First 2010 Mock Draft
I've posted my first 2010 mock draft on my blog, and I've posted the first ten picks below. The Tigers and Twins picks might be reversed depending on who wins tomorrow, but I picked the Twins to win, and therefore they're picking behind the Tigers. Here's the first ten picks with writeups:
1. Washington Nationals – Bryce Harper, C, CC of Southern Nevada – Harper’s not the best thing to ever happen to baseball, but he’s the frontrunner for this spot at the current moment. A big spring against more advanced competition will lock this spot up for him. He’s got some competition, but there’s no clear top talent behind him, so if the class is this muddy eight months from now, Harper’s going to go #1.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates – Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU – A lot of people are basing their judgment of Ranaudo on his College World Series performance, where he was noticeably tired and didn’t have his best stuff. However, it’s hard to find the pure size of Ranaudo, and his stuff is much better than that nationally-televised outing. Don’t look for pure gas or a Strasburg-like bender, but he grades out as above-average in everything with more projectability than your average collegiate. He’s a Boras client, so we’ll see if that affects his status, but for now he’s the best major college prospect.
3. Baltimore Orioles – Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS (TX) – I had a hard time putting Taillon below Ranaudo, but I still think Ranaudo’s more proven history puts him slightly above Taillon’s rawness. There’s no doubt to me that Taillon is the best pitcher the 2010 prep class has to offer, as he’s raised his stock clearly above A.J. Cole. He’s got great size, great projectability, and great current stuff, so there’s not much to dislike here. His main question mark will be his representation, and he’s got a Rice commitment, too, so when the signability fog begins to clear, we’ll have a better read.
4. Kansas City Royals – Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton – Colon may have broken his leg at the end of Team USA’s season, but that was only after he had established himself as the best all-around position player in the 2010 college class. He’s a good fielder with good instincts, a good hitter, and there’s really nothing he’s bad at. People will whine about his lack of dazzling tools, but Colon’s got a solid toolset with a solid skillset with great makeup, and there’s no reason to think he can’t be an above-average Major League shortstop in relatively short order. Assuming he recovers fully from the broken leg, he’s a top ten pick with a good spring.
5. Cleveland Indians – Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech – McGuire’s a polarizing figure, but no one doubts his pure size and stuff. Like Ranaudo, some say that McGuire’s prospect package relies too much on size and projectability and not enough on actual pitching ability. However, McGuire’s got an above-average fastball with a pair of breaking pitches and a good changeup, so I don’t see anything that isn’t Major League-caliber in terms of future grades. He’s got to firm up his command, but he’s definitely right up at the top of the pack for the 2010 college pitching class.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks – A.J. Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS (FL) – Cole, who was considered pretty much even with Taillon entering the summer, has had a good summer, but not one that matched Taillon’s. He’s also a really big kid, but with a much more projectable frame that some teams drool over. His fastball is of the plus variety, and his slurve (that’s what I call it) is a plus pitch, too. He’s got true number one potential, so I don’t see him falling too much unless he completely falls apart in the spring. He’s committed to Miami.
7. New York Mets – Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS (FL) – Here is the best name no one’s talking about. People always talk about Taillon and Cole while leaving Whitson’s name out, but I don’t necessarily see it that way. He’s of similar size to Cole, with similar projectability, also has a plus fastball, and possibly has more movement on that pitch. He’s got both a slider and curve, and while neither are plus now, they’ve got great potential, too. That whole package is going to attract droves of scouts, and I see him going the way of Zack Wheeler from the 2009 class.
8. Houston Astros – Zack Cox, 3B, Arkansas – Cox is the best draft-eligible sophomore in the 2010 class, and he’s arguably the best overall hitter in the entire class. A lefty in the box, he’s got plus power and hit tools, but he’s lacking a bit in the pitch recognition and plate discipline departments. The big question he’ll look to answer in the spring is whether he can stick at third base, as some see him as a first baseman with hard hands and below-average third base range. His arm is a plus, so I’d give him every chance to play at third as long as he’s hitting.
9. San Diego Padres – Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Ole Miss – Left-handed power arms are hard to come by, and Pomeranz has one. There’s been some big questions about his arm action, and his lack of athleticism leads me to believe he’s going to be susceptible to the big arm injury. However, up to now he’s been healthy and effective, and his breaking ball can be one of the best in the 2010 class. He’s big, has a solid history, and is left-handed, so it’s hard to see him dropping out of the top fifteen without an injury of some sort.
10. Oakland Athletics – Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast – Sale was the star of the Cape Cod League this summer, and most prospect buffs would be lying to you if they told you they knew who he was before his summer run. He’s going to battle Pomeranz and James Paxton for the top lefty in the college class during the spring, and there’s a good chance Sale comes out ahead. He’s also big, standing at 6′6”, but he’s projectable too, as he might be able to add a good twenty pounds to his frame. He’s got a plus fastball with good movement and an effective changeup, and I see Sale as a relatively safe pick as far as pitchers go.
The rest of the picks are on the blog. Direct link here.
What do you think?
5 recs |
46 comments
Comments
Nice write-up, Andy
I’d be kind of disappointed if the Pirates pass up Taillon. After passing on Matzek, I really think they have to go upside despite the risks involved with HS pitchers. It’s still incredibly early though, and I’m sure that my preference will change once the college season starts.
And I remember Sammy Solis getting a lot of hype by BA before he hurt his back. How is his draft stock, and could he move into the 1st round with a good season?
by jar75 on Oct 5, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And I remember Sammy Solis getting a lot of hype by BA before he hurt his back. How is his draft stock, and could he move into the 1st round with a good season?
Solis is probably a second-rounder at the moment. Being left-handed helps him a lot, but it’s not enough to push him in quite yet. A great spring will definitely help his cause. He’s another really big kid, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy before he’s a real first-round type of guy.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 5, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great work.
Like Brett Jackson last year, I think Derek Dietrich is going to sneak back into the first round even if he doesn’t have a monster junior year.
by slamcactus on Oct 5, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
Like his tools a lot. Still dreaming Houston had signed he and Eibner
by byronlhsdrmr on Oct 5, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good work, Andy.
I know it’s very early, but do you have a sense of what kind of draft this is going to be? I mean that in a deep/shallow, college/prep, arm/bat kind of sliding-scale way. In particular, I’m interested in how deep the draft looks to be in infield prospects — because my team is badly in need of some.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 5, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Infield prospects should be better than last year.
Starting with Colon, the college group includes Zack Cox, Rick Hague, Jedd Gyorko, Derek Dietrich, and Hunter Morris, all guys that could be potentially first-rounders.
On the prep side, it has better top-end talent than a year ago, when only Jiovanni Mier, Bobby Borchering, and Nick Franklin were first-rounders, and most thought Franklin was undeserving of that spot. Manny Machado, Yordy Cabrera, Justin O’Conner, Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant, Anthony Wolters, and Zach Alvord all have first-round potential, so it’s an up year there.
On the whole, it’s looking like it’s another pitchers year.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 8, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Three HS pitchers in the top seven picks ...
A bit optimistic maybe?
And by optimistic I mean from the team point of view. Would they be willing to go so high with that most unpredictable of all animals: the teenage hurler?
by Frayed Knot on Oct 5, 2009 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bonus Demands
That will be the biggest deterrent against the HS arms. I don’t think this is a particularly strong college class, and I think those projections are justified.
by jar75 on Oct 5, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Three went this past Draft
Hobgood – Wheeler – Turner
by byronlhsdrmr on Oct 5, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
Matzek, Purke, James, and Miller all came in the 11-19 range, too. Seven prep pitchers in the first 19 picks.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 5, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most unpredictable?
Not so sure about that one, and there’s been some work done that would go against your assertion.
I don’t think it’s really optimistic, and it’s something that stands to become more pronounced as time goes on. Three reasons:
1) Teams really are getting smarter at figuring out what elements make a HS age pitcher more risky. It’s not happening fast, but it is happening.
2) Teams are more willing to pay big bucks for the guy that they really like in the draft. And seeing as prep pitchers generally do cost a lot, it makes sense that they get increased consideration.
3) This one is a biggie. As teams spend more and more money to buy away prep arms from college, the college pitching classes are going to get weaker in quality over time. You’ll see some guys develop in college and turn into quality prospects, but the overall quality of annual classes will drop.
Just take a look at how many guys seemed like virtual locks to go to college this year before teams stepped in and threw big packages at them. It’s definitely going to have an effect in 3 years.
by mrkupe on Oct 5, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice work
I disagree with your take on the Cubs’ drafting philosophy (especially since they’ve targeted college players extensively since Wilken took over), but good effort on something this early.
by Outshined_One on Oct 5, 2009 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking more along the lines of Cashner.
Not prep versus college. They don’t have a problem picking an arm that might project as a reliever, or even be a current reliever, and have them start.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 8, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tailon
Not to split hairs, but how projectable is Tailon? At 6-7, 230 he has to be close to physically maxed. I do not doubt his stuff, but does he really project to add any velocity?
by bl on Oct 6, 2009 1:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He projects to solidify his velocity.
Projection isn’t always about adding velocity to a level you’ve never thrown before. It’s sometimes about firming up a high velocity scouts have seen. Taillon fits in the latter category, as he projects to more consistently sit at a higher level than he sits right now, generally moving up towards his peak velocity, which is phenomenal. Repeating mechanics and getting strength in the right places have as much of an effect as adding twenty pounds sometimes.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 8, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Athletics pick
It looks like a very good pick for the A’s. He’s a college pitcher with projectability, something that Beane likes. Last time Beane had a top 10 pick he took Barry Zito. Before that it was Mark Mulder. So this pick makes a lot of sense.
Personally, I’m still hoping the A’s use one more year on the offensive side.** One more impact bat (to go along with the good if flawed bats of Wallace and Carter) would turn the outlook for the A’s lineup from good to very good. But that’s just my own commentary on the A’s situation.
You did good with your mock draft.
**Note: I am not an MLB draft noob, I know that drafting on need is not wise. These are just my druthers.
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by nobodyinparticular on Oct 6, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but
what impact bats will be out there available for the 10th pick? I think Sale would be a safe pick.
Nice write up.
by oakballnack on Oct 8, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don’t think the Pirates are going to take a pitcher with the second overall pick. They practically bent over backwards to not do that this year, and I’m not sure why next year would be any different. I think they’re much more likely to grab high-upside arms later in the draft, just like they did this year.
by Charlie on Oct 6, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the way its looking right now, if the Pirates have an opportunity to pick Taillon and they don’t I will be furious. I think he is the 2nd best player behind Harper and has been more consistent over this summer.
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by kstanz41 on Oct 6, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will too
but I won’t be surprised. I think they go with another guy who signs quickly for slot. The last 2 negotiations (Alvarez and Sano), where this front office has tried to play hard ball, haven’t exactly gone well. They nearly lost Alvarez without compensation for signing him after the deadline and they pissed off Sano’s agent by trying to go around him.
by jar75 on Oct 6, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think the slot thing is an issue. That was just a strategy they used last year, when there wasn’t really a premium talent available to them with the fourth pick. They’ve gone over slot on tons of players in the past two years; it’s just that in 2009 they didn’t do it in the first round. Instead they took a ton of players over slot later on, including Zach Von Rosenberg, Colton Cain, Trent Stevenson, Jeff Inman, Zac Fuesser, and probably others… those are just off the top of my head. I think they probably do want someone who will sign quickly, but I don’t think they will let that get in the way of signing a premium talent.
BTW, where do you get the idea that they wouldn’t have gotten any compensation for not signing Alvarez? I’m not saying you’re wrong, but that’s the first I remember hearing about that.
I think they just don’t want to pick a pitcher that early. With Strasburg, they probably would have, but with any lesser talent, I think they see it as too risky. Top pitching talents flame out with much greater frequency than top hitting talents. Every team knows this, and yet every year a zillion teams take pitchers in the first round. It’s bizarre. The Pirates had their choice of ten or so pitchers last year who would have been defensible choices with the fourth pick, and they didn’t take any of them. I think they might be the rare team who really would much rather spend their #1 draft picks on hitters except in completely exceptional situations.
by Charlie on Oct 6, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
-I disagree, Tyler Matzek was a premium talent, and well worth the bonus that he got. Neal misread the market and ended up overpaying for Tony Sanchez. The extra ~$1.5M that it would have cost to sign Matzek would not have hampered their ability to go overslot.
-It’s mild conjecture, but the rumors going around going into the arbitration hearing were in Boras’s favor. MLB stepped in and helped the Pirates out. Here’s an excerpt from a KG article on it:
“Sources indicate that the first day of testimony, which featured Commissioner Bud Selig and Dan Halem, MLB’s number two labor attorney, did not go well in any way for major league baseball. The feeling among many is that MLB informed the Pirates to work out the best deal possible, as some worst-case scenarios were suddenly looking very possible, primarily the one that included the initial deal being voided and the Pirates being punished by losing their compensation pick for not signing him.”
-That could be their philosophy, but I disagree with it. Yes, pitchers are riskier, but I don’t like the idea of picking a lesser talent simply because he’s deemed safer. And defensive first catchers are not exactly safe picks if you want to profile prospects that way.
by jar75 on Oct 6, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if you need to make a formal offer in order to recieve compensation?
Related to the rule for free agents?
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by OldProspects on Oct 8, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For a draft pick?
You do, but it’s totally nominal. There’s no risk involved like there is with arbitration— it’s as though all you had to do to get a pick for a free agent was to offer him a deal at the league minimum salary.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2009 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i completely agree
taillon is an insane talent.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Oct 6, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colon
Andy(or anyone ) who is the better prospect..Christian Colon or Grant Green? how do they compare?
by NYSOX on Oct 7, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's tough to compare.
Green has the better physical tools, without a doubt. However, Colon has the better all-around game when you include fielding. Green’s big drawback was his consistency at shortstop, and some still think he’ll have to move. Colon will move to second if he has to move anywhere, and his offense and defense will be above-average at either spot in all likelihood. So I’d give Green the long-term advantage with the bat, for reasons of raw power and pure speed. The hit tools are similar. Colon wins with the glove.
A lot depends on how Colon does in his return to the field after his broken leg. If he comes back just as solid as he was with Team USA this summer, I take Colon 9 times out of 10, generally because I think Colon will max out his potential, which is pretty good, while Green’s more iffy in that regard.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 8, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So barring Colon not having injury questions…he goes higher then Green would have? I am hoping that Mcguire or Colon are there for the Dbacks
by NYSOX on Oct 8, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I think Colon will go higher.
If he’s healthy and productive. If he has a season like Green did in 2009, where he created more questions than he answered, then I think Colon will go lower, simply because he doesn’t have the natural tools for a team to say that he’ll recover and turn into the superstar everyone thought he was.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 8, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I find it somewhat irritatingly repetitive that every mock draft seems obligated to peg the A's
with a college starter who is a “relatively safe pick.”
They don’t pick James Simmons every season. In fact, they’ve only spent two first-rounders on college arms this decade, and I have no idea whether Brad Sullivan was considered “safe” at the time— if he was, people sure as hell blew that one, because he was nothing of the sort.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2009 1:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't put him there for the safety.
I put him there because he was the best on the board. Sale has way more upside than Simmons had.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 8, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Er, this is not quite correct
I meant to say two top picks, since they had multiple first-rounders in a few seasons and I know at least one of them (Blanton) was a college starter.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2011 Draft
I keep hearing that teams would take Alex Meyer, Gerritt Cole, Dillon Howard, Danny Hultzen or Sonny Gray over any of the pitchers mentioned here for the 2010 draft. Are you guys hearing the same thing about 2011?
"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)
by jmoultz on Oct 8, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not especially.
They are definitely more talented as a group, but not every pitcher would be picked over a Ranaudo or Taillon. Cole and Meyer are ahead of Howard, Hultzen, and Gray in my book, and I don’t think Howard even enters that conversation in my mind. I still favor Daniel Norris (Tennessee prep) and the two Oklahoma kids (Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley) over Howard as far as preps go.
Personally, I’d pick Cole ahead of either Ranaudo or Taillon, and that’s a definite answer. However, once you get into Alex Meyer territory, you’re looking at splitting hairs over small differences and preferences. Cole’s ahead of any pitcher in the 2010 class, but the rest are iffy.
Other pitching names for 2011 I might favor over Meyer et al.: Jack Armstrong (Vandy), Matt Purke (TCU), Taylor Jungmann (Texas), Cecil Tanner (UGA).
There’s a lot of time between now and June 2011.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 8, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well at least the 2011 draft looks fairly deep
The first time since drafting Barry Zito #9 overall in 1999 that the A’s are in the top 10, there is a noted lack of top level talent. With the rebuilding effort moving forward, I expect the A’s to be back in the middle of the teens next year. So they still won’t get a chance at top level talent. But at least the talent level is deep…
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by nobodyinparticular on Oct 8, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Purke will be in the 2011 draft?
Draft guru in training.
by tj.hendricks on Oct 10, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can you answer this?
Maybe I’m totally off. I believe I read that if the Nationals were to redraft Aaron Crow they would need his permission, is this true? If so, does the same hold true about Purke(Rangers), Washington(Rays), or Cole (Yankees)? Do you always have to have permission to redraft a player? Thanks.
Draft guru in training.
by tj.hendricks on Oct 10, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scheppers and Crow refused to sign re-draft waivers in 2009
However I don’t know if a player that refuses a contract with a team would need to sign a re-draft waiver for just the following year’s draft or if they’d need to sign one for any future drafts.
by jibs on Oct 10, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You only need a waiver to pick the same player two years in a row.
You can pick a player multiple times if there’s at least a year between picking them, no waiver required. The Rangers could pick Purke when he’s eligible in 2011, but the Rays can’t pick Washington again next year when he’s eligible again out of JUCO.
Cole can be picked by the Yankees without his permission.
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by Andy Seiler on Oct 11, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for clearing that up for me.
Draft guru in training.
by tj.hendricks on Oct 11, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strength of class
How do you view this class shaping up in terms of overall strength? It seems to me to be somewhat of a down year even with Harper at the top. One way to do it: how would you rank the last 5 years in terms of draft talent (at the time of the draft), and throw in 2011 for fun.
by threesixteen on Oct 8, 2009 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BTW, I just upload video of most of these guys over at ProspectTube.com
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 12, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
uploaded*
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 12, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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