BP's Red Sox Top 15 Prospects
by larry on Nov 12, 2009 12:24 PM EST
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PrintFive-Star Prospects
1. Ryan Westmoreland, CF
2. Casey Kelly RHP/SS
Four-Star Prospects
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Ryan Kalish, OF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
6. Jose Iglesias, SS
7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Reymond Fuentes, CF
11. Derrik Gibson, 2B/SSFour More:
12. David Renfroe, RHP/SS: Like Kelly, he's another big-bonus, two-way star, but Renfroe will begin his career as an infielder, and he projects as a prototypical third baseman due to his size, power potential, and arm.
13. Alex Wilson, RHP: He had a 0.50 ERA in New York-Penn League while giving up just 10 hits in 36 innings, but he's already 23, so he should dominate. Still, his fastball/slider combo is impressive.
14. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP: The young Dominican righty still has plus command and plenty of projection, but performances have been so-so.
15. Che-Hsuan Lin, LF: Lin’s tools still impress, his defense remains outstanding, his numbers... not so much, but Red Sox officials remain very high on him....
The Sleeper: Over-slot 2008 draftee Peter Hissey had a so-so pro debut on paper, batting .279/.356/.347 at Low-A Greenville, but scouts loved the tools and saw consistent progress throughout the year, as he hit .321 after the all-star break.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
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Younginer
Should have been on here, likely instead of Wilson or Lin.
5-15 could pretty much be listed in any order
Who loves orange soda?
Lars Anderson
reasons for the lousy season? injured? exposed at higher levels? straight up overrated?
I'm very high on Gibson
This kid is going to be an allstar 2nd baseman somewhere in baseball. Great attitude, great eye, great speed, and a slim chance of developing 15-20 HR pop. He hits balls to all field and has good doubles power right now. Westmoreland if he can stay healthy is going to be a superstar, plus plus speed and plus bat speed.
You're either trolling or you've become a carciature of yourself
EVERY PROSPECT WITH ANY PROJECTABLE FUTURE IS GOING TO THE HALL OF FAME WOOOOO
by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 12, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
Im not following you
Westmoreland’s perfect world projection in the top 11’s last year was “five tool superstar.” He has superstar/HOF upside and phenomenal tools that stick out when you see him on the field. I dont know how many people Ive talked to or read that said he was the best player they saw this year.
Im not so high on Gibson, but its not like he was calling HOF on him. A lot of people really like him. A lot of other people don’t buy his power. I think the power limits his upside pretty seriously, but he could still be a really good player.
nah
Westmoreland has a great eye at the plate which IMO will aide him greatly.
Agree
In terms of depth, Cleveland is probably the only system deeper. There are systems with more top end talent, Texas certainly comes to mind, but a top 15 without guys like Navarro, Exposito, Younginer, and Kendall Volz (personal fav of mine) is REALLY deep.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Nov 12, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
I would agree
But its definitely missing a marquee guy. Lars sucked, the high upside guys are all in the low minors (Kelly, Westmoreland) and the high minors guys are very good, but not top notch (Reddick, Kalish, Tazawa).
Its definitely a top half (top 15) system to me, but I don’t know how high it can go. It will probably rank very high on BP, considering there are two 5 star and two 4 star guys, but still…
i don't think this system is that great you guys
Do they even have a top 25 prospect?
I guess Westmoreland might hit BA’s [and BP’s after those excerpts posted]… but he’s not in low-A yet…. Kelly’s ceiling isn’t quite Top-25, and I’m not drinking the Kalish kool-aid… is he really a top 100 spect? {I like Pimentel much better}
Kalish is definitely top 100 for me
Good reviews on his defense this year and it looks like he’ll stick in CF. He has a great approach at the plate and a good amount of speed and power. He was already on BA’s top 100 before his wrist injury and he bounced back stronger than ever. He’s pretty close to top 50 IMHO.
You’ve definitely hit on what I dont like about this system right now, though. Im totally on the Westmoreland bandwagon, but he’s only played in short season. For a #2 prospect, Kelly doesn’t really have a real front of the rotation projection, nor is he close to the majors. I do love Kalish and Reddick, though. Plus Rizzo is tremendously underrated, and I usually hate 1B prospects.
i might like Reddick and Pimentel more than others
and I thought I had Kelly and Westmoreland pretty accurate on my list… not sold on the others… Iglesias is intriguing of course… but I don’t know if this is a top 10 system.
i’d rather have:
Cleveland
Texas
Kansas City
Tampa
Atlanta
Florida
Philly
San Fran
Colorado
off the top of my head
oh yeah
Washington too obviously. if only for Strasburg and Norris… cuz you know Stras alone is more valuable than most teams top 3 prospects
Based on your preliminary list
it looks like an argument could easily be made this is a top10 system; without a doubt firmly in the top 15
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Not much of a concession imo
I don’t see KC, Florida, San Fran, or Washington as clear cut collections of superior talent.
Then again, you are a rays fan so I’ll take what I can get haha
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
florida, san fran, and washington all have 2 guys above any one in boston
i’ll take 2 top 30 prospects over 4 top 100s any day of the week.
it does depend on the prospects of course, but
Strasburg/Norris
Stanton/Morrison
Posey/Bumgarner .
Westmoreland/Kelly/Reddick/Kalish/Pimentel … i couldn’t really fault you for picking boston, but i wouldn’t. they may very well be my 11th
You're conveniently ignoring the one thing that makes Boston's system valuable
that is depth. Obviously any rational person would hold Strasburg in higher regard than anybody in Boston’s minor leagues, but no one is arguing the Sox are top heavy.
By your standards, anyone of those teams would suffer tremendously if one of their top two prospects floundered, given that according to you their system’s value lies in having just two very good players. Boston could absorb 4 or 5 piss poor seasons from their top 15 and keep on chugging. IMO, that kind of depth is at least equally beneficial to having two high upside/low floor blue chippers.
I think you have to look at a system in its entirety rather than simply at the prospects you like more than others.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
what?
i emphasized their depth by listing five names instead of 2.
and: " IMO, that kind of depth is at least equally beneficial to having two high upside/low floor blue chippers."
“high upside/low floor” ? please tell me how guys like Kelly and Westmoreland have higher floors than blue chips like Stanton/Strasburg/Posey…. that makes zero sense. zero. sense.
Did I say Westmoreland or Kelly had a higher floor?
No I did not, I said I preferred a multitude of depth rather than two high upside/low floor players.
You mentioned two players from each system you’d prefer over any in Boston’s, how does that accurately measure the depth?
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
oh yeah, KC
… I’ll take their top 7 over boston and almost anyone else’s as far as depth +upside is concerned, for sure
Crow/Montgomery/Moustakas/Duffy/Myers/Melville/Hosmer
Westmoreland/Kelly/Reddick/Kalish/Pimentel/Rizzo/Iglesias
I wouldn't
I don’t see a player with upside comparable to Westmoreland
Hosmer is coming off an abysmal season, he certainly still has upside, but I can’t believe his stock hasn’t fallen. The same can be said about Moose.
I would definitely take Crow/Montgomery > Kelly/Pimentel but I think the gap between the two teams, if there is one, isn’t nearly as large as you’re suggesting.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Nov 13, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Its right on the border for me
Definitely a top 15, as I said above. Not sure if it cracks top 10.
Is that in order above? You dont have KC that high, do you? Comparable top to Boston, no stud and significantly less depth – especially in position players.
not in order
just as i thought of them .
KC is interesting though. I think Crow is borderline studly. I have him ranked pretty close to Kelly, but obviously he’s older [beat some injury nexus] and has a higher ceiling. and Moose Tacos is my pick for huge bounce-back
This system doesn't do it for me either
But I’m a sucker for high-end talent in the high minors.
top end talent is great
and yes you need to develop a star every once and a while to remain competitive
but for a team like the red sox, who have the money to sign the stars they don’t develop, a system this deep goes a really long way in putting the necessary complementary pieces in around the studs they sign… you can’t just have 2-3 top prospects and expect to sign all those role players in FA cause players get overpriced in FA…. i’d rather have the 90% of my team be role players off my farm and break the bank for a CC/teiix/holliday/mauer et al
What'd you guys think of...
Fuentes, their first round pick?
Bloodlines are nice being related to Carlos Beltran…really young too…nobody seems uber-high on him yet there’s stuff to like. If his work ethic is anything like his uncles, then his perceived upside might be way lower than his actual upside.
i've noticed the past few years
“overdrafts” tend to get underrated.
Sanchez this year. Castro last year.
baseball rules.
yeppers
I think the general prospect-watching community tends to greatly overestimate the difference between a guy who is a “consensus” slot pick and an “overdraft”, and certainly to a much greater extent than actual MLB organizations do so. And teams certainly don’t get emotionally attached to specific draft prospects in a way that I’ve seen occur here (good example: people being lovesick about Tyler Matzek this year around these parts).
To use the specific case of Jason Castro, it wasn’t like there were any teams out there that thought the guy was a bum. Teams put together lists of guys they like. And then each team takes the guy that’s at the top of their list.
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