BA Pirates Top 10
by rdf8585 on Nov 24, 2009 11:28 AM EST
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TOP TEN PROSPECTS
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b
2. Jose Tabata, of
3. Tony Sanchez, c
4. Brad Lincoln, rhp
5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b
6. Starling Marte, of
7. Tim Alderson, rhp
8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp
9. Rudy Owens, lhp
10. Gorkys Hernandez, of
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Jose Tabata
Best Power Hitter Pedro Alvarez
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Chase d'Arnaud
Fastest Baserunner Jose de los Santos
Best Athlete Chase d'Arnaud
Best Fastball Victor Black
Best Curveball Brad Lincoln
Best Slider Victor Black
Best Changeup Daniel McCutchen
Best Control Rudy Owens
Best Defensive Catcher Tony Sanchez
Best Defensive Infielder Argenis Diaz
Best Infield Arm Argenis Diaz
Best Defensive Outfielder Gorkys Hernandez
Best Outfield Arm Starling Marte
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Meh
I’m really not impressed with the top talent in this system. Other than Alvarez, I don’t see any impact prospects, and I’m extremely skeptical of him staying at third.
Alvarez...
is going to be given every chance to stick at third. Also, their entire top ten are potential impact players pretty much. I can see how you don’t think Rudy Owens, Gorkys Hernandez, and Tim alderson are, but the rest have pretty decent shots. Especially players like Marte, D’arnaud, Tony Sanchez, and ZVR. Marte probably has the most potential in the entire farm system, D’arnaud is a potential above average SS, Sanchez has above average defense and power with all of his other tools being average, and ZVR could be a top of the rotation starter. If all goes right I could see him being a Dan Haren type pitcher.
I fail to see how giving Alvarez the opportunity changes the fact that I’m skeptical about him sticking there. The Pirates may play him there out of necessity, but I’m not expecting much more than Miguel Cabrera-esque range.
I said top talent which meant upper levels (although I probably could have been clearer)…
-Tabata is a line drive hitter without much power to speak of. I’m not sure how well his bat will play in a corner spot if his power doesn’t come around.
-Sanchez isn’t an upper level prospect, but even still I think his ceiling is Yadier Molina. A good player, but I don’t know about impact.
-Lincoln is probably a good #3 starter if he can develop his change up.
-I like d’Arnaud and he’d be my #4 prospect. I think he turns into a solid second baseman.
-Starling Marte is still very far away.
-I don’t like Alderson at all.
-I like ZVR, but he is very far away.
-Rudy Owens is interesting and could be a decent starting pitcher if he builds on this year.
-Gorkys is Endy Chavez if he pans out.
I mostly agree
I voted C.
I like a lot of these guys but none I really love. Several of these guys look solid though. I think both Tim Alderson and Gorkys Hernandez have been over rated in the past, but still are decent names at the end of a top 10.
So not ripping it, but overall not better than average.
I agree more with you, I think there is definite potential. I also think Tabata/Sanchez at least have decent shots at being above average making the top of their system pretty good. I still really like Robbie Grossman and I’m curious what Pounders, Cunningham, and Bishop do next year.
I think there is plenty of talent to justify a B rating but I wouldn’t be surprised by a C either. I still think NH and his crew is doing a fine job all things considered.
d'Arnaud
Really like him. No real + tool, but he hit well in A, AA and AFL, supposedly is serviceable at ss but would be ok at 2b as well, and I really like the SBs as well. 40 or so in 125 odd games ifr you include AFL. Like you said, potential above-average ss. May depend on your definition of potential impact, but anyone who might be a 2+ WAR starting ss means potential impact to me.
+1
Should he make BA’s top 100? How many Pirates does anyone realistically see making it? I think all the way up to Alderson has a chance, but I think only the top 5 will.
I really only see..
Alvarez, Sanchez, Lincoln (he has had a resergence imo), Tabata, and Alderson making BA’s top 100 (in that order imo)
I wouldn't be shocked...
but I don’t think he truly deserves to be on their. I also think D’arnaud pretty much has to be on there with the lack of SS depth in the minors.
should be
But I don’t think d’Arnaud will make it. Not a BA list anyway. I don’t think John is all that impressed with him either visually, per his AFL notes, although I am sure John thinks his stats are pretty decent. ProjectProspect seems to like him a little more. I think they ranked him 5th among ss or so.
I like him...
he has the stats and he has good enough tools. What is there to not like about this guy?
I like the depth to be honest
The bloom has worn of Alderson and Hernandez, but the fact they are near the bottom of the top ten shows the improvement the Pirates have made depth wise.
But yea, aside from Alvarez, I don’t see any guys that will be threatening to make All-Star teams. Whiffing on Lincoln and Moskos really hurts.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Can't call Lincoln...
a whiff. He was widely considered the best pitcher going into that draft. The Pirates selected him and he ran into some bad luck, but he still has a decent chance to be a #2 or 3 on a good team.
They didn’t really “whiff” on Lincoln. He looks like he’ll be a serviceable SP as early as next year.
I like the depth of this system. There are a lot of interchangeable parts here, but there’s definitely the making of a solid team. I agree with those who don’t see a standout guy, though.
+1
Lincoln looks pretty solid. Maybe not a great pitcher, but he throws tons of strikes and has respectable stuff. He probably also has more untapped potential in him than a lot of pitchers his age, between being a two-way player in college and a TJ survivor.
A No. 1 starter he isn’t, but he’s going to be a useful piece in some capacity and in short order. Lincoln’s ranking on this list is more a nod to the guys ahead of him than a slight to him.
To anyone who is still doubting...
the Pirates new FO. Look at their top ten list from 2-3 years ago and compare this one with it. The difference is phenominal. Also, where would this system rank in the NL central? What about the majors? To me they are top 2 in the NL central and are also in the top half in the majors.
They also traded almost everyone of value away
While I’m absolutely certain that Neal Huntington is better than DL, especially at drafting (although I didn’t like his first round strategy at all), his trade history hasn’t exactly been stellar. This point has been made before, but all that he’s really done is traded average players for a bunch of guys that may be average in the future. I’d rather see him aim at quality instead of always opting for quantity.
I don’t really agree that all he has done is trade average players (I do agree most of them were average) for guys who may be average. Sure they may end up being average but that isn’t their ceiling. I’m not saying they will all be all-stars but I don’t think it is far to state that is the best they can be if that is in fact what you are saying.
Plus, when you have nearly nothing to work with on the farm, you need to build depth. Once you have depth built, you can afford to take some chances.
Getting anything of value...
for F. Sanchez and Wilson, with those contracts, was pretty impressive imo.
Jack Wilson's been worth an average of ~$9M the last two years...
while making ~$6M.
Another thing to consider...
while Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, and Brad Lincoln may lose their prospect elgibilty for next year, the Pirates have the number two pick in the draft this year and may get a top talent like Bryce Harper. Combine that with all of the potential in their system, this list may look even better next year.
Personally, I prefer systems like this. There are a lot of players who are going to be worth more than they’re getting paid in the near future for this team, and that will help lay a foundation for success. In those situations you can easily find a place to add a key upgrade and can trade off other useful pieces. IMO, this system is fairly similar to the Brewers system except that the Brewers prospects are at a bit more advanced stage with perhaps a slightly higher ceiling.
Veal
Don’t forget about Veal, still under 50 IP…. some sleeper potential there. A good guy to chance.
and he had
a great fall league i believe
by miraclemets on Nov 25, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Sure the Pirates prospects as a whole
may be average at best but let’s consider some potential breakout seasons are bound to be plentiful. We do draft 2nd overall when means the way NH and Stark have been drafting we’re looking at a 12 million budget with plenty of top-notch talent. It woulda been nice to get Sano if Plummer wasnt’t such a douche. We are bound to get a few solid prospects when we trade Doumit, Duke, Maholm, and even Capps within the next year. I’ll go so far to say if Neal holds on to Maholm we could get a Cliff Lee-esque package at the trade deadline.
I can see the Pirates finally have one of the best Minor League systems within a couple of years IF they stick to the plan. In other words.
2009 Texas Rangers = 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates
by BadAndy on Nov 24, 2009 8:58 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Well, I’d very much like to see Neal draft an impact prospect despite their risks (like an AJ Cole, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Matzek or Jacob Turner), but will he? I’m not so sure.
You can’t fault Plummer for doing his job. The Pirates tried to side step him in order to get a better deal and it cost them. Coonelly was lucky that his game of chicken didn’t cost the Pirates Alvarez a year earlier. I don’t consider Sano much of a loss though (due to the complete uncertainty attached to IFAs), but I’d have very much liked to have seen that money go into the draft. Whether it would have been used to sign a Den Dekker, Wes Luquette, Michael Heller or to upgrade from Sanchez to a Grant Green, it’d have been better used there.
If you believe the reports, they offered Capps or Doumit for JJ Hardy, but the Brewers refused and demanded either Duke or Maholm. If anyone’s willing to give up anything of value for Capps, I’d be pretty happy. I like Doumit, but he injures himself on a regular basis which really kills his value. Maholm is the best pitcher that the Pirates have, but he’s not going to return a Cliff Lee-esque package.
If Neal continues to spend a ton of money in the draft, it’s possible that the 2012 system will be elite.
all i know is either harper or taillon will be there at #2 and the pirates better draft them
mlbprospectreport.blogspot.com
why?
The Pirates seem to be drafting according to a plan rather than an attachment to individual players. That doesn’t preclude the drafting of a guy who is a consensus elite talent (Alvarez in 2008), but they don’t seem to buy into hype around players at all, and ESPECIALLY hype around prep players. Obviously they do spend some money on preps, but it’s not because they necessarily think so-and-so is a “special” player.
I guess the point I’m trying to make is . . .they might go for a high-impact prep player at the top of the draft, but if it doesn’t fit into the plan, that’s not the way they’re going to go.
They will draft...
Bryce Harper if he is availale. He is a better talent than Dustin Ackley was and the Pirate’s FO came out and said publicly before the draft that if either Strasburg or Ackley was available they would be taken. He could rise to the majors quickly for a prep player and would fit in good with the Pirates no matter what position he plays when he makes it.
Also, the Pirates are said to have came to terms with three other draftees for an above slot price and each player later turned it down because MLB was slowing the signing process down to keep players from signing over slot bonuses too soon. They may have spent less in the draft than the previous year, but it was only because MLB screwed them over.
Also, the whole Sano business is pure crap. Sano’s agent never gave the Pirates a chance to outbid the Twins because he said the Pirates Latin America scouting director had too close of relationship with his client and it was affecting his clients decision making.
Alvarez
I think he drafted him despite his K rate and evidently poor range. I think they believed in the bat and took him, who would want their FO to spend their top pick and all the money it takes to sign them on a complete wild card?
While I think their draft strategy this past year could have been better, they did sign several high risk/high reward guys later for cheaper bonuses with the money they saved from drafting Sanchez. My only problem with their strategy was they still gave Sanchez above slot (barely above slot but above slot never the less). The Nats took Storen and signed him to below slot I believe? I think that is what the Pirates were hoping to do, I don’t think it was a bad plan at all.
He has also said the money they left on the table ($10 mill was budgeted for each of his first 3 drafts) will be thrown into his draft budget for this year. Not that the draft class is overly talented but I would expect they take the type of prospect you would want with the #2 pick if they feel he is there. The Pirates can’t afford to miss too many more 1st round picks, they have very little room for error still. That is the difference between a small market team and a large market team. The Yankees can throw $8 mill at a draft pick and not even blink if he doesn’t reach AA. The Pirates on the other hand, that is a crushing blow to their development.
Fangraphs just put out a draft review for the Pirates.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pittsburgh-pirates-draft-review
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