Vote on Prospect trade (Bruce, Morrison, etc).
by Wilbur Wood on Oct 29, 2009 11:20 AM EDT
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Okay, I've set up a poll to make this easy. Assume a 5x5 16 team Mixed Dynasty League (no salaries). Interested in this as much for folks perspective on some of the talent involved, in particular Jay Bruce and Logan Morrison.
I have already proposed this deal and will make it or not, regardless of the outcome of this poll but would like to stimulate any views opions on the talent involved.
Jay Bruce & Ryan Westmoreland
for
Edwin Jackson & Logan Morrison.
Bruce played 2009 as his age 22 season. While his avg was tepid and contact rate low, he is due for some luck based increase in his BABAIP% The power is real and he still has a chance to blossom, although I doubt he's a player that will hit above 280 on a regular basis.
Jackson looks like he'll be a steady #3SP for several years. Still has the potential to take another step forward, although personally I think that he is "what you see is what you get".
Westmoreland is all tools and will rank high by places like BA that grade tools over performance and not so high by guys like Sickels who favor production. Injury risk seems a bit of a red flag
Morrison. Should be a solid 1B. A better MLB player than a fantasy player given that he'll likely be a ~ 20 HR guy (without speed) and that production is pretty easy to replace in Mixed fantasy leagues.
Thanks
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Jay Bruce Future Average
I think a lot of people are underestimating Jay Bruce’s potential in the Batting Average department. Using the xBABIP tool that was developed by the fellows at Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/), we come up with an xBABIP of .293, based on current K rates, HR/FB rates, etc., that would be a batting average of .275. This is assuming no component improvements from someone who turns 23 around Opening Day next year.
On the component improvement note… Fangraphs wrote a great article describing how his Plate Discipline and Contact Rate both improved from 2008 to 2009. Article can be found here…
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/believe-in-jay-bruce
All thngs considered, I wouldn’t call someone crazy if they saw Jay Bruce having a .320, 45 HR season in his future.
"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"
I would take...
Jackson and Morrison. Jackson will be a good number 3 pitcher on a pretty good team. He will get wins, strikeouts, and have a good ERA. Morrison could be an above average major league first baseman. I like him a lot and could see him having a couple 30 homer seasons.
I don’t like Bruce. I can’t see him hitting anything above 270 and though he will probably hit for good power. Westmoreland is a very good prospect, but is far off and may never even make it.
I agree with this post, except for...well...everything.
Bruce is easily the best player in the deal. He’s got elite power, and 10%BB to 22%K is a plus for a 22-year old player’s future batting average outlook, not a minus. Jackson is a mediocre starter who is coming off of a lucky year. His xFIP was 4.58 in 2009. He’s just not a special pitcher in any way, statistically, and he’s going to disappoint you if you expect him to repeat or build on last year.
Morrison and Westmoreland comes down to your preference. Morrison’s closer, but he’s also a first baseman who’s never slugged .500. He’s a more valuable prospect than Westmoreland, but a lot of people love the latter’s ceiling.
Bruce, all the way. People who buy his stock this offseason are going to be very happy when it goes through the roof.
Hmm
Sure he has a 10% BB rate if you ignore the first 2000 PA of his career.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Oct 30, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the most recent season's information is the most important, yes.
The funny thing about 22-year-old hitters is that they—get this—develop.
I, like the original poster, have serious reservations about what kind of fantasy asset Morrison will be in a traditonal 5X5
…but I agree, Bruce >>>> Jackson is enough of a difference to nix the trade for me right there.
with Morrison's OBP ability...
…and the fact that he’ll be hitting behind Maybin, Coghlan, and HanRam for years to come… I’ll take him over the much farther away Westmoreland… and I am way into upside.
For Fantasy purposes...
Traditonal 5×5 = no OBP…
I certainly don’t dislike Morrison, but I have a hard time drafting a 1B in fantasy when I have concerns over his power. Its very, very hard to become a fantasy asset at 1B. You basically have to be one of the top 6/top 10(charitably) 1B in the league. I have a very hard time seeing that in Morrison in a league that doesnt count OBP. I have a much easier time buying into the lottery ticket that is Westmoreland – who has boatloads of speed and power. Its is intrinsically easier to be a fantasy asset as OFer than it is at 1B. Most leagues play 3 OFers, so to be useful, a player need only be a top 36 OF in a 12 team mixed league. To be a plus asset, he need only be top 18 – which basically only requires him to have a bit of speed and a bit of power, which gives him a huge value boost over guys who excel in one category…
Basically, Id rate Westmoreland’s chances of being a plus fantasy asset as much higher than Morrison’s – even correcting for the risk that Westmoreland is far away (though obviously makes it closer).
The lineup argument doesn’t sway me… Westmoreland ostensibly would be hitting in Fenway in the Red Sox lineup. Obviously we have no idea who will be in it by that point… but still…
Also, Let’s say Westmoreland turns into a ~15 HR/~15 SB kind of player (and I think his tools indicate more of each right now). That would be a lot harder to replace than what Morrison gives you in fantasy…
ah yeah
5×5, i know, i forgot to type out that with the 3 guys I mentioned getting on base [plus other bats behind], Morrison’s strong OBP skills will lead to many RBI and Runs , at least, more than i think most would project for him.
as for yr points, they are good. I just see Morrison as being one of the safest bats if not the safest bat in the minors. don’t forget his wrist injury this year sapped his power.
Do you think HanRam is going to sign long term?
The Marlins tend to let their home grown stars walk as free agents, or trade them before they reach free agency.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Oct 31, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Bruce could be a superstart
He could be the best player in baseball some years, it’s definitely within the realm of possibility as the first reply indicates. You’ll be very sorry if you trade him away this offseason and he shows everyone what he’s all about this next year.
I agree with the first post in this thread; Bruce could hit .320 with 45 HR sometime during his career. Sounds crazy right now, but it’s possible.
Edwin Jackson and Logan Morrison will both be all right players but neither of them will ever be big stars. Morrison needs to develop more power to ever be more than a fringe option in a traditional mixed fantasy league.
And a pretty good end too
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Can I join your league?
Seriously – if you’re even CONSIDERING this trade, you’re nuts! This isn’t even close!
First I never mentioned which side of the deal I was on as I was not looking for “should I do the deal or not”. Suffice to say that I’m getting Bruce. Also, due to limits on roster sizes there only ~ 40 to 50 minor leaguers rostered at any point in time. Thus, technically Westmoreland is not part of the deal but is unrostered and would be added as a result of freeing up a roster slot in a 2-for-1 deal.
Did not want to bore anyone with the vagaries of this league but it has an excellent and experienced group of owners and is very competitive.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
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