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BTFK's Top 100 Take 1.0



Hey guys,

I've never done this before, so it's my first shot.  Criticism WANTED!

I tried to make this list using upside and polish both in mind, but also took into HEAVY consideration performance (Thus Mr. Beckham's ranking).

Please let me know what you all think, thanks!

 

1. Jason Heyward
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Michael Stanton
4. Pedro Alvarez
5. Buster Posey
6. Neftali Perez
7. Brian Matsuz
8. Desmond Jennings
9. Justin Smoak
10. Carlos Santana
11. Jesus Montero
12. Fernando Martinez
13. Dominic Brown
14. Martin Perez
15. Chris Carter
16. Madison Bumgarner
17. Dustin Ackley
18. Ryan Westmoreland
19. Freddy Freeman
20. Jenry Mejia
21. Jeremy Hellickson
22. Alcides Escobar
23. Logan Morrison
24. Kyle Drabek
25. Michael Taylor
26. Jhoulys Chacin
27. Wade Davis
28. Lonnie Chisenhall
29. Christian Frederich
30, Hector Rondon
31. Austin Jackson
32. Ike Davis
33. Yonder Alonsp
34. Aaron Hicks
35. Josh Vitters
36. Tyler Flowers
37. Michael Saunders
38. Chris Withrow
39. Jeff Decker
40. Jordan Lyles
41. Brett Wallace
42. Daniel Hudson
43. Michael Montgomery
44. Wilmer Flores
45. Grant Desme
46. Jake Arrieta
47. Tim Beckham
48. Mike Moustakas
49. Julio Teheran
50. Josh Bell
51. Aaron Crow
52. Reid Brignac
53. James Darnell
54. Casey Crosby
55. Carlos Trunifel
56. Mat Dominguez
57. Starlin castro
58. Jacob Turner
59. Ben Revere
60. Brad Holt
61. Jason Castro
62. Donovan Tate
63. Josh Reddick
64. Tyler Matzek
65. Thomas Neal
66. Jose Tabata
67. Ryan Kalish
68. Brad Lincoln
69. Jemile Weeks
70. Jason Knapp
71. Danny Espinosa
72. Scott Sizemore
73. Brandon Snyder
74. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
75. Michael Ynoa
76. Brett Lawrie
77. Trevor Reckling
78. Casey Crosby
79. Jose Iglesias
80. Matt Dominguez
81. Derrek Norris
82. Zach Britton
83. Junichiro Tazawa
84. Tim Melville
85. Wilmer Font
86. Nick Weglarz
87. Austin Romine
88. Alex White
89. Mike Minor
90. Grant Green
91. Phillip Aumont
92. Tony Sanchez
93. Adrian Cardenas
94. Alex Liddy
95. Daniel Duffy
96. T. Scheppers
97. Jay Jackson
98. Simon castro
99. Shelpby Miller
100.Devaris-strange Gordon

1 recs  |  Comment 39 comments

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I like it.

I will, however, say A-Jax is waaaay too high.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Oct 28, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

There are no real glaring omissions — at least off the top of my head. I think some guys (AJax, Flores, Triunfel, Revere) are too high, though a lot of that’s personal opinion. Good list overall methinks.

by PhillyFriar on Oct 28, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Correction

Number six should read Neftali Feliz. Neftali Perez was a terribly crappy shortstop who long ago lost his prospect eligibility.

by aCone419 on Oct 28, 2009 2:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

desme

i’d say there’s no way the BA/espn “experts” put him any where near a top 50 despite a great season/afl. They still seem very skeptical and say he’s too old. He might be a fringe top 100 according to them

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 28, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He just hit another 3R HR. His 9th on the year.

He leads the AFL in HR/RBI/R as well as total bases.

"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein

by Syphon on Oct 28, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

#6 ranking

If “6. Neftali Perez” is the love child of Neftali Feliz & Martin Perez, then he is way too low!

Also. . . Strasburg is WAAAAY too low. If he is gonna throw 34 perfect games and get 780 K’s a year while throwing 113 MPH gas, he needs to be ranked higher.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Oct 28, 2009 2:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I agree...

Is there a spot above #1? Cause I mean Heyward is the consensus #1 prospect, but Strasberg is on a whole other level!

Is Strasberg even considered a prospect? Isn’t he just guaranteed Hall of Fame status?

by Zabat on Oct 28, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where is Casey Kelly!!!!!!!!!111111111111111eleven!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

eleven?

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Oct 28, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what about it

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Oct 28, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like it,

I like the aggressive ranking of Espinosa, a personal favorite of mine.

However, I do think Derek Norris and Lawrie pretty modestly ranked.

Also, Casey Crosby is listed twice (#54 & 78), which is correct?

by soxkid on Oct 28, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Austin Jackson is not a top 100 prospect.

.267/.323/.357. That is his luck adjusted line. 4th or 5th OF at this juncture, but time to develop.

by WrenFGun on Oct 28, 2009 4:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

In fact, here is what I wrote about why Austin Jackson is not a top 100 prospect:

“Austin Jackson is an interesting, possibly even competent fourth outfielder with some upside to be a second division starting candidate as a center fielder with some interesting athleticism. By all regards he has the speed (60 on the 20-80 scale) and the athleticism to field the position, though I’ve also read that he has, at best, an average arm, and the arm probably projects better at a corner outfield position, where his bat likely won’t play. His strongest supporters will suggest the fact that he is relatively raw to the game of baseball having been a multi-sport athlete (he was a really good basketball player in high school) and still pretty young at AAA (just 22). And, to some degree, I believe they are correct, as it is entirely unfair to judge Jackson in comparison to other 20-somethings coming directly out of college or having focused directly on baseball for much of their high school career.

With that said, players of that ilk (relatively raw with minimal now production and a lot of peripherals that support lesser numbers) are simply not top 100 prospects. You can perhaps give him more credit since he’s in AAA as opposed to Hi-A, but I still think there’s an awful lot of projection going on here to justify inclusion. Personally, I think he’s maxed himself out and basically is what he is, much like Jose Tabata with Pittsburgh (and formerly of the same Yankees). Despite fairly middling numbers (an average of .298 is good, but not mind-blowing for an elite prospect with otherwise empty numbers), his average on balls in play is nearly .400. In his defense, he did a great job of making solid contact (22% of his balls in play were line drives, which are the most likely to become hits), but even with that solid contact his average on balls in play was unsustainably high.

Another cause for concern is Jackson’s very low isolated power number, standing at just .106 for the season. For those who don’t know, isolated power is a simple measure that determines the percentage of balls a player is putting in play for extra bases (which is determined by taking the hitter’s slugging percentage and subtracting their batting average). Even for someone who can offer a bit in terms of speed and solid contact, that’s at the very limit of an acceptable major leaguer, particularly one who also doesn’t get on base at a terrific rate (Jackson walked just 7.7% of his plate appearances this season and his on-base percentage would drop significantly with a neutralized batting average). Indeed, if you quickly neutralize Jackson’s splits for park and luck (using http://www.minorleaguesplits.com), you’ll fine a a line of .260/.323/.357, which is absolutely terrible for anyone, top prospect or not.

I don’t mean to condemn Jackson, either. I still think he’s a guy I’d like to have in my minor league system (strong age relative to league, strong set of tools with major league speed and range, decent projection) but I believe most of the rankings I’ve seen consider him to be a nearly finished product. If that’s the case, you’re looking at a marginal at best (and frankly hardly useful) fourth outfielder. If given a few years to fully develop, it’s still possible there is more here."

http://www.baseballstothewall.com (you can find a list of the top 100 prospects there, as well).

by WrenFGun on Oct 28, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting....

There are things I like, things I don’t Like…

No Casey Kelly
No Michael Moore
Casey Crosby is on there twice

Also I agree with A previous Poseter yankees OF prospect Austin Jackson is a little high…

on my own personal list I had him originally in the70s then into the 60s and I think he ended up 58th or something…..
I feel Austin Jackson is a little overrated

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

sorry mean to say Pitcher

Tampa Bay Rays Matthew Moore

I had him at #19 or 20….

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha

yeah i knew who you meant. didn’t realize we ranked him exactly the same though, nice

by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well...

casey crosby is on there twice cause one should be casey kelly

so theres half the things you dont like gone..

by matthewmafa on Oct 28, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes,

but which one?

by soxkid on Oct 29, 2009 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

1 of them is #54 and the other is #78.

No matter which one is which, they’re both way too low.

Both Caseys belong in the top 40.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Oct 29, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Holt

as a Mets fan I am liking fact he is showing up here at 60 and SHS’s list at 63. Although I have to say i am a little surprised given his season, although I like the potential. For now i prefer someone more polished like Niese to Holt.

by wobatus on Oct 28, 2009 5:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

mm, good point.

Have not been seeing enough Niese on these lists.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Oct 28, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

question

What’s your thought process in putting Sizemore above Crosby? It’s not nessecerily a bad thing, but I’d like to hear why you’ve decided to break from the mainstream.

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 28, 2009 9:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Carter

I like Carter, a lot, but I would still have to say that this is a very aggressive ranking for him. On that subject, does anyone know why he has quit playing in the Mexican Pacific League over the last week or so. Injury? Just wanted to play for a short time? Any ideas?

by Dalman on Oct 29, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Illness

It was an “undisclosed illness.” He came back to the states a week ago or more.

Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports

by nobodyinparticular on Oct 30, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Turns out it was the stomach flu

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Oct 31, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Am I the only one who's at least a little worried about Stanton's AA performance?

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Oct 29, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I know he's young

But it just seems to me people are a little too quick to overlook his strikeout problems.

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Oct 29, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not worried

cautious…maybe.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Oct 29, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Oct 29, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice List

You know, many people/organizations including BA seem really high on Alex White and have him in the top 100 or close to it, but to be honest I think he’s too much of a thrower and not enough of a pitcher (lousy mechanics and lousy command). Personally, I’d rank him as the Indians’ 7th best pitching prospect (eleventh overall) behind Rondon, Hagadone, Carrasco, Knapp, House and A. Perez in that order. Thoughts?

by Alex Trebek on Oct 30, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Same

1. Rondon
2. Knapp
3. Carrasco
4. Hagadone
5. de la Cruz
6. Perez
7. House
8. White

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Nov 2, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Where is Matt Moore?

Did you just forget him? He’s a consensus top 25, and he’s not on your top 100?

by at022482 on Nov 2, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He's not a consensus top 25

He will probably be in some top 25s, but that is not a consensus position.

by aCone419 on Nov 2, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

He hasn’t performed above low-A ball, he’s unathletic, and has poor mechanics.

The K numbers are extremely impressive, though.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Nov 2, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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