BA CUBS TOP 10
by rdf8585 on Nov 16, 2009 11:28 AM EST
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Print1. Starlin Castro, ss
2. Brett Jackson, of
3. Josh Vitters, 3b
4. Andrew Cashner, rhp
5. Jay Jackson, rhp
6. Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7. Logan Watkins, 2b
8. Chris Carpenter, rhp
9. Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10. D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b
Not surprised Castro is #1, though I figured they'd stick Vitters at #2 after ranking him #1 the past two winters. But B.Jackson looked impressive in his debut and Vitters is still immune to taking a walk. Also somewhat surprised Cashner and J.Jackson aren't flipped. When we look back on this list in a year, we'll wonder why Kyler Burke wasn't on it.
Any thoughts on this list?
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Huge leaps forward...
This system has taken some nice steps forward.
Anyone have a comparison or some kind of info as to the upside Brett Jackson offers the Cubs in the future? What kind of bat does he project to have?
I don’t get why people are so down on Vitters. He’s got an excellent swing, he’s 19, and in two of his 3 stops with significant ABs he’s put up a .875-ish OPS. I don’t like the fact that he doesn’t walk and thats the thing that threw me off about Delmon Young as a prospect, but I think Vitters’ swing and what people have written about his approach show a maturity and polish that Young never really displayed.
Cashner has sick upside…I’m really excited to see how he develops next year. I hope they give him as much of a chance at being a start as possible.
Vitters
He needs to significantly improve his OBP in order to project as even an average major league hitter, a fact which is especially amplified considering that many project him to end up at 1B defensively. Perhaps you could elaborate as to why you feel that Vitters’ lack of taking walks is showing more polish and maturity than Delmon Young displayed at the same age, as it seems like a very similar developmental issue (I.E. the same “excuses”) to me. In fact, from the 2006 BA Handbook on Young:
Strengths: His knowledge of the strike zone is advanced for his age, and coupled with his bat control allows him to make repeated hard contact.
Weaknesses: He could use some more patience at the plate after walking four times in 52 Triple-A games and 29 times overall last year.
Those quotes sound a lot like what people say about Vitters’ strengths and weaknesses right now. Vitters walked 12 times in just under 500 PAs this year. That’s extremely frightening. Then combine that with this recent quote from Vitters, and I’m not encouraged that he “gets it”:
“I’m not going up there looking for a walk,” he said. “If I see a good pitch and I can drive it, I’m going to swing. It’s not a problem at all because I don’t strike out a lot.”
Couple things...
1. I’m not so sure I mind what he said given that he’s a young 20. Any 20 year old would say something like that.
2. I don’t think he’s going to end up as a 1B. LF at worst, but he’s young and not as unathletic as people make it seem so 3B is entirely possible.
3. Vitters’ has a prettier swing. Yes, I realize how subjective and biased that can and does sound.
I’m really not all that down on Vitters despite my history of hating prospects like him. I’m not even sure it comes down to him being a Cub either…I just like his basic package and the upside that still reminds.
Brett Jackson
Middle of the order fixture who plays good center field. Only real downsides in his game are his arm (which is average in CF) and the strikeouts. Mike Cameron seems to be a good comp, although I think Jackson will hit for better average.
by Outshined_One on Nov 16, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
damn that was really funny at this point in my day….
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Nov 17, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
My Top 10 goes
(as of now, still tinkering)
1. Starlin Castro, B+.
2. Josh Vitters, B.
3. Jay Jackson, B.
4. Andrew Cashner, B.
5. Hak-ju Lee, B-/B.
6. Brett Jackson, B-/B.
7. Chris Carpenter, B-/B.
8. Kyler Burke, C+/B-.
9, Ryan Flaherty, C+.
10. Dae-Eun Rhee, *,
The major name that they have that isn’t on my list is Logan Watkins. Right now, I have Logan Watkins anywhere from the early-late teens. That said, I’m not surprised BA listed him. Every indication is that the Cubs are awfully high on him internally, and unless BA’s changed their methods, I expected them to rank him relatively high.
Rhee has an asterisk from me. He was impressive in a SSS last year, but had TJ surgery and is working his way back. When he was healthy, you could make a case that his starting potential was higher than anyone else in the system in terms of arsenal. But health, and along with that, whether or not he’s strong enough to be durable as a starter are fair questions.
I think a lot of people will be relatively down to Flaherty since he was older than expected, but the thing is, Daytona fell out of the race, and a lot of guys stayed at Peoria to be in the race. There are some tiny concerns, but Flaherty showed better pop than I expected and fixed/tinkered with his swing during the year. He finished strong and had bad luck early. Add in solid defense, and if he has a strong year at a higher level, I think people will really pay attention. I, as have others, liken him a bit to Mark DeRosa.
I have no idea why BA is down on Kyler Burke. Their explanations have been a little eh (not a CF … except no one is expecting him to be; bad platoon splits … except it wasn’t that bad). Now, I’m certainly taking a wait and see in regards to how he does after finally leaving A ball, but I’m really intrigued. Loads of tools, strong RF defensive potential, and pop that the system doesn’t have a huge abundance of.
I was fine with the Brett Jackson pick, but I think BA’s going a little overboard with the love. That said, I think you can order the 5-6 people after Castro in various ways and make a valid case for it.
I would go with Jay Jackson over Andrew Cashner because I believe in Jackson’s starting potential more than I believe in Cashner’s, and Jackson projects to be a potential middle of the rotation arm at least. If we’re comparing an end of the rotation arm to a top closer, that’s a different story, but Jay’s got good starting potential.
I was never as high as some Cubs fans on Vitters, but I think the bashing goes a bit overboard sometimes. Here was a guy who, off of one extremely hot streak in A ball, had people at midseason pondering him as a top 30 prospect (there was a thread … I thought it was too much then). All this year showed me is that he isn’t an elite prospect that adapts real quick, and that injuries slowed his progress. That said, there are plenty of concerns, ranging from his discipline (it isn’t just the walks that bother me … it’s the fact that he took something like 3.2 or 3.3 P/PA, which is bleh), how his power plays at upper levels, defense, and so forth. I’m not trying to oversell him … I just think the bashing has gone a bit overboard.
I compare Hak-ju Lee’s offense to Che-Hsuan Lin. I think there’s a lot of strong similarities offensively.
Castro
His rise this year is still amazing…. BA’s Handbook said he’d probably be in Boise this year, which made a lot of sense given his age and the horde of other MI’s in the system, like Lake, Lee, Watkins, Flaherty etc….but that he ended the year with 100+ AB in AA is something I never saw coming.
I don't think any Cubs fans legitimately saw it coming
Cubs obviously saw something at Instructs last year. He’s reportedly an excellent student and hard worker (which esteemed Cubs guru AzPhil notes as a main difference between CAstro and a former talented Cubs SS prospect, Ronny Cedeno). Cubs fans knew last year that the Cubs were high on him (Tim Wilken gushed about him in an interview), but to expect this would’ve been insane (and it’s more than just the performance, it’s the meteoric rise in attention the last couple months, I went from thinking he was a borderline top 50 prospect that had a lot of projection to go, to thinking that he might be a top 30 prospect who the Cubs might call up at some point in 2010 (even though I’d rather see him wait another year in the minors).
Maybe the Best
depth up the middle? Hard to argue with that much talent for 2B/SS.
i love tim wilken's draft focus
on athletic pitchers, and up the middle talent.
heck, as they said in the chat today, darwin barney get overlooked, but he’s a decent shortstop prospect in his own right.
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