Last year's rookies- #7 RUNOFF!
by Dalman on Nov 17, 2009 10:03 PM EST
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Well, we managed to make it through 6 rounds without a runoff. But not 7. Andrus and Rasmus are exactly tied with 24% of the vote, and nobody else is especially close, so we are going to have a runoff for the #7 slot.
I'll express my opinion here which is that Andrus hit as well last year as Rasmus, was younger than Rasmus and played a much more premium position and played it better than Rasmus. While it would be possible for all that to be true, yet for Rasmus to still be the better prospect I don't see enough to outweigh all those factors working for Andrus.
If you also want to use this thread to also express opinions on who the next few adds should be that would be helpful. I think I will get the ROYs on the ballot (back on the ballot in Coghlan's case) for round 8, but other than that I am open to suggestion.
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rasmus
i rather have a great hitting center fielder with Great defense then a SS who has great defense but not much offense
Me too
unfortunately we’re comparing Rasmus to Andrus, not the fictional players you’re talking about.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 18, 2009 5:37 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
HAHA
Great point. Rasmus is getting way too much love.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 18, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Rasmus has considerably more offensive upside that Andrus
and both are supposed to be above average defenders at their positions. Rasmus put up similar negative run numbers around -5 and plus defense around +10. However, Rasmus’ BABIP is way too low for a player with his speed and hitting LD 20 % of the time. He has considerable power potential in the minors, ex ISOs of .200, .180, .270, and .145. He also had an aggergate BB % of 10 % or higher since 2006. Andrus has neither of those two.
If both of them keep up the same defensive outputs over the length of their career, ignoring yearly deviations, Andrus would have the advantage due to the positional adjustment bonus for SS over CF. However, I do not see Rasmus staying even with Andrus on his offensive output in the future and that difference could easily be more than the meagre difference in positional value.
I think Rasmus is offensive potential is still under-rated while Andrus positional value is overstated in this comparison.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 18, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
nice job
say somethng and put nothing to prove your point… NICE
Who is that addressed to?
Kenan and Kel or your original comment? Because it accurately describes both comments.
What am I supposed to prove?
I simply refuted his hyperbolic assessment of Rasmus’ abilities and his haphazard analysis of Andrus’ offensive game.
If typing some numbers would untwist your panties I suppose I could do that.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 18, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
What?
I wasn’t saying you needed to say anything to refute his point. If he says something with nothing to prove his point than I don’t think there is any reason to take the time to try and prove his point wrong. I was just trying to point out how his insult directed at you could be applied to his original post just as easily. Chill out man.
Maybe I am not getting it
but Andrus had a better BA, LD%, OBP, BB%, K%, played the more important position, was much more dangerous on the base paths and is still 2 years younger.
Is the difference in slugging that much that it makes up for all of that?
Since WWII there have been 24 total season of a player coming up and getting atleast 400 at bats as a SS by age 21 like Andrus. Out of those seasons he would have placed 1st in SB, 10th in OPS, tied for 10th in BA, 11th in SLG%, and 10th in OBP.
That list includes Arod, Cal Ripken, Robin Yount (3), Wil Cordero, Jim Fregosi, Chris Speir, Zolio Versalles, Alan Trammell (2), Gary Templeton, Dick Schofeild, Edgar Renteria (2), Tony Kubeck, Micheal Cass, Jack Heidman, Christian Guzman, Alfredo Griffin, Tim Foli, Mike Carauso, Ozzie Guillen and Ed Birkman.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
cmon
you dont think the cardinals would trade rasmus for andrus? jim jones has a new flavor of coolaid for you people.
hello
ozzie smith carreer on base + slug. .666. omar vizquel .693. elvis andrus .702. at 20 years old. already a better offensive player as a hitter at 20. you dont think the steals are coming. you dont think he will grow as an offensive player. should have been number 2 on this list, low end. you are seeing greatness and going off old scouting reports. wake up. it is in your face. the best young player in the mlb is andrus.
I wouldn't go that far...
but he does deserve to be next. There is no way I’m taking him over McCutchen, Hanson, and Anderson though.
Let's cool it a bit before we make those kinds of assertions
Please, I’ve heard enough about Brandon Jennings in the past few days that I’m having a visceral reaction to these grandiose rookie comparisons/statements/shrines
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Vizquel and Smith are exception
and not reflective of any rule. 20 year old middle infielders do not necessarily turn into phenoms. Just ask Jose Lopez, he was a 20 year old MLB SS, then he bulked up and got kind of fat. Now he is just a league average 2B with league average offensive production. Andrus could probably stick at short even if he bulks up but you cannot say with any kind of certainty that he will remain a plus defender at such a young age. His value is in his plus defense right now and if that goes, he will be nothing exceptional.
(disclaimer, I know Lopez was never projected as an MLB SS but he is a great example of what can happen to a 20 year middle infielder who fills out).
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 18, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Andrus>Lopez
Jose Lopez is a pretty good ballplayer who is going to have a long career, probably 1500+ hits, maybe more, and while his OBP is pretty poor, his power has come on considerably the last couple of years. if that’s your downside, that’s a pretty good downside.
That said, Andrus has already played more than twice as much ss as Lopez ever played not to mention that Lopez had a far below average range factor in the games he played as ss whereas Andrus was…better than that. Not to mention a better OPS and OPS+ out of the box than Lopez.
The one thing Lopez has always lacked, however, and which Andrus apparently has in abundance (if sbs. sb% and triples are any kind of indicators), is speed, which I think is an important part of the profile for someone more likely to stick at ss. It still doesn’t guarantee an Ozzie Smith/Omar Vizquel outcome, but it would be hard to argue with a 50th percentile outcome from laxtonto’s list, and if you got a bit of luck and got a top 25% outcome, then you are talking HOF candidate.
I would say Andrus having an HOF career is extremely unlikely
unless he repeats Vizquel’s career and I even question if Vizquel will making because of his offensive difficencies. Andrus will surpass Lopez in SBs, 3Bs, and possibly walks, every thing else is untouchable unless he really changes physically and in his approach. Lopez’s career is likely an average 2B for 10 more years barring more defensive atrophy. His actual value is not likely to improve much from where he is right now with significant downside, Andrus is in the same position for me.
Rasmus’ potential right now is much higher because of his untapped offensive potential. Andrus is probably stuck around 3, max 4 WAR with downside. Rasmus’ is almost even with Andrus in value right now, but he has shown the tools and skills in the minors to develop into something like Grady Sizemore, a perrenial 5+ WAR player. I just fail to see an argument for Andrus unless you think Rasmus has little upside left and conversly, you see Andrus as having much room for improvment.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 18, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Both
Both are very good players. I would be happy to get either one in my fantasy draft coming up. I voted Rasmus, but think the arguments for Andrus are very good too.
+1
The incredulity of the Andrus supporters is a little over the top here. I see the argument for him, and it’s a good one, but the fact that: (1) it’s impossible to definitvely assert that his 11.7 UZR/150 is going to stay in that range; and (2) the fact that he’s a slap hitter with no real projection for power hampers his offensive upside; makes this a worthwhile question.
Maybe it comes down to a personal preference thing: whether you want the GG caliber, middle of the order center fielder, or the GG caliber, decent #2 hitter shortstop. Either position is reasonable.
Rasmus v. Andrus and the value of projectability
Andrus only hit “as well as” Rasmus last year if you ignore that he hit in the AL equivalent of Coors Field. He also hit “well” in a way that doesn’t suggest that a typical age curve will help his production the way it should with Rasmus.
55% of Andrus’s balls in play are hit on the ground, and his .267 batting average was achieved largely thanks to 13 infield hits and 6 bunt singles. Now, he can probably sustain that given his speed, but he recorded a full 15% of his hits this year via a manner that no amount of physical development can possibly turn into better outcomes (and in fact, if you grant that hitters often lose a step beyond their early 20s, could even decline).
Andrus will probably develop the strength to turn some of his singles into doubles on line drives, but if you’re looking at his results v. Rasmus’s in 2009 and reaching the conclusion that they have similar potential to improve with the bat, what you’re really saying is one of two things: either 1) Andrus can dramatically improve with his same approach, or 2) Andrus will fundamentally change his approach to add more extra base hits. For 1 to occur, Andrus will either have to cut his strikeouts down dramatically (i.e. more balls in play), or achieve far better results than his .307 BABIP in 2009. The strikeout reduction is unlikely – his major league K rate was actually BETTER than any rate he posted in the minors, and i’m not betting on the BABIP increasing. For 2, you’re taking a lot on faith.
Rasmus is built to add power. Based on his physical skills, his scouting reports, and his minor league numbers, he’s a guy we should expect to end up with a HR/FB% of between 13-16% compared to the 9.4% he put up this year. That’s based on pure extra strength. If Rasmus never makes any fundamental improvement over where he was in 2009, you should expect him to end up as a ~.260/.330/.480 hitter on added strength alone. If he improves his skills as well as his physical abilities, he should hit significantly better than that.
Andrus could end up being a comparably valuable hitter to Rasmus, but he doesn’t have the kind of profile that suggests he can do it based on physical development alone. Andrus’s development will have to come from a purely skills level. That’s the main reason I think Rasmus is the better prospect of the 2. If both of them stall out skills-wise, Rasmus still has the ability to become significantly more valuable as a hitter.
by slamcactus on Nov 18, 2009 4:41 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Well said.
The way I see it, the physical development that helps Andrus as a hitter is very likely to hurt him on defense, and I’m not at all comfortable evaluating his defense at this point as anything other than above average. All I see with Rasmus is upside.
What I derived from this essay
is that while both players could ultimately end up being as skilled as one another, Rasmus edges out Andrus because he has the potential to slug more than a light hitting short stop.
Andrus fields better, runs better and hit nearly as well when adjusted for position. It seems you’ve conveniently ignored everything Andrus does better than Rasmus (and by default what makes him so valuable) and concentrated solely on the one area of Rasmus’ game that gives him the edge.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 18, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
I really haven't.
I’m talking about the ability of both to become more valuable players down the road. Andrus could very well improve his hitting, but not by as much as Rasmus.
There are 2 ways for hitters to become more valuable: get bigger, and get better.
Andrus isn’t going to get much bigger, both because he doesn’t have the frame for it, and because the Rangers don’t want him to. Teams don’t tell their defensive wizard shortstops to bulk up. The Rangers will put him on a conditioning program designed to maintain his current skills rather than to add muscle, which could compromise his mobility. Andrus will add a little strength. It’s impossible not to. He’ll probably be a solid gap power guy when all is said and done. Expecting him to improve along a similar curve to a guy like Rasmus, though, is lunacy. Rasmus came up as a power hitter, he has the frame of a power hitter, and the Cardinals are going to develop him to maximize his power. Rasmus WILL get bigger, and may get better. Andrus may get better, and may get bigger, but not by much.
As a previous poster said, Andrus and Rasmus hit at comparable levels last year. The difference is Andrus’s 2009 is much closer to his absolute upside than Rasmus’s. His defense doesn’t have much room for improvement,* and his offense doesn’t have as much room for improvement as people seem to think.
*Even if you don’t buy that he could easily lose a step on defense, there just isn’t a lot of room to climb much higher than the 11.7 UZR/150 he put up this year. There’s a limit on how many runs a guy can save over league average, and no shortstop in the history of advanced fielding metrics puts up numbers consistently better than 15 FRAA.
Im inclined to agree to some extent...
I agree completely on Andrus’s defense. Yes, he’s very good right now… we can’t realistically expect him to get better. Its certainly in the realm of possibility that he turns out to be one of the 5 best defensive SSs ever, but its a fool’s bet to wager on something like that.
As for the bat – there’s plenty of reason to think Andrus just doesnt have that much offensive projection. Many thought this was the case last year and it was the major reason he didn’t rate higher on top 100 lists. He did surprisingly well in his debut, but I wouldnt anticipate another big step forward next year. Its dangerous to take that performance as a baseline and assume he will improve because he’s so young… he might improve, and he might not, and based on his minor league performances and scouting reports there probably isnt a great deal of power in that swing… so its not like he’s going to figure out something big.
I still might take Andrus over Rasmus, though… Andrus may not have much room to grow, but if he learns some polish he’s a very good player right now. I love the tools of Rasmus… but his poor year and attitude scared the crap out of me. He’s one of those guys Ive sort of given up on being an impact guy, but that I wouldnt be shocked at all if they turned out to be a perennial all star. Homer Bailey is also in that group.
I dont blame anyone for voting one way or the other on this one… Rasmus clearly has a much higher ceiling than Andrus.
Poor year?
Rasmus was worth 2.3 WAR in less than a full season last year despite playing through a nagging heel injury much of the season. I also think concerns about his attitude are overblown.
Great stuff.
This is a much more well articulated version of some of the points I was trying to make above. Well stated.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 19, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
so...
as a 20 year old rookie hes maxed out his potential? Because he was a 3.0 war player last year. Thats just foolish.
...
Not even close to what I said.
Age and offensive upside aren’t the same thing. It varies drastically according to player type. “Player A hit X/Y/Z at 20 years old so we can expect B level of improvement” is just lazy analysis.
The comment is probably directed at me
because I stated that I thought Andrus did not have the same potential for improvment as Rasmus. This, I maintain, is still a fair statement to make. Andrus’ minor league numbers do not suggest he is going to make significant in terms of ISO, BB %, or in making contact. His fielding is not likely to improve that much either, unless you really believe him putting up prodigous numbers, year in, year out.
Rasmus’ minor league track record and scouts suggest that he can make considerable improvment offensively. Andrus is near his cieling barring unforseen improvments, which are of course possible, but not everyone pulls a Kenny Lofton like improvment of their minor league numbers. His value is mostly in his defense, an area harder to improve on when your value is already one of the highest in the area. Expecting Andrus to improve significantly is like expecting Albert Pujols to improve more, this being hyperbole of course.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 18, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
minor league numbers
most players spend enough time in the minors to show development and a baseline for future performance. did andrus get the time to show the “experts” what his ceiling is?
depends on how you track development
Considering that Andrus was extremely young for every level he played at and is still not even considered physically mature according to most growth and development studies, probably not.
If you are going to base it off at bats per level and dismiss the age variable you can make an interesting profile based on his numbers.
What is really causing the major problem here is that there is such a small sample size of players achieving what Andrus has done at this age it is impossible to develop a good baseline what to expect. If you use a median approach of historical data for his age level you get so many upper echelon names that most people refuse to even accept that it is a possibility that he automatically gets discounted. Andrus gets killed becasue of the sample size issue.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Very well
said in the last paragraph.
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Nov 19, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
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