Community Prospect List - Reds
by cwhitman412 on Nov 3, 2009 4:55 PM EST
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PrintUp to the Reds. Another pretty low system, with even more quality traded to Toronto. There really aren't many players in this system with much upside as far as I know. Maybe I'll learn otherwise.130 AB, 50 IP
2. Leake
3. Brad Boxberger (Very Very high on him)
4. Todd Frazier
Other names that should be considered for the list are Cozart, Heisey, Sulbaran, Yorman Rodriguez, and Wood.
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Not as bad as Toronto IMO, but still below average
1. Alonso
2. Leake
3. Frazier
4. Boxberger
5. Rodriguez
6. Francisco
7. Heisey
8. Sulbaran
9. Neftali Soto
10. Cozart
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Better system than you think
1. Yonder Alonso
2. Todd Frazier
3. Mike Leake
4. Yorman Rodriguez
5. Juan Francisco
6. Chris Heisey
7. Brad Boxberger
8. Travis Wood
9. Zack Cozart
10. Billy Hamilton
+1
they’re nowhere near bottom 5
however they might not crack the top 20, but, If they do that is a very good thing
If You’re team has a top 20 farm system out of the 30 teams Today that is generally a good thing
the only way I wouldn’t be happy or content with my teams farm system was if it was bottom 5
(i.e. Toronto, Arizona ect.)
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 3, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
um
When two thirds of the other teams in baseball have a better farm system than you, that is NOT a good thing. Not that our methods of assessing farm system quality are necessarily that great.
mr kupe
lets see you come up with a bottom 5 systems please
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 3, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
just saying
I was totally going off of what you said. And you said “they might not crack the top 20”.
But anyways. I’ll go ahead and answer your question. The worst five obviously include Toronto and Arizona, I really don’t see a point in arguing against those. For the other three . . .the White Sox, Houston, and Detroit.
I'd put the Cardinals in there
at the bottom five …
but that’s me …
are the white sox that bad? I’d have to refersh my mind … that said … definitely near the bottom five
Cardinals certainly up (or down) there as well
Detroit is terrible with only Jacob Turner and Casey Crosby standing out at all, although Andy Oliver has a shot to impress in time.
Houston has Jason Castro, Jordan Lyles, and possible helium guy Jiovanni Mier, and a bunch of replacement parts.
The White Sox have . . .Jake Peavy, who doesn’t count for their minor league system but did cost them some of their depth. While I’m a White Sox fan at heart, I’ll readily admit that even their intriguing guys have significant questions.
I think St. Louis has some underrated players, with better depth and upside throughout the system than you might initially expect. It’s still obviously not a good system and would rate in the bottom 7-8 systems, but it’s not truly wretched IMO.
What about Sizemore, Avila, Streiby?
Plus there’s a lot of reliever depth in Detroit… it may not be a great system, but it’s not bottom 5.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Nov 4, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Tigers
Avila would probably break a top 100, but the other two would not.
The system is pretty bad, I don’t think there’s any getting around that. Their three best prospects are a talented teenager who hasn’t pitched in pro ball yet, a TJ survivor who has gotten as far as the Midwest League, and Avila, a solid guy with fluky major league performance this year. The rest of the system consists of exceptionally risky position players and a bunch of guys who scream middle reliever at best, with the possible exceptions of Sizemore and Oliver. Even thinking about invoking “reliever depth” as a strength of a system is a definite red flag . . .not that there aren’t valuable relief prospects, but as has been shown, a bullpen really CAN be built out of spare parts rather than a dedicated plan. The depth of the system is atrocious, and there are plenty of systems that can match and most likely out-do it in terms of upside as well.
Of course, things can certainly change dramatically in the course of a year.
agreed.
toronto, arizona, st. louis, and i would probably the LAA up there…
then its maybe white sox… maybe SD…. maybe LAD
SD?
Seriously? They’re criminally underrated. Tate, Darnell, Decker, Castro are all easy top 100 guys, then Poreda and Carter are two power pitchers from the Peavy deal. Then the OBP kings Sogard and Forsythe, 2009 draftees Sampson and Williams, and young high upside Latin guys Rincon, Portillo, and Galvez. That’s a pretty damn good system right there.
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I posted this in a different thread a while back, but
1. Cleveland Indians… Santana, House, Alexander Perez
2. Oakland Athletics… Carter, Desme, Donaldson
3. Tampa Bay Rays… Jennings, Brignac, McGee
4. Pittsburgh Pirates … Alvarez,Owens/ Locke, Hernandez
5. Texas Rangers … Feliz, Scheppers, K. Gomez/ Beavan
6. Atlanta Braves … Heyward, Delgado, Jones
7. Kansas City Royals … Montgomery, Duffy, Parraz
8. San Diego Padres … Decker, Forsythe, Hefner
9. Florida Marlins … Stanton, Hand, Skipworth/ Cousins
10. New York Mets … Niese, Flores, Havens
11. Baltimore Orioles … Matusz, Erbe, Hoes
12. Boston Red Sox … Kelly, Kalish, Fuentes
13. New York Yankees … Montero, Vizcayno, Heathcott
14. Colorado Rockies … Fredierich or Chacin, EY JR/ Rosario,
15. San Francisco Giants … Posey, Kiechnick, Noonan
16. Minnesota Twins … Hicks, Valencia, Tosoni
17. Los Angelos Dodgers … Withrow, Martin, DeJesus
18. Chicago Cubs … Castro or Vitters , H-J Lee, ?Colvin?
19. Milwaukee Brewers …Lawrie, Gindl, Cain/ Jeffress
20. Cincinnati Reds … Alonso, Heisey, Neftali Soto
21. Philadelphia Phillies …Brown or Drabek or Taylor, May/ Savery, Gose
22. Seattle Mariners … Ackley, Aumont, Franklin
23. Wahington Nationals … Strasburg, Marrero, Hood
24. Detroit Tigers … Crosby, Sizemore, Iorg
25. Houston Astros … Lyles, Bogusevic, Disher(higher?)
26. Los Angelos Angels of Anaheim … Recklilng, Walden, Trumbo
27. Chicago White Sox … Hudson, Morel/Danks, Shelby
28. Arizona D’ Backs … Parker, Eichorn, Harden
29. St. Louis Cardinals … Lynn/Miller, Garcia, Reifer
30. Toronto Blue Jays … Stewart, Emaus/ Jackson, ?
that is roughly the order I’d go with with prospectively ranking the teams’ systems
1st, 5th and 10 prospects for each team are listed, and its not perfect….
I’m probably most harsh on the Marlins, Mariners and Angels here and too easy on the Pirates and maybe the Bo Sox…
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 5, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
yr right
i always forget Castro is there. and you can see he’s top 60 on my list.
replace with Houston. because outside of Lyles, I’m really not impressed.
I think CHW are decent with a top three of Flowers, Hudson, and Mitchell.
don’t think I would have SD top 10 though liek Steve does.
probably around 15th
Lots of depth
They only have a few ‘uber upside’ guys, but the depth they have is pretty darn good. In my most recent top 40 list for the Reds I left off 3 relievers who had season ERA’s under 2.00. I had a guy outside of the Top 15 (Sulbaran) that some have well inside the top 10 here. There is a gap between the low minors and the high minors right now, in that high A/AA area, but the AAA team is going to be absolutely stacked next year. I am going to just run down a proposed lineup/rotation with notes on some of the lesser known guys.
1. Chris Heisey – CF
2. Zack Cozart – SS (above average defender, good discipline, developing pop)
3. Yonder Alonso – 1B
4. Todd Frazier – 2B
5. Juan Francisco – LF
6. Chris Valaika – 3B
7. Danny Dorn – RF
8. Craig Tatum – C
Of that lineup, only Craig Tatum isn’t a legit prospect. That is at the AAA level. The rotation also looks to be pretty solid.
1. Travis Wood
2. Matt Maloney – likely a #4 pitcher, but has excellent control, is a lefty and has always performed well.
3. Matt Klinker – 91-93 MPH fastball, tops out around 94. Very good curveball. Posted very good numbers this year while going from A+ to AAA.
4. Sam Lecure – 89-91 MPH fastball, solid slider, solid change up, good strikeout rate, solid control. Stuff profiles much like Joe Blanton.
5. Several candidates.
Again though, 1-4 are legit major league prospects (some better than others) and the guys in that bullpen are all solid as well (Del Rosario, Ondrusek, Smit, Viola) who are major league prospects.
I think they are around 15th in terms of the farm systems. They have top 100 guys (or at least those who will get consideration) (Alonso/Leake/Frazier/Wood/Heisey), high upside guys (Yorman Rodriguez, Billy Hamilton, Juan Francisco, Juan Duran) and tons of depth throughout the system. The depth they have simply can’t be ignored.
Reds
Top 5
1. 1B Yonder Alonso
2. SP Mike Leake
3. Utl. Todd Frazier
4. OF Yorman Rodriguez
5. OF Chirs Heisey
H.M. Neftali Soto, Juan Francisco, Bradley Boxberger
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 3, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions
I Almost
Put Boxberger over Leake.
Just saying.
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Why in the world would you do that?
Boxberger (whom I do like) is a solid prospect with a good variety of pitches, but he was a supplemental pick rather than a true first rounder for good reasons. His command is iffy and his stuff falls off in later innings . . .he might have setup potential out of the pen, but as a starter I don’t see how he really projects as more than a No. 3, albeit with the potential to be better if he fixes his problems and continues to make progress in other ways.
Maybe you can argue that he’s a more interesting guy than some of the guys taken at the end of the first round, but better than a guy who was a consensus top 12 or so guy in the draft? You must REALLY not have much faith in Mike Leake.
Leake/Boxberger
I honestly believe that Boxberger has more upside than Leake does. His issues that you mentioned are what led to him being a supplemental guy, but if he can improve his control and carry his stuff a little deeper into games, he has #1 potential. The guy hit 97 the other day in the AFL and has generally worked 90-94 with some 95’s mixed in there. Averege to above average offspeed stuff with a potential plus breaking ball….. I certainly can see where someone who truly rates guys on upside could like Boxberger more than Leake because of those things.
Agreed
Before the AFL, I wouldn’t have had him anywhere close to top 5. After reading into his pitch F/x he looks really really good.
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Leake Hasn't Looked Great Either
Although I saw an amazing plate chart of him. Everything was totally tightly packed inside the zone. Probably 70+% in the zone. That’ll make his stuff play up.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/win/year_2009/month_10/day_27/gid_2009_10_27_msswin_peswin_1//pbp/pitchers/502190.xml&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=1pfx
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Devin Mesoraco
I watched him play quite a bit as a high school player. Three years later, it seems like most, if not all, of that first-round luster has worn off.
Is there any hope for a turnaround?
Absolutely he will turn around
He had a solid year if you look beyond his slash stats. He had an above average walk rate, slightly below average strikeout rate, well above average power and from the middle of May until the end of the year he threw out 48% of the runners attempting to steal against him. I feel real good about him going out next year and busting out. His peripherals are good and the defense behind the plate is getting good reports after some pretty bad ones in 2008.
J'men pick:
1. Yonder Alonso (just for the name Yonder)
2. Todd Frazier
3. Mike Leake
4. Juan Francisco
5. Neftali “Feliz” Soto
The wind is in the buffalo.
My Reds...
01. Alonso
02. Frazier
03. Leake
04. Wood
05. Francisco
06. Soto
07. Boxberger
08. Mesoraco
09. Heisey
10. Rodriguez
Reds eh?
1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Leake
4. Francisco
5. Heisey
6-10 (No order): Wood, Soto, Boxberger, Yorman Rodriguez, Danny Dorn
reds 2 playoff appearances since 1980
3 above .500 teams since 1996
which means fairly high draft picks over that time
One Word
Pirates.
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My 5
. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Leake
4. Wood
5. Heisey
Lots of good talent after this with high upside guys like Rodriguez, Soto, Francisco; some guys I think get underrated alot in Cozart and Sulbaran, and then some other guys I think will carve out decent MLB careers in Maloney, Dorn, Valaika, and Boxberger. Doesn’t have the flashy guys at the top that some teams do, but without really going thru every team this feels like a system that falls in the 16-20 range probably.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Mine
1. Yonder Alonso
2. Chris Heisey
3. Todd Frazier
4. Mike Leake
5. Yorman Rodriguez
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
1 – Alonso
2 – Leake
3 – Frazier (his lack of a position drops him below leake in my mind, but you could go either way)
4 – Francsico
5 – Boxberger
6 – Heisey
7 – Cozart
8 – Y-Rod
9 – Wood
10 – Hamilton
and next year I’m interested in watching how guys like mesoraco, soto, and hamilton. really interested in seeing how soto bounces back, it was hard to leave him off the list.
I love that not even he knew that he scored and he continued to try to put it in - Evilducks
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