BP's Indians Top 15
by larry on Nov 20, 2009 1:28 PM EST
69 comments
Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Jason Knapp, RHP
5. Nick Hagadone, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Jason Kipnis, OF/2B
9. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
10. Michael Brantley, OF
11. Zach Putnam, RHPFour More:
12. Jess Todd, RHP: Todd is a short, squat reliever acquired from the Cardinals, and one who reached the big leagues in short order, but his ceiling is probably as a seventh-, maybe eighth-inning set-up man.
13. Nick Weglarz, OF: Two years of non-performance have dropped him significantly, as a ton of walks can only get you so far. As a first baseman or left fielder, Weglarz needs to show more.
14. T.J. House, LHP: He was an over-slot lefty from 2008 who showed solid stuff in his full-season debut; he’s a good breakout candidate.
15. Jason Donald, SS: He's always been a bit overrated, and profiles best as a nice utility type....
The Sleeper: While his full-season debut was cut short by injury, 20-year-old Dominican outfielder Aber Abreu remains a bit raw, but his raw power ranks with nearly anyone in the system.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9784
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Alex White
The most important thing that I took from the entire Cleveland write-up is that they’ve dropped their silly plan of fast tracking him as a reliever. As a starter, Alex White is a lot more interesting.
by jar75 on Nov 20, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's some seriious depth.
When you have pitchers like Zach Putnam at #11, and TJ House at #14.
I like a lot of the guys in this system. I probably like Kipnis more than I should. Not a great ceiling, but I have to believe the kid will hit.
by acerimusdux on Nov 20, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention....
Alexander Perez and Jeanmar Gomez weren’t even in the top 15!
by Alex Trebek on Nov 20, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah those guys should be on the list
I’d also move House up the list
Generic Signature
by Gobroks on Nov 20, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who would you move down, though...?
Marson, I guess… maybe Kipnis…
by alskor on Nov 20, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carrasco
I don’t think he’ll figure it out as a starter
by Gobroks on Nov 21, 2009 3:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im not a huge fan, but Id have a hard time dropping him too much...
his stuff is pretty damn good and his results are pretty good. He doesnt thrill me, but I wouldnt be surprised to see him turn out as an above average SP at all…
by alskor on Nov 21, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I can see why a lot of people like him
I’m just not a fan
by Gobroks on Nov 21, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For what it’s worth, Goldstein said he considered making Chisenhall a 5 star.
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
by koolkerns101 on Nov 20, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Amen on Weglarz
I know Ive been beating this drum for a while now, but I still don’t see why people love that guy so much.
KG had this in the comments:
jonwakelin: Kevin – do you attribute Weglarz’s low BABIP (.249) more to luck or low skill level? He showed some good power and OBP skills (as you noted).Kevin Goldstein: It’s not like he’s showing crazy power. Guy has 26 home runs in last two years over 714 at-bats. It’s been two bad years, he’s a non-athlete and for what he is, he has to mash, and he’s not mashing.
by alskor on Nov 20, 2009 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Weglarz is supposed to be an extremely slow runner, bordering on Flores' level
so the low BABIP is not really unexpected but is still a bit low. He is only going to be 22 next season, probably repeating AA. He is also very raw coming from Canada and I think he projects for more power. The eastern league is not exactly a hitter’s haven also. I can see him hitting .200 ISO in the MLB, maybe more in his prime. His walks are the key though, a projected line of .260/.380/.480, in the MLB is pretty good. That is a likely outcome in my opinion, if he makes it, and he can potentially walk more with Nick Johnson-esque MILB numbers.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 20, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His power will look better if his BABIP improves
Since some of those extra balls dropping in for hits will be doubles, etc.
That said, his HR power still leaves something to be desired for the kind of hitter he is. If he can improve his K rate some more like he did this season, though, it may not be a big deal. As you said, Akron is most definitely a pitcher’s park, as well.
by oplaid on Nov 20, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd make Rondon a four-star
I know this is nitpicking, but I think Rondon should a four star prospect. As a 21 year old, he posted 4.56 (15G-AA) and 4.92 (12G-AAA) K/BB rates and excellent FIPS (2.51 at AA and 3.56 at AAA). I think he compares similarly to Daniel Hudson who was a 4 star prospect (Hudson’s closer to the big leagues, but a year older). I’ll be interested to see how John likes Rondon.
by Alex Trebek on Nov 20, 2009 2:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
terrible ranking imo.
how is Hagadone above him?
by daveh33 on Nov 20, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Goldstein is all about tools/ceiling
So it’s consistent with his philosophy that he prefers a lefty with more velocity and a better breaking pitch.
by jibs on Nov 20, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
brantley 3 star?
He had a great yr in AAA w/plus speed, obp, avg, and defense. the onlydrawback is the power, but seems likeeverything else isabove avg to plus eventually.
Trade recap
Lee deal, 4*, two 3* (3 top 10 prospects and 1 @15)
Vmartdeal- 1- 4*, masterson, price unranked
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 20, 2009 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
three star is not an insult
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 20, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brantley...
If .267/.350/.361 qualifies as a “great year,” we’ve let our standards for offense slip a great deal. Brantley has impressive tools and controls the strike zone well, but the list of guys who can succeed at the major leagues with zero power is very, very short. Brantley’s never posted a .100 ISO in 5 minor league seasons. He can be a useful 4th or 5th outfielder as a guy with a good glove and some speed, but I look at Michael Brantley and all I see is a slightly younger version of this guy with major league bloodlines.
by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He didn’t have a great year in AAA and I don’t think he’ll be superstar, but he’s really young (turned 22 mid season), had an incredibly unlucky .288 BABIP (considering his speed) and stole 46 bases.
by Alex Trebek on Nov 20, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brantley
I think it is safe to say Brantley is a little more than “slightly younger” than Jamal Strong.
by bereasonable on Nov 20, 2009 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I meant...
slightly younger than Strong was when he put up a very similar year in Triple-A and was considered a fringe prospect.
by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brantley/Strong
Different development path.. Brantley made his debut at 22, Strong at 25. Brantley has always been young for his levels. Even if he does end up a 4th OF, with his skills I can envision him being one of the better ones around. Success in MLB does not mean becoming a star. I see nothing that indicates he will cannot have a productive career.
by bereasonable on Nov 20, 2009 5:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Show me...
a list of guys who failed to put up an ISOp of .100 in a single minor league season who have had any value in MLB other than as a defensive replacement. Even Michael Bourn, slap-hitter extraordinaire, showed more power in the minors than Brantley. Strong was older in his triple-A season, but he had the exact same skill set, and that skill set doesn’t profile well at the major league level.
Guys who control the strike zone in the minors without any power whatsoever get killed in the majors. Major league pitchers will have no reason to walk Brantley because they’ll know he can’t punish balls in the strike zone. There’s a reason Brantley’s BB-rate in the majors was nearly cut in half from his Triple-A number, and it wasn’t jitters.
by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's...
overstating it a bit. I should say show me a guy who’s never ISO’d > .100 in the minors who has value as more than a defensive specialist. There are definitely guys out there whose gloves are good enough to warrant regular playing time even when they swing a candy cane at the plate. Elvis Andrus comes immediately to mind (though he’s still ISO’d near .100 in his age 16/17 seasons).
My point is, I don’t see Brantley as a guy with any offensive potential whatsoever.
by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brantley.
If a guy like Tom Goodwin can pile up 4315 AB, I cannot see why Brantley couldn’t do the same. I think saying he has zero offensive potential and coming to that conclusion when a player is 22 and already in MLB is somewhat reckless. Time will tell, but I don’t think Brantley is simply a defensive replacement. I also don’t think he will be an above average player, but there is a large space between those two categories.
by bereasonable on Nov 20, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If...
Tom Goodwin is the best you can do, we don’t disagree. Nobody’s arguing Brantley won’t be able to get playing time. When we’re talking about whether he’s a good prospect or not, though, the question is whether or not he can ever develop into a player who can help a team contend. From your posts, your appraisal of Brantley’s upside is either second division starter, or good 4th outfielder. If you don’t think he’s a potential above average major leaguer, you’re saying he’s not a guy who has any business as a starting outfielder on a good team. A guy with upside that limited just isn’t a very good prospect.
by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Goodwin
He is simply a guy I came up with off the top of my head. His career is one you never addressed at all, as if he was totally useless. You claim he “won’t be productive” and
he does not have “any offensive potential whatsoever”, essentially basing these claims simply on the lack of one tool. I think we just see players differently in that a player can be productive on offense without power.
by bereasonable on Nov 20, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tom Goodwin
was a very, very bad hitter. He had no business playing as a regular for a team that wanted to win baseball games. The two times he started for teams that made the playoffs, it was because they had enough good bats to hide him at the end of their lineup, not because he was any good. I’m not sure what your point is here. Yes, Goodwin had a couple seasons out of his 14 where he drew a few walks. First of all, he still wasn’t any good, second, one sort-of exception doesn’t prove that these guys aren’t absolutely horrible bets to succeed, and third, again, if that’s Brantley’s upside, how on earth are you arguing that he’s a good prospect? Your 1-in-100 fluke had a career wOBA of .310. Even with amazing defense that’s not a good player. If that’s even a rough approximation of what you think Brantley’s upside is, that’s really not a convincing argument.
“Lack of one tool” is a little misleading, considering offensive potential is basically broken into 3 tools: contact, power, and patience. Even that’s misleading, since a guy with zero power who shows patience in the minors virtually always loses that patience in the majors, because major league pitchers have absolutely no reason to fear leaving a ball out over the heart of the plate. Brantley’s skills don’t project well at the major league level unless he develops enough power for pitchers to treat him like a legitimate threat when he steps into the batter’s box. He doesn’t need above average or even average power, but he needs to be able to make pitchers think he can a meatball with authority to have any chance of a good major league career.
by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Typical prosept hound approach
Most people who follow prospects with any regularity seem to have only two categories for players… star or scrub. They fail to realize that a player can be a worthwhile contributor without being a household name. Teams aren’t comprised of star players or above average players only. Brantley being listed as a three star is reasonable and not out of line in my opinion, and this was the ranking that KG assigned him. What ranking do you personally think he should be given ? How many stars? A poor player will not linger in MLB for thousands upon thousands of AB. How many do you think Brantley ends up with?
by bereasonable on Nov 21, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, a few things
First of all, generally the tradeoff is upside for certainty when you’re looking at future role players. Brantley, as you’ve explained, has very limited upside. My posts were meant to show that he doesn’t have a whole lot of certainty, either. Guys who hit for as little power as he does face really steep odds of ever becoming more than a 25th man on a MLB roster.
Second, might want to know who you’re talking to before you start name-calling. I’ve extolled the virtues of guys with limited upside time and time again on this cite. I’m one of the only guys around this site who will extoll the virtuies of low-risk medium reward guys like Matt Joyce, Luis Valbuena, Adam Moore, Nolan Reimold, etc and who will argue that these guys are getting systematically overlooked by people who look exclusively at upside.
Last, keep in mind, the original poster was arguing that Brantley deserves more than 3 stars. That’s how the whole discussion started. There’s no way in hell Brantley deserves to be in any kind of top-100 prospect discussion. I don’t think it would take me very long to list 300 minor leaguers I’d rather have in my system.
Personally, I think Brantley’s got 4th outfielder upside and could potentially catch on as a regular for a bottom-dwelling team. His downside is a long career bouncing between Triple-A and the Mexican Winter League. That shouldn’t excite anyone unless they’re looking for a late-round pick who can steal some bases in a ROTO league.
by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
We do agree for the most part, but I am curious….what name were you called in my post?
by bereasonable on Nov 21, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brantley Comp
Ellsbury (1017 minor league AB’s) 275/356/379
Brantley (1880 minor league AB’s) 302/389/372
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by ProspectTube.com on Nov 22, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Um...
I don’t know where you got those numbers, but Ellsbury’s career minor league line is .314/.390/.426.
by slamcactus on Nov 23, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury...
also A) has ridiculous speed and baserunning skills that Brantley can’t even come close to approximating, and B) is also pretty overrated by virtue of his very strong major league debut and the fact that he plays for the Red Sox. He’s a solid player, but he isn’t a star in any world other than ROTO.
by slamcactus on Nov 23, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Park/League Adjusted Lines
Just a hunch, but something tells me Ellsbury’s .500 bapip at Portland wasn’t going to be sustainable.
I agree with you B statement, and pointing out that Brantley could be on a similar path. A solid player, not an all-star, positive contributor while under team control. And yes, he too could be an impact fantasy type with strong avg/SB numbers.
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by ProspectTube.com on Nov 24, 2009 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury
That BABIP was over 83 at-bats. I don’t know where you’re getting the multipliers to adjust for park and league, but I’m really skeptical of any park adjustment that dings the ISO of a guy who played most of his minor league career in Lowel, Wilmington, and Portland.
Even if I were to suspend disbelief and agree with you that your park-adjusted line reflects Ellsbury’s “true talent” (for the record, I don’t until you show me the translation you used), you’re comparing a guy with a career .104 ISO to a guy with a career .067 ISO. That’s a really significant difference.
by slamcactus on Nov 24, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I took the numbers from minorleaguesplits
Suspend disbelief? Wow.
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by ProspectTube.com on Nov 24, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Look at that minorleaguesplits translation again. They neutralized Ellsbury’s BABIP to .306. That’s roughly average, and you can’t apply an average BABIP to a guy who hits far more GB/LD combined (and fewer fly balls) than most players. Not to mention Ellsbury’s speed.
So, minorleaguesplits’ standard multiplier has Ellsbury’s BABIP at .306. In 1,155 minor league plate appearances, it was .354, and in 1,429 major league plate appearances, it’s sitting at .329. That’s a pretty large sample size that says that minorleaguesplits’ translation numbers are horseshit as they apply to this particular player.
I’m sorry, but your use of statistics is absolutely awful here.
by slamcactus on Nov 24, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
translations
I agree, the 306 number is low for a guy like ellsbury. But getting back to the main point I made, when I compared their translated lines, there wasn’t a huge difference in the two using minorleaguesplits numbers. I realize the 306 is not accurate, but even if you adjust to to something more reasonable (and not 354), I still see similar career paths for the two.
If Ellsbury was playing in Cleveland and Brantley in Boston, you’d be hearing how Brantley is the 2nd coming of Fred Lynn while Ellsbury was simply a “nice young player.”
Either way, I don’t see either of them making all star games, but both should be valuable while under club control.
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by ProspectTube.com on Nov 28, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No...
Like I said above, even if you accept those translated lines as truth, a .104 ISO is worlds ahead of a .067 ISO. It’s the difference between having enough pop to instill confidence that a guy can handle himself in the majors and being a guy that major league pitchers will carve up.
I understand the underlying premise. It’s wrong.
by slamcactus on Nov 28, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No...
You seem committed to your ISO argument, but digging a little deeper, may prove it to be faulty. For example, Ellsbury was older than Brantley at pretty much each stop. His 83AB stint in Portland where his BAPIP was an insane .500 really sticks out as the ISO outlier (0 HR’s too).
If you evaluate both players during their last minor league stop, where they played in the same league for a full season (Ellsbury was still one year older), you’ll see that Brantley actually outperformed Ellsbury in the all important ISO category, .094 to .083.
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by ProspectTube.com on Nov 30, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brantley, who has always been young for his level, always improves on his ISO the second year he’s at level. From ‘06 to ’07 at A ball his wOBA went from .363 to .398 and his ISO went from .039 to .107. From ’07 to ’08 at AA ball his wOBA went from .323 to .372 and his ISO went from .043 to .079. In his first year at AAA, he posted a .334 wOBA and .094 ISO…. I also don’t think that citing a 112 AB cameo at the major league level is a compelling argument that he won’t walk much in the majors (anyways how many people mash right after they get called up for the first time?). You’re right that hitters without any power whatsoever have trouble maintaining good walk rates in the majors, but I think Brantley has room for growth considering his youth.
by Alex Trebek on Nov 20, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A few things
Improving from god-awful to merely horrible isn’t particularly impressive. Nothing in Brantley’s track record or scouting profile suggests he’ll ever develop adequate enough power to keep major league pitchers honest. 121 plate appearances isn’t a huge sample, but batted ball profiles and BB/K stabilize a lot quicker than rate stats like BA/OBP/SLG do. Major League pitchers are a whole lot better than Triple-A pitchers, and if Brantley can’t show major league pitchers he can make them pay for pounding the strike zone, there is absolutely no reason to think he’ll ever be able to draw a lot of walks at the major league level. Chris Dial and Dave Cameron have researched this question pretty extensively. The ability to draw a lot of walks with zero power just doesn’t translate to the major leagues.
Yes, Brantley’s young, but 22 isn’t the kind of “ridiculously young for his level” age that causes you to overlook serious, gaping flaws in a guy’s game. If Brantley was 19 in Triple-A I wouldn’t care so much that he’s never shown any power at any point in his career, ever. As a 22 y/o, it’s a big problem.
Brantley may have “room” to develop in the same sense that it’s possible for anyone to completely re-invent themselves and develop brand-new skills, but any power Brantley ever develops will be an out of nowhere fluke the way Melvin Mora becoming a .340 hitter was earlier this decade. As of today, there’s absolutely no reason to believe he has the combination of physical abilities and skill to develop adequate power. Without that, he almost certainly won’t be a productive major leaguer.
by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would tae Rondon...
over everyone but Santana. His stuff is just flat out filthy and he is the only one in the system right now who could I think has a decent chance at becoming an “ace”.
by joegonzo on Nov 20, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
explanation
“13. Nick Weglarz, OF: Two years of non-performance have dropped him significantly, as a ton of walks can only get you so far. As a first baseman or left fielder, Weglarz needs to show more.”
Not quite as good as your counter-argument of “wtf?”, admittedly, but the man may have a point.
by mrkupe on Nov 20, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no.
he had as many hot months as Pedro alvarez did.
wOBA of .438 in May, and .425 in June. the only months he recorded at least 100 AB. a wOBA of .373 in 94 July ABs…. he had a bad bad April…. so what? in August he was also bad but I think it was the injury affecting him.
I’m sorry but this list is terrible. Weglarz gets no love. his BABIP for the year was .249 .
he straigh tore the shit out of the ball for 2 healthy months after a bad april, then he had a good July, then he battled injury. tell me how this year was “non-performance” . str8 bullshit
by daveh33 on Nov 20, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
his .373 wOBA in July came with a .211 BABIP
he was essentially the Jay Bruce of the minors in 09.
and with a 75/78 BB/K ratio
he also brought his ISOP way up after the carolina league last year, as he should have, while improving his BB% from 15.6 to 17.6 %.
his BABIP went from .323 08 to .249 in 09 and yet he only lost .009 in wOBA
by daveh33 on Nov 20, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Pedro Alvarez keep being brought up...
he is a better hitter than anyone in the Indians organization and an argument can be made that he is a better prospect than Carlos Santana.
by joegonzo on Nov 20, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This, but I will take Santana over Alvarez.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 21, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i keep bringing him up
because everyone acts like he’s such a sure thing. he tore the cover off the ball for a couple months… so did Weglarz. that’s my point. Alvarez still has conditioning/defensive/LHP question marks. and he looked terrible at the futures game
by daveh33 on Nov 21, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Big differences.
Alvarez had conditioning problems . In other words, he came into camp 10 pounds heavier than he should have been. Weglarz doesn’t have “conditioning problems,” he has “this guy’s not athletic enough to play the field” problems. As Alvarez got into shape he started looking better at 3B. If he has to move to 1B, he’ll probably be a pretty good glove there. Weglarz is an immobile guy who needs to mash in order to succeed. I see no problem ranking a 1B/DH really low after a piss-poor offensive season if scouts are questioning the bat.
If scouts were telling Goldstein that Weglarz was making consistent hard contact and getting robbed, that information would have made its way into the scouting report. Sometimes, though, a .249 BABIP is just evidence that a guy really isn’t making solid contact.
by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
then explain his ISOP and wOBA for the majority of his ABs
it wasn’t close to “piss-poor”. stop saying that it is, because it is straight up false.
by daveh33 on Nov 21, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't explain it...
because I wasn’t there. I will say, though, that there’s a HUGE range in quality in Double-A pitching. It’s absolutely possible for a guy with a slow bat to struggle against guys with good fastball velocity while crushing the guys who throw 87-90mph.
Stop using minor league wOBA as if it means something. wOBA is the best stat around to measure a hitter’s value retrospectively. For projecting minor leaguers, it’s beyond useless.
by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
“stop saying that it is” is a little weird. That was my first post on Weglarz.
by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that was more of a general statement, not necessarily to you
i should have clarified
by daveh33 on Nov 21, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what do you want me to use? here's what BA said when he was hitting
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2009/268445.html
notice the #1 ranking…
by daveh33 on Nov 21, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well I guess that proves it.
Not really sure what it is, but…yeah. I don’t think Weglarz is a non-prospect, but I think ‘09 raises some major red flags. For a guy with his lack of athleticism, you pretty much need no red flags at all to consider him a top prospect. I don’t have a problem with Goldstein’s ranking here.
by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what red flags?
a bad april and an injury-riddled august?
did you watch the futures game? he doesn’t look as unathletic as is reported.
by daveh33 on Nov 21, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You...
seem to view these month-to-month splits as entirely distinct. I’m as big a fan at looking at in-season trends as any, but we’re talking sample sizes of less than 90 at-bats here. The aggregate ended up with pretty mediocre numbers from a guy who will need to derive all of his value going forward with his bat. The red flag is that when you look at the entire season, Weglarz didn’t hit very well. You can’t look at his 2 good months and pretend April didn’t happen, and his August injury doesn’t explain his July slump.
He may have just gotten unlucky on balls in play this year, but that very rarely tells the whole story when a guy fails to hit .230 in the minors. Hitter BABIP is nowhere near as prone to random fluctuation as pitcher BABIP is, and you usually don’t see a BABIP that low in the minors on bad luck alone. I’m not convinced Weglarz is done by any stretch, but if you’re looking at his 2009 as some sort of proof that he’s still a blue-chip offensive prospect, I think you’re looking through rose-colored glasses.
by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about 26 home runs in last two years over 714 ABs?
For a guy who is going to have a ton of his value tied up in his power.
Also, you’re the only person Ive ever heard who isnt concerned about this guy’s lack of athleticism. I saw the futures game. He’s not Bengie Molina, but he’s not quick and not much of an athlete.
…and wouldn’t “an injury-riddled august” BE a red flag by itself…?
by alskor on Nov 22, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on the injuries
He’s a big guy that’s already had back troubles and has missed a lot of time due to multiple broken bones by the age of 22 (and he’ll now have a metal rod in his leg to boot). These could be just a series of random flukes, but at the same time it’s a trend that means he’ll have some risk factor associated into his prospect value.
by jibs on Nov 22, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im not overly concerned about it, really...
Just that if someone said the guy had a bunch of red flags come up this year I wouldnt go listing “injury riddled month” as one of the reasons he did NOT have red flags…
by alskor on Nov 22, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Santana
i’ve heard he is a pretty good guitar player too.
by jahs34 on Nov 21, 2009 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jason Kipinis...
at 2B could be big imo.
by Havok1517 on Nov 22, 2009 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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