BA Reds Top 10
by rdf8585 on Nov 18, 2009 11:18 AM EST
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PrintTOP TEN PROSPECTS
1. Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2. Yonder Alonso, 1b
3. Mike Leake, rhp
4. Chris Heisey, of
5. Juan Francisco, 3b
6. Yorman Rodriguez, of
7. Travis Wood, lhp
8. Matt Maloney, lhp
9. Brad Boxberger, rhp
10. Zack Cozart, ss
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Yonder Alonso
Best Power Hitter Juan Francisco
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Yonder Alonso
Fastest Baserunner Theodis Bowe
Best Athlete Yorman Rodriguez
Best Fastball Brad Boxberger
Best Curveball Mike Leake
Best Slider Mark Serrano
Best Changeup Travis Wood
Best Control Matt Maloney
Best Defensive Catcher Chris McMurray
Best Defensive Infielder Miguel Rojas
Best Infield Arm Juan Francisco
Best Defensive Outfielder David Sappelt
Best Outfield Arm Yorman Rodriguez
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Weak
I’m really not much of a fan of this system. The talent seems to fall off a cliff after the first three, and the first three aren’t exactly elite.
Heisey...
is a pretty damn good prospect. Older than your typical blue-chipper, but he’s a lot better than most teams’ #4 prospects.
Yeah
Reminds me of the White Sox already… three top guys all have issues and arent real impact guys. The depth is certainly better here… but not great…
Tough call… Hudson/Flowers/Mitchell or Frazier/Alonso/Leake. Is the best guy of those six Hudson? Best upside is Mitchell, I would think. I don’t really like Frazier that much… he’s solid, but overrated and Im not sure where he fits in the majors. I like Leake a good deal, but he’s not a proven commodity. Alonso fell a couple notches this year for me.
I like the fist 4
I never was much a fan of Juan Francisco though, but the numbers he’s putting up so far at upper levels are somewhat proving me wrong. At least he’s better than I expected.
Give them a break...
They just graduated Bruce and Cueto lol..they really missed a chance to have a good farm system though by picking Alonso over G Beckham last year and taking Leake this year.
oh and Votto.
I actually think they have done a much better job developingplayers in the last 3-5 years.
Weak.... not quite
While I do agree the Reds lack some High Upside type talent, they still have guys with a high upside in Alonso, Hamilton, Rodriguez, Duran, Frazier and Francisco. Couple that with some high floor guys who are knocking on the door of the majors like Maloney, Wood, Heisey and Cozart and things are looking a little better. Then there are a ton of legit prospects in the lower levels who have good things going for them who you are probably missing out on most of them. There is a TON of depth in the system. Top end system? No. But its not a bottom feeder either.
Really? The Reds fan defends it?
I think this is a pretty weak list—bottom ten overall—but to be fair, if you take the big picture, players at any level 25 or under like Goldstein, their list looks a whole lot better.
Really
If we are soley looking at the top 10’s, then yeah, the Reds aren’t looking all that hot. But if we look at the entire farm system, then the Reds look quite a bit better. The Reds 11-40 prospect are a lot better than most other teams 11-40 prospects and that is where the system gets a solid boost.
True to a degree
I definitely like the number of lottery tickets in the Reds system once you get further down, but that can’t outweigh the weakness at the top, or the huge amount of risk in their top ten. Ultimately, in ranking farm systems, I’m not going to put nearly as much weight in prospects 11-40 as in the top guys. If your argument in favor of a farm system is the 11-40 guys, you’re in trouble.
Weakness in the top 10?
While they may not have the superstar potential of some other teams Top 10’s, the Reds top 10 is full of major leaguers and soon to be major leaguers (Alonso, Frazier, Heisey, Francisco, Maloney, Wood and Cozart could all see time in Cincinnati in 2010). That leaves question marks with Leake, Boxberger and Yorman Rodriguez. How many teams can say that? Does it count for something?
And while I am with you that the 1-10 brings them down, the fact that 11-40 is so good doesn’t mean they are in trouble, it just means they shouldn’t be claiming they are a Top 10 system. Depth counts quite a bit. Yeah, everyone wants a system like the Reds had in 2006 with Bruce, Bailey, Votto and Cueto…. but those systems just don’t come around too often. This system is built in a very different way than that one was.
I mean arguably the Reds have 5 Top 100 prospects with their top 5 depending on who you are asking. I bet Travis Wood would even fall into that category, so maybe you are talking about 6 guys now. Then there is the 11-40 guys that provide plenty of strong depth. That isn’t a system that is hurting in the slightest.
I still think you're overestimating
Yeah, a bunch of those guys are sure things to make the majors, but I see a lot of risk and not a ton of upside. Francisco has put up nice power numbers at high levels, but his utter lack of plate discipline will catch up to him at some point. Alonso’s platoon splits are a pretty big problem for a guy whose only real asset is his bat. Heisey crushed double-A as a 24 year old. I believe he’s a big leaguer, but I’m not terribly confident he’ll be more than a second division starter.
I guess I see a lot of guys who don’t project to be middle-back of the rotation starters or position players who raise a lot of concern for me, and I don’t see a lot of upside in the hitters beyond solid regular.
So yeah, to my eyes, it’s a farm system hurting in at least the slightest. You didn’t stop banging the drum for Neftali Soto until the universe begged you to stop by melting his bat. You might want to chill a little with the farm system as a whole.
Risk
Francisco has plenty of risk. His walk rate coupled with his strikeout rate is abysmal. That said, I have seen drastic improvements in the last 6 months in his pitch selection. He won’t likely ever walk 70 times in a year, but I fully believe he is well on his way to 40-50 walks a year which is plenty for the rest of his offensive game. Still, plenty of risk, but plenty of reward with him if it indeed works out.
Alonso’s splits aren’t concerning to me. The guy walked as often as he struck out against lefties as a pro. Guys that do that aren’t concerns for me.
With Soto…. I am still a believer. Power still rates out as a 65 on the raw power scale. He has a good swing. He has an above average contact rate. He was unlucky this year on his balls in play and his strikeout rate went up some, but was still pretty good. He will rebound just fine next year at the plate. His ‘luck adjusted’ line according to minorleaguesplits.com for 2009 was .312/.343/.443 in the FSL. Give him that normal luck and dude was pretty good, no?
Alonso doesn’t make contact or hit for power against lefties. Walking as often as he strikes out against them isn’t going to keep him from being a platoon player. At least Ryan Howard shows some power against lefties.
And again, I’m not saying someone like Francisco definitely won’t work out, but having him at number five isn’t pretty in my eyes.
Say what?
Alonso doesn’t make contact against lefties? He has 18 strikeouts in 113 pro PA against lefties (HWL stats not included since I can’t find the splits on them). That is a 15.9% strikeout rate, on his bad side. That is making contact against lefties. And yes, walking as often as you strike out against someone helps you from being a platoon player. It means that even if you aren’t hitting them well, odds are very good that you are still going to be finding first base in the 25% of your PA that come against lefties and that is what matters the most. It also tells you that the guy sees the ball very well out of the hand of lefties. That suggests with time he will begin to hit them just fine as well as continuing to find first base at a high rate against them.
Did you hate where Angel Villalona was ranked last year? Like absolutely no way he should have been close to that type of hate? Another guy with big power and questionable discipline…. except Francisco has shown that he can at least hit at the AA level with big power. I just don’t see how a guy with 70-75 raw power who is going to be in AAA with solid everything except walk rate at age 22 is outgrageous being at #5. If the guy adds 1 walk every week he is going to put up very impressive numbers.
Say what yourself.
You’re saying that if a guy finds first base in 25% of his PA against lefties, he’s not a platoon player?
And while I didn’t love Villalona being so high last year, it’s not fair to compare him to Francisco. Francisco held his own in rookie ball at 19 and hit for power in A-ball as a 20-year old. Going into last year’s rankings we were judging Villalona after he held his own in A-ball as a 17-year old. But Francisco has been accused of way fewer murders.
Not what I said
I was saying he will find base often in the 25% of his overall plate appearances that will happen to be against left handers (the other 75% come against right handers).
And I guess Francisco and Villalona as a comparison works for me because the skills at the plate seemed similar. Can hit lots of pitiches, but still miss a lot and look like they chased way too much. Defensively though, it wasn’t close. Francisco has a shot at playing both 3B or LF. Villalona was already at 1B because he was fat and out of shape. Age doesn’t mean much really because they were projecting to be similar hitters if neither improved the plate discipline…. the only difference was that Francisco had shown that his approach was not going to be eaten alive by more advanced pitchers just yet.
?
Two guys show similar flaws, but one of them has gotten two years older without improving it, so the tie goes to the older one? One of them is on a course to do better in age relative to league and you give the nod to the other? I don’t see it.
??
The walk rate in itself isn’t a flaw. It only becomes one when its coupled with a higher strikeout rate. Francisco has improved his K/BB every year of his career. The difference was, one guy showed he could still hit at the AA level and wasn’t able to be exploited by more advanced pitchers. That is why he gets the nod.
I like Neftali Soto
But I’m wary of what you say about him. For one thing, I have a little difficulty imagining that he has 65 power when his ISOP last year was .112 over more than 500 ABs. For another, to get those luck-adjusted stats, Soto’s BABIP had to be .368 – that is in line what his BABIP over the last 2 years, but I have difficulty believing that is his “unlucky” number. His BABIP last year was a little low (.286), particularly in conjunction with his LD rate, but not wholly out of the realm of possibility. Finally, his contact rate isn’t really above average – striking out 17.7% isn’t bad at all if he had good power, but it isn’t excellent either. It strikes me as being more or less average.
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by OldProspects on Nov 18, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
Soto
He was 20 and in the Florida State League. Also note that I said raw power, not current power. His current power is more in line with a 50.
And yeah, his BABIP would need to be high to reach that ‘luck adjusted’ rate, but that ‘luck adjusted’ rate is based on the types of balls he put in play and how often they go for hits in those leagues.
Fact is, you can’t adjust a contact rate for power or non power. Average is average. For his career the guy had an above average rate of contact and has hit for a lot of power when he wasn’t playing in the Florida State League where the number of guys saw there power disappear is around a million. Its like the opposite of the CAL League. If a guy doesn’t hit for power who always has in the past…. don’t worry about it much. Like the CAL League when a guy who has never shown power starts showing it… just wait until they leave the league and see how it goes.
So, in other words
He’s a really talented player who had a bad year in A+ ball but is still only 21. That seems pretty reasonable to me
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by OldProspects on Nov 18, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Talented offensively, yes
The FSL does funny things to hitters sometimes, even really good ones. Look at what Soto and Vitters did to the MWL. They tore it up. Look at what they did in the FSL. Look at what Ryan Braun did in the FSL and what he did everywhere else. When guys go through the FSL and struggle, I tend to pay more attention to their peripherals and scouting reports than the numbers they posted.
had they picked beckham over alonso....
they’d have an even weaker farm system right now
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 18, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Beckham
I think I grabbed him at that position in the shadow draft a few years ago. He is turning out to be a great pick.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 18, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Tripp (Atlanta)
Frazier over Alonso in BA’s latest Reds rankings? What’s the story, Jim?
Jim Callis (2:47 PM)
Bats are comparable and has more positional value.
high praise for Frazier
i almost had him and Yonder equal on my list… i definitely had a bit of a crush on Frazier for about a month in aug/july…. tried to temper that.
In the chat
It was asked where Stewart would rank if he had not been traded. The answer was anywhere from 1-3. I can’t believe Stewart is a better prospect than Leake. Seems like Leake is being underrated because he doesn’t have true top of the rotation stuff. I think if I was making the rankings I put him #1
Stewart
Stewart has a plus sinking fastball and a plus slider. He dominated A+/AA/AAA. Stewart is a better prospect than Leake for things like that. Not that Leake isn’t a very good prospect. He just can’t match what Stewart brings to the table in terms of stuff and at least for now, production.
But
Stewart looks headed to the pen. Unless he becomes an elite closer he won’t have the same value as a 2/3 starter.
thank goodness
At age 35, the best is yet to come from Scott Rolen…………
Stewart
may head to the pen for Toronto (may not), but most teams would put that kid in the rotation. Where Toronto puts him doesn’t change that he could be a starter and isn’t going to change his perceived prospect value to all teams.
Juan Fransisco
Can someone add some light on this guy? Do you guys pencil him in at 3b right now, or will he get time in the minors before being called up?
Reds may put him in LF
The Reds had him playing left field in instructional league. He has very little, but some experience there in the past. The Reds are very high on him. He will very likely start in the minors, but the biggest question is going to be where he plays, be it in LF or at 3B.
Yorman Rodriguez
Is it wrong that a 17 year old kid gives me a hard on? I am guessing ‘yes’.
Regardless, I love this kids tools and think that he will be an impact bat as he develops. Great work ethic and great tools will make him a special player. He is a LONG way from the big leagues but he is the perfect example of scouting over stats.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 18, 2009 6:30 PM EST reply actions
The guy I like better from that genre of player
(i.e. 16-17, big tools, long way off) is Rafael Rodriguez. He hasn’t shown as much power, but BA’s scouts seemed to think before the year that he had even more natural power than Yorman, and he showed much much better plate discipline (16 BBs vs 23 Ks in 127 ABs as opposed to Yorman’s 19:84 in 267 ABs).
Truthfully, though, of the teenage hitting prospects, my favorite isn’t a toolsy OF but Edinson Rincon
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by OldProspects on Nov 18, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yorman's K/BB
was MUCH better when he was playing in the GCL as opposed to facing 20-24 year olds in the Pioneer League. That said, Rafael was the Rodriguez who showed much better plate discipline. Yorman was solid in that department when he was 16 and in the GCL. When he went to the Pioneer League the more advanced pitchers ate him up…. of course they also had 4-6 years in age on him too.
That's a fair point
They’re both so far away that anything could happen. How would you compare these two to two other big tool very young Of prospects, Fernando Martinez and Jose Tabata?
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by OldProspects on Nov 19, 2009 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
Didn't get to see those guys
when they were 16, so I can’t say. I have gotten to see Yorman play 8 times as a 16 year old. Rafael, none.
I love Rafael Rodriguez
He has huge ability and should be a beast of a power hitter. I have a friend who works in the Giants scouting department who raves about his work ethic (first to the park, last to leave) and likens his upside to Vlad Guerrero. If he comes even close to that he will be special to watch.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 19, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
Work ethic
Its good to hear about something like that with someone that age who also has a known world of talent. When that kid puts on some weight he is going to kill some baseballs.
Any chance Sickels’ favorite Daryl Thompson will be anything more than a middle reliever at this point?
Wasn't he injured this year?
In which case, sure he could still be a SP
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by OldProspects on Nov 18, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yes he was injured
Again. For the 50th time in his career and he has already been under the knife for his shoulder. The odds of him being more than a reliever are very, very slim at this point.
How good is Maloney?
His numbers are good, but will they translate to majors that well.
#4 type of guy
Throws lots of strikes, no true out pitch, but no below average pitch either. I think his peripherals will be very JA Happ like. Higher than you would like HR rate because of the park and flyball tendencies, but few walks (likely lower than that of Happ) and a solid, but not great strikeout rate (lets say 16-18%).
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