Last year's rookies, top community prospects for future performance #18
by Dalman on Nov 30, 2009 1:19 AM EST
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Well, I guess you have made it to the big time when accusations start to fly that your polls are being stuffed. I'm honored, I suppose, but really I just want to make it through to 25 with the controversey limited to who are the best players. After a three way runoff, Cahill and Coghlan were within 1% of each other, so we are calling #16 and #17 a tie. While Blanks also performed credibly in the run-off poll, let's allow the 40% of the community that voted for Cahill or Coghlan in round 16 to weigh in here before deciding who is #18. Anyway, this is where we are so far:
1. Matt Wieters, C Baltimore
2. Tommy Hanson, P Atlanta
3. Andrew McCutchen, of Pittsburgh
4. Brett Anderson P Oakland
5 Gordon Beckham, 3b CHW
6. Rick Porcello, P Detroit.
7.Elvis Andrus, SS Texas
8. Colby Rasmus, of St. Louis
9. David Price, P Tampa Bay
10. Travis Sinder, of Toronto
11. Dexter Fowler, of Colorado
12. Chris Tillman, p Baltimore
13t. Matt Latos, p San Diego
13t Derek Holland, p Texas
15. Cameron Maybin, of Florida
16t Chris Coghlan, of Florida
16t Trevor Cahill, P Oaklan
Jeff Neimann, Luis Valbuena, Drew Stubbs, Gerardo Parra, and Julio Borbon all drew less than 5% last round and are temporarily dropped from the poll. All will return in a later poll, although begining with #20, players who have particularly low support in a round, will not be returned to any subsequent poll, assuming we cut this at #25, which I think is just about right.
With only 4 players returning from last round's poll, Mat Gamel, Randy Wells and Everth Cabrera are returned for another chance, and Tommy Hunter, Brad Bergesen and Casey McGehee all get their first chances this round.
temporarily dropped from the poll (percentage and round in parens) J.A. Happ 1% (12), Daniel Bard 2% (13), Marc Rzepcynski 2% (15), Ricky Romero 3% (15), Jeff Neimann 2% (16), Luis Valbuena 0% (16), Drew Stubbs 4% (16), Gerardo Parra 0% (16), Julio Borbon 1% (16)
Any suggestions about who to add (is it Garret Jones time yet?) please post them below.
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I went with Reimold
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 30, 2009 12:46 PM EST reply actions
haha, pretty sure it just got stuffed,
or laporta just got a bunch of votes when nobody else received really any
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
what might be cooler would be
if we changed it to a system like the community prospect lists, and you can vote 1-3, with 1st place meanign 5 points, 2nd meaning 3, and 3rd means 1. ya know?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
sounds good but...
wouldn’t that require putting the votes in comments and manually tabulating them? i know that something was done along those lines this fall for a community prospect list where everyone sent in their own excel format top 50, but I imagine that we will do the main community list this late winter pretty much the same way as I am doing this. Unless I am missing something there isn’t any way to support first, second and third place votes through an automated poll.
David Hernandez
Needs a shot if Bergesen is getting one. Bergesen had a much better year, but I expect a lot from Hernandez in the future
Yeah... prefer Hernandez
but neither is anything special… or you know… even league average. I really dont see much to like about Bergesen. Pretty run of the mill.
He had success as a rookie though
I know he wont pitch to a 3.43 era next season, how much worse do you think he will be? I think he can be at 4.2-4.4. He was improving in everyone of his starts befre he got hurt
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 30, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see that in Bergesen
I see a little below league average as a best case. Looks more like a 4.5-5.0 kind of guy to me.
I know a lot of O’s fans seem to like him… what’s to like? The stuff, control, etc… is nothing special. Very run of the mill. He struck out 65 guys in 123 IP. That’s bad. That’s 4.74 K/9. He was also pretty hittable. The only thing he did that was remotely impressive was have a good GB rate, and with his other rates it really isnt that impressive. He had a very lucky ERA due to SSS, defense and luck. A few extra balls get caught by the O’s excellent defenders and the kid looks to fans like he’s managing the games well. He’s not. He’s plenty hittable and doesnt miss bats.
I would actually vote every other guy on this list above ahead of Bergesen. He’s just a filler arm for me. If he gets lucky he might stick around as a #4/5 starter/swingman, but more likely a middle reliever. He’s just not very good. I would wager the O’s see Bergesen as a poor man’s Guthrie (yes, that’s meant to be very negative). Both guys are just holding spots for the better young arms coming down the line. I can’t imagine the O’s FO views Bergesen as some sort of asset.
You're overstating the case by a lot
Bergesen’s peripherals don’t support a 3.43 ERA, but they do support a 23 year old who was an above average major league starting pitcher in his rookie year (109 tRA+, 4.10 FIP, 4.53 xFIP).
Yes his K-rate was awful, but he compensates with excellent control and a lot of groundballs. His minor league record suggests he has room to improve all of his ratios, but even if his ratios stay exactly the same, he’s better than your worst case.
There is statistical hope, yes
but his stuff isnt that good, either, and I’ll always bet against the guys who need perfect control and lots of grounders to succeed. I dont see the upside here. I do see lots of downside.
I overcame my A's homer-ness and went with Reimold.
I think he’ll improve on his defense, and right now he’s a much better hitter than LaPorta.
Cahill’s way too high though. If there’s gonna be another Oakland guy that high, I’d have Bailey over him.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
what's with Laporta's low babip?
He’s barely over .300 for his minor league run. Contact rate a double edged sword? I think I like Blanks slightly more.
by AgitationStation on Nov 30, 2009 10:29 PM EST reply actions
Just SSS.
I really don’t get the buzz about Blanks. Im voting a whole lot of guys still before Blanks.
over 1200 professional plate appearances
the sample really isn’t that small. He can still maintain a batting average because he strikes out so infrequently, but he does have a babip issue.
by AgitationStation on Nov 30, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure what the concern is, though
His minor league AVG was .291… what exactly bothers you about him…?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=laport001mat
Do you have doubts on him as a hitter? Or just that, positional adjustment included, there are guys who are more valuable?
I can understand the latter position, but I wouldn’t be particularly worried about him on the first point. He had some contact issues as a rookie, but he wasn’t a big strikeout guy in the minors, and he’s only really starting to learn to use his raw power.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 30, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Blanks
I don’t think he’ll be able to play anywhere but first base and even then, I’m not sure how good he’ll actually be defensively. And at first base, I’m not all that confident that his bat will be above average for the position. I give LaPorta the edge offensively and defensively.
I’d also vote for Drew Stubbs, Ricky Romero and Marc Rzep before Blanks. I think he belongs somewhere in the group of guys (Bard, Bailey, Reimold, Parra and Gamel) after those three.
This is exactly what I would have said, pretty much word for word
I don’t think he’ll be able to play anywhere but first base and even then, I’m not sure how good he’ll actually be defensively. And at first base, I’m not all that confident that his bat will be above average for the position. I give LaPorta the edge offensively and defensively.
Blanks is a big stiff with a good bat… but Im not at all confident that it will be anything better than “acceptable” at 1B.
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