My Top 50 Prospect List
by Havok1517 on Nov 28, 2009 3:03 AM EST
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PrintIt has been awhile since someone posted their own prospect lists so I decided to post mine. I tired to take into account future potential as well as past performance. Please be aware that I did not include anyone with major league experience in my ranking. Enjoy!
- J. Heyward (Atl – OF)
- S. Strasburg (Was – SP)
- M. Stanton (Fla – OF)
- P. Alvarez (Pit – 3B)
- J. Montero (NYY – C)
- D. Jennings (TB – OF)
- J. Smoak (Tex – 1B)
- C. Santana (Cle – C)
- K. Drabek (Phi – SP)
- L. Morrison (Fla – 1B)
- H. Rondon (Cle – SP)
- M. Taylor (Phi – OF)
- M. Perez (Tec – SP)
- G. Green (Oak – SS)
- Y. Alonso (Cin – 1B)
- S. Castro (ChC – SS)
- C. Crosby (Det – SP)
- R. Westmoreland (Bos – OF)
- D. Ackley (Sea – OF)
- T. Frazier (Cin – 2B)
- F. Freeman (Atl – 1B)
- J. Hellickson (TB – SP)
- E. Martin (LAD – SP)
- D. Brown (Phi – OF)
- J. Mier (Hou - SS)
- C. Carter (Oak – 1B)
- T. Beckham (TB – SS)
- M. Dominguez (Fla – 3B)
- B. Lawrie (Mil – 2B)
- J. Mejia (NYM – SP)
- D. Gordon (LAD – SS)
- A. Hicks (Min – OF)
- C. Truinfel (Sea – SS)
- Sh. Miller (Stl – SP)
- J. Parker (Ari – SP)
- J. Bell (Bal - 3B)
- A. Cashner (ChC – SP)
- C. Freidrich (Col – SP)
- B. Erbe (Bal – SP)
- J. Turner (Det – SP)
- M. Leake (Cin – SP)
- M. Moustakas (KC – 3B)
- C. Kelly (Bos – SP)
- I. Davis (NYM – 1B)
- J. Castro (Hou – C)
- D. Tate (SD – OF)
- L. Anderson (Bos – 1B)
- T. Sanchez (Pit – C)
- J. Weeks (Oak – 2B)
- D. Storen (Was – RP)
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1st paragraph
Please be aware that I did not include anyone with major league experience in my ranking.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
i think
that savoy was simply pointing out what havok posted. i don’t think they are the same posters. he just cut and paste havok’s comment, i think.
that's correct
Thank you toonster—I did cut and paste that comment. I am most definitely NOT havok.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
You have Erbe over Arrieta?
http://4parl.wordpress.com/ Check it out!
by Markakis and Wieters 4 Life on Nov 28, 2009 9:25 AM EST reply actions
He doesn't even have Arrieta
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 28, 2009 11:34 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Cashner
I’m not sure that Cashner is a top 40 guy, even if you remove the folks who have had experience in the bigs.
this is a pretty solid list.
though Cashner, Triunfel, Erbe, Dominguez, and Weeks are way too high.
D Brown, Friedrich, are way too low… and I think Crow should be on there before guys like Weeks and Storen, among others
Glad...
Someone else said it. I always think that I overrate Friedrich, but if his velocity is in the low to mid 90’s range (I never hear anything consistent here) then he has to be a top 20 guy.
"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"
Lars Anderson...
when an immobile first baseman isn’t even a league average hitter in Double-A, he doesn’t belong anywhere near a top-50 prospect list.
I appreciate the effort, but guys like this are continuously overrated. Yes, he’s young. Yes, he was good in 2008, but for a 1B to deserve top-50 placement, the bat has to be special and major league success needs to be virtually without question. Neither of those things are true for Lars Anderson.
Exactly. If Lars Anderson was in a farm system other than the Red Sox’s would anybody even talk about him anymore? His ceiling looks like a league average 1B…..
He's 22 years old
(was 21 for the majority of last season) and put up 900+ OPS in his first 2 seasons.
His BABIP was low last year at .293 in comparison to 2007 and 2008’s lines, and his K/BB numbers weren’t drastically different. I would not count him out as still having a ton of potential, and I think he’ll rebound in 2010.
oh, it was a crappy year, let's not get around that
His strikeouts (which were never low) jumped sharply, and a .293 BABIP really isn’t much to complain about. Perhaps this is his natural level of performance and the other two years were a function of inferior defense, lower quality pitching, etc.?
He obviously still has a ton of potential and is a decent rebound candidate to regain some of his stock, but you don’t forget years like the one Lars Anderson had this year.
He's...
also a guy with classic old-player skills, and 100% of his value is in his bat. Nobody’s doubting that there’s potential there, but a guy like this has virtually zero margin of error: if he becomes one of the 30-40 best hitters on Earth, he’ll have some value. Anything less than that, the positional adjustment and his poor glove make him an average player.
Call me crazy, but I don’t think a guy who put up a sub-.700 OPS in Double-A is a great bet to be one of the very best hitters alive. Potential, sure, but his prospect status has taken a HUGE hit.
Normalizing a .293 BABIP doesn’t do much to make Anderson’s season any better. His .112 ISO is the kind of thing you only tolerate from “top prospects” if they’re guys like Jacoby Ellsbury – fleet-footed plus defenders at premium positions. From a 1B, that’s simply unacceptable. Anderson may have gotten an unlucky bounce or two, but there’s no statistical filter you can run his 2009 season through to make it look like anything other than what it was: an unmitigated disaster.
in 2009, Anderson put up the exact same ISO in the minors as Alcides Escobar. The best defensive shortstop alive who can steal bases at an 80% success rate can hit at that level and still be considered a good prospect. A poor defensive first baseman can’t.
i'm not arguing
that it was an embarrassing season for Lars, but I think someone with his kind of potential doesn’t deserve to be completely jumped ship on. I personally believe there’s a HUGE adjustment from A-ball to AA, and many guys struggle with the transition, some adjust and some don’t.
I’m not saying Lars will or will not, but it seems like he may have been a tad bit overrated to begin with, although I do still believe he can be an well above-average MLB bat.
There's...
a huge difference between jumping ship and saying he doesn’t belong anywhere near a top-50 list. There are thousands of guys in the minors. Lars Anderson isn’t one of the 50 most likely to have a long and productive major league career.
There's no evidence Lars is a "poor defensive 1B"
Nor is he “unathletic.” He’s actually surprisingly fleet of foot.
This stuff started when he had the bad back and seems to have snowballed. Its not true. Watch video of him or read reports from >1 year ago. Most say things like “he moves well for a guy his size” and his defense isnt a negative by any means – not that he’s Doug Mientkiwiecz.
Your points all still hold true, of course. Just to a lesser extent, IMO.
As to his year, it certainly was a disaster, but there was reason a year ago to think he was a pretty special bat and there is still plenty of reason to believe that. The kid was very young for his league and has a very advanced approach at the plate. He also has massive amounts of raw power that he has no idea how to use. His ceiling is still quite high. Prospect development is rarely linear, unfortunately. Still lots to like about Lars, he’s just fallen far from last year.
Here's a video of him running
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J7NdyX2HIo&feature=player_embedded
He’s not Jacoby Ellsbury, but he’s not a big stiff.
I guess he’s big enough that he raises some concern about how mobile he’ll be in his late 20’s and up, but that’s a different argument…
This really all started with a comment by KG I believe, who stated he was hearing from scouts that Lars looked old and stiff – and it was in the cold weather in the early part of the season when he has having back trouble.
one could use this evidence.
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=502249
note that those numbers are apparently only through july 31 for this past season. weigh minor league defensive stats however you like.
Reports...
from 1 year ago aren’t as valuable to me as more recent reports, which have him looking more and more like an immobile guy with a slow bat. Goldstein’s been reporting this from scouts for months.
Um... Posey is missing
I’m pretty sure there is no way he isn’t a top 10 prospect. Bumgarner? Is he out of the top 50 now too?
"Please be aware that I did not include anyone with major league experience in my ranking"
that’ll explain it
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com
I get it but I think that it isn't very useful.
These are still guys that are going to start in the minors and had 17 at bats and 10 IP, respectively. Thanks for being a little rude lemonjello but what is the point of disregarding september callups that were just getting a taste of being around the major league club. Are we no longer going to call Conor Gillaspie a prospect because it was in his contract that he got to spend september with the giants last year and accumulated 5 at bats. I realize it’s his list and he can do what he wants but it simply isn’t complete nor as useful as a list with all “prospects” on it.
no rudeness intended
just posting what the OP wrote. I agree with your point.
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com
ethan martin...
he looks like hes wayy to high in these rankings…
He could be really high...
on some lists and really low on others. This guy could be ranked pretty much any where outside of the top 20 and I would be fine with it.
Westmoreland
a great talent no doubt, but 18 strikes me as a little high for a guy who hasn’t played in full-season ball, and has been prone to injury in the past. I would put at least Carter, Ackley and Dom Brown ahead of him as far as position players go.
Also, I’m not sure how I feel about relievers in the top 50. As good as Storen has been, the track record for guys drafted as relievers in the bigs isn’t great, and Storen will need to be a dominant shutdown closer to have the kind of value that would make him a top 50 prospect IMO.
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com
i agree
while i do like westmoreland a lot, i dont think he has as good of tools as dom. brown anyway, plus he hasnt even been able to stay healthy for a full season
Brown's tools...
aren’t even that close to Westmoreland’s. He is a potential Grady Sizemore while Brown reminds me a little of Felix Pie.
i hate doing the same argument like 18 times.
sorry… do a search for d brown comments by me.
i think it was an ‘Ask BA’ in august or something similar, where one of the BA writers said scouts have told him that d brown is 60 or above in each category… i highly doubt that Westmoreland is above that, much less that Brown’s tools :
“aren’t even that close to Westmoreland’s.”
so please research a little before you spout bullshit. it drags the quality of this place down.
if i’m sure where i saw this, but i think westmoreland’s potentials tools right now are are all projected to be avg or better on the 20-80 scale, with his power being the lowest rated at 50, and speed at 60/65.
of course this can always change, but as of right now it’s hard to make an argument that he is better than brown.
Tools wise, that is. I think Westmoreland does indeed have the higher ceiling in terms of tools. Theyre both incredible athletes with exceptional tools, but Id give a slight edge to Westmoreland’s.
well then i've severely under-rated westmoreland
but i’d like to hear someone actually say it first… i found the quote i was looking for. it was Ben Badler in an august BA chat.
just don’t see what’s not to like about Brown. He’s got five tools that mostly rate as 60s or 70s, either now or in the future, with advanced pitch recognition, and he’s performed well this year.
Westmoreland has about as good a set of tools as anyone in the minors.
One scout described Westmoreland as having “the tools of a top-five high school pick, with the advanced skills of a college player.” Supremely athletic, Westmoreland has average power with projection for more, as well as a keen understanding of the strike zone and a silky smooth swing with some natural lift to it. He’s an outstanding runner with instincts
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
His tools border on being ridiculously good
He combines plus power with plus-plus speed, plays a very good center field, and has a big-time arm. His silky smooth actions and extreme athleticism gives him a ceiling higher than any player in the system.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8444
again, Brown is also ridiculous...
Id love to see them lined up and put through the NFL combine, actually.
Realistically, we’re talking about two of the elite, inner circle toolsy prospects right now. So basically splitting hairs…
Brown tools/skills
The question I have heard about brown isn’t tools realted that much but skills: poor outfield routes and awkward load as a hitter. The weird thing is references, admittedly mainly from project prospect, to being “uncoordinated.” But that seems skills related as well, and some people just said he was tired in AFL.
PP nevertheless had him as one of the top 5 prospects in the AFL.
As for this list as a whole, i think some guys are overranked: Green kinda sticking out. i think he takes the position scarcity for ss and this bumps up certain guys: Green, Beckham, Dee Gordon, Miers, even Castro. I like Miers but he is pretty far away i’d think at present. Castro seems to be rocketing up lists, and he is probably top 50 but a little high here for me.
Jason castro, Tony sanchez, Moustakas, Weeks, triunfel, Drabek all seem a little high to me, at first glance.
lol
First, Dave is right. You have no clue what you are talking about.
I was going to pull your “argument” apart for Pie but Patterson is just as easy.
Patterson has no plate discipline what so ever. He has never exceeded a 7% walk rate in a MLB season and has a 4.6% BB rate for his career. He strikes out at a high rate.
Patterson is 7 inches shorter than Brown and Brown has a ton of room to add bulk to his frame.
Patterson was a CF, Brown is going to play a corner.
Brown profiles for significantly more power than Patterson.
As for westmoreland, ditto to Dave. Your assert is completely inaccurate.
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D Brown is like 8 inches taller than Corey Patterson and doesn't even play the same position
please stop posting
Don't play the same position?
they both play center field. The only reason Brown might not play it in the majors is because Victorino. Also, if you look at both of their numbers from the low minors, they are very similar. Patterson never showed that he would be a strike out machine in the minors, not even close. Also height doesn’t matter that much if we are talking about tools. Both had little power and good speed to go along with average plate discipline. Brown doesn’t have btter than avearge right now, he may project to have better in the future, but doesn’t right now. He has had strikeout rates of around 20% most of his time so far in the minors and his BABIP was pretty high and will likely come down making his OBP even lower. He has good tools, I’m not saying he doesn’t it just seems to me by looking at his stats that he will eventually flame out.
Westmoreland on the other hand, has shown more speed, power, patience, and defensive ability then Brown did in his first season in the minors. He has good height, he had an OBP of over 400 in his first year in the minors, and has shown more power than Brown has at a similar age.
brown is a RF
played in RF exclusively in 2009
one of many reasons why patterson is a horrible comp
please
You still don’t know what your talking about.
The only reason you made the Pie/Patterson comp is because the color of the guys skin. These players are nothing a like. Brown projects for a ton more power than Pie or Patterson.
Please explain to me how size doesn’t matter in a comparison? There are thousands of prior MLB players, you couldn’t think of someone who was closer to Dom. Brown’s size?
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This might be the only list that has Green ranked higher than Carter
And with Weeks also on the list, this means you see Wallace as no better than Oakland’s 4th best prospect? Interesting. Not saying you’re wrong, but interesting.
by thejd44 on Nov 28, 2009 4:15 PM EST reply actions
Correct
I think Carter is going to be a fine pro DH/1B but I think Green has the tools to be elite as a prime position. Weeks has 20/20 upside at another prime position while I think Wallace will not last at 3B at all, he’s slow and lacks power potential. Plus, as a DH/1B he’s not special. I’m thinking if Wallace makes it as a pro his best case scenario is Sean Casey-like, which isn’t horrible but Casey had some large holes in his game and I see Wallace in the same mold. Wallace’s doubles will continue to be doubles and not homers, imo.
what are you basing your
“lacks power potential” comments on regarding Wallace? He hit 20 HR’s last year as a 22 year old between double and triple A spending 3/4’s of his time in a pitcher friendly league. Given his size and his swing, why is there any reason to assume he lacks power potential? 15 HR’s in 400 PCL AB’s isn’t chicken scratch. Most scouting reports I’ve read have indicated that Wallace has 25-30 HR potential in the major leagues. I wouldn’t call that a “lack of power potential”
Weeks has 20/20 potential but Wallace lacks power potential
Ha
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Wallace does lack potential...
for someone his size. His short swing may prevent him from being a constant 30+ homer threat. He should hit around 25 every year and be a good hitter from the number 5 hole in the line up.
I think 25 is high
I believe he does lack power potential. His power is definitely a question mark, but not a gigantic one. He should have okay power at the minimum, but I dont hear anyone projecting much of anything beyond that.
Um, this is a really bizarre way to rank a player
25 homers is 25 homers, and teams shouldn’t care if the player is the size of Mini Me or Paul Bunyan. (Ok, a bit of an exaggeration there, but the point is still valid, I think)
by thejd44 on Nov 29, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
The wording is a bit strange, but if Wallace is a 1B/DH then 25 HR might not
be worth as much as 20 from 2B Weeks….or even CF Weeks. I guess he/she agrees that the A’s should have picked Weeks over Wallace.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 30, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
Green at #14 is really high. Wow.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 30, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
Shelby Miller
Why is every one souring on Jacob Turner now?
He has better control of his fastball than Miller, and from what I hear a little more developed curveball.
Fastball control
Is a pretty big plus by the way, and a fundamentally vital trait to possess by the way. I love Shelby Miller, but I have a feeling he may struggle in that department for his two or three years. And if not struggle, at least find it somewhat difficult to throw strikes.
souring on Turner?
The OP has Turner listed No. 40 . . .which is pretty strong praise for a guy who’s never thrown a pitch in a college or professional game.
That being said, he’s a better prospect than Shelby Miller. He might be a better prospect than Tyler Matzek, although at this point in time that’s basically a push.
Oh – and this is worth saying in this thread – he’s a better prospect than Casey Crosby. This list is inoffensive (as you’d hope for when it’s only going 50-deep), but did anybody NOT cringe when they saw Crosby at No. 17?
I think Turner is...
the second best high school arm from this draft class next to Matzek. I would still rate Crosby ahead of him at this point because Turner hasn’t played at all yet in the minors and Crosby has pretty much dominated. Both would probably be in the 25-35 range for me and Miller would barely crack top 50.
Casey Kelly
Is he really deserving of the accolades he has received over the last year?
A guy that has cruised through the lower minors because he can control an 89 mph fastball, and not a lot else. Good serviceable curveball, but not a stunner.
I really can’t figure out why the Sox haven’t given him his ticket to Toronto yet.
His velocity is better than 89.
According to everyone who’s seen him.
I have heard...
88-92. That’s not bad with his other pitches and I could see him adding more velocity once he starts only pitching and gets his arm strength up.
i think i remember
seeing him hit 92 and 93 in the futures game
scoutingthesally
saw him several times and said he his fastball registering in the upper 80s and breaking 90 on rare ocasions. Also said he projects to throw a little harder in the future.
He just did a comparison of kelly to banuelos yesterday:
It's not the fastball with Kelly
It’s the face I could make a strong argument he had the TWO best breaking pitches I saw all season. He has an EXTREMELY high floor.
Mike Newman
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by ScoutingTheSally on Nov 30, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
yes
I was just giving your comments on the fastball, but in the article I linked to you were pretty clear you think he is a very good prospect regardless of the fact that for now he isn’t sitting 90+. Idon’t know why but I kept thinking Bobby Jones if he could touch 90 mph and had plus breaking pitches. :)
Playing...
for the Red Sox is an automatic 10-spot bump in prospect rankings.
Honestly with their history of player development I’m not even sure that’s a bad thing.
That said...
I really think Kelly’s overrated. He doesn’t miss nearly enough bats.
he seems to miss enough bats for someone so young
good GB rates, too. I don’t think anyone’s projecting him as an ace
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 28, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
not totally true
He seems to be a good candidate to add a bit more velocity due to his relative inexperience and physical projection, although I’m guessing he’s probably always going to be average-ish in that department.
If he doesn’t progress from where he’s at right now, he’d probably profile as a solid No. 3-4 starter. But there’s a lot of room for growth with him and he seems to have excellent command that should play up improvements he makes in other parts of the game.
I don't like the placement of Shelby Miller
Do you know something that we don’t. He doesn’t have any significant data since the draft and Hobgood, Wheeler, Matzek and Turner were all high upside arms taken ahead of him. I can maybe understand ranking him ahead of Hobgood because he was considered a reach but I think you would have an extremely hard time arguing that Miller is better and/or has higher upside than the other 3.
Especially...
Montgomery. I would put him ahead of Crosby. Chisenhall is different. Some people love him, but some like me aren’t that impressed. I still would have put him in the top 50 though.
Am a Big chisenhall fan
Do you guys think he is a SS or 3B?
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Nov 28, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
3B.
Chisenhall probably needs another good year to be considered elite, but he definitely deserves to be top 50.
by Alex Trebek on Nov 28, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
hedging your bets
You aren’t impressed by him . . .but he’s still in your top 50?
At least one of these three is true:
A) The guys in the minors suck right now.
B) joegonzo is REALLY hard to impress.
C) Lonnie Chisenhall + groupthink = joegonzo’s head is spinning.
What I think Joegonzo's trying to say
is that Chisenhall won’t be a star but should a solid everyday player. Personally I like him, but the question is will he hit 20 hrs or 28-30 hrs… I think he sticks as a 3b and should be in the top 50.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
That's part of it...
I also think there are guys who are much more impressive. I could see him being a Casey Blake type player with slightly more power. That doesn’t scream star to me and there are guys I like better at the third base position in the minors. Alvarez, Bell, and Dominguez are all better in my opinion. I do think he deserves to be there over Moustakas though.
I think Chisenhall's floor is Casey Blake
He has a great swing and all the tools to be a plus defender at 3B. There’s a reason everyone is all over him. Every report about him glows these days.
I never said...
his potential was Casey Blake, just that is the type of player I see him being with more power. A 280 hitter with 20 homeruns a year and average to above average defense at third is still a good player, but I think there are guys who could do more.
Blake
Blake has had a 20 WAR career at 3B with his best year being his age 36 season.
Given Chisenhall’s defense alone, he should have a Blake floor.
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Crosby at 17?
Aggressive ranking… may I ask why?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Combo of his...
size, frame, velocity, and that he’s a lefty starter make him a rare prospect. There aren’t that many in the majors (C.C., Lester, Hamels, and Kershaw are the only ones I can think of) let alone the minors. His evident successful recovery more so than his past injury gave me more confidence in his ranking.
I sorta gotta ask
but those are only left starters in the majors you can think of? Lee, Pettite, Lilly and so forth. I mean, lefties are definitely valuable. Just seemed weird that Lee was off the list of guys you could think of.
None of the lefties you mentioned...
can throw at high velocities. The ones that I mentioned can at least get it up to mid-90’s. Crosby has been clocked as high as 97 mph.
I don't know when the last time
was that you watched Cole Hamels, but I don’t think he’s worked in the mid 90’s for some time.
I can think of a number of young lefties in the majors that have mid 90’s fastballs. Brett Anderson, Josh Outman, Derek Holland, Andrew Miller, David Price etc.
Velocity from the left side doesn’t necessarily = success.
btw
according to pitchFX, Hamels’ highest average fastball velocity for any one season was 91.1 MPH in 2007. Not what you’d call your prototypical power pitcher.
I don't think Hamels has EVER worked in the mid-90s
He was 88-92 coming out of high school. I think the hardest I’ve seen him throw at any point is 93-94, and he certainly wasn’t sitting there.
Of course, Hamels’ velocity was never his calling card.
ah
i somehow missed the velocity comment in there.
that said, isn’t Crosby’s fb more in the 90-94 range.
92-96
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Nov 30, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
go Jennings go!
Jennings and Hellickson are 2 of the greatest prospects in baseball. I can’t wait for the Rays to call them up.
Give me a CC long term deal, please!
frazier has gone from underrated to overrated in a big hurry
his bat looks OK for a 2B, but certainly not great, and his defense is likely to be subpar at the position. i can’t see how he’s even a top 50 prospect, let alone top 20.
baseball rules.
I think I like Frazier more than most,
but he’s not a top 20 prospect whether he plays 2B or not. I’d guess he’d be in the 45-60 range for me(haven’t made a full list yet), which I think is still going to be higher than most people would have him.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Where is SS Danny Espinosa?
He is one of the best SS in all the minors. And where’s C Derek Norris? Your top 50 list is mad flawed.
Be real with yourself.
Many believe...
Chase D’arnaud is better than Espinosa and he is not there either. Also Derek Norris probably does deserve to be there.
I didn't say he was the best SS prospect
I said he was one of the best. I think he’s in the top 3 best SS prospects.
Be real with yourself.
Regarless of whether Espinosa is a top 3 SS prospect or not,
what does that have to do with him being on a top 50 list? Just because there might be only 2 shortstops that might rank ahead of him(not sure I buy him as top 3 at all, Castro and Brignac are both ahead in my mind without thinking about Beckham, D’Arnaud, etc.) it doesn’t mean that there aren’t 50 prospects overall that are better than him. My guess is Espinosa ends up a fringy top 100 guy, definitely not someone I’d expect to see in a top 50.
RIP Nick Adenhart
indeed
Position scarcity is never a good reason to give an individual player more credit than he’s due.
Here are my top 25 SS prospects
My List
1. Escobar – I usually don’t rank MLBers, but speed, avg, team, park, and glove profiles well here
2. Green – Sorry, the tools, power, frame, size, polish, and ability to adapt could make him elite
3. Castro – Easily the top rising prospect and with good reason, speed, body, frame, age, contact
4. Beckham – Tools galore and even though he hasn’t been stellar, he still oozes potential
5. Mier – 2nd SS taken in ‘09, would teams really now take him over Green? I doubt it. I like him
6. Brignac – I think he will still be very productive as a pro, just needs to get a full chance somewhere
7. Gordon – Speed, glove, pedigree, and arm make him a play, speed could even move him to CF
8. Truinfel – He might move to 3B but I also see a breakout coming if healthy, only to be 19
9. Espinosa – I’m a big fan, crazy arm and strong bat, K’s are worrisome, Desmond might have better D forcing him elsewhere
10. Givens – If he stays at SS he has all the tools to succeed, amazing infield arm as well
11.Renfroe – I really liked him in the draft, if he stays at SS he’ll be starter there
12. Desmond – I liked what I saw last year, I think he’ll continue to get stronger and better
13. Flores – He’s young enough and hitting decently at the levels he’s playing
14. Iglesias – NEEDS TO HIT, doesn’t project very well for me, could be just a glove, small
15. Franklin – He looks to be the heir at SS if Tru does indeed move
16. Nelson – Needs a new home but I like his potential if he stays healthy, late bloomer if healthy
17. Donald – He’s a major league SS if healthy which is something as many won’t ever get there
18. Havens – I like him more than most, but I worry about position and development
19. Cumberland – I don’t think he has the bat nor great potential
20. Lee – Blocked but he could grow to be pretty good
21. Sano – Hasn’t proven anything but scouting reports say he’s a legit talent
22. Crawford – Could develop into a pretty good big leaguer if he can cut the K’s
23. Tejada – Jury still out but seems to be fast slap hitting glove with decent power potential
24. Gomez – Blocked like a mofo, might grow into some power but I like Nelson slightly more
25. Cozart – He hasn’t hit much and I personally don’t he’s a MLB starter having watched in Dayton
Beckham oozes tools? Really?
He’s not a plus runner, he doesn’t control the strike zone, he might have to move off of SS, his arm is a little above average, and in two seasons so far he’s hit .267. If he wasn’t taken #1 he would be a lot lower on that list.
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by Imperialism32 on Nov 30, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah that ship sort of sailed this year
Maybe theyll come back, but the reason so many people are dropping him is because he didnt look particularly toolsy.
I still like him.
...because
it’s the AFL…such a small sample size
Who cares?
Strasburg looked ridiculous pitching there and everyone raved about him. No one is making a statistical argument about his performance so SSS isnt really a big deal here.
The assertion was made that Stras shouldnt be ranked somewhere b/c he hasnt pitched in the minors. Well he HAS pitched in the minors and he looked awesome. If the assertion had been “he shouldnt be ranked #1 because he’s never pitched a full season” – THAT would make a little sense, but lets face it: the kid looks ridiculous. No one believes he is going to flop at some stage anymore. Or at least, they shouldnt…
+1 in this situation
I do think “we” tend to have a SNTS when it comes to recent draftees and the only was that is curbed is by letting these guys get minor league PA/BF. I believe it is in BA/KG/JS best interest (though I’ve only noticed it with BA) to hype up the recent draftees or prospect because that is their business.
Strasburg should be a consensus 1b. Heyward isn’t a slouch and while I’d probably take Strasburg over him (despite the studies that show Heyward is a more likely bet) Heyward has proven himself against better competition at this point.
You can’t really fault Strasburg because this is totally out of his control.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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Yeah
I know everything tells me that the position player (Heyward) is the better bet – and he is awesome… but I just feel strongly that if we lined up all the MLB GMs and had them choose the answer would overwhelmingly be Strasburg.
RE
Eric Manning had a nice post at fangraphs about the bust rate of prospects. I don’t know why he didn’t use John’s A grade. So I’m going to ask him about it over twitter now.
I would take Strasburg too. I believe he has the potential to be a once in a life time talent. I’ll take the 20% bust rate chance too.
I’m going to read Victor’s saber piece soon too.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Agreed - his talent is just too special not to rank him #1
I understand the preference shown to players with a professional track record but there are exceptions to every rule
is there really a difference between 1 and 2?
Does it really matter? If you’re the #1 or #2 prospect, basically what is being said about you is that you’re at the top of your peers. Case closed.
I'm constantly amazed by JoeGonzo
How can a guy who has never been to a minor league baseball game know so much about prospects? (Sarcasm)
Mike Newman
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by ScoutingTheSally on Nov 30, 2009 4:04 PM EST reply actions
So many discussion points here....
Rondon at #11 – Really? I know scouting opinions seem to be very divergent on this guy. Some think he is a future stud, while others see him as nothing more than a back end innings eater with very little upside.
Green at #14 – I don’t mind putting him in a top 50 list, but this is probably a little too high. Personally I see him as having a pretty high floor but a fairly low upside. I just don’t think he has the power to make himself an elite SS. KG I think called him a future 12/20 guy.
S. Castro at #16 – This guy was so underrrated that he is now becoming overrated. He is another guy I would slot much lower – more like a borderline top 50 guy. I just don’t see the offensive tools to make him anything more than league average for the position. The glove is great, but he has little pop and little speed.
Ackley at #19 – Seems pretty low for this kind of list. I guess maybe if you don’t think he can play CF due to the arm surgery, then maybe it makes more sense. But even as a 1B, I would rather have him on my team than Alonso.
Frazier at #20 – Another guy that was so underrated that he is now becoming overrated. Frazier is a solid bat, but the jury is still out as to whether he can handle 2B. Glove-wise, I think he fits much better at 3B. Frazier is not especially quick.
Those are my own thoughts on the top 20.
Green
He called him a 15/25 guy. I like Grant Green and I think he’s underrated a bit on this board, but I agree that his position is much too high on this list. I think he’s in the 50-75 range.
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