Baltimore Orioles Organization Discussion
by John Sickels on Nov 29, 2009 10:36 PM EST
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PrintI'm still working on the Giants and hope to have them finished Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Use this thread to discuss the Baltimore Orioles farm system. Who do you like here....and who are the sleepers?
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Randy Henry
Sleeper of their draft. Was handled very cautiously after blowing out his elbow in high school, and he’s still only 19. Big-time stuff.
I liked the value of that pick
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 29, 2009 11:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I like Xavier Avery's tools
Oliver Drake stands out as a sleeper to me as well as Rick Zagone
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 29, 2009 11:05 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Ryan Berry
I think Berry is going to rip through the minors next season, that is, if he can keep himself healthy.
He is the biggest sleeper of the 2009 draft for the Os.
I agree
He was a great pick in the 9th round
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 29, 2009 11:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ryan Berry
was an outstanding pick
I agree and I think he is the best sleeper of the entire draft for the Orioles as well.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 30, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
Zach Britton
Increasing strikeout numbers, insanely good GB rates, decent command. High floor, high ceiling.
+1
I love this guy!
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 30, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Ceiling...
I’m not sure why his ceiling is so much in question. He’s definitely controversial, but according to KG, some scouts think he’s a potential star. One of the best sinkers in the minors, which he can dial up to the mid 90s (as a LHP), albeit with less movement, and a good slider. The change needs to get better for him to reach his ceiling…but that’s the case with most young pitchers.
by Franchise887 on Nov 30, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
KG also said some scouts don't see it, though
To me, I see another lefty with good but not great stuff who works low 90’s. I like Britton – I think he’s a good prospect. I dont see anything here that really impresses me, though. He’s pretty good at lots of aspects of pitching, but he’s not really great at anything. If he continues a lineal progression of getting better I guess he can be a mid rotation, solid kind of guy. Im not wowed at all by him, though. If any element of his game has trouble translating as he progresses he’s going to run into trouble because he’s isn’t dominant in any aspect…
GBs
He had the 2nd highest GB rate in full season ball this year at 67%, and a mind-boggling 73% over his last 64 IP. That means that over those 64 IP, out of all the guys he faced, 20% struck out, 7.5% walked, and 53% grounded out. So less than 1 in 5 batters got the ball out of the infield. That’s pretty dominant.
by Franchise887 on Nov 30, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
Of course his GB rate won’t stay the same, it will go up some, but his ceiling will be determined partially on how well he maintains the low GB rates. As he improves his command, it will help compensate some for the fact that he is moving up against the tougher competition. These GB pitchers IMO are the hardest ones to project. Brad Bergesen is a good example of this.
As you mentioend as well, if he continues this progression as he makes it through the ranks, you can not conclude that he won’t be dominant in other aspects such as his K rate.
I see his ceiling as a #2 SP, but in order for him to achieve that, he will need to keep a good GB rate as he moves up, as well as improving the consistency of his slider(flashes plus) and the changeup needs to improve to atleast a ML average pitch. As he improves his secondaries(which he has been steadily doing) then there is no reason to think he couldn’t have a “dominant” K rate as well. Furthermore, what do you consider a “dominant” K rate? IMO since he has both the K rate and his GB tendencies going for him, in actuality he does have a fall back if the GB rate slips or the K rate slips. It really is up to his progression which IMO has been among the quickest in the Baltimore system……
Personally I think he ends up a solid middle rotation guy FWIW…..
Matt Hobgood
is the more intriguing prospect to me. Taken #5 overall he is very raw but he faced some good HS competition in South California. He can go bust or he can get into better shape and conditioning and see his stuff get better. This is one of the better systems even without Weiters.
Bobby Bundy
I like his upside, as well as Michael Ohlman’s… but where does Ohlman end up? a corner OF maybe?
by another know it all on Nov 30, 2009 11:28 AM EST reply actions
Or infield corner
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 30, 2009 11:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bundy
I was a little bit disappointed with Bundy’s debut, despite the fact that he might not be completely healthy yet. Despite a .255 BABIP, Bundy still allowed 47 H in 54 IP, so he was far from dominating. He fanned just over 16% of the batters he faced and had a FIP over 5.
I also read some less than encouraging scouting reports about his performance.
Cameron Coffey
The Orioles paid Coffey the largest bonus ever ($990,000 – nice for being drafted in the 22nd round) for a player coming right off of Tommy John surgery. He is the most interesting prospect to me.
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by jesse.burkhart on Nov 30, 2009 12:41 PM EST reply actions
Well, the highest coming OFF of TJS
Brackman signed for approximately a bajillion dollars even they everyone knew he’d almost certainly be needing TJS.
Troy Patton
What is your take on him one year removed from surgery. Had good first half in AA and got shelled in AAA before being shut down. Was that fatigue, new injury or has he peaked?
When coming back from these labrum surgeries, it seems that many pitchers hit a wall in their first year back from surgery. Similarly, Mark Rogers hit the brick wall right around the same IP, around 65. IMO 2010 will be the “make or break” year for Patton. Maybe the O’s give him until 2011, but I feel differently. Patton’s problem though was that his fastball was reportedly topping out around 86-87 MPH this year, though I cannot personally confirm this. Hopefully he comes back strong next season….
Steve Johnson
Age 21 season, had a cumulative 4.45 FIP between AA and A+. Looked real good in a small sample of AA starts. Lots of strikeouts but also a fair number of walks and he’s a flyball pitcher (52.7%). It’s his age more than anything that looks impressive to me.
yes i am very impressed with this guy too
24 hits in 38 innings in AA with a 1.07 WHIP.. in his age 21 season… he might become a really good starter behind matusz and tillman..
Luis Lebron
Converted infielder, good arm, dominant numbers this year. His control could still use some work, but he’s gotten the walks down into the “tolerable” range.
Tons of break out candidates......
Most of the interesting ones have been mentioned. I think Erbe is pretty interesting. He had a breakout year last year coming back from shoulder fatigue. He started to get back into the mid 90 MPH range towards the end of his AFL stint.
I am also very high on Randy Henry who Seiler mentioned above.
We have a lot of sleepers from the 09 draft like Tolliver, Wirsch, Martin, Cowan. Ryan Berry and Cameron Coffey aren’t really sleepers, but will help anchor the system.
IMO this system has some decent guys at the top aside from Matusz(Britton, Erbe, Bell, Snyder) and a bunch of break out candidates.
I already mentioned Wirsch, but can’t forget about Beal either who IMO is sorta like a Wirsch clone(or vice versa). Both guys have good secondaries, command and GB tendencies paired up with tremendous projection. When they start to fill out, they can both become top pitching prospects overnight, the good hard FB is the only thing they are lacking.
I will be looking for Bundy to break out this year as well.
some random thoughts...
Zagone’s my sleeper prospect due to the progress he made during his last few picks.
Snyder’s defense has improved tremendously. I would not be surprised if he becomes a plus defender.
Add me to the Ryan Berry fan train. I think he could be the steal of the draft.
If Joseph’s August was simply a result of him being overworked, and his April-July stats (approx .330/.350/.490) are a more accurate representative of his abilities, then he could end up being too good of a player to be relegated to backup catcher. As an O’s fan, I hope to have the opportunity to see how the O’s handle this.
Bell’s splits worry me.
The lack of position players in the system is worrisome. Is it a result of drafting or development?
The lack of international prospects will hopefully be changed with more time under MacPhail.
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
I think it's just development
Rowell hasn’t turnEd out well so far, and a lot of the players they draft in the early rounds don’t develop either
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 30, 2009 7:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah, looks like development
from our 2005 draft, here are the players who have a reasonable chance to make the major leagues (or already have):
pitchers: Garrett Olson), David Hernandez, Brandon Erbe, Chorye Spoone
hitters: Nolan Riemold, Miguel Abreu
2006 draft
pitchers: Pedro Beato, Zach Britton, Jason Berken,
hitters: Billy Rowell, Blake Davis
2007 draft
pitchers: Jake Arrieta
hitters: Matt Wieters, Matt Angle
over those 3 seasons, we picked 15 hitters and 16 pitchers during the top 10 rounds, so there’s no obvious philosophical bias toward pitchers*. considering that pitching prospects have a significantly higher failure rate than hitters, it looks like our pitcher success rate is unusually high. MacPhail arrived in the middle of 2007 (I think after the draft) – it’s too soon to judge how he and his staff have handled the draft.
one thing that should be noted, though, is that our highest hitter selections did tend to be prep school products: Rowell and Snyder (our highest picks in their respective drafts) both fell in that category. however, so were Erbe and Britton, who are both better prospects ATM than either Rowell and Snyder, so that doesn’t seem to be a big factor either.
Actually, I am pretty happy with how our drafted players have turned out under Joe Jordan. In the 2005 draft, we drafted 3 players who have already broken into the major leagues, Olson, Hernandez and Reimold. Reimold looks to be a stud and Hernandez will be a future stud as well if used correctly(relief). Erbe, Snyder and Spoone have popped up on different top 100 prospect lists as well and look to be part of our future(Spoone now to a slightly lesser extent due to the labrum injury, but before that he was well on his way to stardom). Abreu looks to be the one who won’t become what was originally intended. Not too shabby IMO….
In 06, we have 1 guy who has broken into the ML so far in Berken who can be a usable reliever. This draft also produced Britton who looks to be a top 100 guy this year and a possible consensus top 100 prospect if he continues his progress until he makes it to Baltimore in 2011. He also looks to be a big part of the O’s future. Once again, not too bad IMO.
In 07, we took 2 studs in Arrieta and Wieters who were basically consensus top 75 prospects since they have been in the pros…They are also huge pieces of our future. Angle has a ML future as a 4th OF type, but has some value with his speed, good glove/instincts and good patience at the plate.
Of course, some prospects aren’t going to pan out. Beato had a bright future, but his stuff really fizzled out since being drafted. His fastball is no where near wehat it was originally labeled as.
I do agree that our development system seems to be better with the pitchers than the positional guys. But, now that we are drafting so many more pitchers than hitters, the system by default will be heavier with pitching.
well, now it's a bit different
MacPhail has said outright that his philosophy is to “buy the bats and grow the arms”, so it makes sense that we would draft more pitchers now. :-)
Tyler Townsend
Another interesting guy for me. He did nothing but hit at Florida International, but I was still surprised to see him get popped in the third round because he doesn’t have any other tools (besides his bat, which, given, is sometimes all you need) to speak of. I thought that was a bit of an overdraft for a guy who absolutely must hit a lot to advance. Then he debuted poorly in short-season ball, which is not a good sign for a supposedly polished college hitter. I’m guessing John grades him as a flat C.
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He actually has 2 tools, he has a good hit tool and plus power. To go along with his offense he has pretty good discipline as well. IMO 3rd round is the perfect place for him, if he was a GG defender, he would be a 2nd rounuder atleast. Look at guys like Rich Poythress who similarly only has power and a good hit tool going for him who went in the 1st round if I remember right. Or Bryce Brentz in the upcoming 2010 draft who is slated to be a 1st rounder with really only having plus raw power and a plus hit tool.
Re:
I was including both the hit and power tools when I said “bat” above.
You make a good point about the Poythress comparison, except that I don’t have as much of a problem where Poythress went in the draft because of the competition he faced in college. Townsend did not see the same caliber of pitching as an amateur.
And Brentz also has an above-average arm from right field, plus he’s very athletic, which limits his bust potential by helping him make adjustments more quickly (when those times come). He deserves to go in the first round or supplemental first round.
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More Brentz
Brentz is also an average runner, which lets him play either corner outfield spot. Townsend is probably a 30 runner and doesn’t even have the foot speed to play left field. They are really very different players.
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by jesse.burkhart on Nov 30, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
I do agree, and honestly don’t know about Townsend’s glove. I just wanted to throw out some close comps. Poythress did face good competition, but at the same time, that could also hide some of Townsend’s value. Had he faced tougher competition and performed the same, he could have been a 1st rounder, but since he didn’t(same with Brentz) it is tougher to get a read on his production and how ti would fare against tougher competition. Brentz reminds me a lot of Nolan Reimold to be honest. Athletic good footspeed and arm but not so good with the glove……
Though I personally remember hearing Townsend mentioned among the 3rd round prior to the draft…..If you put Poythress in the 08 draft, he isn’t a 1st rounder IMO. It is I guess product of a weak draft in power hitting corner IFers as far as college levels go….
Jake Cowan
looks like a strong sleeper candidate to me. Cole McCurry had great numbers but was old for his age and I have no idea how good his stuff is.
You can take a peak at my list if you care to: http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/2009/11/orioles-top-40-prospects.html
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
Rowell
Make or break year!!!!
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
Nah...
His make or break year came in 09 IMO. He has really started to fall off the radar. Maybe if the reports were coming back that the tools are still there, that would be one thing, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. As he “filled in” to his lanky frame, he lost athleticismand bat speed. His attitude hasn’t helped him out much either. Furthermore, his pitch recognition skills have never come around, and for him to hit a breaking ball at all is pretty much a miracle in its own. Only power he shows now is BP power…
Nope
Billy has a great Attitude. That sweet Swing. The Youth.
This. Is. It.
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
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