Washington Nationals Farm System Discussion
by John Sickels on Oct 27, 2009 11:20 AM EDT
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PrintI'm working on the Royals right now. Use this thread to discuss the Washington Nationals farm system.
Strasburg...does he get a straight Grade A? Or should I go with A- until we get more evidence?
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Strasburg is an A
We have several innings of pitch f/x, and while thats not alot, it certainly shows he can maintian 96 with movement on his FB after not pitching for 5 months, he’s got a late biting slider (moves like a curveball) and apparently early reports from the AFL are that his change-up is above-average to plus as well…
i really don’t see anything to not like about him
If strasburg doesn't get an A, who does this year?
I’m guessing Matusz (or Feliz?) is an A (could be wrong there), but can you really rank him above Strasburg?
A-
Not sure how you can give him a straight A until you get some data from pro ball. Maybe after fall ball season is over he could get an A.
Agree
I think the fall season needs to play out a little before you can give an A. There’s too little data right now.
I concur
A- on potential. Though this is a moot argument since even A- is still a top shelf prospect.
A-
I just don’t know how you can rate anyone a straight A without professional experience. You can have all the stuff in the world, but you have to prove that your head is on straight and that you can deal with playing professionally. Seems stupid, but environment matters a lot in sports, and proving that you can survive in a high-stress, high-profile environment is not something you can just by virtue of pedigree.
So AA ball is high-stress and high-profile
but the Olympics aren’t?
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
Both high stress
But a different grind than AA, AAA, etc. Division I and Olympics are valuable tools for projecting, but, as with all DI sports, the talent is more diluted. Getting numbers from AFL will be helpful, getting numbers from AA or AAA even better. Of course, Stras is so good and the Nats so bad, he may not spend much time in the Minors, anyway.
how tough
is the conference he was in?
Well, he pitched 4 1/3rd of 1 hit, k k 2 walks today, so that’ll quiet folks down a bit.
I do think that feliez, even if in relief, dominating major league hitters and with reports on his stuff to match, may deserve a higher ranking, but it is close in my mind.
I'd say more people in America pay attention to AA baseball than Olympic baseball
I didn’t even realize baseball was still an Olympic sport.
by thejd44 on Oct 28, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
He gets an A.
There really isn’t anyone on his level in the minors, even if you doubt the wildest scouting reports. He’ll hit some bumps, but he’s as good of a pitching prospect as there can be with the high risk of injury.
My question is more about Drew Storen. I think we all thought he was overdrafted, but he’s dominated. Is he a B? A B+? The best reliever in the minors? I loved his pure stuff in the pre-draft timeframe, but I thought he was more in the mid- to late-first round (had him at #21 on my personal board).
Beyond that, I liked the pick of Jeff Kobernus, but thought it was an overdraft, and I also like Nate Karns, a deadline day signee from Texas Tech.
Trevor Holder in the third round? Seriously?
A few names, and I'd be interested to see how they turn out
Strasburg and Storen, obviously.
Marrero – MLB regular at 1st base?
Bernadina – does his DL time mean he’s no longer a rookie? (and, can he be more than a 4th / 5th outfielder?)
Maxwell – love the tools, but can he execute?
Espinoza – (too) streaky a hit tool?
Desmond – rescued his prospect status? Will his fielding drive everyone insane?
Balester / Mock / Martis / Detweiler – (are they still rooks? Perhaps not) – 4th/5th starters, or anything more?
Everts – does he still have a chance?
Mandel & Meyers – genuine MLB prospects?
Michael Burgess – can he hit enough to let the power shine through?
Milone – a soft tosser in A ball, or anything more?
Lombardozzi – a middle infielder for the (distant) future?
Norris – potential stud – but at C, RF or 1B?
Destin Hood – tools and talent?
JP Ramirez – will he hit enough?
Eury Perez – if you win a batting title in the GCL by 40 points in your first year in the states, what does it mean?
All the young arms – Frias; McGeary, Jaime, and a few others – what could they amount to?
And the 2009 draft – outside of the first round, how do you see it turning out? A few overdrafts in there, but what lasting talent have they picked up?
Just a few ideas……
A few more names...
I’d add Jeff Kobernus – 2B – to the list – he was the 3rd rounder, 50th overall. He was injured after playng about 10 games of A ball.
Trevor Holder – RHP – was the 4th rounder out of Georgia.
And Brandon King – RHP – a 27th rounder out of WV who signed over slot.
My thoughts as a Nats fan
I’d like to think I’m not too much of a homer, but feel free to call me out on anything outlandish. Admittedly, I’m higher than most on Marrero, Espinosa, Detwiler and Mock and lower than most on Maxwell, Norris and Burgess
Marrero-good chance of being an above average MLB regular at 1B
Bernadina-4th/5th OF at best, k’s way too much
Maxwell-disappointing in AAA, getting old, k’s way too much. I’m not a believer in the bat.
Espinosa-good looking OBP and SLG don’t rely on a high batting average. K’s need to come down, but they don’t scare me like Maxwell’s do.
Desmond-not as good as his ML stint, not as bad as his non-2007/09 minor league seasons.
Balester/Martis-4th/5th starter ceilings, time is running out even though they are the younger ones.
Detwiler/Mock-3rd/4th starter ceilings, I expect these two to be decent ML starters in the longrun.
Everts-will live and die by BB’s. Will get a shot in the DC bullpen next summer and probably won’t stick.
Mandel/Meyers-4th/5th starter ceilings IMO, haven’t seen either of them pitch in person yet though.
Burgess-the least predictable of all Nats players IMO. Tools are definitely there, but 2 years in a row of good-but-not-great numbers scare me.
Milone-has been compared by Cliff Lee on some Nats sites…I’m not willing to go that far, but could be a Lannan-type.
Lombardozzi-C prospect at best, but intriguing ability to hit for average as well as take walks.
Norris-I’m going to go against the grain and say that Norris will stick at C in the majors but will not be as much of a stud with the bat as people think. I need 1 more full year of minor league ball to judge Norris’ future.
Hood-great in rookie ball, terrible in low A, still too early to judge him on his numbers tbh.
Ramirez-if I remember correctly, hitting is what he does well…he doesn’t have much power yet though.
Perez-Awesome GCL numbers, too early to tell if he’s for real.
McGeary-Sucked in A ball, average when they moved him back down to low A. BB rates skyrocketed, but I wonder how much it had to do with a huge innings increase. Too early to jump ship, although he’s as much of a project as anyone.
Kobernus-I’m a big fan of Kobernus, but his numbers are way too small of a sample size to digest.
Holder-non-prospect IMO. Was a terrible draft pick.
King-looked good in the GCL in 30 and 1/3 IP…don’t know much about him so I won’t pass judgment yet.
by thehoagster07 on Oct 27, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Strasburg is considered by many to be the #1 prospect in baseball
If he’s not an A, then is anyone?
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
by wickedwitch on Oct 27, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Hood and Storen
Are probably the two I’m most interested in. Hood strikes me as one of those boom or bust picks. On ceiling alone, he should be right up near the top of this list. But his performance indicates that the former football star has a long ways to go. Storen is much more of a sure bet and is likely to close in the majors sometime in 2010.
Smoker
It was good to see Josh Smoker back and pitching this season.
He was too old for his level (Rk Ball) but he’s still just 20 and had 48.1 IP on his resume entering the year
42.1 IP, 46 H, 10 BB, 31 K, 3.19 FIP, .328 BABIP, 45% GB
Nothing remarkable, but given his draft status and injury history, I’d have to think it was a step in the right direction. The scouting reports I read on him never painted him as a guy who’d fan a ton, but I’d like to see him get a shot in Lo-A next season to see how he handles a full year. Might be an interesting candidate for the back-end of the top 20.
probably an A
there’s enough background and it’s not like hasn’t been pitching. Focusing solely on experience would mean that all college players would get underrated. It’s a different form of experience, but experience nonetheless.
Add in that, I’m assuming Strasburg is the top prospect, and Heyward got an A. That said, maybe I’m wrong and Strasburg isn’t John’s top prospect.
Hitters/Pitchers
He breaks up his list to make it top 50 hitters and top 50 pitchers, and the grades for each aren’t directly comparable. So long as John doesn’t give any other pitcher a better grade, I think an A- can be justified.
If you're BA, an A, Sickels = A-
since he’s a combo of tools and results. With minimal results from the AFL, can’t really give him a full A grade.
BA in their draft report card, also mentioned Naoya Washiya. the Nats first Asian signee, although quite the tortuous path was followed to get him – he was born in Hokkaido, couldn’t get into the school he wanted to in Japan, sent videos to US schools, and came to a JuCo in US.
Given the weak state of Nats Minor position players, he could be in top 30 for Nats.
Anybody have any thoughts on Marvin Lowrance?
Didn’t do much in ’09, but he played pretty well the two years before that.
A's are for Pros
Despite his lofty college career – he hasn’t pitched against pros. He didn’t even pitch in one of the strongest college conferences…. I’d give him the A- and make him show me something in the AFL.
I would typically agree that a player without minor league experience doesn't deserve an A.
However, when I try to rank the pitching prospects for 2010, I can’t help but put Strasburg at the top. You pretty much have to give him an A if that’s the case.
A+
he is seen as the best pitching prospect ever coming out of the draft
Strasburg has dominant AFL outing ...
hit 100 3 times in the first inning
according to rob neyer i think it was him
never mind
it was jason grey who said 100 3 times in the first inning
A- pending further results
He’s an A-, for now. But he’s putting up results in the AFL. I’m further impressed that he started off poorly (in the first game) and then rebounded. If his fall continues to be good he can be and A when the book is released.
actually his first game was great
it was his second game that he hit a rough patch, but they really only squared up on a couple of hung breaking balls iirc.
I say A for Stras
Ask yourself this question….. if there is ever a time a pitching prospect gets an A is it not right now ?
If Srasburg gets an A- (arguably the best prospect of all time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! )
then who in the heck will ever get an A ? (a pitcher that is)
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 27, 2009 9:46 PM EDT reply actions
IF srasburg gets an A-, then who in the heck will every get an A?
Strasburg. Sorry man, just messing with you
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Ruben Rivera
Paul Wilson and Ben Grieve. :)
Seriously, you can still give As to guys who have done extremely well in the minors while not giving Strazz an A yet.
I want to see more, but he is at least an A- today
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Oct 27, 2009 11:56 PM EDT reply actions
Nats' Future at SS
Who is the 2012 or 2013 Opening Day Shortstop for the Nationals, Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa? This is actually relevant for me in drafting for my dynasty league next year but also I’m curious just as a baseball fan.
nats future ss. in 2012....
Neither ! As both have major,major holes bat wise….
RANKINGS
1 Strasburg A- - has the stuff but still too small sample size to rank as a straight A
2 Norris B- -- COULD be a B if sticks at C but that’s a big if….
3 Storen B- -- solid debut,could be in the pen straight out of spring
4 Desmond C+ - LOOKED good in callup but past history shows otherwise
5 Marrero C+ -- still issues about power & zone
6 McGreary C+ - based on stuff & intelligence
7 Hood C+ - has the tools but will they play out ?
8 Kobernus C+ - solid 2B whose advanced approach will look good at lower levels
9 Ramirez C - see Hood
10 Burgess C - has youth & talent but is it enough ?
11 Veloz C- - could become a nice middle infielder
12 Espinoza C- - still learning but has “Diamond” problems…
13 Nieto C- - has skills
14 Thompson C- —former stud in Marlins system stock dropping but still only 22/23
15 Smoker C- like most of the non promoted class has certain skills but lacks polish
by frenchredsox on Oct 28, 2009 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Strasburg must be an A
Even if you have Heyward above him, are there really 5-10 other players you would rank above Strasburg? I know it is difficult to rank aggressively with the limited data, but Strasburg does have an amazing college career behind him, is considered a once in a generation prospect, and contrary to some option, scouting reports do actually matter.
Of course Strasburg is an A
Unless the grading system has nothing to do with a prospect’s current value, Strasburg has to be an A. How many seconds would it take the Marlins to decide to deal Stanton, or the Yankees Montero, or the Giants Bumgarner, for Strasburg? Six seconds? Heyward is about the only prospect equivalent to his Strasburg’s value.
It’s not like it’s simply scouting reports with this guy. We’ve seen him dominate college ball and the Olympics. You don’t give 16 year old kids with tremendous scouting reports an A because the scouting reports are all projecting about his future development; Strasburg is already there, development-wise. He could pitch in the majors right now. The 16 year old kid has years and years to go before he gets to the show, and has to have his development path go as expected.
The only reason to not give Strasburg an A is if one has some general policy concerning grades and sample sizes, “I don’t give A’s to guys who haven’t played in the minors,” etc. The only problem there is that policy means the grades are more about one’s attitude concerning prospecting than they are about the prospects’ actual value.
Bumgarner?
I think I’d keep the lefty who is one full year younger and has a career minor league level ERA below 2.00 and a career major league level ERA also under 2.00 (albeit with a small sample size). Even the Giants wouldn’t make that move.
Heyward
I wouldn’t trade him for Stras, and might not trade Feliz for Strasburg. And even if you would trade Montero for Strasburg, that may be because Strasburg’s ceiling is so high, but right now his chances of failure are probably higher (although that may be because he is a pitcher and injury is more likely than Montero). Montero may not be an A because of his fielding. Stanton maybe not due to strikeouts, although at that rate you’d have very few As.
Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were A prospects. They haven’t had A careers.
Kerry Wood and Mark Prior
Have no relation to Strasburg’s current value. You can do that for any prospect. Are you going to make Jason Heyward an A- because Delmon Young can’t get his crap together? Heyward hasn’t proven it in the show yet, how can we give him an A, etc.
That sort of exercise gets us nowhere when talking about Strasburg and Heyward as actual prospects. They aren’t ‘types,’ but players at a certain point of development who have a track record (can be objectively analyzed), current tools and skills (mix of objective/subjective analysis), and a certain amount of development and projection ahead of them (extremely subjective analysis). You have to weigh this matrix of material to get your value grade of a guy.
of course
you can do it for any prospect. Just so happens with pitchers a flameout is more likely, and Stras hasn’t faced pro comp yet. Heyward has. I don’t know enough about who he has faced. I have a lot of reports about how good his stuff is, but that’s only half of it. As he moves up, more and more the stats become more relevant and the scouting reports have to start being matched by the stats. With Young the lack of walks and low ISO as he moved up the ranks were a bad sign. Although it just seems like he regressed.
Strasburg is supposed to be can’t miss, but to me, Feliz has awesome stuff AND has dominated major leaguers, albeit in relief. Matusz has shown flashes against major leaguers. Stras has dominated SDSU opponents.
Well actually
Kerry Wood and Mark Prior do have a relation with Strasburg. Their pitching mechanics are pretty similar and all three of them were/are stuff pitchers. Since Strasburg is throwing so hard, he has a fairly strong chance to injure himself within a few years. since he’s exerting more force on his body. If he gets injured and tries to compensate, that could be when he becomes like Prior.
Some pitchers don’t adapt well to wooden bats which is why college experience is taken with a grain of salt. That’s unlikely to be the case with Strasburg, especially since his velocity is so high. In any case pitchers with high velocity and good stuff typically aren’t challenged until triple-A or even the major leagues. When they do get challenged it can become ugly. Think of Radhamez Liz two years ago leading to the 30-3 Rangers victory over the Orioles
Pretty Weak
All around for the Nats.
I would put their top 10 as Strasburg, Storen, Norris, Hood, Holder, Espinosa, Detwiler, Desmond, Perez, Burgess
how can they be classified as "weak"?
they have the best Pitching prospect in the game, a top RP prospect in Storen, a stud C prospect in Norris, 2 very decent/good SS prospects in Espinosa and Desmond. they have a good to very good system.
a top 5 of
Stras
Norris
Espinosa
Desmond
Storen
is really good… i realize it thins out after that… but still
Espinosa = Dirtbag = Good
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Oct 29, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
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