BA Astros Top 10
by rdf8585 on Nov 20, 2009 11:47 AM EST
30 comments
TOP TEN PROSPECTS1. Jason Castro, c
2. Jiovanni Mier, ss
3. Jordan Lyles, rhp
4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp
5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp
6. Ross Seaton, rhp
7. Tanner Bushue, rhp
8. Jay Austin, of
9. Jon Gaston, of
10. T.J. Steele, of
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Jason Castro
Best Power Hitter Jon Gaston
Best Strike-Zone Discipline J.B. Shuck
Fastest Baserunner Jay Austin
Best Athlete Jay Austin
Best Fastball Arcenio Leon
Best Curveball Ashton Mowdy
Best Slider Sammy Gervacio
Best Changeup Jordan Lyles
Best Control Fernando Abad
Best Defensive Catcher Jason Castro
Best Defensive Infielder Jiovanni Mier
Best Infield Arm Jiovanni Mier
Best Defensive Outfielder T.J. Steele
Best Outfield Arm Yordanny Ramirez
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As an avowed Jiovanni Mier advocate
I’m pleasantly surprised to see how much BA likes him. Time to clear room on the bandwagon I guess!
I’m still somewhat surprised the Nats didn’t at least consider drafting him at #10. He would have been an easy sign at slot there, he fits in great with the organizational philosophy, and he’s a very nice prospect generally speaking.
by mrkupe on Nov 20, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This team is in trouble in the near future. At least their two top prospects are at the two most important positions on the field. The question is; How does this team find a way to compete over the next few years, while still building a farm-system? I’m not sure it can be done. Right now would be a good time to sell high on Oswalt, perhaps acquiring a few high-upside arms in return.
by wanderinredsfan on Nov 20, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oswalt isn't exactly a sell High
Many GM’s are going to weary of giving up top talent for a pitcher who has had 2 seasons that he hasn’t been completely himself. He ended last season on the DL with back problems which reportedly are managable but you never know. He also has publicly said he is considering retirement as soon as his current contract is over so there isn’t much hope of extending him further. Oswalt also has a no-trade clause and has a very short list of teams he would waive it for.
As far as competing is concerned…it will be very difficult. There are two great young OF’s with Pence and Bourn. Berkman and the future catcher with Castro. Consistent batting and horrible defense with Lee, an improving rotation with oswalt, wandy, and bud norris, and a handful of underappreciated relievers. As soon as a probable bad season is over in 2010, Kaz will come off the books and give us a little more room to move under the budget. It will be bleak for a few years unless a few young guys have career years.
by Subber10 on Nov 20, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not totally sure Norris is a starter
Raw stuff is pretty good, nice velocity on the fastball and a very good slider. Watched him a lot during his time in Houston and his fastball command is pretty erratic, forcing him to use his slider to get strikes. Durability has been an issue in the past so maybe he was just getting tired.
His physical profile, repertoire, and numbers basically make him a clone of Jeremy Bonderman. Lots of potential but I’m guessing he’s going to be rather streaky as a starting pitcher. Convert him to the pen and I think he might be one of the best closers in the game in short order, though.
by mrkupe on Nov 20, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pence
i was going to post about how I consider Pence and Bourn “good” rather than “great” young players, and something caught my eye: Hunter Pence has put more than 50% of his balls-in-play on the ground the past 2 years. His HR/FB is exactly what you’d expect from a young slugger with his profile (16%), but his approach has him putting the ball on the ground with almost the same frequency as Ichiro the past 2 seasons.
I usually don’t think hitting instructors play much of a role in player development once guys reach the majors, but for the love of God, the Astros need to teach this kid that he’s not a slap-hitter.
by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 21, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably
Because they’re better prospects.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Nov 21, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was profound.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 21, 2009 2:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised to see...
Austin ranked that highly. Not sure what kind of upside they see. They have to be saying he is a C+ guy, and an above average C+ guy at that to rank him that highly. There is a decent amount of young depth on this team outside these guys that are almost locks to be C+ guys. To be ranked ahead of all of them, probably (hopefully) says more about how highly they see Austin than how badly they think of the rest of the team.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 20, 2009 8:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
lotta upside
Very nice tools and very young, having played almost the entire year at age 18. He was extremely raw coming into this year and made solid progress despite the aggressive push to full season ball. His numbers are actually quite respectable in context.
Here’s to hoping he takes the Jordan Schafer development path. Austin doesn’t have that kind of pop but he could certainly be a good one.
by mrkupe on Nov 21, 2009 2:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lyles has the best changeup in the system???
to go along with his 93 to 96 touching 97 mph fastball??
wow this kid is going to become great then..
by matthewmafa on Nov 20, 2009 9:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Per the report…“Lyles’ fastball sits at 89-91 mph”
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
by koolkerns101 on Nov 20, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He throw either a 2seam or a cutter that sits there and is his primary fastball but he does throw a 4seam that can touch the mid 90s
by Subber10 on Nov 20, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't buy that 89-91, but who knows...
Either way, I love me some Lyles.
To have that kind of command, size, athleticism, youth…
Holy eroticism.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 21, 2009 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
today was just terrible list day. for BP and BA
by daveh33 on Nov 21, 2009 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
Because you’re so much smarter than they are.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Nov 21, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, you can reject reality, but daveh can't even express his opinions?
How commendable…
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 21, 2009 2:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't get this.
BA (who historically grossly OVER-estimates pitcher velocities) says he’s 89-91. Project Prospect says he’s pretty much the same. Both of these places have multiple very reliable sources who saw Lyles multiple times throughout the course of an entire season.
Where are your sources?
by mrkupe on Nov 21, 2009 2:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ask BA - July 13th, 2009 - Jim Callis
Lyles’ fastball sat in the high 80s for much of last spring, but he pitched at 90-96 mph in his debut and has shown similar velocity this year.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/268554.html
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 21, 2009 3:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that is exceptionally vague
It doesn’t say anything about where he sat and how often he was pitching at the lower and higher ends of that range.
I mean, it COULD mean that he was pitching at 92-94 and touching 96 . . .or it could mean that he was throwing 90-92 (pretty much the same as the 89-91 figure BA posted the other day) and occasionally jumping higher. And based on what the sources are saying right now, doesn’t that inform your opinion as to what that earlier statement actually meant?
I don’t doubt the projection is there for a bit more velocity, but we really don’t have to look at the numbers and say “well, with numbers like those the guy MUST be throwing smoke”. Lyles would certainly not be the first command guy with solid average pitches capable of posting big numbers. It doesn’t make him a bad prospect obviously . . .it just doesn’t make him an uber-prospect, which seems to be the point of contention here.
by mrkupe on Nov 21, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lyles
Multiple sources say he’s high 80s – low 90s this past season, so I’ll believe that for now. We also know he is capable of hitting the mid 90s, also good. BA is now telling us he has the best changeup in the organization — it must be at least ML average then right? His stuff is good, his command is better and he still has plenty of projection. Maybe he’s not a #1 or #2 like we would have liked but he’s a solid #3 type prospect… us beggers can’t be choosers.
by byronlhsdrmr on Nov 21, 2009 10:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
#3 types don't do what Lyles did in low-A at age 18
generally speaking
by daveh33 on Nov 21, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Two relievers in the top 5?
Both lacking true closer type stuff — ugh.
by byronlhsdrmr on Nov 21, 2009 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
On the bright side
They do have Gervacio as closer in the “projected” 2013 roster (not that that means anything). Additionally, they give weight to how close players are to the majors. Since Gervacio is already there (and experienced success) and Lo could be a September callup in ’10, their status receives a boost.
That said, you would like to see more position players and/or SP in the top 10. There were multiple factors, but one thing that hurt the guys below them is their inexperience. If the other guys had entered the system a year earlier, Lo and Gervacio probably wouldn’t be as high. But, that’s just reflective of how low the system had gotten. Next year’s top 10 should have a different makeup.
by astrosfan76 on Nov 21, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I expected Jen-Lo to be top 6
He was terrific this past year. Gervacio is a bit of an enigma for me. He’s been around for awhile. He’s been hittable. His ERA always seems high. Then he came in September and was great. I don’t know what to expect for next season. Apparently he has a great slider and I’m going to guess he can hit 93 on the gun, I’m also going to guess he struggles with command.
The starting pitching is bad. Seaton was disappointing for me in his first full season. Hopefully he rebounds next year and shows some better stuff — and a better K/9. Where do they put him though? Lancaster? There’s no way he jumps straight to CC after his not-stellar season. Lyles I of course love, but I am afraid he’s not the top of the rotation starter we all want him to be. My question: is his ranking third more about Castro and Mier being great or about Lyles being lackluster? I love Bushue as well, thought he was a tremendous pick, but he is in the same place as Lyles and Seaton last season. Athletic, projectable solid stuff, needs to work on secondary pitches, I here he has advanced command (sounds a lot like Lyles actually). Obviously the downside is that he is so far away and was injured a lot in his half-season of pro ball. The rest of the Lexington staff gets no mention. Why? Cause they’re overachievers, can you really see Robert Bono or Kyle Greenwalt at the major league level one day? I hold some hope for Dydalewicz, Villar and David Duncan — Villar being a reliever of course, though.
by byronlhsdrmr on Nov 21, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The real question
The real anomaly in Houston with Gervacio was his GO/AO ratio. His K ratio is always high and his BAA was similar between AAA and Houston (.223-.219). Gervacio did a much better job keeping the ball on the ground at Houston, though. His GO/AO ratio was very strong at 2.89, while he’s usually closer to neutral. You are right to guess that his command is a struggle, BA wrote that he does have trouble commanding his FB in their last handbook. He also has a tendency to rely on his slider when a FB would work. He does have a great slider, though as I remember a story from ST a couple of years ago where Chipper Jones turned around to Ausmus and asked him “what was that?!” after a pitch.
I’m not too worried about Seaton. He didn’t strike out as many guys as people wanted to see, but there is value in knowing how to get guys out and not being afraid to pitch to contact. After him and Lyles, there are still other guys. Bushue you mentioned, though to add to it, he was diagnosed with a couple of stress fractures in his spine during the summer. It apparently wasn’t a new injury, as he missed some time during his HS season from his back. The upside to this is that it’s not something that will derail his career and he impressed the club enough despite the injury that they drafted him in the second round. It will be fun to see how he develops once healthy.
After those three, you still have Keuchel, who could be ready in ’11, Luis Cruz could be someone to watch, as is Fernando Abad, who they are stretching out as a starter in Winter Ball. Like Cruz, Juri Perez is a lower-level guy with good potential. He runs his FB at 88-93, sitting at 91, with a great change. Once he improves his curve, he could be a mid-rotation guy.
I wouldn’t write off Bono, either. His K/9 isn’t high, but he does a good job keeping the ball on the ground, rarely walks hitters (19 in 143+), rarely gives up HR (5), and is still only 20. Whether he develops into a big-league starter is debatable, but I wouldn’t really call him an overachiever, as you can find guys at any level with a similar profile who get similar results. Look at Derek Lowe’s minor-league stats sometime. He posted similar K/9 rates, similar H/9 rates, gave up few HR, but gave up about 2 more BB/9. Yet, Lowe has had a very good MLB career. Doesn’t mean he will be Derek Lowe, but he could.
by astrosfan76 on Nov 21, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You have to be a HUIGH homer to give this a B
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 21, 2009 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
HUGE*
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 21, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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