Community prospects last years rookies, 3 way runoff!
by Dalman on Nov 29, 2009 2:13 AM EST
Email
PrintAfter managing to go a round without a runoff, we have one this round with an an exclamation mark, as we have a three way runoff between Kyle Blanks, Chris Coghlan, and Trevor Cahill, each with 20% of the vote after more than a day of voting. Should this poll, determine the results of spots 16, 17, and 18? Given that the next best after these three is 12% it seems likely but less than certain that these three would be the next three if we did it one at a time. Let me know what you think below.
Any suggestions for adds for the next round, you can also post those.
25 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Went with Coghlan on this one
I like Blanks but if Coghlan moves back to 2B he has a much lower threshold to reach on offense to be an above average player and I’m not that confident in Blanks ability to stay in the outfield.
I’m still not ready to go for Cahill he just showed way too much bust potential this year for me to vote for him over some of the guys still on the list. I still believe Cahill can be a very good pitcher but there is a wide range of possible outcomes for him right now.
Coghlan
I went Coghlan but would be interested to hear an argument for Blanks as there has been very little discussion of him in these threads so far.
my thought
If the pattern stays Coghlan and Cahill close, and Blanks way back I am inclined to either make Coghlan and Cahill a tie, or if there is some separation to make them 16 and 17, but to put Blanks back into the poll for number 18. I’m looking for 150-200 votes before calling this and we are only at 80 so far so things certainly could change, in which case my views about how to resolve this may also change. But, whatever, we do, we are not having a further runoff to resolve the top two in this group.
I went with Coghlan
I love his .390 OBP
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter
by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 29, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions
Coghlan
He only belongs this high if he moves back to 2B and can play a passable defense there.
He’s not going to be a .320 hitter going forward and i’d take Reimold over him in LF long term.
Trevor Cahill
Coghlan had the better season, but Cahill should have probably spent the entire year between AA and AAA. His future still looks brighter to me.
I still really like Kyle Blanks. He started icy cold .679 OPS in June, but heated up as he got used to ML pitching .900 OPS in July, and ended as a terrific hitting .914 OPS in August, before hitting the DL. In 172 plate appearance, he put up a .372 wOBA while playing a brand new position. Oh, and remember, all of this was done while playing half his games at Petco (.824 OPS at home, .914 OPS away).
Although I see Blanks moving back to 1B pretty soon (after Adrian Gonzalez gets traded) and being Adam Dunn-esque with the bat, while staying at or slightly above league average with the glove. Even with the positional adjustment, I see Blanks being around a 3 WAR player with a peak of a 4.5 or 5 WAR season. Am I wrong on this?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
nope
you are correct..
blanks is going to be a monster..
contact issues
although his power potential may be Chris Davisesqe, his contact percentage, at least last year, was also Davisesque.
not really
If you look closely at the Plate Discipline statistics on Fangraphs, there are some noticeable differences between the two. Blanks swung at far fewer pitches outsize the strike zone, and made contact on a much higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone. Blanks seemed to rake up a lot of extra strikes by being relatively passive by not swinging at pitches in the zone, whereas Davis racked up his strikeouts by swinging and missing a lot more.
The difference between how Blanks and Davis racked up their similar strikeout rates is analogous to how Miguel Olivo and Adam Dunn achieved their similar strikeout rates – and as we all know, Dunn’s OBP was a lot different than Olivo’s OBP.
His combined AAA/MLB numbers this year makes Blanks seem like a good candidate to be more of an Adam Dunn/Carlos Pena/Jim Thome/Jason Bay type of batter: a lot of power, a lot of Ks, a lot of BBs (and thus, acceptable OBP numbers from a 1B/corner OF).
Coghlan but it was close
I think Blanks has the highest potential to be a superstar but he could also be Kevin Maas. I also like Cahill but he looks like a 2-3 starter. Coghlan is a good hitter and can play good defense as well.
Went With Blanks
As mentioned, the kid has massive power potential.
He started off hitting .159 before the All Star break and then hit .288 with a 1.028 OPS after the All Star break.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see Blanks put up a couple of .280, 40 HR seasons in his career. I just hope he stays in shape.
If San Diego could find a way to keep Gonzalez(doesn’t seem likely), he and Blanks will be a dangerous duo.
Why someone said he shouldn’t be ahead of Matt LaPorta is beyond me. That doesn’t mean I don’t think LaPorta is good but it just doesn’t make any sense to make that comment.
WOW
Someone just stuffed the ballot. I Just checked it about 30 min ago and Coghlan had a good 15+ vote lead. I voted for Blanks so I don’t really care which one of those two wins but I think stuff like that really causes this list to lose some of its credibility.
Yadi is my hero
yeah, wtf?
I was here checking around 6:00 PST and Coghlan had a big ~20 vote lead, now he’s 2nd
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
there is no stuffing the ballot
Each membership ID can vote one time… they cannot vote more then once so i really dont understand how someone could stuff the ballot
by matthewmafa on Nov 30, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
signing out / different IPs / getting people from other fan sites/blogs to all vote for one person
i think these all work
yeah but who would do thhat stuff??
just for a vote… well i can see the last one (other blogs..) but not the first 2… that would be just sad..
by matthewmafa on Nov 30, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
it is sad
but people do it.
almost as if they think if they vote for them more, then the player will be better for it.
baseball rules.
but but but
cahill is gonna read this and gain more confidence and he’ll be the cy young next year!
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
really?
It had been close all day with a narrow lead consistently for Coghlan. I hadn’t been on since earlier this evening and hadn’t seen that big a lead for Coghlan, but I was a bit surprised to find Cahill now with a narrow lead.. The one who has really gained a bunch recently has been Blanks. He was at 12-15% for the first hundred votes or so, and has gotten much more support since then. I’m going to give it another little while.
Done
Well it’s closed up again a bit, I just don’t think a 1% difference is enough of a basis to call this for one over the other, so I’m going to call it a tie between Cahill and Coghlan for 16/17 . Although he has gotten more support as this runoff has gone along, given the significant separation back to Blanks and the fact that no one knows how the 40% that went to Cahill/Coghlan would divide next round, I am going to put Blanks back in the poll for #18 which I will post shortly.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
