BA ATL TOP 10

This probably didn’t effect BA’s rankings much, but it’s worth noting that Delgado’s improvement doesn’t on the surface really seem to reflect as much of a change in underlying skills as we’d like. Looking at the monthly splits, it’s easy to conclude that a light went on in July. This probably has a little bit of truth to it, but not as much as you’d think from the surface stats. Here are the relevant peripheral numbers:

Pre-July 1:
K%: 25%
BB%: 10.7%
FB%: 27.3
HR/FB: 15.5

Post-July 1:
K%: 27.5%
BB%: 7.5
FB%: 26.3
HR/FB: 1.9

Note I’m not going into LD%, because minor league data on LD% is worthless.

The difference in K% between the first half and second half is 6 strikeouts over 265 batters faced. In other words, it MAY reflect a slight improvement in skills, but those rates are pretty close. The walk-rate is a pretty significant improvement, and we can probably assume reflects a bona fide uptick in Delgado’s control. The HR/FB, however, is all over the place. Major league average for HR/FB is around 11%, and minor leaguers hit far fewer home runs than major leaguers do. There’s probably a reason that a scout can give you for why Delgado stopped giving up home runs at a ridiculous rate (such as improving curveball command, which is usually a huge issue for guys prone to throwing meatballs), but the truth is that neither 15.5% or 1.9% could possibly be evidence of Delgado’s true ability to prevent the longball.

The reality of Randall Delgado’s 2009 season is a little more complicated than “he sucked in the first half, something clicked, and then he was lights out.” Delgado was never as bad as his first half ERA suggested, and while he improved a little, he wasn’t as good as his second half stats indicate, either. That leaves us somewhere in the middle. Understanding that, I don’t have much of a problem with people wanting to see more before labeling him as some kind of blue-chipper.

Matt Forman (who did the SAL Top 20): If I could have ranked a 21st player, it would have been Randall Delgado. Managers and scouts love his explosive fastball, which some had up to 96 mph this year. The biggest question marks were about his secondary stuff and his command. He’s got excellent deception out of his high three-quarters arm slot, and a nice projectable frame. I can see why people would have expected him to make the list, especially considering he’s 19 years old.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/10/2/1066709/no-braves-among-the-sally-leagues

i feel regardless is not strong enough…. needs more emphasis

Johnson was dreadful in those 6 games he played in Double-A. Completely overmatched in every way. His Double-A OPS was .462. It doesn’t mean anything for his prospect status, but you can’t have it both ways. If you give him credit for reaching AA, you have to look at what he actually did there.