BA Cal League Top 20
by wobatus on Oct 5, 2009 12:59 PM EDT
66 comments
| CALIFORNIA LEAGUE TOP 20 PROSPECTS |
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1. Buster Posey, c, San Jose (Giants)
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Very interesting list...
He went out on a lot of limbs, and I actually agree with most of them except the conservative ranking of Weeks. I think Neal probably belongs above Kieschneck, because he’s younger, more projectable, and has a better approach, and even though I’m a Mariners fan I think he ranked Aumont and Liddi a bit too aggressively, but I like this list.
I LOVE seeing Craig Italiano make the list. He absolutely tore the league up as a reliever (which the season line quoted by BA doesn’t capture). 1.44 ERA in 31.1 innings with 44K/10 BB with a ridiculous 5.71 G/F Ratio. I think he has lockdown closer potential.
by slamcactus on Oct 5, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Liddi’s a bit high, IMO..I’d have Desme higher, personally.
by WrenFGun on Oct 5, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Given the press and scouting reports respective to one another
I’m surprised Gillies ranked seven spots lower than Liddi.
by ThomasG on Oct 5, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
james darnell v. logan forsythe
what are some opinions on this? forsythe looked like an awesome 2 hole hitter in A+, but his performance regressed heavily in AA. darnell had a more projectable line, but by the time he got to A+, he was competing against a lower caliber of competition.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Oct 5, 2009 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm not sure on either of them. neither really excites me to be honest
by daveh33 on Oct 5, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Darnell has a LOT more power potential – there’s a lot of talk about a future move to RF. Average or better speed and the other tools all grade higher… (except his current defense at 3B – but even then scouts are mixed)…
Forsythe has better plate discipline and more defense ability – some suggest he could play 2B or be a super-utility guy… (not b/c he can’t play 3B – but he can potentially play all over).
by pffriberg on Oct 7, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
aside from 1 and 2.
i don’t like this at all. Desme is way too low
by daveh33 on Oct 5, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Aumont/Liddi a tad high, Neal a little too low, Figueroa a surprise that high. Desme and Weeks are too low. A pretty good year in the Cal League in terms of star power.
Awaiting his arrival in SF: Jesse English
by henwo on Oct 5, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
how low
did they have Pablo Sandoval last year since he doesn’t “look” like a baseball player?
by richieabernathy on Oct 5, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he was 7th last year.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Oct 5, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
makes the Decker ranking all the more odd
by daveh33 on Oct 5, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They don't like Padres prospects
You all saw what Cabrera, Latos, Blanks (not to mention Venable, Durango, Granderson, etc.) did this year – does that look like 29th system in baseball?
by pffriberg on Oct 7, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BA has certain well-known blind spots
which often line up with certain systems’ philosophies. They tend to really underrate players with high floors.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pedro Figueroa?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
by hero66 on Oct 5, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Boy would I LOVE to know more about him
C’ mon all you A’s fans fire away…..
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 7, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pelzer
I like him alot as a sleeper. Not really sure where he would end up in the Cal league rankings. If you take 3 bad starts he had his numbers look real good. I have heard he ends up a bullpen guy..anyone have any insight?
by NYSOX on Oct 5, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only one left who isn't in love with Desme?
I mean, I get it — he’s got fantastic tools, and since he’s missed a few years with injury, he gets some leeway for being 23. But the fact remains that he’s a college player who struck out an alarming 30.5% of his at bats this year between Low-A and a High-A hitter’s paradise.
It’s okay for Mike Stanton to strike out that much because he’s posted disgusting power numbers in High-A at Age 19. But how many college players — aside from Ryan Howard — who have struck out that much at lower levels and have gone on to succeed in the majors? Unless Desme can cut down on the strikeouts, I have serious concerns about his ability to advance.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 5, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I should add...
…that I’m not surprised or even disappointed that BA had him at #16, because I think it’s fair given the tools. My question above was posed more to the posters who think he’s too low on here, that he’s a Top 50 prospect, etc.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 5, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in love with him? no.
I think you might be confusing “like him a lot relative to other Oakland prospects” to “like him a lot in general”.
The Oakland system is good, but I like it much more for its depth than the individual quality of its prospects. I consider the top 3 in the system to be Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas and Desme in some order . . .I tend to think that I might underestimate Cardenas sometimes (which would actually be OVER-estimating him in many eyes I’m sure, but I digress). Make me rank them again today and I might put Cardenas at No. 2.
Carter is going to rate very highly, but if you were ranking a unified (position players and pitchers) top 100, where would the next Oakland guy show up? Cardenas at 35-45, Desme around 55-60? Wallace if you like name value and floor?
by mrkupe on Oct 5, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a clarification...
Are you differentiating Desme and Stanton due to age relative to league or the power numbers? Or are you saying Stanton is easier to love because he has BOTH on Desme?
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by nobodyinparticular on Oct 6, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Darnell is way too low, yet again
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 5, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sweet Jesus
Chris Withrow: His 92-96 mph fastball and curveball are both plus pitches, and his heater was clocked as high as 99.
Get hyped, ya’ll.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 5, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
An oddly rare occurrence
but I feel more confident in the list after the guy’s chat. After some of the others’ chats, I feel like they’re just sort of slotting guys by where they’re “supposed to go,” as opposed as from solid empirical evidence. This guy had understandable reasoning behind his preferences.
by gogotabata on Oct 5, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I actually had to go look up Pedro Figueroa's numbers
which is unusual when it comes to A’s prospects, to say the least.
He did have a pretty solid season, and I think he was praised by Sickels entering the year, so I guess he’s an actual prospect now. This might be relevant inasmuch as the A’s need to add him to their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 5, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Figueroa and Pelzer
A 23 year old, 24 next month, walking nearly 5 guys a game? And another 23 year old at 3.5.
Age isn’t as relevant for pitchers, but, especially with Figueroa, not sure how if walks high A guys at that rate he is suddenly going to walk fewer major leaguers any time soon. People rag on Desme’s age/k rate but his production was much more impressive than Figueroa’s. At least in my mind.
But Desme’s placement isn’t so much my issue as Neal’s and Darnell’s. Those guys should be top 5 and ahead of guys like Figueroa and Pelzer.
by wobatus on Oct 5, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Desme and Weeks are clearly hurt on this list by spending only half a season in the league
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 5, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the chat, Dave Perkin said that he didn’t want to include Weeks on the list at all, but was coaxed into including him by colleagues.
by jibs on Oct 5, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
to be more specific
Is this a case of just one guy (who happened to be the guy making the list) REALLY not liking Weeks for whatever reason to chagrin of everybody else, or did he happen to mention what he heard from league sources in justifying his decision?
by mrkupe on Oct 5, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
criteria
Can he look at weeks’ AA results when deciding whether he was one of the Cal league’s top prospects? I suppose nothing stops him from doing so.
by wobatus on Oct 6, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weeks's AA stats
They don’t really concern me that much. It was only 105 ABs and he had a BABIP of .256 (the same can be said about Matt Dominguez and his .225 BABIP in AA). His walk rate was a bit lower than I would have liked, but I don’t think that’s a big enough sample to call the drop a trend. He also hit pretty well in the AA playoffs for whatever that’s worth.
by jar75 on Oct 6, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just wondering
if this guy was looking at them.
by wobatus on Oct 6, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically, this is true
In the past, though, BA has been pretty clear that league rankings only reflect the player’s performance and reports in that particular league.
by mrkupe on Oct 6, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sometimes
I think they ignore the performance in the league in question too.
by wobatus on Oct 6, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really
Weeks had a good line, but let’s not go crazy over it. Hell, there was a guy with a 1.000+ OPS at the same age and didn’t get on!
by mrkupe on Oct 6, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
crazy
I am not going crazy over it, just that the guy said he didn’t like Week’s numbers, and there isn’t much not to like about them.
Koby Clemens was an interesting omit. park and luck adjusted line is .285/.368/.525, so an OPS right around Weeks after adjustments. c/3b listed, but can he really play those positions?
by wobatus on Oct 7, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he said he didn't like Weeks' CAL stats
And was hoping his numbers were due to injury effects
by jibs on Oct 6, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
I wonder what’s for him not to like about his cal league numbers as a 2b. He was 21st overall in wOBA. 14 of the 20 players ahead of him are older (albeit some not by much and are essentially the same age, but he isn’t old for the league).
He was number 1 in the Cal League in wOBA for a second baseman. 2-5 were all older than he.
Castro’s numbers were pretty good in the Cal League. Looks like he deserves his rank as a catcher who may be able to hit a little.
by wobatus on Oct 6, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castro
Park context definitely needs to be put in play with his numbers.
by jibs on Oct 6, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good call
minor-league splits takes him down below an .800 ops park and luck adjusted (he was also somewhat lucky).
And although Weeks hit better at home in the Cal, his park and luck adjusted numbers are .322/.405/.475, better than his raw numbers.
Seems like this guy also maybe didn’t discount enough for park inflation with Liddi.
by wobatus on Oct 6, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
liddi
Not easy to grade the performance of guys like him, coming from the Midwest League. The two leagues are at polar ends of the hinder/help batters spectrum. You have to ask yourself, is it just that Liddi isn’t really that good and just got helped out by the environment, or did he just play in a terrible environment the previous couple of years and thus was underrated?
Probably something in the middle.
by mrkupe on Oct 6, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
about somewhere in the middle.
Weeks’ minorleaguesplits luck and park adjusted line was .322/.405/.475, Liddi .275/.351/.475.
Week’s was also in the midwest elague in 2008, same as Liddi. Albeit a small portion of the season. His wOBA was .397, Liddi’s .314. Their park and luck adjusted lines: Weeks ops .803, Liddi’s .669.
In Cal league this year, Weeks’ walk rate and k rate 11.5%/19.9%, Liddi 9.7%/24.7%.
I also stated above, Weeks was the number 1 second basemen in terms of wOBA in the league, the next 4 guys being significantlt older. Liddi had a great wOBA, but a lot of it was park inflated. 17 of his 23 homers were at home. he played in a notorious hitter’s park, and I already have given the adjusted numbers from mls.
I think Liddi is an interesting prospect. And he is 19 months younger. It isn’t that big of a deal, but i think he and Weeks should be closer together in the rankings, at the least.
by wobatus on Oct 7, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Villalona
Given his legal troubles, I suppose Angel Villalona has bigger problems than a sub-par year in the Cal League. But for a guy who was #44 in the BA 100 at the beginning of the year, you’d he would have merited some comment in the article or the chat. Just to be clear, I’m not saying he should be on the list, I’m just saying he’s conspicuous by his absence. Do we just pretend that he doesn’t exist anymore?
by FI2 on Oct 5, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the answer to your question is most likely "yes".
Unless BA thinks that they just plain got his talent evaluation wrong, it’s the legal thing. And BA tends to stick with their opinions for quite a while, and I couldn’t blame them in this case . . .you’re going to get on a kid who was 18 years old in A+ for his performance when you loved his potential last year?
It’s really not much fun for anybody when projection refers to the number of years he’s likely to serve in jail.
by mrkupe on Oct 5, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Villalona
I agree, it’s rather odd for him to be missing (or rather has he fallen that quickly as a prospect). Other Giants or former Giants that in my opinion warrented consideration were Clayton Tanner, Scott Barnes, and Conner Gillaspie. I think Clayton Tanner warrented serious consideration for the list.
by Mistermidgetman on Oct 5, 2009 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hm...
Fatally shoot a guy in a bar, see your prospect status tank.
Sounds about right to me, actually.
by slamcactus on Oct 5, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d like to give the young man his day in court first. We don’t always know the details and its very easy to jump to conclusions. If convicted so be it, but I reserve judgement until then.
by Mistermidgetman on Oct 5, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure...
you can reserve judgment on his guilt, but best case scenario he isn’t back on a minor league baseball team until 2011 while he waits to resolve the issue. Worst case scenario, he never plays again.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think midgetman was referring to the “Fatally shoot a guy” part rather than the prospect status park.
by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Oct 6, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...
but I was talking about why he shouldn’t be ranked in any prospect list. Barring a miracle, he’s losing at least 1-2 years of development time even if he’s innocent. Combine that with the fact that he sucked last year, and he’s not a prospect anymore.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but....
The actual point (IMHO) was why BA would have ignored the elephant in the room in either the write-up or the chat. You don’t have to rank him, but I think you have to mention him.
by FI2 on Oct 6, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tanner
I like him, but he was repeating the league. He improved in lots of ways statistically but the huge uptick in HRs suggests that at least some of those gains might not be sustainable at higher levels.
He is what he is . . .a polished lefty with good command and okay stuff. A future major league pitcher of some sort. I think he probably would have made my top 20 here but it was a pretty weak year for the Cal League all things considered.
Something I’m wondering though . . .when you say that Tanner warranted serious consideration, are you implying that BA didn’t even think of him? I’m pretty certain that this is not the case . . .guys with ERAs around 3 in the Cal League get talk.
by mrkupe on Oct 5, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There’s a real solid poster over a Mccoveychronicles who saw Tanner pitch in game 1 of the Cal League semifinals. Supposedly he was around 90 on the fastball and even touched 93. Previous reports had him as a 86-88 mph type of guy.
If that velocity uptick is permanent I think it really improves his prospect status. To go from a fringe soft-tosser to slightly plus lefty velocity could make quite the difference.
by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Oct 6, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, no doubt
Anybody who picks up that much velocity is somebody to watch. But it might’ve been a one-time thing and/or it might have been a fast gun.
by mrkupe on Oct 6, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lol
This list is absolutely horrible after 1-2-3. Weeks should be in the top 5 easily (how the hell are guys like Liddi, Figueroa, Kieschnick, Luebke, Gillies, etc. ranked ahead of him???). Desme should at least be ranked in the top 10. Forsythe is ranked too low. Just a bad list.
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
by FrankCohen on Oct 5, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lol
In my opinion there is no way weeks should be ahead of Kieschnick, Liddi, Gillies, and Neal . They were just statistically superior to Weeks at a similar age for me with just as high a ceiling IMO.
by Mistermidgetman on Oct 5, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pelzer
I’m not familiar with him, anyone want to shed some light on what he throws/velocity and ceiling? thanks
by MightyMoose on Oct 5, 2009 6:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pelzer
Sits in the low-90’s can touch 94-95…
Also throws curve & slider & is working on his change
Some think he’s a future closer, some see 3rd starter ceiling…
Not as much col. experience as most – Allan Dykstra hit a line-drive off his knee cap (broke it) in the Cape Cod league so he also didn’t pitch the summer the Padres drafted him…
by pffriberg on Oct 7, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
steve johnson...
anyone have any idea why Steve johnson or the orioles, formerly of the dodgers was not included….
by matthewmafa on Oct 6, 2009 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Neal, Desme and Weeks
are all too low.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 6, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Figueroa
He was on BA’s prospect radar going back to last yr’s rule 5 draft, they were considering him a potential pick due to his mid 90s sinking FB and good slider for maybe a reliever type. He might also be rule 5 eligible if not added again. He’ll be 24 next yr and likely headed to AA. Surprised he was ranked at all let alone at 7, if there were pitchers to make the list from that same team i wouldve expected Ross, Capra, or even Hornbeck.
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 6, 2009 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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