Last year's rookies-top community prospects for future performance #6
by Dalman on Nov 16, 2009 12:16 AM EST
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PrintWith a solid 38% of the vote Gordon Beckham clearly outpolls the other candidates and is the fifth best prospect among last year's rookies.
1. Matt Wieters, C Baltimore
2. Tommy Hanson, P Atlanta
3. Andrew McCutchen, OF Pittsburgh
4. Brett Anderson, P Oakland
5. Gordon Beckham, 3b CHW
That also leaves Elvis Andrus as the only player who has been on continuously since the first round and is yet to win.
Matt Laporta, Derek Holland, and Rick Romero are all easy calls to drop this round.
temporarily dropped from the poll (percentages and round in parens): Chris Coghlan 1% (3), David Price 3% (4), Kyle Blanks 3% (4), Matt Laporta 2% (5), Derek Holland 2% (5), Rick Romero 0% (5)
This round we'll add back Cameron Maybin and Dexter Fowler, and give Matt Latos and Mat Gamel their first try.
Jeff Neimann and Trevor Cahill are on the top of the list to get first tries next round. As always, other suggestions aappreciated.
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andrus
if im a rangers fan, i’m going to love seeing him for the next 5-6 years just eat things up the middle defensively. i think he’ll do enough offensively.
As for folks that should be mentioned – I don’t think Randy Wells will be a great player, or should be ranked anywhere near here. But around the early teens, he’s probably worth a discussion, as he did post a healthy 3.0 WAR and a fairly high floor may make him a safer bet.
ot: anyone know if cwhit will finish up his thing
been waiting on the cubs … just to see (well, hope to see) cubs discussion that isn’t limited to cubs fans bantering back and forth about it.
I'm Sorry, Been Busy
You know what, I’ll get that one up today.
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Andrus
speedy plus fielding shortstops who are Mario Mendoza at the bat, and who come up very young, almost uniformly, have very long careers. That doesn’t make him a shoo-in as a future hall of famer but gives him as good a chance as anyone except perhaps Wieters on this list of getting there or just one tier below. Personally, I would consider a Royce Clayton outcome rather dissapointing for Andrus, yet even that is still a very good player for a very long time.
There's...
a pretty serious selection bias in that statement. You remember the ones who had long careers, and forget the ones who didn’t. That archetype, 1) speedy, 2) plus defensive, 3) shortstops, 4) who aren’t Mario Mendoza with the bat, 5) and who come up very young describes a couple of great players, a lot of so-so players, and a lot of guys who were nothing special. First of all, you’re right that this archetype typically have “very long careers,” but A) that doesn’t necessarily mean they have good careers, and B) the length of the career of players with this archetype is often for the precise reason that they had the tools to justify appearing in the majors at a very young age. Teams give second, third, and seventh chances to a guy their scouts said looked major league ready as a 20-year-old at a premium position.
Your criteria capture Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez (who we can assume will have a long career), etc, but it also includes guys like Alex Cintron, Andujar Cedeno, Mike Caruso, Omar Infante, Ramon Santiago, Ronny Cedeno, and Andres Blanco, among other guys who are nothing to write home about (every single guy on that list debuted at age 22 or younger).
Archetypes give interesting context, but they aren’t in themselves evidence that a player will be anything special. Andrus has particular skills that set him apart from every single one of these players – both the good and the bad. The success rate of somewhat similar players can be a little informative, but your category is way too broad.
whats the point of creating new topics?
just use the data from the previous polls
explain please
not sure exactly what you mean by “creating new topics”. I’m only creating one new post a day and even if we could do repeated polls in the same post (if that is what you mean) I would think that would get extremely unwieldy in a big hurry.
wouldn't be really accurate
I’m a little brain dead in the morning, so the best way I can put this is an example. You’ve got 4 players, ABCD. Poll finishes in that order, with B in 2nd place. That said, what if enough people that voted for A all agreed on D as the next best option, and meaning that, it would push D into 2nd position in a re-vote?
Other suggestions
Nolan Reimold and Luis Valbuena.
not trying to hijack a thread but...
how does elvis andrus compare with alcades escobar? Who has the higher offensive cieling?
Porcello
This guy is going to be a stud. He has the stuff to be a frontline starter for a long time.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 16, 2009 10:05 AM EST reply actions
Snider
Still has immense offensive potential and is very young. He has improvemed over the course of the year and I would count on a breakthrough in 2010, much like Lind did.
Porcello GB heavy profile is great, especially considering his age. However, he struck out less than 5 per 9 and his BABIP of .281 is extremely low for somebody with a 54 % GBs and 17 %LDs. If he pitches to a more reasonable BABIP, his value will regress servely. He rarely uses his breaking pitches or change and the two seamer does not have the same velocity as he was hyped with. He needs to batters to miss more and improve his pitch variation badly.
Andrus’ main value is tied to his defense and that can be something very volatile in itself. In the previous thread, the possibility of him losing range is quite real, but I do not want to rehash that argument here. I do not see him improving that much offensively right now. Essentially, I think he will be hard pressed to outpreform his 3 wins by more than 1 and is plagued by a significant chance to regress defensively or offensively.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 16, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions
Rasmus
Porcello is a close second for me, but I really like the way Rasmus’ future looks like. He still is having troubles hitting lefties, but his bat progressed and adjusted as the season progressed. I can really see him posting a .900 OPS annually, starting in 2011.
Maybe if he learns to hit LHP.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 16, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Has Price fallen off this far
that he’s getting zero votes about 6 spots in?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
+1
I think it is ridiculous that people are this down on him. I’d still put him about even with the #3-#5 guys on the list. He had struggles adjusting to MLB, but very few pitchers don’t, and I’m not sure if ANY rookie could come in and pitch in the AL East without some growing pains.
Most of the damage came early on….in his last 12 starts, his stats were:
75.1 IP, 61 H, 6 HR, 21 BB, 48 K.
The K rate is a bit lower than you’d like to see, but other than that, those are pretty sweet stats.
by BaseballBrain on Nov 16, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
None of the FIP components are anything to write home about in that sample
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
+1
I’m just trying to call them as the community sees there here except for my own vote, but I have to admit to being really surprised by the lack of interest in Price the last time he was on. He had a very strange season with loads of strikeouts and loads of walks the first half, and much better control but a somewhat supressed strikeout rate the second half. If he can find a good balance between the two approaches, watch out. I’ll get him back on no later than round 8 and would certainly think that by that point he should be ready to draw some considerable support.
Rey Ordonez??
Rey Ordonez, as a 24 year old rookie OPSed .592 while stealing one base against 3 times caught stealing. That they were/are both good fielding shortstops begins and ends their comparability.
Likewise, the other list of shortops provided did all at least touch the majors by 22, but most didn’t become regulars until later, most didn’t hit nearly as well or steal bases nearly as well in their debuts, and many quickly moved off of ss. The only one who significantly outhit Andrus in his rookie year was Cintron and that was at age 24, who wasn’t any kind of a basestealer and who had already seen significant time at 2b and 3b.
Andrus doesn’t come with any guarantees, but I would bet that when you take real comps (full time ss by 22, rookie OPS 75+, significantly better than league average RF/9 from the get go, pure short stop, positive speed indicators to include triples and double digit sbs with a high success rate) there is a Tony Fernandez/Omar Vizquel/Ozzie Smith etc. or at least a Royce Clayton/Gary Templeton, for every player who crashed and burned. I’ll take those odds any day.
Fowler and Price are the next best options
people seem to be forgetting their huge upsides and going with guys who had better numbers…
latos??
potential Ace.. he should defintly be next..
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