
If Buster’s power isn’t much above the Bengie Molina range, he can still be a high-average, defensively strong catcher. If the power comes, he could be very special.
But I haven’t seen anyone rank Buster above Matt as a catching prospect. That doesn’t mean that Buster won’t turn out to be the better of the two, of course, but I suspect each could be among the very top catchers in his respective league and perhaps even more.
That's basically what I've seen
I have not seen anyone say that Posey can hit for above 20 HR power, but he’s done pretty well in the minors so far to give me hope that maybe he’ll develop it in spite of whatever the scouts see lacking to not project that.
And yes, Weiters has been ranked higher than Posey whenever I saw a comparison. Weiters power could be special. Posey, however, is good all around.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"It's a process" - Brian Sabean
"Attempting [to match Maddux and Johnson's 4 straight Cy's] just comes back to being a student of the game and never settling. A lot of guys can just sit on things they did. I could have easily sat on things I did last year and bounce off it. I just wanted to become better." - Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 3, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I’m merely being overly optimistic, but I think Posey will become more than a 20-homer guy.
He hit only seven homers in his first two college seasons combined, but then exploded to 26 as a junior. This past season he hit 18 homers in only 439 at bats.
Buster hits to all fields, so perhaps a lack of pulling the ball will hurt him in AT&T Park in San Francisco. But I suspect he will pull the ball often enough to hit quite a few out — especially has he hits (no pun) his prime.
Buster is a ground ball hitter, so perhaps he won’t hit for much power unless he adds lift to his swing. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him become at least a 20-25 homer guy — and perhaps more.
Posey
I was listening to Maddog radio last month and Maddog mentioned he had talked to Jon Miller about Posey. Maddog is a big Giants fan. Miller told him that he (Miller) talked to the scout who signed Weiters about Posey. The scout said once he saw Posey, he is twice the player Weiters is.
He did not name the scout on the radio…
raygu
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I told him I was an exiled Nigerian leader and needed money from him. It paid for this computer.
Posey
I’m very excited to see Buster Posey play! – Dawn Callahan Kettlewell
by Dawn Callahan Kettlewell on Dec 7, 2009 3:34 AM EST reply actions
A final note on Villalona
Per Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News
Angel Villalona is on MLB’s restricted list while he awaits murder trial in the Dominican. Sabean was very brief on the former top prospect: "He’s in limbo. I’ve got no opinion."
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Kevin Frandsen, come back!
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