Jordan Lyles: Under-hyped or Overrated?
by laxtonto on Oct 29, 2009 3:33 PM EDT
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It seems that with the first run of prospect lists coming out, that there is going to be once again a few lighting rod prospects. One it seems is going to be Jordan Lyles.
Lyles lit up A ball with a 10.39 K per 9 and a 2.42 FIP in 144 ip while walking 2.39 per 9. This led to his being voted the 6th best prospect in the South Atlantic League by BA with these comments:
Lyles showed the stuff of a potential frontline starter this season. His fastball now sits at 89-91 mph and touches 93. Using a high three-quarters, clean and quick arm action and a repeatable delivery, he challenges hitters with his heater and finished second in the SAL with 167 strikeouts in 145 innings.
"He's the first pitcher I saw say, 'Here you go, Melky Mesa,' and throw him four straight fastballs and strike him out," Tyson said. "After he struck him out and turned around, I saw a little grin on his face, which I like. He's a bulldog, a competitor."
Lyles throws two different curveballs, a show-me pitch in the mid-70s and a sharper 77-80 mph bender. He might be better served scrapping the slower curveball, which he leaves up in the zone. He mixes in an average changeup and started throwing a slider halfway through the season.
The other side of this argument comes from the questions in his ability to keep generating the strike out numbers as he faces better competition. Adam Foster of ProjectProspect.com wrote this in his conclusion of his article on Lyles:
The scouts I spoke with each named a handful of pitching prospects in the South Atlantic League alone who impressed them more than Lyles. Going off buzz from members of our community and the information that's circulating around the web on Lyles, I think he's someone who's likely to enter 2010 very overhyped due to his Low-A walk and strikeout rates.
Looking deep into his numbers, watching a large portion of his 2009 starts, and talking to multiple scouts about Lyles, I see more than a few weaknesses in his game. The main one is that he relies on hitters chasing his fastball up in the zone. Once he faces guys who don't do that, he's likely going to slam into a wall.
So which side of the fence do people here side? Is he being overrated due to his excellent performance against the South Atlantic League's inexperienced hitters or is he undervalued due to his reflection of age and performance in comparison to his numbers?
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I think
that this year, perhaps moreso than in year’s past (after the top few arms, I think there’s a cluster of 20-25 arms that don’t grade all that differently), there’s going to be some young arms that sort of fit into the same category as Jordan Lyles (Withrow and Mejia come to mind) as highly talented youngsters that are still far away, and as such, might generate some difference of opinion on where they should rank.
In Lyles case, in general, I think he’s a bit underrated … but a bit overhyped. I can’t claim to have closely analyzed Lyles this year, considering he wasn’t in a league with Cubs prospects. His talent seems legit. Foster’s comments seem a bit too much for me – all successful pitchers in the lower levels take advantage of whatever they have an advantage on. If that’s a high fastball that people can’t catch up with, then so be it. If that’s a plus breaking ball, fine. I’m sure Lyles has stuff he needs to work on, and therein may lie the difference in grades, but to suggest he’ll slam into a wall due to stats showing folks needing to chase his high fastball … well, I don’t necessarily buy that. Heck, I may be more impressed that he can succeed off his fastball, considering raw talent in the lower levels often only focus on it.
That’s me, though.
by toonsterwu on Oct 29, 2009 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
umm...
How can you be underrated and overhyped at the same time? Just doesn’t make sense. Does that mean you think he is properly valued?
Also, comparing Lyles to Withrow and Mejia is doing a big disservice to the latter arms. Lyles hasn’t pitched above low-A, while Withrow and Mejia both got to showcase his talent a bit in AA. Lyles doesn’t deserve to be in the discussion with them, he’s at least a year behind both if not more.
You can
I fully agree with toonster. What there is are two different camps. Camp 1 is hyping Lyles as being the next best thing since sliced bread.
Camp 2 isn’t in the middle ground saying he’s not that good, but he’s good. Camp 2 is closer to saying Camp 1 is a bunch of screaming lunatics for thinking Lyles is significantly better than last year.
When you have no middle ground, no base of support in the middle, you can be overhyped and undervalued. It means that there is a group that hypes Lyles more than he deserves, and a group that detracts from Lyles more than is appropriate, but no one in the middle. Perfect sense to me.
Yep
I agree too. Toonster hit the nail on the head also about the tiers of pitching prospects. I’m still in the initial stage of my lists, but right now Lyles is slotted in my Top 15 pitching prospects, but could slide up or down pretty easily as I get more into my research.
A handful of better pitchers in the SALLY
Interesting quote from Adam Foster. Of course, Martin Perez, Matthew Moore and Casey Kelly are all in the Sally. The league had some good starters this year.
I was intrigued by PP’s take on him. Toonsterwu, it wasn’t stats that convinced him Lyles was relying on high fastball, but watching games, tape and talking to scouts. It’s not like he is Yusmeiro Petit, but it could be that older hitters will lay off the high fastball. But i think Lyles may be better than they give him credit for, albeit I have seen no tape or spoken to any scouts. Just the numbers and the BA take to go on.
His point was...
That maybe he was “relying” on the high fastball because he knew hitters couldn’t do anything with it. Why would he change and try to nibble when he knows the hitters are impatient enough to swing at stuff out of the zone?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
sorry misread the first time through
was skimming. That said, still doesn’t make that big a deal to me. Heck, I’m not a gigantic off the charts Lyles fan, but honestly, if he can strike people out on a hard, high fastball now, that makes it more impressive to me because if he tightens everything else up, then that’s a pretty dang good pitching prospect.
That said, as noted, I can’t claim to know that much on Lyles (outside of Frederick loving him) as he wasn’t in a league with Cubs prospects.
all relative , depends on who s opinion we are talking about
i think foster way underrates him .. i disagree with foster a lot.
probably a bit overrated
He’s a nice prospect with above-average command for his age, multiple pitches, and some projection. It’s a nice package that shouldn’t be overlooked, and it’s not unforeseeable that he takes the Brandon McCarthy/Jeremy Hellickson path through the minors . . .ability to mix high fastballs into one’s repertoire effectively DOES play at higher levels.
But . . .he’s also a guy with a fairly ordinary fastball for the moment, and his other pitches aren’t any more than average for now. If you took this package and translated it to the major leagues, you have a No. 4 starter who can eat some innings.
Lefties like this...
always have Andy Pettite to look at. Sounds like he’s got similar stuff to Mike Minor, and I also really like Minor.
I think
SenorGato is simply saying that, to dismiss a righty with his current profile, while supporting a lefty, isn’t necessarily fair. I mean, there is a tendency to give the “soft-tossing” lefty (not that 89-91 on a 2 seamer, and higher on a 4 seamer is exactly soft-tossing) the benefit of the doubt moreso than the righty version.
That said, Lyles has more projectability than Minor, both of whom I like.
could be wrong on what SenorGato is saying, though.
That and...
I also missed that they’re generally intelligent pitchers.
Deception, command, and movement get underrated with RHPs for some reason. They last.
I was just thinking...
Has anyone here seen Lyles pitch (in person or on MiLB.tv.)?
I’d be interested in hearing from more people who have had a chance to take a look at him.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
I've been in the batters box
I’ve played with and against Jordan since Little League(I was one year ahead of him). He was special even at that point, and he was a star in the making in HS. The best thing he has going, as somebody said earlier, is the deception on his pitches. And his two-seamer explodes out of his hand, and looks like its 95-96 when its really 88-90, or at least it was my senior year. He’s a great athlete and as long as he continues to learn how to command his secondary stuff, he’ll be a star in the big leagues before too long.
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