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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

Hypothetical Trade Idea - Grady Sizemore to the Cubs

What are your thoughts on a possible Grady Sizemore trade to the Cubs? Maybe something like 3B Josh Vitters, SS Starlin Castro, and an arm like Jay Jackson or Andrew Cashner might make sense.

Pros of this deal:
- The Cubs add a superstar CF.
- The Indians brighten their future even more.

Cons of this deal:
- The Indians aren't likely to deal the face of their franchise, regardless of when they'll next be competing.
- I don't know if the Cubs would be willing to give up this package, especially considering Sizemore has been injury-plagued recently and is coming off of a down year when he was healthy.

As a White Sox fan, I'd hate to see this happen on both ends.

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I think it would take a package of...

Vitters, Castro, Cashner, and Jackson would work. It might even take more than that to get one of the games best young players. They might have to add another mid tier prospect to make it work.

by joegonzo on Nov 1, 2009 12:32 PM EST reply actions  

LMAO

never happen. just ridiculous to even discuss it.

by cubsfan1 on Nov 1, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions  

It isn't ridiculous

They moved Wood and DeRosa for Milton Bradley. That is ridiculous, but it happened.
I don’t see Cleveland doing that deal but I would say it would take that much to move him.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by Matt Garrioch on Nov 1, 2009 1:03 PM EST reply actions  

I agree that I think it is Plausible

Will it happen or even get discussed? probably not?

but if it did?

I think it could work out well for both sides.

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 1, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't see why either team would do that

Sizemore is incredibly cheap (10:$5.6M, 11:$7.5M, 12:$8.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)) and really popular in Cleveland. The Cubs, meanwhile, are trying to bolster their farm system and might be leery of his 2009 production. I don’t think they’d be willing to part with their four best prospects in this scenario.

by Outshined_One on Nov 1, 2009 1:03 PM EST reply actions  

The Indians aren't competing any time soon

Getting a package like this, and spending the money they save from Sizemore to spend elsewhere (Draft, International signings) would do wonders for their future. And they’ve already showed they’re willing to deal their stars, dealing Sabathia, Lee, and Martinez since July of ’08.

by kmule on Nov 1, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

A package like this?

If the Indians made Grady available, it wouldn’t be for Vitters and co.

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Nov 1, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

By package like this

I mean high upside package. Castro can be a superstar SS. Vitters can be a superstar 3B. Sure, the Indians already have Chisenhall. So what? He’s not a lock to become the next great thing in Cleveland. I’m sure the Indians wouldn’t mind having the luxury of both Chisenhall and Vitters in their system.

by kmule on Nov 1, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sure they wouldn't mind Vitters

but not at the cost of their best player

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Nov 1, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Sizemore

is about 4 years older than all the “upside” guys you mention.

If Sizemore were 30, then maybe. But he’s still got a decade of elite performance left. Unless the Cubs had a pair of absolutely elite prospects to offer (like Hanley and Anibal Sanchez at the time), then it’s a laughable idea.

by Galt on Nov 1, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Sizemore's 27

Castro – 19
Vitters – 20

Jackson – 22 (just celebrated his Birthday on the 27th)
Cashner – 23

You think he’ll be putting up a .275/.367/.485 (career line thus far) line when he’s 37? What if he never bounces back from his injuries? In comparison, not to talent, just position really, Andruw Jones flamed out after he was 29 years old.

by kmule on Nov 1, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

What do you mean what if he never bounces back from his injuries?

Games played by Sizemore by season:
2005: 158
2006: 162
2007: 162
2008: 157
2009: 106 (only year injured)

This is the first year he’s had a major injury. Sizemore is also in a lot better shape than Andruw Jones. Not saying he’s not going to decline in his 30s, but he has a good history health-wise.

Also kmule, why are the Indians not going to compete anytime soon? They have an excellent young core of position players (Sizemore, Choo, A. Cabrera and LaPorta), a likely top 5 minor league system (Santana, Chisenhall, Rondon and company) and play in the worst division in baseball. I’m not saying the Indians are some kind of dynasty in the making, but they have a lot of talent already on the big league ballclub and in the minors for them to be disregarded as a 3-5 year rebuild.

by Alex Trebek on Nov 1, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

My bad. I should have phrased things better.

I realize this is the first year he was injured. He’s having two surgeries this offseason (elbow and abdominal). Even with the advanced medical treatment that we have, he may never be the same, regardless of the type of surgery.

I’m not saying the Indians are in for doom. They could probably compete 2011 (pushing it IMO) or 2012 if a good amount of their talent pans out. I just think they won’t be competing in 2010. They’re definitely rebuilding right now. They have excellent talent. I’m not going to argue that. Actually, as a Sox fan, I’m extremely jealous of the talent they have in their system. It blows our system out of the water. They definitely have a shot to compete (and be a very good ball club) in the next few years.

by kmule on Nov 1, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

No Problem

I wish the Indians had Daniel Hudson though….

by Alex Trebek on Nov 1, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Lol

I’m glad we have him. They need to move Sweaty Freddy to the ‘pen or trade him and make room in the rotation for Hudson. Let me tell you, when I saw him pitch a few times after he was called up, his stuff was absolutely nasty. All of his pitches had insane bite to them. Buehrle – Peavy – Danks – Floyd – Hudson doesn’t make a bad 1-5 either.

by kmule on Nov 1, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions  

i don't think this trade happens

for a variety of reasons, but Starlin seems to be inching very close to Hanley status, if not there, when Hanley was dealt. Certainly, the situations were different (Hanley dropped a bit due to questions, while Starlin’s rising quite a lot on projection).

I mean ,,, we are talking about arguably the top shortstop talent in the minors right now (at worst, he’s top 5).

Again, don’t think the trade happens for a variety of reasons (Cleveland’s gotta give some time to let Acta to see what type of talent he has, Grady’s value is a bit down right now, he’s signed, he’s young, system’s loaded. on the Cubs side, I don’t think they want to give up a rapidly improving farm with their aging core and new ownership’s plan, and my gut feeling is that Starlin would be untouchable from the Cubs front).

by toonsterwu on Nov 1, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

No way

And adding 10 mid-tier prospects won’t do it, either. You would have to start with a player with Sizemore-esque upside, and nearly ready, and build around that. Something closer to what the Marlins thought they were getting for Cabrera. Maybe something like Dexter Fowler, Christian Friedrich & Esmil Rogers, but even that is probably too little.

by gogotabata on Nov 1, 2009 1:03 PM EST reply actions  

Castro's getting pretty good.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 3, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions  

that could be the basis of it

but the indians would need more major league ready talent.

by iam2asian4u on Nov 1, 2009 1:14 PM EST reply actions  

I agree with this

from the Cubs side too- I see them as more likely to deal players at MLB or close to mlb level. I don’t see them trading Castro or VItters, especially given the remarks of the new owner about building through the system. I can see them dealing Cashner in the right deal, as he’s almost pen ready now. But he, along with Sean Marshall, Mike Fontenot, and Jake Fox and other cost-controlled mlb talent aren’t getting them anything like Grady Sizemore.

Cleveland is also going to want ML-ready, young talent. That would especially include CF in my mind if they were dealing Sizemore.

by philadelphiacub on Nov 1, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

jake fox

I think he would be a decent fit in the AL, at least get more ABs than his current situation . I’d give up something in a lesser deal depending on his trade value

A’s could offer some pitching:

blevins
jeff gray
simmons
banwart
demel
capra
ross
hornbeck
leon

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 1, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Of the players you mentioned

I think the Indians would only be interested in Leon, Capra and Ross. And they’d likely be the 3rd or 4th player in such a trade.

They’d definently ask for a package of Cahill/Anderson, Grant Desme/Adrian Cardenas/Jemile Weeks and Leon/Capra/Ross.

Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.

by Zonis on Nov 3, 2009 1:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Shapiro wouldn't want to anger the fans anymore.

Sizemore is the heart of the Indians now that Sabathia and Martinez are gone. Somebody would have to vastly overpay to get him because one of the few recognizable faces left on the Indians ballclub. He just turned 27, played fairly well last year despite his bad elbow injury (although not by his standards) and is dirt cheap for three more years. The Indians could easily make a run as early as 2011 and a package centered around a 3B and SS, which the Indians already have (Lonnie Chisenhall and Asdrubal Cabrera), wouldn’t tempt Shapiro.

by Alex Trebek on Nov 1, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

i don't care how hot the prospects are ...

… the Indians aren’t giving up the face of their franchise, one of the best CF’s in the game and a cost-controlled bargain unless they get at least two terrific young players they can put in the lineup right now. No amount of prospects is getting this deal done.

by whichthat on Nov 1, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions  

sizemore to A's for...

brett anderson
andrew bailey
ryan sweeney- would they need a CF or will brantley just replace him?
desme or corey brown
donaldson
ross or capra
mazzaro or simmons
demel or carignan

any chance?

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 1, 2009 1:36 PM EST reply actions  

sizemore for

brett anderson… that would be a good deal for both sides..

by matthewmafa on Nov 1, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

why would the A's want to do that?

Honest question – why? Potential ace, closer, plus some interesting pieces?

by toonsterwu on Nov 1, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

a 3+ WAR centerfielder too.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Nov 1, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Yea...

Anderson and Carsenas would be enough to get him.

by joegonzo on Nov 1, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I think

The Indians would ask for more, but I don’t think the A’s would deal Anderson for Sizemore. That isn’t an indictment of Sizemore by any means, as his off year was still a decent year. I just think, with the way that pitching talent is protected these days, that teams, particularly small market teams, are going to protect top young arms, particularly a rookie lefty that came off a dang fine season and has the potential to do better. That said, all you need is one GM.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Billy Beane would drive Anderson to Cleveland himself

I think people on here are vastly underrating Sizemore’s value.

by aap212 on Nov 2, 2009 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Incredibly underrating. Im shocked. Grady Sizemore is one of the best players in baseball. These deals are so far off the mark its embarassing. There’s virtually no way they would consider trading Sizemore – who again, is a top notch player, a franchise player alongside Hanley, Mauer, Jeter, etc… -especially considering he has a super team friendly deal. It would take a hell of a lot more to pry him from Cleveland. Try something like double this kind of offer. Not even kidding. Jesus, Sizemore could very easily have been MVP in 06, 07 or 08. Even in an injury plagued 09 he gave the team almost $10 million worth of value.

by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

But...

you’re surely not suggesting that people here are overrating the value of prospects?

by PissedMick on Nov 2, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions  

okay

I just disagree. I just can’t see Beane forking over Anderson in any deal this offseason.

I also think that, even after all the recent trades where expectations were met with value corrections, that we need to open our eyes up to the new paradigm in pro baseball in regards to valuation. Go through all the recent trades in recent history, and more often than not, the expectations that many fans had on the size of the return was, more often than not, off.

Short of it is, I think there’s been a new paradigm in baseball in the past few years in regards to trades and values.

But that’s me.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Our points aren't mutually exclusive

You’re saying Beane wouldn’t trade Anderson. I don’t disagree with that. But the reason the Jays didn’t trade Halladay is that they needed to get back a top shelf guy, say a Kershaw type. That’s why the trade couldn’t happen. Sizemore’s more valuable to the acquiring team than Halladay. Personally, I think Beane would still have to leap at the chance because Sizemore’s so good. But the most likely outcome is that Beane couldn’t bring himself to trade what Cleveland would require.

by aap212 on Nov 2, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL

Please do that A’s….

The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...

by Kinslerhomer on Nov 1, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Sizemore never was healthy this year.

He played through elbow pain all year in 09 when he wasn’t on the DL. He’s likely to bounce back to the WARs of 06-08 (7.5, 5.8, 6.3) next year since he got the corrective elbow surgery.

by Alex Trebek on Nov 1, 2009 3:08 PM EST reply actions  

I don't think the Indians would do that

they would have no chance of competing this year, though with Sizemore and some bounce backs they have a shot.

by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 1, 2009 4:05 PM EST reply actions  

The Tribe would go off the Reservation

Grady is the heart of the team, young and the most popular and recognizable face that Cleveland has had in recent memory. He is untouchable. He can’t be traded. The package it would take to pry him away can’t be justified by another team as you would have to so vastly overpay that it wouldn’t make any baseball sense. The cubs would have to put up Vitters, Cashner, Lee, Castro, Wells, Ceda, and I would guess a couple other current roster players. The package needed thus makes it a huge net loss. He and Pujols might be the two most difficult players to acquire right now.

by gpellet41 on Nov 1, 2009 5:47 PM EST reply actions  

let's not go that far

I don’t think you’ll find any team giving up Vitters/Cashner/Lee/Castro/Wells (Ceda was traded) and more for Grady. You can make a case that is the Cubs top 4 prospects (I’d disagree), but very few teams will fork so many guys over, particularly so many quality guys over (that’s arguably a B+ (Castro), and 3 B’s, along with one of the best rookie pitchers this year. No team is forking over that for Grady. I also don’t believe that Shapiro is the type that would be influenced by the fans into not doing something. I also doubt that Grady is “untouchable”. There’s very few untouchables in baseball, and coming off the season he had. Even Cleveland scribes have loosely suggested a Grady trade possibility exists, although more likely for 2011.

That said, as noted above, I don’t think a deal like this would happen. I just think the package suggestion you are making is probably a bit exaggerated on what it would take to pry Grady. Certainly, it would take a lot, and at some point, it wouldn’t make sense for an opposing club to do it. I just don’t think it’s going to take 4 top 120 prospects (one top 50, if not top 30) and a top rookie pitcher to get it happen. I also don’t think there’s much of a chance that Starlin Castro gets moved.

by toonsterwu on Nov 1, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

For the Cubs to get him...

they would HAVE to give up Castro, Vitters, and two of Cashner, Lee, Jackson, and Wells. The Indians do not need to trade Grady. He is the cornerstone of their franchise and is still young and very talented.

by joegonzo on Nov 1, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

i should've been more specific

i was speaking of value. If I wasn’t clear, I apologize.

I highly doubt, on value, that a team will fork over the package that the OP suggested. I’m not even sold that any team will fork over the package you are suggesting (a B+ player, 3 B guys, or 2 B guys and one of the better young pitchers, a cost controlled pitcher, for Grady – again speaking of value). Look at recent trades on pitchers – it’s hard for me to imagine that any team forks over that amount with the way prospects are protected now, particularly top prospects.

But your suggestion is a bit more reasonable than the OP’s. I just think the OP’s suggestion was a bit much.

In general, I don’t think the Cubs fit that well with the Indians. I also don’t think the Cubs would do a deal that forks over key prospects this offseason, particularly not an elite talent like Castro.

by toonsterwu on Nov 1, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

hes up there for most untradeable

but the tops of that list starts and ends with longoria, i know its been printed ad nauseam, but that contract is an absolute steal for the rays… and by the time its up, the landscape of FA signing might have dramatically shifted away from giving 30+ players the money they made in the later 90s/early 00s

id put hanley, pujols, jupton as definites for infront of him too…. but i digress

the package needed to get sizemore would have to include MLB ready talent, upside, and would have to fill a need in the organization

by PHGold09 on Nov 1, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

There is plenty more I consider more untradeable...

Hanley, Pujols, JUpton, Kershaw, obviously Longoria, Braun, Lincecum, Lester, Wieters, McCutchen, and maybe even a few others,

by joegonzo on Nov 1, 2009 9:35 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe that package for...Hanley Ramirez??

Unlike Sizemore, Hanley is about to get VERY expensive—the Marlins are going to trade him to somebody in the next couple of years. Castro then becomes the natural successor at shortstop in 2011 or so.

Cubs can afford Hanley if they move any of their 7 or 8 priciest guys. You never know….

by Mekonsrock on Nov 2, 2009 11:58 AM EST reply actions  

Marlins moving into a new stadium, which is expected to increase revenue

Besides, they have guys such as Uggla and Hermedia who they could unload and clear up some space. I really don’t think Hanley will be moved, imo. And honestly, I don’t think even that package would be enough for Hanley

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Nov 2, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I mean, look at their potential roster in 2012

C: I mean, maybe Skipworth, probably not
1B: Logan Morrison
2B: Jake Smolinski
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Matt Dominguez
RF: Mike Stanton
CF: Cameron Maybin
LF: Chris Coghlan

SPs: Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Andrew Miller, Sean West, Anabal Sanchez
CP: Ceda? Tucker? Nuñez?

I mean, I wouldn’t really wanna break up that team that is loaded with potential. I think the marlins will wanna move into the stadium with a team like this that fans can get excited about

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Nov 2, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll be somewhat surprised

if Coghlan isn’t at 2nd next season. If he’s there and holds it down, I’ll be surprised if they move him back to the OF by 2012.

Of course, I guess they gotta move Uggla to start the dominoes, but after this year, and the argument, I think most are expecting that.

by toonsterwu on Nov 3, 2009 8:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Hanley getting very expensive?

Isn’t Hanley signed to a ridiculously team friendly contract?

Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.

by Zonis on Nov 3, 2009 1:46 AM EST up reply actions  

For most teams, yes

Hanley’s contract is: 2010:$7M, 2011:$11M, 2012:$15M, 2013:$15.5M, 2014:$16M

Unless the Marlins increase payroll as we go along here, Hanley will represent close to 33% of the payroll as early as 2011, and potentially close to 50% starting in 2012. Ideally, the new stadium and increased revenues will convince Loria to up payroll, but I don’t think it’s hard to imagine him forcing a trade of Hanley to restock the system again with lots of young talent in the next 3-4 years.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Nov 5, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions  

This package wouldn't come close to landing Sizemore, nevermind Hanley, IMHO

Not even close.

Vitters? Pass. I love Castro, but he’s not the kind of guy who can centerpiece a deal for a superstar like Sizemore or Hanley. The arms are guys I like, but again, not the kind who comes anywhere close to getting this deal done.

Sizemore is cheap and under control. As is Hanley. Theyre both top notch, young, in their prime superstar, 5 win kind of players. Teams don’t give up guys like that. You can overpay for them when they have a year left on their contract sometimes… but that’s it.

Most importantly, if either of these players were available some other team would easily beat this kind of offer. I think the starting bids would even blow away this kind of offer. The Cubs just dont have the ammo to get either deal done.

by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 1:13 PM EST reply actions  

Would the Jays have accepted this deal for Halladay?

I’d give it a solid maybe, and obviously, Castro’s stock has risen even since the trade deadline. But Sizemore is a superstar up the middle player under control at a bargain price. He’s coming off a down year, but he’s young and has an established track record of excellence. If the Indians were actually willing to trade him, the package would have to be insanely huge. Bigger than any potential Halladay package, for instance.

by aap212 on Nov 2, 2009 1:23 PM EST reply actions  

Would the Jays have accepted this deal for Halladay?

NO friggin way! Did you see the deals they turned down? This offer is a good deal less enticing than what the Tribe got for Cliff Lee – and that deal couldn’t get Halladay done.

by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

really?

I’m not so sold on that. Starlin Castro is probably the best talent in either of the two deals, including Knapp. I don’t think there’s a big difference between Jay Jackson and Carlos Carrasco. Donald and Marson are nice complementary upper level assets to a deal, like Murton and Patterson were for the Cubs in the Harden trade. I would think, depending on team needs, that a lot of folks would gamble on Vitters if they were offered a Vitters for Donald and Marson deal.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

btw

few comments:

a) Don’t think the Jays would’ve accepted this deal either. My comment was simply comparing the two deals. Obviously, team needs should be a factor. I think JP needed to be ridiculously blown away to even accept a deal from the Red Sox, and I think he needed to be blown away to accept a deal from a non-AL East team. Not sure he would’ve been blown away at the trade deadline (Castro was still a high ceiling kid in A+ ball).

b) Don’t think Cleveland deals Sizemore. Just wanted to reiterate that in case people get the idea that I think they will. Nope, don’t think they’ll ponder it. They’ve got to let Acta play out at least a year with this young core, and see how their pitching development goes. If things go well, they could easily be in contention in a relatively weak AL Central. If they ponder a Grady deal, its in the future. Just don’t see it this offseason, and I imagine this topic came around deal to some mailbag that Hoynes had with someone on the topic.

c) Yes, Grady is a different animal from any of the recent top deals. Furthermore, all it takes is one team to go crazy. That said, in general, there hasn’ t been many big deals in recent offseason history that have met expectations that people had, and there’s been far far fewer that have blown past expectations. About the only deal that I can think of that people point to is the Erik Bedard trade.

I’m just not sure why, in a climate where baseball teams have strongly emphasized protecting players, particularly arms, in a climate where the economy is impacting baseball, that there’s going to be a earth shattering deal done in the offseason. Which team, with a good enough farm, is going to sell their farm this offseason? Sure, one can say, and let’s leave Grady alone and this scenario alone, as I don’t think the Cubs would do it, and just speak in generalities for a moment. One can say that the selling team could demand more, and maybe they’d probably be in the right for doing that. But for me, assessing and judging trade value comes down to what might be possible … so tell me, which team sells their farm this offseason, for a non-pitcher? I could perhaps see a team sell the farm for Felix, but even then, the Red Sox pulled the brakes up on their top shelf of talent, and while their system might be on a downswing for a moment, they’ve still got a better system than most organizations out there

That said, I’ve been plenty wrong before, and all it takes is one.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough

I personally like Knapp a great deal. High end live arm. I also like Carrasco a lot. Its a fair point that the top two pieces of each deal are fairly comparable. Like you say, though, my point was the Jays werent even close to taking that kind of deal from the Phillies.

by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions  

oh

my comment shouldn’t be read as not liking the deal. After the initial shock of not having Drabek/Brown/Taylor in it, I thought the Indians got a very solid haul. We see teams take high floor/upper level guys to balance out the risk in a deal, and while I’m not big on Marson or Donald, both should find roles in the bigs.

Carrasco’s general status seems to have gone done, but I still like him a lot as a mid-rotation starter. I’m not so sure about ace potential, but someone made a solid case in one of these threads a few weeks back. I also like Knapp’s potential a ton.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Bedard AND Teixeira

Who was the last position player as good and established as Sizemore, as young as Sizemore, and as long left under control as Sizemore who got traded? There isn’t one in recent history. He’s got more value left on his deal than Teixeira, Lee, or any of these guys. So while you’re right that these trades usually end up being underwhelming, Sizemore would require an eye-popping deal.

by aap212 on Nov 2, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

tex happened in season

I’m not saying Cleveland couldn’t get a good haul. I’m just not sure that they would likely get the haul that some folks are expecting right now. These aren’t mutually exclusive situations.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions  

They also have no impetus to trade him

That gives them the freedom to only take a deal that would actually make them want to trade him.

by aap212 on Nov 2, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

A more fair trade for Sizemore's services than Brett Anderson

would be Grady to the Mets

for Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Reese Havens, Kyle Allen

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 2, 2009 6:00 PM EST reply actions  

tbh

i doubt that would be enough. I am a fan of Niese, but the ceiling on that package isn’t that high overall, imo.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

No way you trade Sizemore, one of the best players in the game, without getting the top 2 prospects from a system. Gotta have Meija in there at the very least.

by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions  

yep

f-mart, mejia, niese, havens, and allen would at least get a consideration, though i doubt it would happen

by daveh33 on Nov 3, 2009 3:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Look at it this way...

Would you take Mejia, Niese, Havens, and Allen to downgrade Sizemore to F-Mart? I would hang up in a real hurry if I were Shapiro. And I say that as a Mets fan.

by aap212 on Nov 3, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions  

yr probably right

but i think i like F-Mart more than most mets fans

by daveh33 on Nov 3, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Me too.

I try not to value Mets players according to what Mets fans think. It’s always way too far to one end of the curve or the other.

by aap212 on Nov 3, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 3, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

...and as a Twins fan

I remember Phillip Humber, and Deolis Guerra
on the overhyped or overrated end of the curve

but Mulvey and Gomez are about what we thought they were….

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 3, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Grady to the Brewers

Angel Salome – Should DH/C
Mat Gamel – Amazing bat.
Caleb Gindl – Breakout this year
Wily Peralta – Top arm in system
Jacob Odorizzi – Recent 1st Rd Pick. Workhorse frame.

Chicks Dig The Long Ball.

by ILuvDaBush on Nov 2, 2009 8:21 PM EST reply actions  

There needs to be a sizemore-esque talent to acquire Sizemore

It’s been said before, and I’ll say it again.

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Nov 2, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

The headliner coming back has to be a sure thing, high ceiling, top 15/10 kind of prospect. FMart doesnt cut it, nor does Starlin Castro.

by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

honest question alskor

Which team do you see that honestly would fork over a top 10-15 prospect in the game this offseason, in any deal? Add in that the FA market likely will be overloaded, and unless a team feels Grady is the difference between a championship, I’m hard pressed to see which organization pulls the deal.

We can, as fans, talk about what we would do, what we think should be done. I mean, there are easily some guys I would fork over in an instant. But … which organization pulls that trigger? That’s the tough thing for me to see. That said, it just takes one team.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I really can't

I was saying originally this is a fool’s errand and that Sizemore is virtually unmovable.

Hell, If Im GM of the Indians and someone offers me a mega deal with a headliner like I said – for the sake of argument let’s say the reported Boston offer for Felix (pick five out of: Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson, Hagadone, Bard, Doubront, Reddick, Navarro. Source: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009591133_mariners_turned_down_three-way.html ) – Well, If Im the Tribe’s GM I don’t even know if I take that offer. That’s potentially five top 100 guys and a kid a year+ removed from being the best pitching prospect in baseball (or 2nd best by BA).

Bottom line is there is just really no reasonable way you can make the Indians better by trading Sizemore. He’s too good and too cheap. What would I need to trade him? Evan Longoria? That would work. Same argument goes for Longoria. So cheap, young and good – how could you ever get Tampa to trade him? Its a pretty good comp in this instance.

by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions  

that's fair

i think we’re coming at this from two different areas – your looking at what it would take for the Indians to be satisfied on a Grady deal, and I’m simply saying that what the Indians might want in a deal might not be what they can get.

As noted, I really don’t see Sizemore getting dealt. His value is at a relative low anyways, and they have to see how their young core plays out for at least a year, if not two.

by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Yanks

Sizemore for Montero+? Done.

Before people get worked up, I don’t think it will happen (I don’t think the Yanks have enough)… just an example of a top prospect getting moved for Sizemore.

by jc3 on Nov 3, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

cleveland has enough dh types.

i think they would want a top arm.

Colorado could probably put up an impressive offer. doubt they would do it, but they could…

Chacin
Fowler
Friedrich

…. those 3 names are probably better than anyone else could come up with… throw in another bat or lower-level arm and that’s a pretty nice deal.

by daveh33 on Nov 3, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

You hit the nail on the head, this is what it would take.

Two top of the rotation arms, a young 5 tool outfielder and two low-level high upside guys. I think that the asking price for Sizemore is so high, that teams shouldn’t even bother.

by Alex Trebek on Nov 3, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Agree something like this is the most realistic scenario – and even then, Im not sure Cleveland pulls the trigger, but not b/c of the return…

by alskor on Nov 3, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

The Red Sox could do this.

Buchholz, Kelly, Westmoreland, Lars, and Pimentel

It makes a certain amount of sense for Boston if they actually want to move Ellsbury to left and invest in a centerfielder rather than re-signing Bay or making a run at Holliday. They could spend the free agent budget on Lackey and be much-improved heading into next season.

Of course the trade could potentially be a disaster if Sizemore is anything other than elite coming back from surgery. It looks more like a deal that neither team would do than one that both would agree upon. Sizemore is so much the face of the franchise that I wouldn’t be surprised if Shapiro hangs up once his name is thrown out there.

by The Good Face on Nov 4, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions  

only reason i think Colorado's is better is because the big 3 are closer to the bigs

Chacin, Fowler, Friedrich

is better to me than

Buchholz, Kelly [mostly low-A in 09], Westmoreland [not even low-A in 09]

by daveh33 on Nov 4, 2009 1:19 AM EST up reply actions  

The Brewers package is ridiculous

Gamel’s the only top 50 prospect in that package. Salome doesn’t have the bat to DH (although a 5’6" DH would be hilarious).

by aap212 on Nov 2, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Tongue in cheek

I was just making a joke about how any team would throw five of their top 8-10 prospects at the Indians for Sizemore.

But Salome won the Southern League batting title last year with a .900+ OPS. He really doesn’t have the bat?

Chicks Dig The Long Ball.

by ILuvDaBush on Nov 2, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Point taken on the tongue-in-cheek part

It’s hard to tell on the internet sometimes.

As for Salome, I just don’t see it. I’ve heard very mixed reports on the guy, and having seen him in person, it’s hard to take him seriously as a future star unless he can stay behind the plate. He makes Lenny Dykstra look like an NBA player.

Also, eventually the Indians have to stop accumulating guys who are in real danger of ending up at first or DH without superstar potential. Someone like Gamel or Salome (especially given the catcher depth) is exactly what they don’t need.

by aap212 on Nov 2, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Indians and Gamel

If Cleveland wanted Gamel I’m sure they could’ve had him last year instead of Matt LaPorta in the Sabathia deal.

by two fishsticks on Nov 3, 2009 12:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Gamel v. LaPorta

I’m not so sure that’s true. Gamel fit an obvious organizational need and was the heir apparent. LaPorta, rightly or wrongly, was being tried as a corner OF, which makes him blocked by Corey Hart, Ryan Bruan, and Prince Fielder.

But again, this is neither here nor there. Grady will don be donning the Brew Crew Blue anytime soon.

Chicks Dig The Long Ball.

by ILuvDaBush on Nov 4, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Gamel fit an obvious organizational need and was the heir apparent.

For the Tribe or for the Brewers? I dont understand it either way. Gamel is almost certainly moving to 1B, and the Brewers have a very good player there already and the Indians have about 8 guys who should/could be playing there. Even if its 3B, the Indians have Peralta now and Chisenhall not all that far away.

by alskor on Nov 4, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Brewers 3B

Last year, before Casey McGehee arrived, Gamel was the heir to the hot corner. I still view Gamel as the 3B of the future, though whose future is up for debate (many pundits have him ticketed out of town for a SP).

And looking at it from last year’s perspective, you would argue that a recently drafted rookie and your starting shortstop would preclude you from trading for one of the top 3B prospects in baseball?

Chicks Dig The Long Ball.

by ILuvDaBush on Nov 4, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

In July 2008...

At the time the deal was made the Brewers were the team on the 26 year playoff drought asking for Sabathia (with other teams like the Dodgers in contention).

If the Indians had insisted on Gamel over LaPorta I’m sure the Brewers would’ve been hesitant but accomodating because while they may have viewed Gamel higher internally (oops) it wasn’t a dealbreaking difference.

by two fishsticks on Nov 4, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I would argue Gamel probably isnt going to be a 3B so its a moot point

He’s athletic enough, but he’s a total butcher over there. I had hopes his error totals were indicative of good range but poor skills – now Im becoming convinced he’s just bad. Scouting reports are very negative.

Secondly, Peralta is a 3B now. He’s not the starting SS. Asdrubal Cabrera is.

Also, Chisenhall was drafted in 2008 and is a top 50 prospect. Its not like he’s some raw draftee in rookie ball.

by alskor on Nov 4, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

The fairest trade would be ironic

The Phillies offer
Victorino
Drabek
D.Brown or Michael Taylor
Trevor May

for
Sizemore
B- level pitching prospect like a T.J. House or Alex Perez

Of course Cleveland probably wants nothing to do with Philly after the Lee debacle. Philly fans would argue that’s way too much to give up for anyone, Tribe fans would basically accept nothing less for Sizemore. In this day of MLB it seems much tougher to put together deals involving top 25 prospects or top 25 players.

by two fishsticks on Nov 2, 2009 10:47 PM EST reply actions  

Don't know if I'd call the Lee trade a debacle.

Carrasco and Knapp are intriguing arms and Lou Marson and Jason Donald could be average players at premium positions. However, I wish the Indians had gotten more and think the Martinez, DeRosa and Sabathia deals brought better returns.

by Alex Trebek on Nov 3, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually think the Rays might be an interesting case

They get a cost efficient superstar for let’s say:
Jennings
Hellickson
Brignac
Mcgee or Barnese

That might make moving Upton or Crawford easier to swallow

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Nov 3, 2009 12:45 AM EST reply actions  

was gonna suggest them.

imagine an OF of Crawford, Sizemore, and BOSSMAN. jeebus.

Jennings is the surefire top 10 prospect.
Hellickson is a top flight arm and surefire top 30/40 spect.
Brignac future MLB SS with power upside.
Barnese a lower-level arm with talent.
hell they can even toss in McGee.

Rays don’t really need sizemore though.
mostly need a righty bat.
and no need for a CFer

by daveh33 on Nov 3, 2009 3:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Sizemore is very unlikey

to go anywhere this year. However, he could be trade bait next year if Michael Brantley turns out to be the player Cleveland thinks he will be. I do not see Cleveland interested in multiple prospects for Sizemore. The Indians have one of the deepest systems in baseball. IMO the Indians would want a surefire #1 starter to replace Sabathia and Lee that is young and cheap. #2s need not apply. The second player would have to be a RH power bat with tools in keeping with the current Indians trend toward speed and defense. I am a little surprised that people would think Sizemore could be had for prospects that would be marginal improvement, at best, for their current prospects. Why would Cleveland trade a 30/30 for prospect improvement of Vitters over Chisenhall, Castro over Cabrera/Donald/Rivero or Jackson/Cashner over a multitude of similar or better arms already in the organization? No disrespect to a prospect like Montero who projects as a terrific hitter but why would Cleveland want him over Santana or LaPorta at the cost of Sizemore? I would guess the Braves might be in the best position to go after Sizemore with Hanson/Heyward as the foundation of a trade but there are other possibilities. Sizemore might be available for a price but he fits in the Cleveland system and the price would be steep.

by sdtribefan on Nov 5, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions  

Agree on most of your post, but…

Why would Cleveland trade a 30/30 for prospect improvement of Vitters over Chisenhall, Castro over Cabrera/Donald/Rivero or Jackson/Cashner over a multitude of similar or better arms already in the organization?

Chisenhall > Vitters and Asdrubal Cabrera > Castro.

by alskor on Nov 5, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Tho

I disagree with your disagreement.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Nov 5, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Why?

If I may ask.

Chisenhall is a more complete player than Vitters and a more advanced hitter. They were both listed in the “Next 25” in BA’s midseason top 25: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=5456 . Since then, Chisenhall’s stock has kept rising, while Vitters did poorly. I definitely like him more than Vitters and expect him to be higher than Vitters on pretty much every prospect list.

Asdrubal Cabrera? He’s a 23 year old stud SS. Bit of speed, bit of power and fantastic glove. He’s a patient hitter with a great approach at the plate. He might be one of the most underrated players in baseball. I like Starlin Castro plenty, but Asdrubal is young, proven and a pretty great player – .354 wOBA from a SS is pretty friggin good. UZR didnt like his defense this year, but it did previously and the scouting reports are very good… probably has a lot to do with him moving back and forth from 2B to SS.

by alskor on Nov 5, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions  

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