BP's Red Sox Top 15 Prospects
by larry on Nov 12, 2009 12:24 PM EST
69 comments
Five-Star Prospects
1. Ryan Westmoreland, CF
2. Casey Kelly RHP/SS
Four-Star Prospects
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Ryan Kalish, OF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
6. Jose Iglesias, SS
7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Reymond Fuentes, CF
11. Derrik Gibson, 2B/SSFour More:
12. David Renfroe, RHP/SS: Like Kelly, he's another big-bonus, two-way star, but Renfroe will begin his career as an infielder, and he projects as a prototypical third baseman due to his size, power potential, and arm.
13. Alex Wilson, RHP: He had a 0.50 ERA in New York-Penn League while giving up just 10 hits in 36 innings, but he's already 23, so he should dominate. Still, his fastball/slider combo is impressive.
14. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP: The young Dominican righty still has plus command and plenty of projection, but performances have been so-so.
15. Che-Hsuan Lin, LF: Lin’s tools still impress, his defense remains outstanding, his numbers... not so much, but Red Sox officials remain very high on him....
The Sleeper: Over-slot 2008 draftee Peter Hissey had a so-so pro debut on paper, batting .279/.356/.347 at Low-A Greenville, but scouts loved the tools and saw consistent progress throughout the year, as he hit .321 after the all-star break.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
0 recs |
69 comments
| Add comment
Email
Print
Comments
Younginer
Should have been on here, likely instead of Wilson or Lin.
by rdf8585 on Nov 12, 2009 12:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
Younginer has an arm, but hasn’t been used more than a reliever. Can he hold up to starting? Will his arm allow him to do so? Is his secondary stuff good enough?
Still too many questions.
by thudean on Nov 12, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Lin has some impressive tools, and played well above his numbers last year at an age-appropriate level, doing pretty much everything minus hitting for power.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 12, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5-15 could pretty much be listed in any order
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 12, 2009 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
was thinking this as well
surprised pimentel was that low though
by daveh33 on Nov 12, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Same.
I personally have Pimentel at #6.
He might be the highest ceiling pitcher in the Red Sox system.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 12, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually didn't expect to see Westy at #1, given the fact that he's done nothing above short-season ball.
Still, the tools are undeniably strong, and KG did give him seemingly inordinate praise before Westmoreland had even logged any pro experience.
Westmoreland’s combination of size, athleticism, and his Rhode Island roots bring with them unavoidable comparisons to Rocco Baldelli. His tools border on being ridiculously good, and Red Sox officials raved over what they saw from him this fall at their Dominican camp. He combines plus power with plus-plus speed, plays a very good center field, and has a big-time arm. His silky smooth actions and extreme athleticism gives him a ceiling higher than any player in the system.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 12, 2009 5:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sweet Jesus#$%@%%&^&*!@
Perfect World Projection: Westmoreland could be the kind of player people thought Grady Sizemore would become.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 12, 2009 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
People must have thought Grady Sizemore was going to be a Ken Griffey/Jesus Christ hybrid.
I’ll take what Sizemore has done so far in his career.
Right here. Right now.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 13, 2009 1:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't know
i don’t remember Grady being quite that hyped… at least not initially…
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 2:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lars Anderson
reasons for the lousy season? injured? exposed at higher levels? straight up overrated?
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 12, 2009 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Probably back issues,
then losing confidence after an early season diminishing performance.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 12, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention he was probably never as good as his 2008 slash line suggested
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 12, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still like that bat, if he can fix that swing I can see a 40 HR season in that bat
He still to this day has hit the hardest ball i’ve ever heard off the bat.
by Bravesin07 on Nov 12, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well Jason Botts and Austin Kearns have hit two of the hardest balls I've ever seen/heard
Corey Smith not too far behind.
guess what, doesn’t mean any of them are going to have 40 HR seasons.
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 2:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm very high on Gibson
This kid is going to be an allstar 2nd baseman somewhere in baseball. Great attitude, great eye, great speed, and a slim chance of developing 15-20 HR pop. He hits balls to all field and has good doubles power right now. Westmoreland if he can stay healthy is going to be a superstar, plus plus speed and plus bat speed.
by Bravesin07 on Nov 12, 2009 6:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You're either trolling or you've become a carciature of yourself
EVERY PROSPECT WITH ANY PROJECTABLE FUTURE IS GOING TO THE HALL OF FAME WOOOOO
by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 12, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im not following you
Westmoreland’s perfect world projection in the top 11’s last year was “five tool superstar.” He has superstar/HOF upside and phenomenal tools that stick out when you see him on the field. I dont know how many people Ive talked to or read that said he was the best player they saw this year.
Im not so high on Gibson, but its not like he was calling HOF on him. A lot of people really like him. A lot of other people don’t buy his power. I think the power limits his upside pretty seriously, but he could still be a really good player.
by alskor on Nov 12, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Both guys have immense upside.
I’ve heard this kind of stuff from numerous scouts and baseball officials.
…Have yet to hear the 15-20 home run potential tag on Gibson, but then again, Braves has seen the guy in-person multiple times, so I value his opinion.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 12, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The kid is 6'1 and is still skinny as a rail
He hits balls to all fields and has a very good eye.
by Bravesin07 on Nov 12, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I will say that his .395 OBP is hella erotic.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 12, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can see 15 homeruns...
when in high achool you could tell he was always the best player on the field. That could be because he played in Delaware, but I really like his potential. He seems like he has the talent to go 290-15-20 in a season which would be a possible all star at second.
by joegonzo on Nov 12, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gotta temper this with...
ALOT of top prospects were the best player on the field in high school…
by slickterp on Nov 14, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 14, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nah
Westmoreland has a great eye at the plate which IMO will aide him greatly.
by Bravesin07 on Nov 12, 2009 7:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
1-15
this is one of the most talented farm systems in baseball.
by joegonzo on Nov 12, 2009 8:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agree
In terms of depth, Cleveland is probably the only system deeper. There are systems with more top end talent, Texas certainly comes to mind, but a top 15 without guys like Navarro, Exposito, Younginer, and Kendall Volz (personal fav of mine) is REALLY deep.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Nov 12, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree
But its definitely missing a marquee guy. Lars sucked, the high upside guys are all in the low minors (Kelly, Westmoreland) and the high minors guys are very good, but not top notch (Reddick, Kalish, Tazawa).
Its definitely a top half (top 15) system to me, but I don’t know how high it can go. It will probably rank very high on BP, considering there are two 5 star and two 4 star guys, but still…
by alskor on Nov 12, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
even Almanzar is out of the top 15, Goldstein said he still has a massive ceiling.
by Bravesin07 on Nov 12, 2009 9:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nor Luis Exposito, Felix Doubront, Madison Younginer, Middlebrooks, Kyle Weiland, Tim Federowicz, Kendal Volz…
by alskor on Nov 12, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't sleep on Roman Mendez, either, folks.
Huge ceiling.
Supposedly hit 97 late this year in the GCL.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 12, 2009 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i don't think this system is that great you guys
Do they even have a top 25 prospect?
I guess Westmoreland might hit BA’s [and BP’s after those excerpts posted]… but he’s not in low-A yet…. Kelly’s ceiling isn’t quite Top-25, and I’m not drinking the Kalish kool-aid… is he really a top 100 spect? {I like Pimentel much better}
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 2:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Kalish is definitely top 100 for me
Good reviews on his defense this year and it looks like he’ll stick in CF. He has a great approach at the plate and a good amount of speed and power. He was already on BA’s top 100 before his wrist injury and he bounced back stronger than ever. He’s pretty close to top 50 IMHO.
You’ve definitely hit on what I dont like about this system right now, though. Im totally on the Westmoreland bandwagon, but he’s only played in short season. For a #2 prospect, Kelly doesn’t really have a real front of the rotation projection, nor is he close to the majors. I do love Kalish and Reddick, though. Plus Rizzo is tremendously underrated, and I usually hate 1B prospects.
by alskor on Nov 13, 2009 3:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i might like Reddick and Pimentel more than others
and I thought I had Kelly and Westmoreland pretty accurate on my list… not sold on the others… Iglesias is intriguing of course… but I don’t know if this is a top 10 system.
i’d rather have:
Cleveland
Texas
Kansas City
Tampa
Atlanta
Florida
Philly
San Fran
Colorado
off the top of my head
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 4:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah
Washington too obviously. if only for Strasburg and Norris… cuz you know Stras alone is more valuable than most teams top 3 prospects
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 4:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Based on your preliminary list
it looks like an argument could easily be made this is a top10 system; without a doubt firmly in the top 15
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not much of a concession imo
I don’t see KC, Florida, San Fran, or Washington as clear cut collections of superior talent.
Then again, you are a rays fan so I’ll take what I can get haha
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
florida, san fran, and washington all have 2 guys above any one in boston
i’ll take 2 top 30 prospects over 4 top 100s any day of the week.
it does depend on the prospects of course, but
Strasburg/Norris
Stanton/Morrison
Posey/Bumgarner .
Westmoreland/Kelly/Reddick/Kalish/Pimentel … i couldn’t really fault you for picking boston, but i wouldn’t. they may very well be my 11th
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're conveniently ignoring the one thing that makes Boston's system valuable
that is depth. Obviously any rational person would hold Strasburg in higher regard than anybody in Boston’s minor leagues, but no one is arguing the Sox are top heavy.
By your standards, anyone of those teams would suffer tremendously if one of their top two prospects floundered, given that according to you their system’s value lies in having just two very good players. Boston could absorb 4 or 5 piss poor seasons from their top 15 and keep on chugging. IMO, that kind of depth is at least equally beneficial to having two high upside/low floor blue chippers.
I think you have to look at a system in its entirety rather than simply at the prospects you like more than others.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what?
i emphasized their depth by listing five names instead of 2.
and: " IMO, that kind of depth is at least equally beneficial to having two high upside/low floor blue chippers."
“high upside/low floor” ? please tell me how guys like Kelly and Westmoreland have higher floors than blue chips like Stanton/Strasburg/Posey…. that makes zero sense. zero. sense.
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did I say Westmoreland or Kelly had a higher floor?
No I did not, I said I preferred a multitude of depth rather than two high upside/low floor players.
You mentioned two players from each system you’d prefer over any in Boston’s, how does that accurately measure the depth?
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah, KC
… I’ll take their top 7 over boston and almost anyone else’s as far as depth +upside is concerned, for sure
Crow/Montgomery/Moustakas/Duffy/Myers/Melville/Hosmer
Westmoreland/Kelly/Reddick/Kalish/Pimentel/Rizzo/Iglesias
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't
I don’t see a player with upside comparable to Westmoreland
Hosmer is coming off an abysmal season, he certainly still has upside, but I can’t believe his stock hasn’t fallen. The same can be said about Moose.
I would definitely take Crow/Montgomery > Kelly/Pimentel but I think the gap between the two teams, if there is one, isn’t nearly as large as you’re suggesting.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That actually seems pretty even to me
But I completely see where youre coming from on that.
by alskor on Nov 13, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Its right on the border for me
Definitely a top 15, as I said above. Not sure if it cracks top 10.
Is that in order above? You dont have KC that high, do you? Comparable top to Boston, no stud and significantly less depth – especially in position players.
by alskor on Nov 13, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not in order
just as i thought of them .
KC is interesting though. I think Crow is borderline studly. I have him ranked pretty close to Kelly, but obviously he’s older [beat some injury nexus] and has a higher ceiling. and Moose Tacos is my pick for huge bounce-back
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah.
I dont buy Moose at all anymore.Reasonably high on Hosmer, though. I like Crow, but I dont see him as a stud.
by alskor on Nov 13, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm almost there, too.
I was hatin’ on Moose last year even when he was doing moderately well.
Call me crazy, but I’m just not a fan of 5-foot-6 troll-like looking creatures.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 13, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
I loved him as a SS/maybe 3B when he was drafted. Now he’s kind of a stocky, stiff guy with a good arm. OK, that’s too harsh, but there’s too much of that type in Moose for me to get very excited. Im sure he’ll hit and be a pretty good major leaguer, but I no longer see star there – and that’s what I bought into hard when he was drafted.
by alskor on Nov 13, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This system doesn't do it for me either
But I’m a sucker for high-end talent in the high minors.
by dkdc on Nov 13, 2009 3:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kalish had something close to, if not, a .900 OPS in his last 2 months in AA.
MiLB.com has all the season splits erased for AFL participants.
It’s hella annoying.
And, all his tools are good.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 13, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i use firstinning.com
Kalish was terrible in May and June… very good in July and August. and scorching hot in 36 September ABs.
i guess he didn’t jump out at me enough… .169 ISOP, .340 wOBA in 391 AA ABs
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.360 wOBA in AA
Not .340. And that’s pretty good for a 21 year old in his first exposure, especially given his first month or so there. And he did .428 in the FSL.
I have to admit I wasn’t high on him due to lack of production until this year, although folks said he had some tools. Kelly, I agree, as a pitcher, he is quite good, but most of that is on preternaturally great command I think would be the right word. Not a lack of stuff, but probably not a, forgive the word, an ace.
Back to an earlier thread, it is true that the system is deep without the top end guy, but i think Westmoreleand will be that guy. Probably by mid-season next year he’ll start being chatted up as top 10 for 2011. It’sa deep system and top 10 to me.
by wobatus on Nov 13, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FI has him at .341 wOBA
where is it .360?
that’s weird
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=paB06014&position=OF
.341 is his OBP, not his wOBA. Per fangraphs. Although that seems a little high considering the obp.
by wobatus on Nov 13, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok, might be a typo at Fi then
http://firstinning.com/players/Ryan-Kalish-a/
…but .360 wOBA does seem high with a slash line of .271/.341/.440 , doesn’t it?
by daveh33 on Nov 13, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His numbers were raped by an abnormally abysmal first two months.
He might have above-avg/plus tools across the board at a premium position with solid plate discipline.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 13, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Incredibly tactless use of the word “raped” there, my friend.
by CoolCat23 on Nov 14, 2009 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
top end talent is great
and yes you need to develop a star every once and a while to remain competitive
but for a team like the red sox, who have the money to sign the stars they don’t develop, a system this deep goes a really long way in putting the necessary complementary pieces in around the studs they sign… you can’t just have 2-3 top prospects and expect to sign all those role players in FA cause players get overpriced in FA…. i’d rather have the 90% of my team be role players off my farm and break the bank for a CC/teiix/holliday/mauer et al
by PHGold09 on Nov 13, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What'd you guys think of...
Fuentes, their first round pick?
Bloodlines are nice being related to Carlos Beltran…really young too…nobody seems uber-high on him yet there’s stuff to like. If his work ethic is anything like his uncles, then his perceived upside might be way lower than his actual upside.
by SenorGato on Nov 13, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
i've noticed the past few years
“overdrafts” tend to get underrated.
Sanchez this year. Castro last year.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Nov 13, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeppers
I think the general prospect-watching community tends to greatly overestimate the difference between a guy who is a “consensus” slot pick and an “overdraft”, and certainly to a much greater extent than actual MLB organizations do so. And teams certainly don’t get emotionally attached to specific draft prospects in a way that I’ve seen occur here (good example: people being lovesick about Tyler Matzek this year around these parts).
To use the specific case of Jason Castro, it wasn’t like there were any teams out there that thought the guy was a bum. Teams put together lists of guys they like. And then each team takes the guy that’s at the top of their list.
by mrkupe on Nov 13, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really bad pick IMO.
His ceiling is way too low, and I don’t ever see him starting for Boston.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 13, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
I like his ceiling. I definitely see some power projection there and I love the athleticism. He’s real thin and projectable – and while he’s impressively polished in some aspects of his game, he’s also raw in areas where I can see lots of improvement. I have no problem spending late first rounders on guys like this… especially when they drop big bucks getting guys who fall later in the draft.
by alskor on Nov 13, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Join the community and dive in!
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
