Last year's rookies-top community prospects for future performance #5

by Dalman on Nov 14, 2009 11:43 PM EST Comment 31 comments

With 50% for Brett Anderson earning him placement as the #4 rookie from last year, that may mark something of an end point for the first tier, as Anderson, along with the first three monopolized 80% of the vote in the first round, and with the exception of Beckham, no one else could muster up more than 6% in comparison to Anderson.

1. Matt Wieters, C Baltimore

2. Tommy Hanson, P Atlanta

3. Andrew McCutchen, OF Pittsburgh

4. Brett Anderson, P Oakland.

Its kind of hard to tell who to drop here. I think what makes the most sense is to drop Fowler, Price and Blanks who each got 3% and leave the others, even if they only got 4%, and just chalk it up as a strange round.

temporarily dropped from the poll (percentage and round in parens) Cameron Maybin 0% (2), Chris Coghlan 1% (3), Dexter Fowler 3% (4), David Price 3% (4), Kyle Blanks 3% (4),

This round we'll add back Travis Snider, Chris Tillman, and Matt Laporta, and, based on several requests, give Derek Holland and Ricky Romero a try.

That means that Matt Latos, Jeff Niemann and Trevor Cahill will wait another round. I'd like to get two of those three (preferences?) and a new hitter on the poll next round. I was thinking maybe Gamel, but other suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Poll

Who is the best prospect for future major league performance among the following who used up their rookie eligibility in 2009?

Gordon Beckham, 3b CHW

79 votes

Elvis Andrus, ss Texas

34 votes

Rick Porcello, P Detroit

24 votes

Colby Rasmus, of St. Louis

25 votes

Travis Snider, of Toronto

11 votes

Chris Tillman, P Baltimore

14 votes

Matt Laporta, of/1b Cleveland

5 votes

Derek Holland, P Texas

6 votes

Ricky Romero, P Toronto

1 votes

other (please specify below)

4 votes

203 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 31 comments

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Comments

Considering...

the White Sox are moving Beckham back to second, I will take him over the rest of the them. He has the potential to be the best second baseman in the MLB.

by joegonzo on Nov 15, 2009 12:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

agreed.

jeff kent 2.0

by daveh33 on Nov 15, 2009 1:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe...

I’m as big a Beckham fan as any, but there’s currently a second baseman who’ll only be 31 next year whose WAR the past 5 years has ranged from a low of 6.8 to a high of 8.1, making him the second most valuable position player in baseball during that time. Beckham’s going to be great, but he’s no Chase Utley. He may have the potential to be the best second baseman in MLB, but not untl Utley reaches his decline phase.

by slamcactus on Nov 15, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well by the time beckham is going to be one of the best 2nd basemens in MLB

chase utley will be on the decline… like in 4 years when beckham is in his prime chase is in his decline..

by matthewmafa on Nov 15, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ian Kinsler might have something to say

by Coolbean04 on Nov 15, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

and there’s also another 2B who has been better than Kinsler in each of the last two years.

Besides those two, Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill and Robby Cano are pretty damn good, too.

When the hell did second base get so deep, anyway…?

by alskor on Nov 15, 2009 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Andrus

Give me the premier defensive SS with a chance to hit.

by jar75 on Nov 15, 2009 1:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Over...

the guy who just OPS’d ? Andrus has a chance to hit around league average, which with his defense would make him about a 4-win player (and that’s generously assuming he stays a +15 shortstop, which I don’t think is safe to assume – guys fill out as they age). Beckham has legitimate star potential.

by slamcactus on Nov 15, 2009 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not...

that there’s anything wrong with Andrus. I don’t really buy the offensive upside, but he doesn’t really need it to be a very good player. I just think Beckham’s clearly the superior “prospect.”

by slamcactus on Nov 15, 2009 2:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Andrus’s chances of becoming an average hitter are better than Beckham becoming a premier hitter. He’s also 2 years younger and has already posted a 3 WAR season. We also have to see how well he can actually play second base.

It’s nothing against Beckham (he’d be next on my list), but I’d rather have Andrus.

by jar75 on Nov 15, 2009 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Andrus's age...

I’ve said this in other places, but Andrus’s age really shouldn’t be a big factor. He doesn’t have projectable power. He might fill out a little bit and add a tiny more power, but he just doesn’t have a high offensive ceiling. His age can, however, sap a lot of his defensive value, and there’s at least as much risk that he loses a step and goes from defensive wizard to merely “good defensive shortstop” as there is upside in his bat.

Beckham’s older, but he’s also about as good a bet to become an elite hitter as anyone alive. 22-year-olds who rocket through the minors like he did and experienced that kind of immediate major league success are pretty special. Beckham doesn’t have the glove of Longoria or Zimmerman, but his bat is comparable and scouts have been saying that his defensive tools make him much better suited for 2B than 3B.

by slamcactus on Nov 15, 2009 3:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

slam

you make excellent points on Beckham and Andrus, particularly in regards to Andrus’ age. Just wanted to give you a nod for that.

That said, went with Andrus. No real reason other than loving his glove, which might not be enough of an argument, so just call it a gut vote.

by toonsterwu on Nov 15, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Range

I’m not sure why you keep sighting the possibility that he loses range. When was the last instance of that happening? From looking over a bit of RngR data on fangraphs (admittedly not anywhere near exhaustive), it looks like it remains somewhat stable.

I’m just not sure how much better Beckham’s bat is going to get. I’m not comfortable projecting him to have a Longoria-esque bat just yet.

by jar75 on Nov 15, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It is very easy for SS's to lose range

It is a very demanding position in terms of athleticism and many players do not age well on it. If Andrus fills out physically any more it is not a stretch to say he might lose some of his range. Mariner fans have the strong reminder, of Yuniesky Betancourt, of how a SS can loose range quickly. Jhonny Peralta and Miquel Tejeda are a couple more examples of players that fill out and lose a step at short.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 15, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Range

Betancourt went from having a slightly below average range to having very bad range. He may be a decent example, but it’s not like he was a good defensive SS before.

Peralta, I don’t buy that one at all. His RngR has varied significantly every year, and he just put up his best RngR season of 1.6

Tejada’s has been pretty stable for his entire career. He put up -14 RngR’s in 2002, 2003 and 2009. In between those years, he was consistently between -5 and 5.

There are also examples like Jack Wilson who has seen his range improve with age.

by jar75 on Nov 15, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I should say it is not set in stone

There are freaks of nature like Vizquel, that have great range for a long time, and good ones like Wilson that maintain an above-average range. However, in the minors many young players are forced to switch because of building muscle mass that slows down your speed. Andrus came up so fast he has not really closed his window for physical development.

Andrus is listed at 6’0, 185, as of right now. The main difference between Andrus and the other guys we listed is that he is considerably younger than all of them. At 21, with the right or wrong conditioning, he could end up at 200, which would be a bit unwieldly at SS.

On Peralta, he is listed at 6’1 210, kinda of what I would se Andrus as if he bulked up. However, his RngR has been bad any year at SS except, excluding 2009. It is -5, -9, -15, and -9 for 2008 going back. Of course, if Andrus gains more mass, Rangers fans would hope it is balanced off in increased offensive numbers.

I think he could be end up as a Cesar Izturis with a close to average wOBA bat or a slightly more rangey Peralta, the former being the more likely case.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 15, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The guys...

who lose range are typically the guys who switch off shortstop. Your cursory analysis has a major selection bias. Stats like RngR are an incomplete data set that are reliant on things like defensive positioning to far too great a degree to be an accurate portrayal of a guy’s range, particularly over the small sample of a single season. The Fan Scouting Report, while imperfect, is probably a better tool for making that determination.

by slamcactus on Nov 15, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The last instance?

People outgrow positions in their late teens/early 20s all the time. Everyone who follows prospects understands this and watches it happen every year. People ignore the fact that the same developments are happening to other players, just not to the extent that forces a position change.

Hitters reach their peak skill years between the ages of 27-30, but players generally hit their athletic peak between the ages of 19-22. For a lot of players, this means hitting their defensive peak during those years too, while other guys find ways to compensate for a decline in raw athleticism. It’s not a given, but it’s a risk, and it’s especially a risk when people tell a kid who’s a rangy defensive wizard at SS that he needs to bulk up and add power.

by slamcactus on Nov 15, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Next five for me...

Andrus
Holland
Porcello
Rasmus
Fowler

by joegonzo on Nov 15, 2009 12:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

mine in order

Fowler
Andrus
Laporta
Rasmus
Porcello

by daveh33 on Nov 15, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mat Latos??

he should be added to the next voting for sure..

by matthewmafa on Nov 15, 2009 1:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes

by hirambocachica on Nov 15, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I voted Snider here, which seems to be in the minority

He has immense potential still and is still very young. He struggled this year but it can be argued he was a bit rushed and was also playing at such a young age. He showed improved form at the end of the year after tearing up AAA, though month to month splits are not the best thing to look too much into. He just needs to work on his fielding, it was pretty ugly both times I saw him play in RF and LF, though it is not Brad Hawpe like. UZR really can’t suggest anything about that with SSS concerns.

Next, I would vote Rasmus for the offensive potential he provides along with possible plus defense in centre. That combined offensive and defensive potential puts him above Andrus for me, who I really do not see gaining much power, and could easily lose a step at SS as he ages.

Beckham falls below Rasmus and Snider for me because I do not see him being much better than he was offensively this year, barring a couple career years in his prime. I wonder how well he will rate at 2B defensively, considering he was not considered exceptional or even above average at 3B,

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 15, 2009 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Would Niese qualify for this list?

He’s not going in the top tier(s), but he should be in the conversation.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 15, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Niese

Still has rookie eligibility.

by killa on Nov 15, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, really?

Thought he went over. never mind.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 16, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Niese

still a rookie

by Dalman on Nov 16, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

does anyone know what the ranking where last year??

from this same poll..

by matthewmafa on Nov 15, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

look here

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/9/26/1055587/another-look-at-the-rookie-class
where we did a poll at the end of Spetember taking another look back at the 2008 results, which included a posting of those results. If you go back far enough in the search on fanposts you can find the specific round data. If you don’t want to click or search, the first five in order were Longoria, Bruce, Kershaw, Soto and Chamberlain.

by Dalman on Nov 15, 2009 5:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs