Controversial Prospect - Kyle Drabek
Drabek is a prospect I've been extremely high on from the beginning of the year. One of my bold predictions coming into the year was Drabek leading the minors in K's. Well...
| Season | Team | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | ShO | SV | BS | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | WP | BK | SO |
|---|
| 2009 | Phillies (A+) | 4 | 1 | 2.48 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 61.2 | 249 | 49 | 19 | 17 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 74 | |
| 2009 | Phillies (AA) | 8 | 2 | 3.64 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.1 | 405 | 92 | 40 | 39 | 9 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 76 |
| Season | Team | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | FIP |
|---|
| 2009 | Phillies (A+) | 10.80 | 2.77 | 3.89 | 0.00 | .220 | 1.10 | .329 | 72.9 % | 1.82 |
| 2009 | Phillies (AA) | 7.10 | 2.90 | 2.45 | 0.84 | .253 | 1.28 | .298 | 75.4 % | 3.83 |
By May it looked like a legit possibility. He was averaging 6+ innings a start, averaging 10.8 K/9. His K total projected if he stayed that same rate over the entire season would be 189 K's, which would have led to him winning the K title. Instead he got promoted to AA as a 21 year old in his first full season back from TJ surgery. From there, his K total plummeted, which worried many observers. But as stated in the line above, he was a 21 year old in his first season back from TJ surgery. These results should have pleased many people. Instead, he's being drastically underrated. He still kept very good control as well. The only concern is that along with the loss of K's, his hit rate went drastically up, a concern with his lower BABIP in AA. He did not allow a single homer in high A, surprising with him not being a groundball pitcher. Coming into the year his stuff was as followed as reported by BA:
Strengths: Drabek is on his way to having three average-to-plus pitches. His fastball has reached 95 mph during his comeback and sits in the low 90s, though he hasn't had to carry it deep into games yet. His hard curveball is rounding into above-average shape more consistently. The work he did in instructional league improved both his mechanics and his changeup.
His A+ Ball report at the end of the season:
Between his 93-94 mph fastball that touched 96 mph whenever he needed and a promising changeup and curveball that both project to be plus pitches, Drabek had the three-pitch repertoire to be a future No. 2 starter.
He also has excellent athleticism for a pitcher, no surprise for someone who could have been a top-three-rounds pick as a shortstop. He fields his position well, holds runners and has the ability to make adjustments to his delivery on the fly.
Drabek's biggest flaws are mainly minor issues. He sometimes relies too much on his secondary stuff instead of blowing hitters away with his fastball. Some managers believed he struggled to maintain his composure when he got into jams, but others thought his fiery mound presence worked to his advantage.
His AA report at the end of the season:
The Phillies threw Drabek's name around in midseason trade talks but kept him as he emerged as their top pitching prospect. The son of 1990 Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, Kyle overcame Tommy John surgery and threw a career-best 158 innings this season. He tired late as the workload caught up to him, but at his best he showed a tantalizing mix of three plus pitches to go with athleticism that makes him a dangerous hitter and adept fielder.
Drabek's fastball sits in the 90-93 mph range with life, and his curveball and changeup are inconsistent but both have flashed above-average, particularly his breaker. His curveball is sharp and late, but he needs to command both the fastball and curve better. He made great strides with his changeup while going through his Tommy John rehab, as well as with his maturity.
Scouts and managers generally lauded Drabek's competitiveness and fiery mound presence. They also admitted that it gets him in trouble at times. "He loves to compete," Reading manager Steve Roadcap said, "but he will have to learn to dial it back a bit."
He's easily a top 25 prospect, and a top 7 pitching prospect, if not higher.
0 recs |
32 comments
Comments
Read this.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 2, 2009 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I voted for Mejia at the time, but I’ve changed my mind at this point. Two primary points on that…
First, while Mejia’s tender age is certainly impressive, the age of pitching prospects is a bit overemphasized. Coming off TJ surgery and only having about 100 pro innings under his belt, Drabek is very nearly as raw as Mejia.
Second, the reports on Mejia’s secondary stuff are all over the place. Law likes his change up and curve ball, but BA doesn’t, and while he’s certainly got time to improve on his secondary offerings, there’s still the possibility that he turns into a back-end bullpen guy if they don’t end up coming around. Drabek’s present solid secondary offerings make him a great bet to stay in the rotation.
You can’t go wrong with either guy, and I’ll be the first to admit that Mejia’s upside is tantalizing. But I’d go with Drabek as the superior prospect by a smidge.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 2, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does Drabek compare to...
Tommy Hanson. I believe they had some of they same issues when they were in the lower minors and both have outstanding stuff. It will be interesting to see if Drabek develops into a Hanson type pitcher.
by joegonzo on Nov 2, 2009 3:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hanson Also
Has a wider pitch array. They seemed similar before he added the slider.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
by cwhitman412 on Nov 2, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hanson’s a tough comp for anyone, and I wouldn’t bet on Drabek ever reaching the heights that I expect Hanson to reach.
That being said, I think this is a great post. Drabek’s K rate in AA isn’t nearly the concern that many are making it out to be, as cwhitman explains; I mean, for a kid in his first full season coming off TJ surgery, the results were about all you could have hoped for.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 2, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I’m planning on doing a couple of these for guys people like more or less than me.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
by cwhitman412 on Nov 2, 2009 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
has anybody seen drabeks Splits for this year,,,,
the guy kills right hand batter while he cant get left hand batter out for shit…
by matthewmafa on Nov 2, 2009 5:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
2009 splits for Drabek
Drabek vs. LHB: .284 BAA — 8.0 K/9 — 2.6 BB/9 — 3.49 FIP — .351 BABIP
Drabek vs. RHB: .185 BAA — 8.4 K/9 — 3.0 BB/9 — 3.04 FIP — .246 BABIP
So if you’re really into batting average, then… yeah, you’re right that Drabek “cant get left handed batter out for shit.”
by PhillyFriar on Nov 2, 2009 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In AA:
Drabek vs LHB: .317 BAA 1.55 WHIP… 6 K/9
by matthewmafa on Nov 2, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, in AA
Drabek v. LHB: .317 BAA — 6.1 K/9 — 2.4 BB/9 — 4.45 FIP — .356 BABIP
Drabek v. RHB: .174 BAA — 7.6 K/9 — 3.2 BB/9 — 3.59 FIP — .213 BABIP
A platoon split to be sure, but the walk and strikeout numbers are very similar, and the vast majority of the split is BABIP-driven.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 3, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BABIP
When a guy gets killed, his BABIP is often high. BABIP isn’t only a symptom of luck. It can also be a symptom of something else.
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Nov 3, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lack of decent changeup
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Nov 3, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, you’re right. But the scouting reports seem to like Drabek’s change up.
All I’m saying is that he’s not a ROOGY, which is what matthewmafa is trying to make him out to be. The similar BB:K numbers and the BABIP (while not entirely a product of luck, I grant) should indicate that at least.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 4, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't think he's that controversial
He’s got good velocity, a well-balanced repertoire of quality pitches with an out pitch, good command . . .a very strong package. My main concern with him isn’t with his drop in strikeouts at the higher level, but with the number of innings he pitched coming off of a lost season at his young age. Fatigue was obviously going to be a factor.
He does need to start next year in AA, but I expect him to be an excellent pitcher if the Phillies can keep him healthy. His competitive nature and good across-the-board stuff makes the obvious Roy Oswalt comp an unusually valid one.
by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2009 8:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
what a good comparison for Drabek??
he reminds me of John Lackey..
by matthewmafa on Nov 2, 2009 9:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Massively, massively overrated prospect
Does none of the controllable aspects of pitching particularly well. Statistical red flags all over the place, and an injury history to boot.
Almost certainly would not make my top 50, probably would not make my top 75.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 2, 2009 10:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think this needs more explaination
Which controllable aspects are you talking about? The K rate of about 8.5 or the walk rate under 3? Granted, he had TJ, but if anything his year coming back from TJ makes me more optimistic about his future rather than less. He is in my top 5 pitching prospects. No reason why he can’t be a very good starting pitcher.
Also, above, the Oswalt comp I don’t get too much, but I think the Lackey comp is pretty reasonable.
by rothe on Nov 2, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oswalt
Short righty with plus fastball and plus curve and very aggressive tendencies on the mound?
Drabek certainly shares some traits with Lackey as well, but if you think that Lackey is a better comp than Oswalt, you are paying WAY too much attention to strikeout rate.
by mrkupe on Nov 3, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not too similar to Oswalt...
other than his height. He reminds me of his dad : )
by joegonzo on Nov 3, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which K rate and walk rate are those?
They aren’t Drabek’s… unless you’re just counting this year, in which case get ready to get hammered for cherrypicking.
Any injury makes it more likely that a pitcher will reinjure himself. The only reasonably safe bets for pitcher health are guys like Dan Haren and Barry Zito who have basically never missed a start.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2009 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Um, which stats would you like to use, if not this year?
The 109.2 total innings he threw before this year across three seasons — which include 32.1 innings of rehab outings? Or maybe just the 23.1 inning GCL sample from after he was drafted back in 2006?
He threw 158 innings this year. It’s not a perfect sample size by any means, but it’s the best thing we have to go on in evaluating him statistically.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 4, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no good reason-- at all-- to dismiss the earlier innings
Having as little as 250 innings is bad enough, there’s no reason to throw another 2/5 of that out because it doesn’t square with your preconceived notions.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 4, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How is drawing a line of demarcation before and after TJ surgery — and the corresponding change in mechanics that accompanied the recovery — cherrypicking to fit my preconceived notions?
Or are you suggesting that it’s simply irrelevant when players make significant adjustments?
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the peripherals don't seem to match the stuff.
Or, maybe he’s more of a 90-93 guy, as suggested by that AA report.
Because, some people were saying he was 93-96 in high-A ball, and I started creaming myself.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 3, 2009 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll believe he was in that latter range
Touching, but not sitting there.
Still, that fastball should be just fine.
by mrkupe on Nov 3, 2009 2:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how a prospect
who likely will end up in the top 25-30 of all baseball is “underrated”.
by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 3, 2009 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Underrated To Some
See people such as Mr Paul Thomas.
And he’s not the only one. I’ve seen people not even thinking he’s top 30.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
by cwhitman412 on Nov 3, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gasp!
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 3, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know, right?
Apparently you’re not allowed to be controversial on a “controversial prospect” thread?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not a top 10 pitching prospect
I have him ranked close to but behind Mat Latos. I definatley wouldn’t compare him to Tommy Hansen.
by johnnycomelately9 on Nov 3, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mat Latos >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kyle Drabek
Too bad Latos went 2/3 innings above the threshold.
I would’ve liked to see where he would have ended up on the top 100s.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 4, 2009 2:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i hate the padres
but latos is very very good
by hirambocachica on Nov 4, 2009 3:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by 









