daveh's top 111 prospects for 2010
Been working on this list for about a month now, tweaking/reading up on these guys. I was going to wait til the AFL was over to finalize it, but I think not much will change between now and then. I mostly just wanted to get reports on Strasberg, Scheppers, and Castro. the way K Law talks about Castro, it sounds like he might put him top 20. while i am not going that high on him, I am pretty impressed by what's been said about him.
I used 130 PAs instead of ABs as the cutoff.... by accident at first, then by choice [it just seems weird to me that a couple walks determine it] ... so thats why Gamel and Escobar aren't here... I don't feel strongly for or against their statuses, so i guess if i were to list them, they'd be about where other people would have them.
I approach my lists as though I am a GM drafting for my team. 'Take the best player available' approach. Until proven, they are all prospects, so I do tend to value upside more-so than others. Parker and Scheppers would both be top 20 if not for their injury concerns.
1. Jason Heyward - OF ATL
2. Stephen Strasburg - P WAS
3. Buster Posey - C SF
4. Michael Stanton - OF FLA
5. Jesus Montero - C NYY
6. Carlos Santana - C CLE
7. Domonic Brown - OF PHI
8. Desmond Jennings - OF TB
9. Brian Matusz - P BAL
10. Neftali Feliz - P TEX
11. Martin Perez - P TEX
12. Logan Morrison - 1B FLA
13. Pedro Alvarez - 3B PIT
14. Justin Smoak - 1B TEX
15. Christian Friedrich - P COL
16. Dustin Ackley - OF SEA
17. Kyle Drabek - P PHI
18. Fernando Martinez - OF NYM
19. Matthew Moore - P TB
20. Jordan Lyles - P HOU
21. Michael Taylor - OF PHI
22. Jenrry Mejia - P NYM
23. Lonnie Chisenhall - 3B CLE
24. Wade Davis - P TB
25. Jeremy Hellickson - P TB
26. Brett Wallace - 3B OAK
27. Freddie Freeman - 1B ATL
28. Derek Norris - C WAS
29. Jaff Decker - OF SD
30. Hector Rondon - P CLE
31. Madison Bumgarner - P SF
32. Chris Carter - 1B OAK
33. Starlin Castro - SS CHC
34. Aaron Crow - P KC
35. Julio Teheran - P ATL
36. Casey Kelly - P BOS
37. Yonder Alonso - 1B CIN
38. Michael Moustakas - 3B KC
39. Tim Beckham - SS TB
40. Ryan Westmoreland - OF BOS
41. Ike Davis - 1B NYM
42. Grant Desme - OF OAK
43. Reid Brignac - SS TB
44. Tyler Matzek - P COL
45. Todd Frazier - 2B CIN
46. Aaron Hicks - OF MIN
47. Chris Withrow - P LAD
48. Nick Weglarz - OF CLE
49. Michael Montgomery - P KC
50. Tyler Flowers - C CHW
51. Josh Bell - 3B BAL
52. Michael Saunders - OF SEA
53. Jhoulys Chacin - P COL
54. Casey Crosby - P DET
55. Thomas Neal - 1B SF
56. Dan Hudson - P CHW
57. Tanner Scheppers - P TEX
58. Simon Castro - P SD
59. Brett Lawrie - 2B MIL
60. Jacob Turner - P DET
61. Shelby Miller - P STL
62. Jason Knapp - P CLE
63. Jake Arrieta - P BAL
64. Josh Reddick - OF BOS
65. Austin Jackson - OF NYY
66. Zach Wheeler - P SF
67. Danny Duffy - P KC
68. Danny Espinosa - SS WAS
69. Devaris Gordon - SS LAD
70. Jarrod Parker - P ARI
71. Wil Myers - C KC
72. Ben Revere - OF MIN
73. Josh Vitters - 3B CHC
74. Tim Melville - P KC
75. Alex Avila - C DET
76. Zach Britton - P BAL
77. Manny Banuelos - P NYY
78. Jay Jackson - P CHC
79. Grant Green - SS OAK
80. Ethan Martin - P LAD
81. Scott Sizemore - 2B DET
82. Zach Stewart - P TOR
83. Carlos Carrasco - P CLE
84. Brad Lincoln - P PIT
85. Christian Bethancourt - C ATL
86. Hak-Ju Lee - SS CHC
87. Cody Scarpetta - P MIL
88. Jiovanni Mier - SS HOU
89. Alex White - P CLE
90. James Darnell - 3B SD
91. Alex Liddi - 3B SEA
92. Eric Hosmer - 1B KC
93. Hank Conger - C LAA
94. Tony Sanchez - C PIT
95. Randall Delgado - P ATL
96. Anthony Capra - P OAK
97. Mike Trout - OF LAA
98. Alex Colome - P TB
99. Wilmer Flores - SS NYM
100. Jared Mitchell - OF CHW
101. Wilson Ramos - C MIN
102. Brett Jackson - OF CHC
103. Chase D'Arnaud - 2B PIT
104. Arodys Vizcaino - P NYY
105. Donovan Tate - OF SD
106. Bobby Borchering - 3B ARI
107. Brandon Erbe - P BAL
108. Ian Desmond - SS WAS
109. Wilmer Font - P TEX
110. Stolmy Pimentel - P BOS
111. Miguel Sano - SS MIN
the 'rest':
Jemile Weeks - 2B OAK
Kyle Gibson - P MIN
Tyson Gillies - OF SEA Andrew Cashner - P CHC
Travis Wood - P CIN
Bradley Holt - P NYM
Jose Tabata - OF PIT
Rex Brothers - P COL Logan Forsythe - 3B SD
Adrian Cardenas - 2B OAK
Kyle Allen - P NYM
Nick Barnese - P TB
Kyle Lobstein - P TB
Juan Francisco - 3B CIN
Travis D'Arnaud - C PHI
Josh Thole - C NYM
Jason Castro - C HOU
Phillipe Aumont - P SEA
Ryan Kalish - OF BOS
Austin Romine - C NYY
Matt Dominguez - 3B FLA
Zach McAllister - P NYY
David Bromberg - P MIN
09 draftees in 111: 18
09 draftees in HM: 2
3 recs |
236 comments
Comments
Great List
things I like:
the emphasize on ranking such as Dominic Brown, Starlin Castro, Derek Norris (although I think its a tad high)
and Brett Lawrie, Nick Weglarz, Jordan Lyles
things I DON’T like:
the ranking of Tanner Scheppers – wow you must not see any more ‘growing’ room for Tanner…..TOO HIGH
the rank of Jason Knapp, Jiovanni Mier also Christian Bethencort ….
all in all pretty darn interesting and good read.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
don't understand yr comment on Scheppers/
you think I over-rated him? or that I don’t think he’ll ‘grow’ more and I under-rated him?
and the other guys… Knapp, Mier, and Bethancourt, you think I placed too high?
I’ll admit Knapp was one of the most difficult to place.
Norris would be top 20 if he was getting better defensive reviews
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Tanner Scheppers is a great prospect
but to me, largely because of questionably surrounding his durability and command he is a fringe top 100 guy
if you rank Scheppers in the 50s I would say Kyle Gibson should be close to right behind him…..
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you may be right over Gibson
i am more concerned over his arm… I did have him all over the back end [80-111 range] depending on the stuff i was reading/feeling at the time, and he did end up low
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I must say
I think the inclusions of Will Myers, Gerald Green, Jarrod Parker, and Zach Stewart are bold.
I like those, but, Myers that high over Donavan Tate I might have a little trouble with,,,,,
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i will now admit to my severe manlust over Myers
a guy with his bat at C, with his athleticism, who could possibly play CF if he can’t catch… reminds me of Biggio a bit.
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same.
EPIC bat.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Green is especially bold.
Never seen anybody tough enough to rank a Dallas Maverick in the top 100.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
by hero66 on Oct 29, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Growing room?
If Scheppers had never been hurt, he’s a top 20 guy.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Oct 29, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anybody second this?
(besides daveh, and Brickhaus)
because I am thrown for a loop here….
Scheppers has a 97 MPH fastball ?
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 29, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think he's like a tick below Stras. and one writer recently mentioned this [klaw i think]
if I have Stras at #2… then an unquestionably healthy Schep could very well be 12-20
by daveh33 on Oct 29, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the greatness of having pitch fx in 2 out of the 3 AFL stadiums
OCT 22 – Avg 96.36 Top 98.2
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Oct 29, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one outing
less than 3 innings…. easier for him to dial it up
by PHGold09 on Oct 30, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was doing the same thing his
first outing in the AFL is you trust the twitter reports from KLAW
Scheppers’ first ten fastballs: 95 96 95 97 98 97 98 98 96 95 96.
From Keith Law:
“Tanner Scheppers, a supplemental pick by the Texas Rangers this year who signed for first-round money, was even more impressive than Cashner, sitting at 95-98 with a vicious curveball with hard, late two-plane break. He appeared to be amped up for the short outing; I doubt he’d sit at that velocity as a starter, but even 92-95 with that breaking ball would get hitters out multiple times per game. His arm works well, and his potential to be a front-line starter is really just a question of the state of his shoulder.”
or OCT 22 velocities
Tanner Scheppers tonight: 2 perfect inning. His first 10 fast ball 96, 97, 97, 97, 98, 97, 98, 96, 96, 97.
The kid can hit 98 regularly. Will probably top out at 97 in a full game when he is having to go 6 or 7 innings and has to deal with fatigue.
Irregardless, the kid has some serious gas
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Oct 30, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah.... emphasized version of regardless
adverb, nonstandard
having or showing no regard; heedless; unmindful (often fol. by of).
Usage note:
Irregardless is considered nonstandard because of the two negative elements ir- and -less. It was probably formed on the analogy of such words as irrespective, irrelevant, and irreparable. Those who use it, including on occasion educated speakers, may do so from a desire to add emphasis. Irregardless first appeared in the early 20th century and was perhaps popularized by its use in a comic radio program of the 1930s.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Nov 2, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
No, it is not just an “emphasized” regardless. Note the “nonstandard” in your quote. Other examples of nonstandard english: double negative, possessive “me” (“Give back me whiskey!”), is-leveling (“They is good people”), etc.
I do like, however, that you went to dictionary.com and grabbed the definition of “regardless” and then tacked on the usage note from “irregardless,” making it seem that the dictionary treated it as a non-derivative word.
The usage note does not mean emphasis is the correct usage. It is merely explain the way in which it is mistakenly used.
Plenty of people misuse the word; I’m sure I have done so on accident. There is no shame it in, though there is a bit in using prestidigitation in place of merely admitting your error.
by aCone419 on Nov 2, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 2, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, but it still means he can throw 98MPH. I don’t think Mike Minor could go out there and dial it up to 98 in a 1 inning stint.
by yondaime4 on Nov 1, 2009 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Love the inclusion of Allen as an HM
He’s the type of high upside arm that could really break out next year.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 28, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I saw him pitch.
he is very impressive… he was in the 90-100 range until i started compiling all the 09 draftees who deserve to be mentioned
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You just put Kyle Drabek right above Fernando Martinez
to get me riled, didn’t you?
by TheBigStapler on Oct 28, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
those 2 are so close
i do like Drabek’s upside a tick better
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
looks pretty good
i mean, i’m only skimming, but it looks good on the surface. As for the Cubs guys, all the spots seem fair.
by toonsterwu on Oct 28, 2009 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Eh, I really don't like Vitters AT ALL.
I know he’s really young and the plate discipline might develop, but right now he wouldn’t be in my top 100 if I were so inclined to make a list because right now he’s not a great prospect. If this year he goes out and triples his walk rate Jose Reyes style, then he becomes a top 50 guy.
I realize ranking prospects has a large “What they might do” component, but sometimes people put way, way too much stock into “what they will be if they show something they’ve never before shown.” It’s like people put a guy at a certain spot because if in 3 years major holes in the player’s game are fixed, they’ll be awesome. No. Put them where they are currently, then adjust in the future if a guy can walk, you know, even 15 times over the course of a season.
by thejd44 on Oct 28, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm almost in your boat
but you have to realize that prospects work on different things/parts of their game all the time.
it’s like how Homer Bailey’s #‘s were never that impressive because he was always working on stuff… thats what the minors are for, to learn. now look at Bailey’s last 8 or 10 starts… he now belongs in MLB, and is almost a finished product.
I want Vitters to be much more patient, and I have to trust the coaches/instruction he gets from here on will let him know that. As it stands, he’s a very talented prospect with a major flaw, he either adjusts or he doesn’t. but considering his age, you have to give him at least some benefit of the doubt. he’s a top 100 prospect for sure. I wouldn’t complain about him being anywhere from 55-80.
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair opinion
but if you subscribe to it, I think it has to be accompanied by a “why is Moustakas ranked in the 30s!” Vitters may have dropped, but I think Moustakas has dropped just as much…he’s a full year older than Vitters, and is way behind him in contact skills, though MM’s power is more developed at this point (Vitters showed a lot of improvement coming off a wrist/hand injury.)
OP, I liked your list very much in the stressing-upside aspect, this would be my main quibble (I have Moustakas/Vitters near each other in the mid-50s.) I’d bring Thomas Neal up a bit too, he had a pretty dominant full season in high A. Maybe Danny Duffy up a bit too?
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 29, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, sure, I'm not big on Moustakas either.
I was just responding to toonsterwu about how the Cubs prospects are in fair spots. I’m sure if I really went through I could nitpick a bunch of the names, but I really don’t like doing that when people put hard work into developing lists that are 95% good. I feel like I’m really undercutting the work they’ve done to just complain about every single name that I think is in a wrong spot (plus, I feel qualified to speak on individual players, but not so much when it comes to every prospect in the game).
by thejd44 on Oct 29, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
roger that
I know what you’re saying; it just seems like whenever these lists get posted, there’s always a few “Vitters too high!!” while no one notes the same arguments applies to MM as well. I’m sure they apply to other folks too, but those two seem the most natural comparison, given their neighborly status in the draft, position, etc.
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 29, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although I'm not a Cubs (or White Sox) fan, I do live in Chicago
So I pay a little more attention to Chicago prospects than those of other teams. I’m not on an anti-Vitters crusade (I actually wanted him included in the Harden deal) or anything. I just see him as the next in a long line of overhyped Cubs prospects (Patterson, Pie, etc etc etc).
by thejd44 on Oct 29, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
seems like his level of hype
is rather reasonable at this point. Pie & Patterson were both #1 org list, top 25 (or top 5 for CP) in baseball, prospects at his point, IIRC
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 30, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apples and Oranges
Do NOT put Felix Pie in the same basket as Corey Patterson. Felix has never gotten a real shot at playing time, even this year. Corey was given over 1800 PA by the time he was 24. Felix only has 500. If you’re truly from Chicago, then you know how Pie got jerked around by Pinella. BTW, I’d love to see this “long line of overhyped Cubs prospects”. That is such a strawman argument and I doubt very much it’s longer than any random team X’s list of failed prospects.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Oct 30, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weren't you the one who said this to me before
And then promptly ignored my list of a handful of guys from the past few years?
First, Pie counts. He counts because he’s shown massive flaws in his swing that are exposed at the highest level. The same goes for Eric Patterson, who despite his fluky September with Oakland, also doesn’t really appear to be a major-league quality hitter despite the hype.
Samardzija, Colvin, Gallagher (who I like, but am starting to wonder about), Veal, Ryan Harvey. Hell, look at the ENTIRE TOP 10 from BA’s 2007 list. Sure, you can find top 10 failures for every team, every year, but I remember hearing so much about all those guys (except Huseby). None of them have shown any ability to even be average at the major league level. How about Rich Hill? How about Ronny Cedeno or Brian Dopirak? Geez this list could go on and on and on. Not everybody I listed is necessarily a 100% bust, but all of these guys get hype like they’re going to be perennial all-stars, at least in Chicago, and the vast majority of them are huge, giant, massive baseball failures.
by thejd44 on Oct 31, 2009 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's a little early
to put the entire 07 list in the bust category. Harvey yes, Samardzija and Colvin not so much. and I think there are plenty of other teams with more depressing records of success (or lack thereof)
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 31, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Enlighten Me
What are Pie’s holes? He got the most ABs this year and ,not surprisingly, had his best year offensively.
I think it’s incredibly laughable to close the book on just about any prospect from the 2007 prospect handbook. Gee, people from Chicago like their hometown teams’ prospects? Will wonders never cease. That never happens anywhere else, right? Nobody in Oakland never got excited about someone like Travis Buck, correct? Yankee fans don’t hyperventilate over every GCL all-star, really?
There have been very few Cubs’ prospects that were hyped all over. And if you really wanted to play this game, they can’t compare to the depth and breadth of “failed” Oakland hype monsters.
Let’s go through your list of “failures”. Samardzija was a raw college pitcher who still is a raw college pitcher with 62 IP in the majors. He’s but 24 years old. Hill had a great year and was league average in two others before losing it. EPatt is only 26 and just 260 PA at the major league level. I can’t ever remember him getting much hype nationally. He’s also had two consecutive pretty good seasons in AAA. He hasn’t had much of a chance to fail in the majors yet. Tyler Colvin is 24 and just had a good year in AA. He was a top 20 prospect in the country, right? Hmm, unless my memory is faulty, no, that wasn’t the case either. Donald Veal is a lefty who can throw 96 MPH but has little to no control. His prospect status was predicated on him developing some modicum of control. No other prospect in the world was ever given that latitude, right? Oh yeah, he’s 25 and should be put out to pasture, right? No prospect ever does anything good when they hit that ripe old age, right? He was never a top 50 prospect either. Ryan Harvey was a top 5 pick and had slugged 24 home runs in a difficult hitting environment at Low A. While he was highly regarded, most if not all, prospect mavens noted his high strikeout totals and said they could become a problem at higher levels. Well, they proved to be right so far. And yet, he’s still only 25 and has plenty of time to turn things around. Kinda like Brian Dopirak did this year. He crushed the ball at the highest levels this year and is still only 26 years old. His walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is about the same even at the higher levels. Is it really out of the realm of possibility that he won’t become an above average player?
I also love how you completely disregard the successes from that 2007 top 30 to support your argument. There was a ROY at #17, Jake Fox came in at #24 and proved that he can be an above average hitter in the majors and finally sneaking in at #30 is Mike Fontenot who had a great year last year then slumped along with most everyone else this year. Which year is the real Fontenot? I don’t know.
I’m sure if I was a Cubs’ fan living in Oakland, I’d probably have the same perceptions of A’s prospects as you do of Cubs’ youngsters. Your view is no doubt clouded by the meathead Cubs fans you hear on the radio and talk to in sports bars here in the Windy City.
Now let’s take a looky at the A’s top 10 from 2007. Travis Buck is just as much a bust as any of the Cubs players you mention. Barton had a .675 OPS in his only healthy year in the majors. Suzuki is barely an average hitter and throws out under 1/3 basestealers. His walk rate is going down every year too. Sulentic had a bad year in AA. Jermaine Mitchell slugged 3 HR in the Cal league. Javier Herrera had 2 ABs this year and had a bad year in AA last year. Jason Windsor didn’t even pitch this year and had a FIP of 6.22 at AA the previous year. Marcus McBeth is 12th man on the pitching staff guy with a high walk rate. Justin Sellers is now with the Dodgers and has spent the last two years in AA and has 8 HR in almost 1000 PA at that level. His SLG is barely above his OBA and he doesn’t steal many bases. Finally at #10 comes the only player who could be considered a good player, Trevor Cahill. He’ll need to cut down on the walks & homers and raise his K rate though.
The much maligned farm system of the Cubs has been preductive. Soto, Fontenot, Theriot, Fuld, Fox, Guzman, Zambrano, Wells, Marmol, Marshall, Stevens, Patton & Samardzija all contributed to the team this year. Plus they used some of the prospects to trade for DLee, ARam, Gorzelanny, Gregg, Harden and Grabow too. That’s the other way a team benefits from their minor league system.
Well, all that said, I already knew you were a Cub hater but I was bored and needed something to do to pass the time between trick or treaters. It’s been a while since the last one so I’m out of here.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Oct 31, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You seem to be moulding the facts to suit your opinion here
You massively underrate Suzuki here. A barely league average hitter at catcher is immensely valuable, especially when coupled with his excellent defensive skills. In fact fangraphs rate his 2009 season as being worth $12.7m with out even considering his defensive performance, so to dismiss him so casually is ridiculous.
Barton has a OPS+ of 103 in nearly 800 major league plate appearances, along with improved defense and will only turn 25 next August. Buck has also been royally screwed around by A’s management but he still has an OPS+ of 108 in over 600 plate appearances. Matt Sulentic held his own as a 21 year old in AA this season. So despite the fact that you picked an A’s top ten list from a year where their system was rated among the worst in the league, they have still managed to get a relatively strong return from it.
by DeJay on Nov 3, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Too aggressive
On Christian Bethancourt but otherwise nice list.
by Jay212033 on Oct 28, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hosmer at 92?
Great list, but I think you’re being too knee-jerk on him. He’d be in my top 50. Also, I would swap Montero and Smoak.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Oct 28, 2009 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he hit like a blind boy this year
very troubling…. but i do still have faith obviously…. you don’t see lars anderson do you? [guy i don’t have faith in]
i think i placed smoak accurately… he really didn’t impress me with his numbers this year. he’d better be hella good defensively
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak was rushed to AA
If he doesn’t hit above 300 next season, and debut in Arlington next year, I’ll eat my hat.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Oct 28, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
its mostly his ISOP that was disappointing
I was expecting much more, especially from a 1B that was being called the next Chipper/Teixeira.
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His oblique injury had a big part in that
but he also had some problem with breaking balls. I don’t think he will hit for as much power as Tex but he’ll still be really good.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 28, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, the injury is what kept him in the top 15
otherwise he’d be closer to where I placed Freeman
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak
is better than Freeman I think, at least at this stage. He showed a lot of power in the World Games.
by wobatus on Oct 28, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the World Games
competition is extremely weak, i would take the numbers he put up with the world team with a large grain of salt
by PHGold09 on Oct 29, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
understood
and I almost typed that, but he didn’t just hit 1-2 homers. He hit 9, more than anyone else in the games. Ever. Although Alvarez had a 3 homer game, too, so it was a kinda easy I guess.
by wobatus on Oct 29, 2009 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think
smoak handled AA pretty well, he might have been rushed to AAA though
by miraclemets on Oct 28, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Dominguez
Based on your description of how you rank prospects, I’m not srue how Dominguez falls off this list. He has good upside and he’s a pretty good prospect now. Obviously you have a reason, and I’m curious to hear it.
by thudean on Oct 28, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the bat
I don’t believe in it.
his BB% increased a bit… and his ISOP isn’t terrible… that’s about all the good that can come out of 09 for him.
his BB% did increase even more in AA, but SSS still hasn’t convinced me.
he just kind of got passed up by guys I’d rather have
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good List
I only have a few minor quibbles:
-Desme seems very high to me. I’m just not ready to buy him being more than a fringe top 100 guy.
-I want to see Scheppers hold up over the course of a season before I put him in a top 100 list.
-I’m still a pretty big Dominguez fan, and while most see this season as a disappointment, I like his increased plate discipline and decent power for the FSL.
-Sano, I’m not at all a fan of ranking IFAs that high.
The rest looks good though.
by jar75 on Oct 28, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Desme has become the most overrated prospect in baseball.
I’m with you on Sano, too.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really have no clue what to do with Desme.
Thought about it a lot. At this point, I would not be shocked to see him become a bust, nor would I be shocked to see him become a star…
IMO, we just don’t have enough info yet. We should all just put a huge asterisk next to his name.
by alskor on Oct 28, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
watch his draft video again
and tell me you don’t see at least a future MLB player… he will be given a shot… wouldn’t be surprised if he had a Jay Bruce 09 year to start…
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, in his draft video he's facing Brian Matusz.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is it, right here.
The A’s homer in me looks at all the good things he does, considers his age not a huge factor since he missed two full seasons, and doesn’t mind the strike outs. But the realist in me sees how the strikeouts can be a huge problem (I wish I could find out WHY he strikes out. Some guys seem able to K 100+ times at every level and never really get worse. For others, huge K numbers are the sign he won’t go far. Anybody got a reason why?).
The reason I like Desme is that he’s one of those high ceiling guys, but he IS producing. Yeah, he’s got flaws. And those might be fatal flaws. But it’s not like he’s all projectable upside without any production. It’s just a matter of if he can sustain that production. Like you, I really have no idea yet.
by thejd44 on Oct 29, 2009 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark Reynolds
Seems pretty comparable to me …
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Oct 30, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Preparing myself...
for five years of mind-numbing prospect comps to Mark Reynolds.
He’s the new Ryan Howard!
by PissedMick on Nov 5, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sano was kind of a joke at #111
/ a nod to tools
Scheppers is one of the best arms out there… i had him fringe 100 but he kept moving up with each report out of the AFL.
Desme is another Wil Myers to me… watched his draft video, he looks like an MLBer to me… and I’d have to say his ceiling is Top-15 material, so I think I’ve rated him appropriately for risk and SOs.
seriously tho with his power/frame/tools and projectable body/movements, he’d be Top 20 for me, right near F-Mart were it not for his injuries and question-marks
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Myers is much better than Desme IMO
I see Myers hitting for a much higher average, hitting for more power, and playing catcher, while Desme will probably be a corner outfielder in the long run.
Also, Desme’s ARL is awful, and all he’s done is hit well in low-A and the Cally League.
Desme’s swing mechanics aren’t exactly pretty, either.
But then again, Myers’ aren’t flawless.
It’s weird to think that Myers is 5 years younger.
I bet Desme couldn’t hit the side of a barn at 18.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Myers is SSS though, and in rookie league
i tried to temper my expectations… i think i put him about as high as he should go
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I feel ya, but that .426 avg means the dude can flat-out poke.
Here’s come the inevitable post where someone goes “But liek bro…check out his BABIP. It’s profoundly inflated.”
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you don't
hit 40 homers in 140 games or son in Midwest league, high A (ok, Cal League, but Stockton), and AFL (AA or more type pitching if hitters’ parks) without some upside.
by wobatus on Oct 28, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bumgarner at 31?
seems a tad pessimistic. Did he drop so far because of his drop in velocity? The Giants have reported that he was just tired. You can’t argue with the good results at AA and I’m not sure he did(n’t) do enough to warrant a drop that far out of the top 6-10 (where he was last year). Also, BA still ranked him the #2 prospect in the Eastern League.
by lions1 on Oct 28, 2009 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i am a bit pessimistic on him
i like his pitchability. worried about the velo and “stuff”
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some people have him in the 40-50 range
His pitchability and command are really nice, but the stuff is sorely lacking.
Hopefully, he can bring the fastball back into the 93-94 range.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But mah boi Mike at PP.
The man knows his shit, too.
I have him in the 40s, as well, but I think I’m too harsh on the young man.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Desme: who the hell knows lol
07 he was the triple crown winner in the Big West conference and a potential 1st rd pick. Had a wrist and forearm injury dropping his stock. As a result couldnt play in 07 after signing. Shoulder and hamstring injury in 08. Now in 09 hits 40 hr combined during the season/AFL. Wherever he’s ranked its a huge improvement over the draft bust he was about 8 months ago
“It’s hard to believe,” marveled Lieppman. "Those are, like, jaw-dropping numbers. … For a guy in his first full year of playing pro ball, with no experience really at all, it’s pretty amazing what he’s done.
“Unbelievable, actually.”
Desme has impressed on defense, too. He has an above-average arm, and his speed — Lieppman said he’s the third-fastest player in the organization, timed at 6.62 seconds in the 60-yard dash — allows him to get to balls many other outfielders can only watch fall into gaps.
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 28, 2009 7:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Desme is even higher on this list than AN had him in their list.
I am as impressed as anybody else with what Desme did this year, and these absurd numbers that he’s been putting up in the AFL, but I’m taking it with a grain of salt. I’ve always given him Chris Young comparisons, but I just don’t know anymore.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
by NateHST on Oct 28, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Desme reminds me of Josh Hamilton
the way he’s done all this in 09 while missing so much time to injury.
and the speed… i mean, damn. if he cuts down on the SO% next year while playing in AA/AAA then he could really take off. like, Stanton-take-off [minus the ARL].
but if he’s healthy next year I believe he’s starting in the Oakland OF opening day 2011.
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please never utter 'Grant Desme' and 'Josh Hamilton' in the same sentence ever again.
I like your insights, man, but Desme wouldn’t be able to carry Hambone’s jock.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hamilton's one of my favorites
the reason I got into prospects, etc… I’m only comparing Desme’s ability to seemingly not miss a beat while missing significant time.
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotcha.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Hambone"
Is so overrated as a player now. He has had one productive season playing over 90 games.
Yes, he has amazing tools and his story is fascinating.
As an A’s fan, I hope Desme’s career does not mirror that of “Hambone” in terms of MLB production.
by bl on Oct 30, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good list, but I wouldn't have expected any less
For a list that goes a little against my personal philosophy(I’m more conservative and not nearly as upside oriented), there is so much to like about it. The top 14 is dead on in my opinion, I like the placements of Matt Moore, Decker, Rondon and Frazier in the top 50. The next 50 has some guys that I think belong higher up the list but because of the nature of the list I get why you have them where they are(Saunders, Reddick, Darnell, Arrieta). Six out of the last 11 are guys I really like(Borchering, Ramos, Erbe, D’Arnaud, Font, Pimentel) and would probably have in my top 100 safely I think, although I haven’t sat down yet to do a full list. Of the HM list, I’d have Cardenas, Dominguez, and maybe Kalish in my top 100.
Of course there are guys I feel are too high because they’re ranked so much on upside vs. tangible results, but that’s mostly just to different approaches to this process and personal preference in ceiling vs. floor.
Good work as usual and thanks for sharing it with us.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Oct 28, 2009 7:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
DESME HIT TWO MORE BOMBS TODAY (10 HR)
NInentdo Desme hit two more homeruns again today.
by JoeyO on Oct 28, 2009 8:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Man is a machine this year.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
by Syphon on Oct 28, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really like your list
nice job.
I’d personally have Feliz above Matusz, but I see the case for either. Also, would have Jennings ahead of Dom Brown at this point. Would probably put Alvarez and Smoak 11 & 12, but again splitting hairs.
Overall, not many objections.
by MightyMoose on Oct 28, 2009 10:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks
both cases are interesting, because both are so close that it came down to liking what I saw…
in Jennings’ case, it was at the Futures game, and I just don’t see his swing ever generating too much power at the MLB level… I think they will be real close in most areas, but Brown’s advantage in the power game is what gives him the nod.
as for Feliz/Matusz, I had Feliz above him until I went through all of their video in mlb… I really like Matusz’s motion and the fact that I won’t have to worry about whether he’ll be starting or relieving next year
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting.
I think that, in general, the top 25 guys are fairly well set in most lists. It’s the stuff after that where yours differs from the others I’ve seen. I’m generally okay with doing things this way. It seems that the farther you get away from the cream of the crop, the more likely you’re going to find a wide variance in placement. I mean, the #1 prospect shouldn’t vary very far from the #1 spot. The #5 could vary from 5 to 9. But someone ranked 30th? Who the fuck cares if he’s 30 or 50? By that point, you have a lot of good players with potential, who have some question marks or something that prevent them from being elite. What does it matter where they go?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 28, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
is this you're first year following prospects?
cause this is the case year in and year out
by PHGold09 on Oct 29, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It isn't.
And I am aware of this. Guess what? Every year it’s still stupid.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 29, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
that’s why i’m a proponent of having a list that is slotted in tiers…
Tier 1 – Perennial All-stars
Tier 2 – Occasional All-star
Tier 3 – Solid Regular
Tier 4 – Utility type/journey man
by separating the gaps it makes for better evaluation
by PHGold09 on Oct 29, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think rhd's list had the right idea, though he was guessing on what BA would do.
Create a variance. It’s okay to say “soandso” player is in the 15 to 25 range..
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 29, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i did this.
just didn’t type it out.
but I had definite tiers when doing my list.
the only ones that are tough are injured guys because they break through the tiers depending on their health/reports. [Parker/Scheppers, etc]
by daveh33 on Oct 29, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What might be a good way to rank them
Is to not number each individual player. If 25-30 are all basically equal in your eyes, write “25-30” and just list the players alphabetically or something.
by thejd44 on Oct 29, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really what needs to happen is people need to stop quibbling so much over #25-#30 and realize they're essentially dead even...
by alskor on Oct 29, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is the case sometimes.
…hmm, maybe i can do some sort of color specification and how the colors relate can kind of indicate more relationship than groups of numbers.
lol.
Heyward is green.
westmoreland is yellow, and smoak is blue, together the strengths of west and smoak = heyward…
that could be fun, but it would take a while to develop a system. haha
by daveh33 on Oct 29, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah, this is basically what I mean.
People see one guy at 25 and one guy at 30 and that appears to be a huge separation…
That’s why I like how Sickels gives the letter grades along with ranking (and stresses that grades are more important).
by thejd44 on Oct 31, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perennial All-stars, yeah, okay, haha
Tell that to Joel Guzman, Andy Marte, Greg Miller, Jesse Foppert, Jason Stokes, Sean Burroughs, Wilson Betemit, Drew Henson, Joe Borchard, Ryan Anderson, Dennis Tankersley, and Ruben Mateo.
All of those aforesaid guys would have been ‘Tier 1’ according to you, but yet not a single one of those players managed to be anything more than a journey man.
You just can’t project like that, sport.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 29, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
first of all don't call me sport, bud
second of all… the guys who would fall into perennial all-stars this year would be between 2-5… the guys with little projection left, no major holes in their game that predicate them making some big jump to becoming all-stars (i’m looking at you stanton)
now i admit i’ve only been following minors for the past 2-3 seasons so a bunch of those guys i know flamed out, but i never got to hear the hype on them, but i feel like with pitch f/x and with the amount of money spent on scouting and development now, we’re better at prospecting than we were even 5 years ago….
and looking at some of those guys’ numbers, it seems like some of the peripherals are missing from the baseline stats that we today are more well versed at looking at…
by PHGold09 on Oct 29, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if youve only been paying attention for 2 years...
how can you say you think “we’re better at prospecting than we were even 5 years ago?”
No matter how close the data gets, there is still going to be huge misses. Its the ‘real life’ factor. This isn’t homework for math class.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
by e-gus on Nov 3, 2009 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
because there are records from 5 years ago
its not like the top 100 lists from 2004 disappear….
it seems like the top lists from 2000 were less productive than the subesquent years, and i would venture to guess that these will be better than the ones from 2004 and i assume we will continue to get better at what makes a good baseball player
will we ever be 100% certain??? no but, ive got a feeling not only will we get better at getting the 100 best players on the list but we’ll do better at putting them in the proper order
by PHGold09 on Nov 3, 2009 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my thoughts
You draft a prospect in a fantasy league because you think highly of them…then if they perform ok a guy tends to overrate them because they have a little pride in their pick and have been following them closer than other prospects.. Jordan Lyles + Weglarz to name 2.
Overall though very nice list I like the rankings of Starlin Castro. Oh and if you think that highly of FMart you may need to make me a trade offer for him.
by JJACK on Oct 28, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
haha
it happens to the best of us… I really don’t think I’ve over-rated Lyles or Weglarz though… Lyles ar age 18 in full season ball, with the stuff he’s reported as having, should be top 25 imo.
I do think I over-rated Tim Beckham on my mid-season list… I’ve definitely knocked him back about 20 spots to a more appropriate place.
i’m nowhere near dewey and his irrational love for thole though. ;-)
…
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
forgot the rest, hence the ...
haha. regarding F-mart…. I love his compact lefty swing and his ~.250 ISO in the inter league.
I would make you an offer if i didn’t have Jennings and D Brown
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lyles is amazing.
Point.Blank.Period.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 29, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised Jon Niese isn't on here.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 28, 2009 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
kind of missed him
Brandon Allen and Jose Iglesias. I think thats all…
i admittedly don’t know much about Niese or Iglesias. does either deserve top 100 on a list like mine?
Allen wouldn’t have been top 85 i don’t think… but maybe 85-95. or HM at least. I do think he’ll hit for power
by daveh33 on Oct 29, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iglesias should be a top 100 guy IMO...
…can supposedly play above-average MLB defense at SS right now at the tender age of 19.
Plus, the bat doesn’t look so bad……..http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/10/19/iglesias-video/
You can see why Theo shelled out $8.2 million to this teenager.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 29, 2009 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As matter of fact, I REALLY LOVE that swing.
It completely caters to what I presume to be a line drive//gap-to-gap approach.
Looks like if all goes right, Iglesias can become a gold-glove .300 hitting shortstop with 40-50 doubles a year.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 29, 2009 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh mang
that bat is quick. reminds me of manny a bit. i think its his should position. thanks for the link
by daveh33 on Oct 29, 2009 6:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*should=shoulder
that and the way his bat travels through the zone. looks good
by daveh33 on Oct 29, 2009 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont know if I buy the bat
and I havent heard anyone think he can be a .300 hitter… but he’s supposed to be phenomenal defensively. In fact, word is they think he could be one of the best defensive SSs in baseball right now (not just above average). He looks really good.
by alskor on Oct 29, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well this is the story of a man named 'Jed.'
sounds like a familiar tune I’ve heard about a Boston short stop before…
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
by e-gus on Nov 3, 2009 2:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
Very different players. Lowrie’s defense at SS was a big question mark (he ended up impressing at the MLB level though). Iglesias is a potential gold glover. Lowrie was a patient hitter with an advanced approach who had some injury problems (shockingly, this has kept him from major league success). Iglesias hasnt played pro ball yet and his bat is a big question mark.
Lowrie did look really good – and his skillset IS pretty good still. The problem with Lowrie is health. He’s had wrist injuries end his season in consecutive years. He’s looked pretty damn good when healthy – just like in the minors.
by alskor on Nov 3, 2009 2:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry
i meant the thread in general.
I guess I should have replied here:
As matter of fact, I REALLY LOVE that swing.
It completely caters to what I presume to be a line drive//gap-to-gap approach.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
by e-gus on Nov 4, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
how did I screw that up.
anyway, my main point is that there always seems to be more hype for the boys on the Boston farm, NYY farm, etc.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
by e-gus on Nov 4, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Niese has already had success in the majors.
He had a league average tRA in a handful of MLB starts, and his tRA in AAA was 3.95. Here are some links about his development this season, namely his addition of two new fastballs (he now has a 2-seam, a 4-seam, and a cut, as well as his plus curve and his changeup)
http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2009/05/13/jon-niese-by-pitchfx/
http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2009/07/10/a-better-pitch-fx-look-at-niese-and-fastballs/
http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2009/07/27/the-development-of-jon-niese-and-his-new-weapon-the-cutter/
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's got a kyute nose.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 29, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I call him "the shark"
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 2, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great list.
Excelent job dave. Not much I would argue with. Looks like you put in some serious time and research. Love reading well put together posts such as this 1. Keep it up bud.
by cubsfan1 on Oct 29, 2009 7:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Best list so far this year
although Michael Saunders is too low for me. Plus some of your HM should be top 100 (like Cardenas, Holt, Gillies, Thole and Castro) Top 16 are probably perfect.
by LCT on Oct 29, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Strausburg
needs to be above no.1. Did you know he is going to win one Cy young and 11 Stephen Strausburgs? haha
I like the list. Think Feliz and Matusz should be switched but that is the Ranger homerism in me.
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Oct 29, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
*rimshot*
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Oct 30, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't be ridiculous
He is going to win one Cy Young and 10 Tim Lincecums.
by tdot mariner fan on Oct 31, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cardenas/cunningham
i think both seem to have declined or beeen overlooked, despite solid seasons
cardenas 2nd stint in AAA showed improvement, cunningham IMO did nothing to diminish his status, he did rank #55 by BA preseason, so at worst he might be a backend top 100 type if eligible
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 29, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
cunningham
lost his eligibility. He’s got Desme and Brown right behind him. Buck. Maybe Doolittle in outfield if Barton or Carter for first. I don’t know all that much about who plays what or how well they field, but seems like they have a logjam of youngsters along with Cust, Davis, Sweeney, Hairston. Sweeney is supposedly a really good fielder and he at least picked it up somewhat with the bat later in the year.
by wobatus on Oct 29, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd bet everything I own on Cunningham being a far better major leaguer than Corey Brown
Actually, there’s not a guy in the A’s organization right now who I think definitely has a brighter future ahead of him than Cunningham. I don’t understand why other guys get chance after chance and Cunningham and Buck don’t. Maybe Geren hates guys with curly blonde hair.
by thejd44 on Oct 29, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cunningham
All I can say is that as a fantasy owner of him this year, i felt like slapping myself every time I saw his statlines.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
by cwhitman412 on Oct 29, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
me too
I had him. Still do. And I like him. Maybe due to the concussion, I don’t know, but his AAA line was pretty good but not as good as his prior minor league seasons. He wasn’t walking enough. Will he have enough power for a corner? And thejd44, I am not ssaying brown is better, just that he is right behind him, should start next year in AAA.
by wobatus on Oct 29, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, when a guy is in AAA far longer than he should be
I don’t think stagnating numbers are anything more than simply being kinda bored. I don’t think that’s really a work ethic issue, either. If I took some high school class I got an A in 10 years ago, there’s a good chance I’d do a little bit worse now because I basically know all the information and I wouldn’t put as much effort into it.
The A’s really need to make Hairston go away so Cunningham can play left field everyday in 2010.
by thejd44 on Oct 29, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best list I've seen
Thanks for putting this out there.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Oct 29, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yankees
Personally I feel Montero is low, but w/e with the top 5.
A-Jax is probably top 50 no matter how down on him you are.
ManBan is WAY too high. late 80s is optimistic.
Arodys is just a tad low. I have him inside 100.
I have Romine really high on mine. I love that guy. #3 prospect in the system. Around 80. That may be crazy, but he is real good.
I have Z-Mac in the top 100 (Peer Pressure from yankee fans). I really am considering removing him, but glad to see that he at least gets an HM on this one. I think he may fall though for next year.
by sjkqw on Oct 29, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
interesting
what about ManBan makes him too high on my list?
he’s 18, pitched in the SAL for the full season, good peripherals, K% etc…
i think of him as a less-hyped Martin Perez, with not-as-good pure stuff obviously… but i do wonder why ManBan seems to get overlooked a lot.
by daveh33 on Oct 29, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ManBan
Maybe I just hear his name a lot from fellow Yankee fans, but I think I hear him mentioned too much.
by sjkqw on Oct 30, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait what?
so how does that make him too high on my list?
by daveh33 on Oct 30, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see why A Jax has to be top 50.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 30, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heck
I’m not really in love with him as a top 100 in all honesty, though I think he probably should be on it on account of level. Hard to buy him as much as before, at least for me, due to that BABIP.
by toonsterwu on Oct 30, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think with his reported defense, his floor is pretty decent
and he is still young.
by daveh33 on Oct 30, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Last year he was strongly overrated… I think its going a little far in the other direction. I don’t really buy his bat, but his defense is good and he’s a pretty sure thing to say in CF. I mean… the bat isn’t that bad…
by alskor on Oct 30, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Ajax at worst is a solid 4th OF type?
Thats if the bat doesnt progress as much
I seem to recall many skeptics about melky and gardner and they exceeded expectations
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 31, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They did?
At or near replacement level bats. Melky has averageish defense. Gardner is the better defender.
What was your expectation? Nothing? I’m fairly sure Melky was a highly thought of prospect who got pulled into the majors way way early. Gardner I’m not sure on, but he’s your typical defensive scrub.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 31, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gardner
Is your typical 2.1 WAR in only 284 plate appearances scrub. The only CFer in the AL East with a higher RAR than Gardner was Upton, in twice the number of PAs.
If he carries a .350 OBP and plays the same defense he played this year, that’s a solid/good major league regular.
by jibs on Oct 31, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not convinced his bat will hold up to keep him around 2 WAR.
Major league pitchers figure out fairly quickly that when someone has no power, they can just throw it down the middle of the plate and get you out. People thought Reggie Willits would hold up with the same skill set. He didn’t.
Gardner is showing to be a good defensive center fielder, but that’s it.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 1, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Willits
Decent enough comp since they do have similar overall skillsets, but his “breakout” season was fueled by a very high BABIP, whereas Gardner’s this season looks very sustainable. Also Willits’ career UZR numbers have him pretty average (-4.8 per 150 in 1500+ OF innings), and his career SB/CS ratio is not nearly as good as Gardner’s to date.
I honestly don’t see that much difference between Gardner and Ellsbury, offensively (nearly identical BB/K ratio, GB/FB ratio, OBP and Iso this season), yet I don’t think Ellsbury would be dismissed as a “defensive scrub” (if he actually played good defense).
by jibs on Nov 1, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not really talking about Ellsbury.
And never intended to. Now that we’re past the disclaimer, I think Ellsbury’s a better hitter than Gardner, though the difference over a full season is only about 10 runs. I really don’t think Gardner going to get better than he is and Ellsbury is probably overrated (/ducks!).
About Ellsbury’s defense, though, we’re going to need at least a third full season before we can judge. That’s just one heck of a variance from 2008 to 2009 to be of any use to us. Gardner’s is too small as well.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 2, 2009 3:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That 2.1, and his whole career to date actually,
Is based entirely on a single year’s worth (less than that actually) of UZR data, which should obviously be taken with a huge grain of salt. His hitting is barely over replacement level, and for his career it his offense has been worth -3 RAR. If Gardner is indeed a +20-30 defensive center fielder, as his stats over his half year of playing time in CF would imply, then he will obviously be a valuable commodity. But we don’t have near enough evidence to conclude that.
For instance, last year Ellsbury was at +16 UZR, and this year he fell to -16. Single year, and especially partial year, UZR is not all that informative.
by aCone419 on Nov 2, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also on Gardner
He was used is a pretty strict platoon role, with the vast majority of his ABs coming against LHPs. He’s not a good hitter, he’s a very limited hitter and the vast majority of his value comes from playing great defense. If the Red Sox got on the phone and offered Ellsbury for Gardner Brian Cashman wouldnt even let Theo finish the sentence before he accepted and faxed the paperwork over.
by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“He was used IN a pretty strict platoon role”
by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
whatever
Both Gardner and Ellsbury are 4th OFs or second divison starting CFers. At least the Yankees are employing their version in proper role.
by jibs on Nov 2, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's not correct
Ellsbury is clearly a more valuable offensive player. The difference is in the defense, an area where we don’t have conclusive data. If Ellsbury ends up being even an average defender in CF, that would make him a 3.5-4.0 WAR player.
by aCone419 on Nov 2, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I should clarify
If he maintains his 2009 production, AND plays average defense, that would make him a 3.5-4.0 WAR player.
by aCone419 on Nov 2, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not whatever
Ellsbury is a far better player than Gardner.
by alskor on Nov 2, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
UZR is quite informative.
It tells us what soandso player’s UZR is for a single season. I know a lot of Chowds are hating on UZR because it took Ellsbury through the ringer on his range, but that doesn’t invalidate the entire thing.
Here’s the problem, though. Defensive analysis just requires a larger sample to work with. Whether it’s plus / minus, UZR, PMR, or whatever, it’s best to take at least a three full years worth of data to analyze someone’s defense. Until then, go by scouting data. If scouting data says he’s a good defensive center fielder, go with that until you know for sure. Extrapolate “good” as a range of +5 to +15, or however you want to vary it, runs per year, and guestimate.
It works better that way anyhow. Otherwise you’re sitting here in limbo wondering if Ellsbury is really really good or really really bad in center. Better to just go with your gut for now.
And, yes, Ellsbury will out hit Gardner.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 2, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BTW, this was more of a general support post
Not really criticizing your points.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 2, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with you on Jackson
I barely think he’s in the top 100. No power, strikes out way to much, doesn’t walk at all, and all his value offensively came from an inflated average (.300) due to a ridiculous BABIP (.390). And I know scouts like his defense, but Minor League Splits’ TotalZone had him -13 last year and 0 defense. Obviously minor league defensive stats have even more questions than major league stats, but I felt it was worth noting.
Montero is about right, he doesn’t play a position, that takes value away from him.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 1, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on AJax.
Montero’s bat is monstrous, though. But you can’t complain about Top 5.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 1, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he had any chance to stick at catcher and be competent
he’d probably be number 1 overall. Number 5 is a fine for him, his bat is great.
Ever wish they signed Fransisco because Tony Pena was on their coaching staff and left Montero for us to sign? That would’ve been awesome.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 1, 2009 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah if i thought he had even a bit of a chance of sticking at C
he would be top 3.
as it stands, I’ll take Posey’s bat at the C spot. and I’ll take the massive upside of Stanton just a hair over Montero
by daveh33 on Nov 1, 2009 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
im beeing a greedy o's fan but...
i think matusz should be at least top 5. skips AAA and is thrown into the lions den facing stacked al east lineups. dominated yanks in his last start before he was shut down. headed to arizona for the performance institute thing so he will be even stronger next year.
by davetrembling on Oct 29, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kimbrel or Hoover
Wondering why no mention of these two. Especially Kimbrel considering how much he dominated in multiple leagues.
by Braves1983 on Oct 31, 2009 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
looking at his stats
only a 60 inning sample size, dominated everywhere, but what happened in high Astruggled in 24 innings. 45BB in 60 innings cant be good no matter what the dominating stuff
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 31, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kimbrel
Started the year at High A, had some problems in about 3 games where he got lit up. Got sent down to Low A, dominated, sent to High A, dominated, then to Double A and did well. He has control problems for sure but with his stuff he just needs to be effectively wild to succeed.
by Braves1983 on Oct 31, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's a reliever
relievers have to be amazing to be on a top 100 list imo.
Kimbrel’s longest stop was at the high-A Carolina league, and he walked 22.8% of the batters he faced. thats not good
by daveh33 on Oct 31, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Start of the year
His numbers at High A are extremely skewed because of how he started the year. His mechanics were all messed up so the Braves sent him to Rome and he got himself righted and after that was absolutely dominant. How many other relief pitchers have posted the high strikeout totals that Kimbrel put up?
by Braves1983 on Nov 1, 2009 8:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He had a 5.74 K/9 for Myrtle Beach in his 2nd stint with the club, and a 5.40 K/9 with Mississippi after that. His “unskewed” numbers still show a guy with massive control issues. Considering there are many talented starting pitching prospects that are not on this list, I think you’re pushing it by thinking a RP prospect with a lot of work to do before he’ll be MLB-ready should be considered here.
by jibs on Nov 1, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where are you getting his numbers from?
In Miss Kimbrel had 17K’s in 11.2 innings. That is far more then the k/9 you posted. Looking at fangraphs they have it calculated at 13.11 and Mrytle at 15.38. Kimbrel is much better then you are giving him credit for.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=paO07030&position=P
by Braves1983 on Nov 1, 2009 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are posting BB/9 aren't you?
Either way, we know that he needs to refine his control but someone with his dominant stuff, as evident with his k/9 ratio he just needs to be effectively wild to be good in the majors. Not many pitchers in the minor leagues can match his stuff out of the pen.
by Braves1983 on Nov 1, 2009 9:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's still a reliever with mediocre command
I like Kimbrel, but he shouldn’t be anywhere near a top 100 list.
by jar75 on Nov 1, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His stuff and K numbers mean nothing?
How many relief pitchers in the minors have his combination of stuff and K’s?
by Braves1983 on Nov 1, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really could make the same argument for Henry Rodriguez
But neither deserve to be near the top 100.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
by hero66 on Nov 1, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rodriguez was just recently converted to a reliever
Sample sizes are completely different so its hard to compare. But, Kimbrel has never been hit outside of his brief stink in A+ to start the year in 2009. Other then that Kimbrel has virtually been untouchable in his minor league career. I am not asking for Kimbrel to a be a top 20 prospect or anything but I find it hard to believe that a potential future closer is not a top 100 prospect.
by Braves1983 on Nov 1, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it.
As you both have said, its tough for a reliever to get that kind of consideration from the masses but everything you read about Kimbrel screams potential closer. Relief pitchers are becoming more and more valueable and eventually I think that will be freflective in the BA rankings at some point in the near future.
by Braves1983 on Nov 2, 2009 6:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how are RPs becoming more valuable?
I just haven’t seen that argument lately, and I’m curious what you specifically mean by that. Seems to me that they still contribute the same relative value to their teams that they always have.
by jibs on Nov 2, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Starting pitchers IP have gone down
Considering teams now use more relief pitchers per year, there value realistically goes up I woudl think. Who has been the MVP for hte Yankees since 96?
by Braves1983 on Nov 2, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
Ask any true Yankee fan and they will tell it has been Rivera. Yankees don’t win 4 world series without the best relief pitcher in the history of the game.
by Braves1983 on Nov 2, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh
Didn’t realize we were using the “true Yankee fan — Jerome from The Bronx you’re on with WFAN” scale of evaluating players.
Rivera, an absolute freak of nature when it comes to effectiveness and longevity at his position, has still been worth 20 wins less than Derek Jeter since 1995 according to Rally’s historical WAR calculations.
by jibs on Nov 3, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
let braves83 have his fun
its obvious i was wrong. only true yankee fans will know in their heart of hearts who they’re mvp has been this past 13 years
by daveh33 on Nov 3, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Other closers
As we watch year in and year out other teams playoff aspirations die because their closer blows a game, what do we see with Rivera? A lifetime sub 1.00 ERA in the postseason? Come on now. I can’t understand how its not clear to see that Rivera has been the MVP for the Yankees the last 15 years.
by Braves1983 on Nov 7, 2009 6:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because statistically, relievers can't hold a candle to even a perennial All-Star level shortstop in terms of productivity.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 7, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In order to prove that.
You have to prove that no other pitchers, whether Yankee or not, could have done the same thing. And / or, you have to prove that the games in which Rivera pitched would have been lost without him being in there.
You can’t do that, so the idea that Rivera is an MVP because he’s better than other closers ends up only meaning that Rivera is better than other closers.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 7, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
1996
Why didn’t the Braves win in 1996?
by Braves1983 on Nov 8, 2009 9:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you do realize Wetteland was the one who saved those games, right?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course
But I wasn’t talking about for the Yankees. The Braves closer blew the 96 world series against an inferior hitter. Also, if you don’t remember Rivera was as important, if not more than any other Yankee in 96. He was K-rod before K-rod was K-rod.
by Braves1983 on Nov 8, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No "one player" blows a World Series when the losing team wins only 2 game.
Maybe the Braves’ offense should have scored a run off of Andy Pettitte, hm?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You believe so?
So with the Braves up 6-3 in game 4 to go up 3-1, Wholers doesn’t blow the series for the Braves. Yes after its 2-2 the Braves still gave up the series but being up 3-1 with arguably the better team that year would have almost ensured hte Braves back-to-back WS Titles. Think what you want, because we aren’t going ot agree but Rivera has been the single most important player for hte Yankees the last 15 years.
by Braves1983 on Nov 9, 2009 6:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does one players' success on one team in one game of one World Series in one year...
qualify a different player for an entirely different team THE most valuable player of his team over the span of 15 years?
That’s like saying Carlos Beltran’s strikeout in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS makes Yadier Molina the best player on the Cardinals.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 9, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was using an example
It just goes to show how valueable a closer can be in the postseason. That year the Braves lost because Wholers couldn’t hold a 3 run lead. If the roles were reversed and Rivera was a Brave that year you would be talking about the Braves winning back to back championships. I could give plenty more example of the closers blowing the game in big spots.
The only times Rivera has blown up in a big game were when weakly hit balls found holes and errors were committed (Riveras error).
by Braves1983 on Nov 9, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But that's not even true!
The Braves could have easily sucked it up and went out and won two out of the next five games, right? Except they never had a lead in the 9th inning the rest of the series.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 10, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Momentum
I guess you don’t believe in that at all?
by Braves1983 on Nov 10, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If that loss, which still had the Braves leading the World Series, left their offense unable to score due to "momentum"
then their offense is at fault, too. You have no facts, only conditional opinions and what-if scenarios.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 10, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Game 4
THat was game 4 and tied the series up. It was a huge momentum killer for the Braves. They were winning 6-0 in that game and Wholers blew a 6-3 lead.
by Braves1983 on Nov 10, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read what I wrote?
It doesn’t seem like it.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 9, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I read
Nobody has come close to what Rivera has done in the postseason in the history of baseball. Why do you assume that someone else could have just stepped in and done the same or better?
by Braves1983 on Nov 9, 2009 6:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody has had the same opportunities that Rivera has had in the postseason in baseball.
It doesn’t change anything. How can you empirically prove that Rivera and Rivera alone would have resulted in all those outcomes?
By saying he’s the most important, you’re saying that no other pitcher, Yankee or otherwise, could have done what he did. You’re also implying that because Rivera was there, all those games were won instead of lost.
The burden of proof is upon you to back up your claims. The burden of proof is not on me to prove you wrong.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 9, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Burden of proof?
That is the silliest thing I have ever heard. This is a discussion board. I made a claim and you are telling me I am wrong. Now I have to prove that you telling me I am wrong is wrong? Not a chance. Just look at the numbers. Has any pitcher in postseason history done what Rivera has done? You are just oging to assume that another pitcher would have done exactly what Rivera has accomplished becaues this phantom pitcher puts on a Yankees uniform?
Not a chance. Rivera is the best relief pitcher of all time. I know you won’t agree to this unless you see a stat that clearly says it but nobody could have done what Rivera did. Who can come even close to what he has accomplished?
by Braves1983 on Nov 9, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your claim:
Yankees don’t win 4 world series without the best relief pitcher in the history of the game.
Prove it or shut up. Don’t give me this bologna about how Rivera is the best closer in the game. I know he’s the best closer in the game. Yankee World Series success is not directly, and solely, the result of Mariano Rivera being awesome. That’s where you’re going wrong.
The assertion that without Rivera the Yanks don’t win 4 WS in the last 15 years is astonishingly stupid.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 9, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously Rivera was more important than anyone else
How could the guys who actually gave the Yankees the lead in the games they won, or the guys who pitched the thousands of innings Rivera didn’t pitch, possibly matter?
by ozzman99 on Nov 9, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly what I've been trying to say.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 10, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's confusing our diminishing import of Rivera with thinking Rivera is not one of the best ever.
That’s not what we’re doing here. Rivera is going to go to the Hall of Fame as the finest closer ever to step on a mound. What I am saying is that it is impossible to know what kind of outcome those games would have if Rivera is not there. You can’t say the games wouldn’t be won. You can’t say the games wouldn’t be lost. You don’t know. It’s all speculative.
I do believe other pitchers could have done the same thing. It’s not as if closers automatically melt down in the post season. Some do. Some don’t. Rivera himself has had his troubles in the postseason. Even if one year it’s one guy, the next year it’s another guy, etc, the general same outcomes were still possible even without Rivera.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 10, 2009 2:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Name one closer
Please, name me one closer who is as consistent as Rivera. There is no way that any other guy would have done what Rivera did the last 15 years. Just look at the track records. Which closer is the most likely to have the best postseason career based on his career numbers?
by Braves1983 on Nov 10, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But that's not the point!
Jeez, man, it’s not difficult. If the Yankees didn’t have an awesome offense, Rivera would never have been in to save games in the first place.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 10, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK
If the Yankees didn’t have the best closer in the history of the game a lot of there postseason games would not have been extended and allowed the Yankees to post some dramatic comebacks.
by Braves1983 on Nov 10, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why would they be limited to one closer for 15 years?
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the Yankees aren’t shy about signing free agents and trading for big name players. If they didn’t have Rivera, what would have stopped them from acquiring guys like Hoffman, Nen, K-Rod, Isringhausen, Gagne, Foulke or whoever else they wanted over the past 15 years? And how can you say that they wouldn’t have won with those guys? Sorry, but TTIF and Squid are absolutely correct here.
by ozzman99 on Nov 10, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Braves1983, no one is disputing that Rivera is the greatest closer of all time. The question is, how valuable is that relative to what other players have contributed? Rivera pitches in what, maybe 5% of the innings his team plays? No matter how great he is, there is simply no way that what he contributes in such limited playing time outweighs what other players contribute in the other 95%. Is he valuable? Of course. Is he more valuable than the players who are out there for 19 or 20 times as much of the game? Of course not. Could other pitchers have had enough success in RIvera’s place that the Yankees could have been as successful as a team? Almost surely, yes.
by ozzman99 on Nov 10, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
If he isn’t the most valueable player for the Yankees the last 15 years then who is? Jeter? Why can’t the same argument then be made about him that the Yankees could have replaced him with someone productive. Nobody has had the postseason career that Rivera has had. Why are we assuming that someone else could have repeated it?
by Braves1983 on Nov 10, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really like Jeter...
But the difference between Jeter and an average SS is much greater than the difference between Rivera and an average closer.
Why do you want us to pick pne single player as the greatest Yankee over the past 15 years? If you’re going to force that comparison, then it has to be Jeter or Rivera because they’ve been there the longest. But really, the 2009 team is very different from the 1996 team. Why not stick with naming one MVP per year? With all the roster turnover in baseball, it seems to make the most sense.
by ozzman99 on Nov 10, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to go try this argument on a bowl of jello.
If the jello gets it before you do…
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 10, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
A guy that is strictly pitching as a reliever in the minors isn’t likely to later transition to the starting rotation so his options are somewhat limited, so to be worth a high ranking on a prospect list a reliever has to just blowing the competition away with little to no problems. Kimbrel, who I like and own in a fantasy league or two, has to sort out his control/command or something because of the walk numbers. That kind of thing will keep him off of top prospect lists because if it’s not corrected he is looking at something between setup man and middle reliever and that just doesn’t cut it.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Nov 3, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hm..
I don’t think Kimbrel should be on a top 100, but he has most certainly been “blowing the competition away.” He career stat line is one of absolute dominance. 1.98 ERA, 4.3 h/9 (!), 15.0 k/9 (!).
Think about that. He’s been three times more likely to strike a batter out than to allow a hit.
The control concerns (he still has almost a 3:1 K:BB, so we aren’t talking Jason Neighborgall here) and the inherent lack of reliever value keep him in the second tier of prospects, but the minors to date haven’t provided much of a challenge for him.
For what it is worth, Chris Perez made multiple BA top 100s as a reliever, and he walked more guys than Kimbrel.
by aCone419 on Nov 3, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well,
you left off the end of that sentence, “little to no problems”. The walk rate is a problem that has to be fixed for Kimbrel to reach his ceiling and for him to make a top prospect list. Using the Perez example, he made BA’s list at #97 in 2008, having pitched at a level or more higher than Kimbrel on average for their age 21 seasons with lower hit and walk rates(not much lower admittedly, but still) and with 2 fewer K/9. Perez landed at #91 on the 2009 list after a year in AAA where he maintained his K rate of 13+K/9 while shaving 2BB/9 off his previous year’s numbers.
Now if Kimbrel can get his walk rate down a bit more next year while maintaining the other ratios, I see him as a top 100 guy. But he has to show better command against upper level competition to do that.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Nov 3, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The point is
H-rod is also a reliever with arguably even more electrifying stuff, high K rates, and poor walk rates.
Neither should be a top 100 prospect. Like dave said, relievers have to be out of this world incredible to make a top 100 list.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
by hero66 on Nov 1, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tiers
1. Jason Heyward – OF ATL
2. Stephen Strasburg – P WAS
- [super elite]
3. Buster Posey – C SF
4. Michael Stanton – OF FLA
5. Jesus Montero – C NYY
6. Carlos Santana – C CLE
7. Domonic Brown – OF PHI
8. Desmond Jennings – OF TB
9. Brian Matusz – P BAL
10. Neftali Feliz – P TEX
- [elite]
11. Martin Perez – P TEX
12. Logan Morrison – 1B FLA
13. Pedro Alvarez – 3B PIT
14. Justin Smoak – 1B TEX
15. Christian Friedrich – P COL
16. Dustin Ackley – OF SEA
17. Kyle Drabek – P PHI
18. Fernando Martinez – OF NYM
19. Matthew Moore – P TB
20. Jordan Lyles – P HOU
21. Michael Taylor – OF PHI
22. Jenrry Mejia – P NYM
23. Lonnie Chisenhall – 3B CLE
24. Wade Davis – P TB
25. Jeremy Hellickson – P TB
- [super premium]
26. Brett Wallace – 3B OAK
27. Freddie Freeman – 1B ATL
28. Derek Norris – C WAS
29. Jaff Decker – OF SD
30. Hector Rondon – P CLE
31. Madison Bumgarner – P SF
32. Chris Carter – 1B OAK
33. Starlin Castro – SS CHC
34. Aaron Crow – P KC
35. Julio Teheran – P ATL
36. Casey Kelly – P BOS
37. Yonder Alonso – 1B CIN
38. Michael Moustakas – 3B KC
39. Tim Beckham – SS TB
40. Ryan Westmoreland – OF BOS
41. Ike Davis – 1B NYM
42. Grant Desme – OF OAK
43. Reid Brignac – SS TB
44. Tyler Matzek – P COL
- [premium]
45. Todd Frazier – 2B CIN
46. Aaron Hicks – OF MIN
47. Chris Withrow – P LAD
48. Nick Weglarz – OF CLE
49. Michael Montgomery – P KC
50. Tyler Flowers – C CHW
51. Josh Bell – 3B BAL
52. Michael Saunders – OF SEA
53. Jhoulys Chacin – P COL
54. Casey Crosby – P DET
55. Thomas Neal – 1B SF
56. Dan Hudson – P CHW
57. Tanner Scheppers – P TEX
58. Simon Castro – P SD
59. Brett Lawrie – 2B MIL
60. Jacob Turner – P DET
61. Shelby Miller – P STL
62. Jason Knapp – P CLE
63. Jake Arrieta – P BAL
64. Josh Reddick – OF BOS
- [high quality]
65. Austin Jackson – OF NYY
66. Zach Wheeler – P SF
67. Danny Duffy – P KC
68. Danny Espinosa – SS WAS
69. Devaris Gordon – SS LAD
70. Jarrod Parker – P ARI
71. Wil Myers – C KC
72. Ben Revere – OF MIN
73. Josh Vitters – 3B CHC
74. Tim Melville – P KC
75. Alex Avila – C DET
76. Zach Britton – P BAL
77. Manny Banuelos – P NYY
78. Jay Jackson – P CHC
79. Grant Green – SS OAK
80. Ethan Martin – P LAD
81. Scott Sizemore – 2B DET
82. Zach Stewart – P TOR
83. Carlos Carrasco – P CLE
84. Brad Lincoln – P PIT
85. Christian Bethancourt – C ATL
86. Hak-Ju Lee – SS CHC
87. Cody Scarpetta – P MIL
88. Jiovanni Mier – SS HOU
89. Alex White – P CLE
90. James Darnell – 3B SD
- [ high mid-grade]
91. Alex Liddi – 3B SEA
92. Eric Hosmer – 1B KC
93. Hank Conger – C LAA
94. Tony Sanchez – C PIT
95. Randall Delgado – P ATL
96. Anthony Capra – P OAK
97. Mike Trout – OF LAA
98. Alex Colome – P TB
99. Wilmer Flores – SS NYM
100. Jared Mitchell – OF CHW
101. Wilson Ramos – C MIN
102. Brett Jackson – OF CHC
103. Chase D’Arnaud – 2B PIT
104. Arodys Vizcaino – P NYY
105. Donovan Tate – OF SD
106. Bobby Borchering – 3B ARI
107. Brandon Erbe – P BAL
108. Ian Desmond – SS WAS
109. Wilmer Font – P TEX
110. Stolmy Pimentel – P BOS
* [mid-grade]
by daveh33 on Oct 31, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
doing it this way
is interesting, I think i under-rated Montgomery a bit [or over-rated Hicks, Frazier, Weglarz and Withrow]. If I could do it again, I’d put him in the ‘premium’ category right behind Matzek.
by daveh33 on Oct 31, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
No, sorry, you can’t do it again. You’re not allowed to revise your opinion. For all eternity, you must admit that that Hicks, Frazier, Weglarz, and Withrow are all better than Montgomery. (PS – You are also required – by law – to follow this order in any future drafts…)
The wind is in the buffalo.
by journeymen on Nov 4, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fucking great movie
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 5, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
all the better
that Marty Funkhouser’s cousin the dentist is in it.
by wobatus on Nov 5, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who wants to bet me...
Heyward doesn’t have the most successful career from this list?
by joegonzo on Nov 1, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
if you give me 100 to 1 odds
ill take that bet…. but you really arent going out on much of a limb by saying “ill take 99 guys to your 1 that someone here has a better career”
by PHGold09 on Nov 1, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sure if you bet me he has the least susccessful career on this list.
by yondaime4 on Nov 2, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he probably won't.
All it takes is one other guy on that list.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 2, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nice list, although I'd have Hellickson over Moore
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
by Dbullsfan on Nov 2, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Me too I like Hellickson over Moore slightly
however, D-Bulls fan I was thinking about you’re sig.
I’d take Drabek, Brown, and Taylor over Moore, Brignac and Beckham….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 2, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Give me Feliz, Perez, and Smoak over airbody
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Nov 2, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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