“Which guy has more value in a keeper league?”

Well I’d say 95% of keeper leagues retain 10 or less players in which case neither player is a factor.
For dynasty leagues, I hesitantly say Hughes will be a better starter.

In my dynasty league last year I drafted Joba 89th overall ahead of Price, Nolasco and Josh Johnson. What is Joba’s ADP for 2010? Somewhere in the 220 range? Ugh, I’m mad at myself.

I just dont buy Joba having the endurance to last as a starter. His stuff and velocity goes up and down in his starts. Everyone was ready to annoint him a future Ace, but he never has really put together a good full season of starts – even in the minors (once in college, I guess…). Even this year only 157.1 IP (with 167 H allowed and 76 walks while only striking out 133!). Yes, he was on a leash the end of the year, but still…

Hughes I loved in the minors, then after that injury in Texas his stuff didnt look right until this year. I dont think either is an Ace anymore, but I like Hughes to be a solid mid-front of the rotation type. I know people hate to hear it, but I think Joba’s injury history, weight, conditioning and stuff is going to force him to the pen – where he’ll be very good. I know he’s in better shape, but he’s still a big boy and you could see him physically tire in starts and lose velocity and stuff dramatically later in games (and then sometimes pump it up again – indicating to me that he can’t maintain that level).

Neither Joba’s stuff nor results were particularly impressive this season, outside of some flashes of dominance, most of them in the early part of the year. Hughes, OTOH, really impressed me. It seemed like something clicked and he really matured as a pitcher.

I wouldnt mind having either on my team, of course – Id just rather have Hughes. Joba’s good and still has plenty of upside… but there’s a lot of risk there, too.

For as much praise as people want to heap on the “breaking kids in via the bullpen” tactic, I firmly believe in Joba’s case it set back his long term development. It really all boils down to his fastball. When he’s out of the bullpen and is able to sit 95 MPH+, he gets swings and misses and induces poor contact just based on the “raw stuff”. When he’s sitting 91 to 94 as a starter, without good command his fastball gets rocked.

It seemed to me that early in the year he was trying to live and die by the fastball, and was surprised to see that he couldn’t just blow it by hitters at will. Then he went too far in the other direction, where he was scared to throw the fastball and was pitching backwards too much and put far too many guys on base via the walk.

I think that his 3 primary pitches (the lower 90s FB, SL, CB) are all good enough for him to be a good #2/#3 rotation guy (depends on the further development of his change as well), he just needs more development time. He really didn’t seem to have much of a game plan, as his whole deal out of the bullpen was just hucking fastballs and sliders as hard as he could. I think that sending him back to the bullpen now would be pulling the plug too soon, he just needs to understand the importance of refining his fastball command when he’s working at lower velocities.

he definitely has the makeup of a starter and has a much more diverse arsenal of pitches.

just because hughes’ curveball is inconsistent doesnt mean it cant be in the long run. hes still very young.

the biggest thing that holds hughes back from being that 1-2 starter is his fastball. its a pretty straight pitch and its going to be 3-4 ticks lower out of the pen.

i do like hughes a ton more than joba