Coughlan NL Rookie?
by ScottAZ on Nov 17, 2009 12:49 PM EST
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http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091115&content_id=7669422&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Am I the only one left scratching their head with this one? I was sure that it would have come down to either Hanson or McCutchen and no one else would even be close.
Not saying Coughlan didn't have a solid rookie campaign or to slight him, but I thought the consensus was Hanson and McCutchen ran away from the crowd
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"Solid?"
565 ABs of .321/.390/.460 is better than “solid,” but I would have voted 1) McCutchen; 2) Hanson.
have you looked at any of the ROY/MVP/GG awards over the past idk 25 years????
yea we here at minorleagueball.com go through the stats on Fangraphs and understand advanced metrics to a degree… but most of the BBWAA writers are blowhard old school types who will look at a .321/.390/.460 line and say ROY!!!!
McCutch should get the nod for putting up the stats in a shorter time frame, while playing CF (metrics are split on how good he was, but lets not go by one year of metrics but rather revert to his scouting report and say he was atleast above average)
but then again, you gotta know you’re congregation
Coghlan (no u)
Best hitter in the league after the all-star break?
372/423/543
In all fairness...
Coghlan was very good, even if you preferred McCutchen as I did. .390 OBPs don’t grow on trees. I’m sure the fact that Coghlan topped 500 ABs while Hanson and McCutchen both spent 1/3 of the year in the minors mattered to more than a few voters too. It’s tough to win ROY without playing a full(ish) season.
Even with the difference in playing time
Coghlan still ranked behind McCutchen and Hanson in WAR. Mostly on the basis of bad defense, but still…
Coghlan played 20 more games than McCutchen
That’s less than 1 month difference in playing time. They had the same OPS+, but McCutchen played a more valuable position, played it better, and had a better speed game (22 SB in 27 attempted v. Coghlan’s 8 in 13 attempts). I just don’t see how anyone who takes more than 2 or 3 minutes to sit down and compare these two could pick Coghlan over McCutchen.
That's why I said Coghlan topped 500 ABs rather than quoted a number of games.
I think a lot of people consider 500 ABs to be pretty much a season. Even if the difference isn’t that significant, the fact that Coghlan passed that round number is going to resonate in some minds.
Coghlan got lucky as hell with his three months of BABIP's of .385, .426, .424
He will never hit .300 again I don’t think. He’s a .285 hitter at best, like John said a Todd Walker type.
Coghlan is definitely the least likely to repeat his performance going forward IMHO
I think that is why people are unhappy with the choice… but realistically, we arent worried about the future here – we’re concerned with what actually happened. If a guy gets lucky and gets 20 extra hits, well good for him. BABIP doesnt terrible concern me in this case. Yes, its something I look at to see if a guy got really lucky or unlucky… but Im not sure that’s the case here… then again, as I said previously, I would have voted McCutchen.
Exactly. The award is based, at least primarily, on production. It's not about projection
And it doesn’t matter who WILL be the best.
by thejd44 on Nov 17, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
He's also lucky because ROY is based on how the player has performed
not on what he’ll do in the future.
Congrats to him. He may not have been my vote, but he’s a worthy choice nonetheless.
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
Garrett Jones had a higher WAR that Coghlan in less playing time
I am surprised he did not get the more than the 2 3rd place votes he recieved. His Hrs and SLG are things voters would normally drool over. Coghlan winning is a mile better than Happ. It is wierd that so many voters went Happ over Hanson, even when looking at traditional stats. Winning the NL penant and mediocre playoff preformances are so underrated……
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 18, 2009 12:08 PM EST reply actions
Coghlan will be more valuable if/when moved to 2B
In the meantime, I would have gone for McCutchen. The strong hitting, base stealing, and up the middle defense makes me pretty excited.
Ha
You objected to “disdain of the Marlins” – but I can’t help but notice you didn’t object to his claim of “ignorance.”
Not sure where the original comment was coming from, either…
well....
i don’t care much about the Marlins and relaly don’t follow them outside from what I read on here and Baseball America. So in that sense I suppose I acknowledge a level of “ignorance” compared to their die hard fans, just in the same manner they would acknowledge theirs in all probability towards my Dbacks
I'd have voted Coghlan over McCutchen, but...
I’d rather have McCutchen over the long haul. And I would have voted Hanson as #1. I might have even gone with Garrett Jones over McCutchen for #3. But, again, as has been stated, this is not a projection, but rather a recap.
The wind is in the buffalo.
i have no problem with coghlan
the guy’s a ball player. mccutchen will probably be the better player long term, as will hanson, but i’m not going to hold coghlan’s defense against him for this year. " hey kid, you want to be in the big leagues ? here’s an OF glove…..".
I dont follow this line of thought
His defense is still something that should count against him for this year. I realize its not his fault he got shoved into the OF, but if we’re not worried about strategic issues and just worried about contributions on the field…
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