Last year's rookies-top community prospects for future performance #7
by Dalman on Nov 17, 2009 12:34 AM EST
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With the lowest percentage for a winner so far, Rick Porcello edges out Elvis Andrus and Colby Rasmus with 26% of the vote (to 20% for Andrus and 17% for Rasmus) to earn the #6 ranking among last year's rookies.
1. Matt Wieters, C Baltimore
2. Tommy Hanson, P Atlanta
3. Andrew McCutchen, of Pittsburgh
4. Brett Anderson, P Oakland
5. Gordon Beckham, 3b CHW
6. Rick Porcello, P Detroit
Cameron Maybin and Mat Gamel drop this round.
temporarily dropped from the poll (percentages and round in parens): Chris Coghlan 1% (3), Kyle Blanks 3% (4), Matt Laporta 2% (5), Derek Holland 2% (5), Ricky Romero 0% (5), Cameron Maybin 2% (6), Mat Gamel 1% (6)
This round we'll add back David Price, and give Trevor Cahill, Drew Stubbs, and Nolan Reimold a first try.
Other players being considered for first time addition to the poll over the next couple of rounds are Jeff Niemann, Andrew Bailey, and Gerardo Parra. Please suggest others.
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I'm going Andrus...
than Holland. Andrus could be the best defensive shortstop in baseball, and one of the best lead off hitters in baseball if given the chance. He could have a couple seasons where he bats well over 300 and steals 50 bases.
Holland is the best pitcher left. A power lefty like him should not be kept off the poll much longer. He has shown better command than Price and he also has just as good of secondary pitches.
Rasmus
I picked Rasmus. I like his potential to be a very good fielder, someone who moves around the bases well and someone with developing power. HIs 160 avg vs lefties is scary, but I think he will turn that around.
Will probably go Andrus, Price, Snider and Cahill, if they stay on.
Andrus
The dude put up a 3-WAR season at the age of 20. His defense will only get better (his only problem is reliable hands, something that improves with age) and the bat improved in the second half. He posts a good walk rate, hits plenty of line drives (22%) and has good bat control. He’s always a threat to steal when on base. To me, this vote is a one-horse race.
"his defense will only get better"
That’s something that’s 100% impossible for you to know. As I’ve said on another one of these threads, a LOT of players peak defensively in their early 20s. There’s no normal aging curve for defense like there is for offense. It will depend entirely on how Andrus’s body fills out in the next few years.
Price
Has he really dropped this far? It was debatable between he and Wieters last winter as to who was the top prospect. I know his year was a moderate disappointment, but I don’t see a reason that he should drop any further.
His stuff has clearly regressed
The fastball is still very good, but his slider just took a huge step back this year. Even when he was in AAA his numbers were way down. Throw in the fact that he still hasn’t developed a solid curve or change, and suddenly you’re looking at essentially a one pitch pitcher.
I liked Price a lot coming into this season, but even if the slider was still great, its tough for a SP to get by with only two real pitches. It seems like everyone just assumed Price would develop a usable 3rd pitch and that would be enough for him to take things to the next level. Instead, it seems like Price may have lost the feel for his slider (probably because he was focusing on the curve in AAA), which makes him a rather ordinary guy.
Even if Price does regain the form on his slider, I think other guys have clearly passed him at this point because he still doesn’t have a solid 3rd pitch. With his slider, he’s at least a good mid rotation starter or possibly great 8th or 9th inning guys. Still, the top of the rotation projection looks much less likely now that we’ve gone a whole year and he still hasn’t improved his repertoire.
Yup
I dropped Hughes and Price – but never gave up on Buchholz. You might think its b/c Im a Sox fan… I can’t say with 100% certainty that didn’t play a part, of course, but for me the big difference was Buchholz’s stuff still looked excellent and drew rave reviews even as he struggled and put up a 5+ ERA. Hughes got hurt and didn’t look right until really the second half of this year – and even then in relief. You’ve given an excellent analysis of Price.
jc3 – Typically, I won’t drop a young pitching prospect that quickly for bad results, but when we get bad results on stuff that is reason for concern. Derek Holland is another excellent example. Luke Hochevar as well. Neither had great debuts numbers wise, but Im still a big believer b/c the stuff looks great. Theyre figuring out how to pitch at this level. Price is as well, but his stuff has dropped a bit. I still do believe in Price, but I don’t really see the Ace upside there anymore. 2-3 seems a lot more reasonable right now. I certainly wouldn’t give up on him or even be surprised if he gets back where he was – but he doesnt get a break with me any more, he has to go out and do it to convince me. It will be interesting to see his first half of 2010.
'09 comparison
From Fangraphs..
Buchholz (24) – 6.65 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9, 4.69 FIP, Avg FB, +SL, +CB, -CH
Price (23) – 7.15 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, 4.59 FIP, +FB, -SL, Avg CB, +CH
Holland (22) – 6.96 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 1.69 HR/9, 5.10 FIP, —FB, Avg SL, +CB, -CH
Price matches up extremely well with these guys statistically (I would say he had the best year) and Price threw, on average, a harder FB than Holland (surprised how badly Holland’s FB graded out). The only true negatives I see on Price are that a) he didn’t throw as hard in ‘09 as he did in ’08 (possible SSS for ’08) and for some reason, his slider was poor in ’09 despite the rep of it being a plus pitch. I guess we’ll need to wait and see, but I think a lot of this Price losing value is SNTS. IMO, his ability to be an ace is entirely based on his SL getting back to plus territory and he’s not as far away as you guys are saying. JMO.
Velocity
The drop in velocity was most likely a result of him being used as a starter instead of a reliever.
You can't just look at wCB/c and wCH/c
And act like that is all there is to grading a pitch. Price throws his FB-SL combo 89.5% of the time. That leaves us with very small sample sizes for those values, ~143 CH and ~84 CB for the entire season. It also points to him being currently the most reliant of that group on his top 2 pitches as Holland threw his top 2 (FB-SL) 82.8% of the time and Buccholz threw his top 2 (FB-CH) 78.1% of the time.
No one is saying that Price doesn’t still have immense upside or that he’s a very good prospect going forward. We’re just trying to explain why he has been passed by other pitchers. I think its clear at this point that both Hanson and Anderson have obviously passed him by, and strong cases can be made for guys like Porcello, Holland, Latos, etc.
CH/CB
If he showed an average CB and a +CH, even in those small samples, isn’t that improvement with his secondary pitches? He certainly didn’t get knocked around this year on his alleged 3rd and 4th best pitches. The problem pitch for him was his SL and it wasn’t supposed to be that way according to his scouting reports.
While I agree on Hanson & Anderson, I’m bullish on Price more so than those other guys, although I’m really impressed with Porcello and his outstanding FB. I guess we will wait and see on this one…
Not necessarily
Because those numbers only go so far toward showing how good the pitches actually are. Part of their success is likely due to the fact that he threw them so rarely that batters weren’t looking for them. He certainly doesn’t throw them enough for anyone to ever really sit on one of them. On top of that, the sample size is just so small I don’t feel comfortable calling a pitch average and especially a plus pitch because of it. The scouting reports still aren’t strong on either pitch and he hasn’t really learned how to mix them in successfully. Until that changes or we have significantly more data, that’s how I’m going to approach those pitches.
On a side note, it isn’t necessarily correct to call a pitch that registers right near a 0.00 an average pitch. Take CBs as an example. ~2/3 of qualifying pitchers that threw CBs last year ranked at a 0.0 or better. Because of the nature of the pitch, an average CB should have a positive wCB/c.
Well
my point was the difference is in scouting.
Again, though, I like Price and still think he’s a top of the rotation guy – and I said his numbers arent my concern with him. What has dropped his prospect status from “best prospect in baseball” to “very good pitching prospect” is that slider and his inability to throw it for strikes. It went from an out pitch to a chase pitch and his stuff is pretty good, but not great like that.
That's what it means to be a pitching prospect.
Check with Phil Hughes and Clay Buchholz (pre-late-2009) for examples.
Going with Rasmus...
Andrus’s defense gets a lot of hype, but Rasmus is no slouch either, and I think he’s only scratched the surface of his power potential. He’s a bigtime breakout candidate for me next season.
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