Oh the Mets and what will never happen
by sagecoll on Nov 11, 2009 1:26 PM EST
50 comments
For most of you outside of the NY and immune to the hysteria of NY sports radio with callers who suggest the Mets "Package Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy and a prospect for Joe Mauer or Miguel Cabrera" ---I envy you. It's at that point that I turn on the Ipod and turn off the radio.
So in reaction to my frustration with these illogical individuals that have become the laughing stock of most baseball fans, I give you my *perhaps* sensible wish for the Mets front office this offseason.
1) Make a push for Matt Holliday= Going by some calculations over at Drivelinemechanics, I think a contract in the range of 5 yrs, 90-100mil is fair (Holiday is not Teixeira and 18mil+/yr is what Carlos Beltran is making). I wouldn't go above 20 mil/yr
2) Sign 2 SP's---preferably Rich Harden and Justin Duchsherer. I pick these 2 because I believe that Harden's injury woes are behind him and is undervalued in the market and Duchsherer for the same reason. I sign them both for incentive laden contracts worth about 3-4 years. Harden's with a floor of 6 mil/yr and ceiling of 12mil/yr, Duke's with a floor of 4 mil/yr, and ceiling of 10 mil/yr.--------------Ideally the contracts would be a 3 year deal for both. Harden's worth about 32 mil. Duke's- 20 mil.
3) Fill the bench with high wOBA and/or good fielding players. I think bringing in players such as Jamey Carroll, Scott Podsednik, and even Jason Giambi could help the team.
4) Sign good fielding backup catcher that is not an A or B free agent--Ideally Henry Blanco
5) Move Oliver Perez to the Bullpen
6) Sit Jeff Francoeur and start Angel Pagan --numbers speak for themselves, don't expect much argument over this.
With these moves in mind the lineup would look like this:
Position/Name/Salary/wOBA/UZR above average/WAR for 2009 (or 2008 if significantly injured in 09')...Also Catching stats are taken from calculations over at Driveline Mechanics (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in)
(WAR, Fielding Numbers and wOBA is taken from Fangraphs.com, Salaries from Cot's baseball contracts and/or anticipated values)
C) Omir Santos 400k/298/ 2.4/1.0
1B) Daniel Murphy 400k/318/2.2/.6
2B) Luis Castillo 6mil/337/-10.4/1.6
SS) Jose Reyes 9mil/366/0/5.9 (08)
3B) David Wright 10mil/368/-10.4/3.4
LF) Matt Holiday 19mil/390/5.7/5.7
CF) Carlos Beltran 18.5mil/380/8.8/6.7 (08)
RF) Angel Pagan 400k/358/5.8/2.8
B) Jeff Francoeur ~4mil/313/-6.1/0
B) Jason Giambi (minor league contract) 400k/327/-5.5/-.2
B) Scott Podsednik 600k/338/-1.4/1.7
B) Jamey Carroll 800k/317/5.0/1.5
B) Henry Blanco 400k/310/5.7/1.2
B) Nick Evans 400k/287/-3.1/-.5
Pitching stats are taken from Fangraphs.
Position/Name/Salary/FIP/WAR
SP) Johan Santana 21mil/3.79/2.8
SP) Rich Harden 6mil/4.35/1.7
SP) Justin Duchsherer 4mil/3.69/3 (08)
SP) Mike Pelfrey 500k/4.39/1.8
SP) John Maine 3mil/4.57/.6
LR/Spot Starter) Jon Niese 400k/3.25/.6
MR) Sean Green 400k/4.42/-.1
MR) Bobby Parnell 400k/4.3/.5
MR) Pedro Feliciano ~1.8/3.55/.6
SU) Oliver Perez 12mil/6.40/-.8
CL) Francisco Rodriguez 11.5mil/4.01/.3
Thoughts? Too ambitious?
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daniel murphy sucks...
he would be the worst 1st basemen in the whole MLB if given full at bats there…
by matthewmafa on Nov 11, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Aubrey Huff begs to differ.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i would bet on aubrey huff over
this overrated peice of crap daniel miurphy
by matthewmafa on Nov 11, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
check fangraphs, cuz you'd be totally wrong.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
both are terrible
Murphy, a .741 OPS is what you would expect from a slick fielding SS, not the most important offesnive position on the field. Huff was even worse last year (but a better track record over the last 10 years).
Maybe you can argue that Huff is the worse option because he’s making $8,000,000 per while Murphy is league min
by ScottAZ on Nov 12, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Murphy's shown some pretty decent skills...
but he still hasn’t brought them together at the same time.
He’s shown the ability to hit 15 HR pretty easily, and his second half pace would put him over 50 doubles in a full season. He’s also shown the ability to take a walk in the minors, and makes good contact.
If he can put that together next year, along with good defense, he wouldn’t hurt you at 1B. There’s not a lot of upside there though, so don’t take it further than face value.
by PissedMick on Nov 11, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so hes basically a lesser james loney
with less defense and only 38 walks in 556 PA… slugging .420 with a OBP of .310 hurts when your a first baseman…
by matthewmafa on Nov 11, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That wasn't really the point at all, no.
by PissedMick on Nov 11, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well im just saying
loney is a bottom 3 first basemen in the mlb offensively and hes basically the same or less then him… and his defense is nowhere near loneys either..
by matthewmafa on Nov 11, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Umm...
Loney UZR/150 = 1.2
Murphy UZR/150 = 7.6
by LCT on Nov 11, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Murphy's certainly not a plus at 1B with the bat.
He’s above replacement level there though, and there’s reason to think he’ll improve as I said above. I wouldn’t want him as my team’s 1B, but he’s far from the team’s worst problem if he starts there next year.
As for defense, there’s every reason to think Murphy will be a very good defensive 1B. He certainly has more athletic ability than most players at the position. The only statistical data we have has Murphy as an easily better defender than Loney, though the sample’s not nearly large enough to be conclusive.
I’m getting backed into the ‘Dan Murphy supporter’ corner here. I don’t think he’s a great player. I just disagree with your assertion that he’s a train wreck at 1B.
by PissedMick on Nov 11, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Murphy is five times the defensive first baseman Loney would ever be.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
...because the defensive data disagrees with you, so you'd look like a jackass?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 13, 2009 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think anyone brought up james loney
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok, but what about Nick Evans ?
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 12, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like the inclusion of WAR, the fact that I'm a Mets fan...
but you probably want to post this here:
www.amazinevenue.com
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
whoops
that should be www.amazinavenue.com
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really feel like Bengie Molina would be a great fit in Queens.
Backup plan of Barajas. Santos/Thole won’t cut it.
Ive never liked Murphy. Im glad people finally realize he can’t play anywhere but 1B – and his bat is pretty poor there. He can hit, but for a 1B? Nothing special at all.
Holliday would be a great fit, of course, but then again you can say that about pretty much 2/3 of the teams in baseball.
I can see them going for one of the Harden/Duchscherer types… and then something a bit less behind that. No need to overdo it with a few decent arms that could be ready next year. Plus, I think those types will cost more than anticipated. Everyone wants in on those kind of starters now…
by alskor on Nov 11, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also, no way Podsednik goes to be a bench player. He’ll get a starting job somewhere.
This is a pretty good team If they stay healthy theyre right there, but without Holliday or a comparable bat theyre still a half step behind the Phils and Braves.
by alskor on Nov 11, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Molina is terrible at this point
We don’t need another player with a sub .300 OBP, he defensive is not good anymore, he’s slow as hell. What’s his upside? 15 homers for 2 or 3 years at 8 million a year. Not worth it.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 12, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fran...
was very good after joining the Mets imo.
by Havok1517 on Nov 11, 2009 3:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not really
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 12, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they sign one starter...
and could see them signing Molina too as someone suggested above. A starter like Randy Wolf, Bengie Molina, and Matt Holliday would be a pretty successful offseason. I think they might sign a stop gap 1st baseman too untuil Ike Davis is ready. Someone like Jim Thome or maybe even Xavier Nady and when Davis is ready he could move over to right field.
by joegonzo on Nov 11, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Wolf, Molina, Holliday and a 1B would be a great offseason for the Mets. If they can somehow make that Castillo for Overbay deal happen… well, that would be great, but Im sure that was BS. Still, salary dump Castillo for a 1B and sign Orlando Hudson (a longtime Minaya target) and theyre in great shape.
Maybe then can get in on the Reds firesale (Phillips?), but its unclear what they have to spend… though apparently, the Wilpons werent nearly as hurt by the Madoff scheme as previously reported.
by alskor on Nov 11, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bengie Molina is bad and attached to type A compensation
Greg Zaun should be better and without losing any pick
by LCT on Nov 11, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mets sucked bad enough...
to not lose their first round pick. Also, if they made the Castillo for Overbay deal, signed Hudson, and did the rest that I said then they will end up having a good season. I think they also might sign one of the risky pitchers like Ben Sheets.
C Bengie Molina
1B Lyle Overbay
2B Orlando Hudson
SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
LF Matt Holliday
CF Carlos Beltran
RF Jeff Francoeur(Until F-Mart is ready)
1 Johan Santana
2 Randy Wolf
3 Mike Pelfrey
4 Ben Sheets
5 Oliver Perez or John Niese(I think Niese should be their number 5)
by joegonzo on Nov 11, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
a 2nd round pick i worth more than Molina
by LCT on Nov 11, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not if...
hes the difference between them making the World Series or not.
by joegonzo on Nov 11, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but he wouldn't be...
considering, like LCT said, he’s bad.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What...
where are you getting this from? He is a solid enough defensive catcher to where his bat makes him above average overall. He could bat around 270 with 20 homers which is really good from a catcher. The only reason the Giants aren’t looking to resign him is because they have Buster Posey ready to take over. The Mets have no one even close to Buster Posey anywhere in their system, the best they have is Josh Thole. Bengie Molina wouldn’t be blocking anyone and the Mets would only have to give up a second round pick which they would probably waste or give up anyway.
by joegonzo on Nov 12, 2009 7:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.270 with a .295 OBP is not good
in fact it’s bad, really bad.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 12, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Thole RIGHT NOW
is better than Bengie Molina.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 13, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No thanks
I don’t want Molina or Hudson at all. Zaun and Polanco or Lopez would be more productive at a cheaper price. Overbay isn’t that big of an improvement over Murphy, and Murphy is only making the minimum. And finally, should we get Holliday, I want Pagan in right over Francoeur.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 12, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Podsednik
apparently wants about 7 mil per year and I assume he wants to start
Grab Some Pine Meat!
by Gobroks on Nov 11, 2009 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not bad
I don’t love the plan, but I do think it would at least be possible. It looks better if Ike Davis can replace Murphy effectively soon, if Thole can even be a solid regular in the bigs, and if Martinez can replace Pagan/Franceour soon.
It’s still a high risk plan, as it counts on health from last year’s casualties as well as Harden and Duchsher. But I don’t think they have any choice but to roll the dice with the Wright/Beltran/Reyes/Santana core anyway.
by aap212 on Nov 11, 2009 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if this is legal
Buy to me the best move the Mets can do is to trade their 3 best prospects for Jack Z or Theo Epstein
by LCT on Nov 11, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Alright I guess I should give my rationale for what I'm doing and respond to others
1) Statistically Benji Molina is in the bottom tier defensively among catchers. (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in)
I have no problem starting Santos, and I’d let Thole start in AAA to refine his skills. Blanco doesn’t cost the mets a draft pick and is one of the league’s top fielders with a serviceable bat for his position.
2) If the Lyle Overbay/Castillo/Bradley deal is actually on the table, easy no brainer deal. If not, take what you got. Murphy can be dealt, but statistically, he’s as good as James Loney, and if O-dog is asking for 12 mil or under over 3 years. Grab him.
3) Jeff Francoeur sucks. -see http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/francoeur-in-queens
4) I don’t like the idea of Randy Wolf in the rotation. Wolf is a fly-ball pitcher, which does not bode well for Citi-field. Also his numbers last year were vastly helped by a low BABIP.
I’m not afraid of Harden’s injury history. If you look at the amount of days he has spent on the DL, It has steadily decreased the past 3 years from 100+ in 07’, to 38 in 08’, to 24 last year. He’s also never had TJ.
Duchsherer is a an interesting candidate that I like because he has bullpen experience, and need be he can transition to a set up role, allowing someone like Niese to take a rotation spot.
Niese will get to battle in spring training, but I don’t feel the need to rush him.
5) Oliver Perez doesn’t belong in the rotation. If the mets were smart they’d realize “Ok we made a mistake signing this guy long term, now he can bring our team down if we give him innings and have him blow games as a starter, or we can let him pitch in relief and hopefully earn back the support of NY”. That’s why I’d put him in a setup role going into spring training. Let him wing fastballs and secondary like Joba and not worry about going 3-5 innings
6) F-Mart needs time. Nuff said—the guy has been rushed for 3 years.
7) If the mets can’t nab Pods, grab Matt Murton—very underrated, and needs a shot
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/8/27/1004559/f-a-t-alert-update-how-good-is
8) Angel Pagan is good. With almost 3 WAR, a wOBA at just about 360, and a UZR around 6, he’s a damn good player. And the best part is he’s only costing the mets the league min. There is no one on the market worth replacing him.
by sagecoll on Nov 11, 2009 7:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
why
doesn’t it bode well for randy wolf to be a flyball pitcher in citifield?
by wobatus on Nov 11, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
seriously
its better to be a fly ball pitcher in that huge ballpark… Perfect Fit
by matthewmafa on Nov 11, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
to sagecoll
please post this at amazinavenue.com or Metsblog.com
Mets fans seem to run the blog universe. Let’s keep the Mets talk where it needs to be.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 11, 2009 7:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
sorry
I signed up for amazinave, but I can’t post for 2 days.
by sagecoll on Nov 11, 2009 8:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was only one
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 12, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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