SHS' 2010 top 100 prospects in MiLB
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 10:59 AM EDT
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My queston to you is who would you slot into the top 5 with that 5th spot? Jennings, Brown? Feliz, Montero? hmmm...
so who would you slide up? - I DECIDED to go with Buster Posey....
1. Jason Heyward OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Michael Stanton OF, Florida Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg SP, Washington Nationals
4. Pedro Alvarez 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Buster Posey C , San Francisco Giants
6. Jesus Montero C/DH, New York Yankees
7. Neftali Feliz SP, Texas Rangers
8. Brian Matusz SP, Baltimore Orioles
9. Desmond Jennings OF, Tampa Bay Rays
10. Justin Smoak 1B , Texas Rangers
11. Dominic Brown OF, Philadelphia Phillies
12. Carlos Santana C , Cleveland Indians
13. Madison Bumgarner SP, San Francisco Giants
14. Freddy Freeman 1B , Atlanta Braves
15. Jeremy Hellickson SP, Tampa Bay Rays
16. Martin Perez SP, Texas Rangers
17. Dustin Ackley OF , Seattle Mariners
18. Chris Carter DH, Oakland Athletics
19. Matthew Moore SP , Tampa Bay Rays
20. Tim Beckham SS, Tampa Bay Rays
21. Michael Taylor OF, Philadelphia Phillies
22. Kyle Drabek SP, Philadelphia Phillies
23. Jenrry Mejia SP , New York Mets
24. Alcides Escobar SS , Milwaukee Brewers
25. Yonder Alonso 1B , Cincinnati Reds
26. Chris Withrow SP , LA Dodgers
27. Julio Teheran SP , Atlanta Braves
28. Ryan Westmoreland OF , Boston Red Sox
29. Logan Morrison 1B , Florida Marlins
30. Jhoulys Chacin SP , Colorado Rockies
31. Christian Frederich SP , Colorado Rockies
32. Hector Rondon SP , Cleveland Indians
33. Wade Davis SP, Tampa Bay Rays
34. Fernando Martinez OF , New York Mets
35. Jaff Decker OF , San Diego Padres
36. Casey Kelly SP, Boston Red Sox
37. Aaron Hicks OF, Minnesota Twins
38. Jordan Lyles SP , Houston Astros
39. Lonnie Chisenhall 3B , Cleveland Indians
40. Ike Davis 1B , New York Mets
41. Daniel Hudson SP, Chicago White Sox
42. Reid Brignac SS , Tampa Bay Rays
43. Michael Saunders OF , Seattle Mariners
44. Josh Vitters 3B , Chicago Cubs
45. Michael Montgomery SP, Kansas City Royals
46. James Darnell 3B , San Diego Padres
47. Tyler Flowers 1B/C , Chicago White Sox
48. Grant Desme OF , Oakland Athletics
49. Casey Crosby SP , Detroit Tigers
50. Jake Arrieta SP , Baltimore Orioles
51. Austin Jackson OF , New York Yankees
52. Jose Iglesias SS , Boston Red Sox
53. Carlos Trunifel SS , Seattle Mariners
54. Matt Dominguez 3B , Florida Marlins
55. Zach Britton SP, Baltimore Orioles
56. Josh Bell 3B , Baltimore Orioles
57. Aaron Crow SP , Kansas City Royals
58. Derek Norris C , Washington Nationals
59. Brett Wallace 1B , Oakland Athletics
60. Starlin Castro SS , Chicago Cubs
61. Jacob Turner SP , Detroit Tigers
62. Mike Moustakas 3B , Kansas City Royals
63. Bradley Holt SP , New York Mets
64. Ben Revere OF , Minnesota Twins
65. Devaris-strange Gordon SS , LA Dodgers
66. Trevor Reckling SP , LA Angels
67. Donavan Tate OF , San Diego Padres
68. Brett Lawrie OF/2B , Milwaukee Brewers
69. Jason Castro C , Houston Astros
70. Wilmer Flores SS , New York Mets
71. J.J. Reddick OF , Bo Red Sox
72. Zach McCalister SP , New York Yankees
73. Tyler Matzek SP , Colorado Rockies
74. Jonathan Lucroy C , Milwaukee Brewers
75. Thomas Neal OF , San Francisco Giants
76. Andrew Cashner SP , Chicago Cubs
77. Jose Tabata OF , Pittsburgh Pirates
78. Ryan Kalish OF , Bo Red Sox
79. Brad Lincoln SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
80. Shelby Miller SP , St Louis Cardinals
81. Andrew Lambo OF , LA Dodgers
82. Simon Castro SP , San Diego Padres
83. Wilson Ramos C , Minnesota Twins
84. Wilmer Font SP , Texas Rangers
85. Todd Frazier Utl. , Cincinnati Reds
86. Jemile Weeks 2B , Oakland Athletics
87. Jay Jackson SP , Chicago Cubs
88. Nick Weglarz OF , Cleveland Indians
89. Austin Romine C , New York Yankees
90. Jason Knapp SP , Cleveland Indians
91. Peter Bourjos OF , LA Angels
92. Danny Espinosa SS , Washington Nationals
93. Mike Leake SP , Cincinnati Reds
94. Scott Sizemore 2B, Detroit Tigers
95. Wynn Pelzer SP , San Diego Padres
96. Brandon Snyder 1B , Baltimore Orioles
97. Zachary Wheeler SP , San Francisco Giants
98. Randall Delgado SP , Atlanta Braves
99. Lance Lynn SP , St Louis Cards
100. Miguel Angel Sano SS , Minnesota Twins
H.M.
Aroldis Chapman (FA)
Alex White
Mike Minor
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Kellen Kulbackii
Ethan Martin
Manny Banuelos
Michael Ynoa
Phillip Aumont
Kyle Gibson
Erik Hosmer
Willin Rosario
Hak-ju Lee
Alexander Soto
William Smith
Eric Young JR.
Robbie Ross
Logan Forsythe
Tyson Gillies
Daniel Duffy / Travis D' Arnaud
Chad James / Drew Storen
Tim Melville or Bradley Meyers? Tim Alderson? -30 man cutoff......
Players in top 100 by team...
TOTAL N.L. =50
Atlanta Braves (4) - New York Mets (5) - Florida Marlins (3) - Philadelphia Phillies (3){all top 25) - Washington Nats (3)
St Louis. Cards (2) - Chicago Cubs (4) - Pittsburgh Pirates (3) - Cincinatti Reds (3) - Houston Astros (2) - Milwaukee Brewers (3)
LA Dodgers (3) - Colorado Rockies (3) - San Francisco Giants (4) - San Diego Padres (5) - Arizona D'Backs (0)
TOTAL A.L. =50
New York Yankees (4) - Boston Red Sox (5) - Tampa Bay Rays (6){all top 50} - Baltimore Orioles (5) - Toronto Jays (0)
Minnesota Twins (4) - Detroit Tigers (3) - Chicago White Sox (2) - Kansas City Royals (3) - Cleveland Indians (5)
LA Angels (2) - Texas Rangers (4) - Oakland Athletics (4) - Seattle Mariners (3)
*** Alcides Escobar and Fernando Martinez qualify for my list .......but no Matt Gamel, Matt Latos or Maybin
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again?
try Jesus Montero, not Miguel Montero.
by richieabernathy on Oct 26, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions
oops, thanks
crappy mistake
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Casey Crosby
He seems awful low to me, and Sano/Ynoa really don’t belong anywhere near a top 100 (IMO). Chapman probably should be top 50 though. He’s proven himself against much tougher competition and we have seen the kind of fastball that he has.
+1
One of Crosby/Turner should be in the top 50 at least- they probably both belong in the 40-60 range.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Oct 26, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
RE: Crosby
after taking out Matt Latos and some other editing I decided to move Crosby up
and surprisingly all the way into the top 50.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 31, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
No way is he top 100
Not with his injury history. He has a huge ceiling, but he’s one of the biggest injury risks in professional baseball.
Well then wouldnt you have to
take Parker off the HM list? I mean Scheppers is an injury risk of course but Parker is CURRENTLY injured. With a big one at that…
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Oct 26, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
The difference is that Scheppers’s potential surgery (labrum surgery) has a MUCH worse success rate than TJ. If it didn’t, there’s no way he would be pitching through a 50% tear right now. He would have had the surgery at the end of his junior season, and proved that his stuff was back in Indy ball.
Another difference is
“potential surgery” isn’t nearly as damaging as actual surgery.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
Highly unlikely he has a 50% tear
The only source to report that is Mayo pre-draft, and it is not even sure that Mayo’s sources saw the updated medicals on Scheppers. On 8 to 10 teams requested and saw the newest medical reports prior to the draft. Now everyone just references Mayo’s report because a players medical records are confidential.
My biggest issue is that you treat TJ as having a higher success rate than all shoulder injuries. Surgery yes, but may players play years or even their entire career with partial tears. TJ is not a slam dunk as you think. yes the surgery may be successful, but it does not guarantee the prospect will regain his earlier form.
More likely he pitches with it till it either gives out or his injury label goes away,
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Yes
The tear may very well be less severe than that, we just don’t know. We do know that he was drafted significantly later than where his talent deemed he should have been taken. This was entirely because of the injury risk attached to him.
I’m not trying to minimize TJ surgery. Labrum surgery is just a massive blow to a pitcher, one which few pitchers have successfully came back from. Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt and say there’s only a 25% chance that he’ll need it, it still is a massive risk.
It’s not that I dislike Scheppers, in fact, I was pissed that Neal didn’t sign him last August. I just think it’s way too risky to rank him in the top 100.
That's retarded
All prospects carry a risk, I’d be willing to bet everything I have that more than one of the guys on your list has a major injury that either ends their career or significantly diminishes it. To say a 25% risk on someone who may be injured has a greater risk of failure than someone who IS injured (surgery is surgery, nothing good about it) is asinine. It’s not like Parker is the kid from Rookie of the Year
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky"-Michael Scott
by ReallyCreativeScreenName on Oct 26, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Tanner Scheppers carries more risk
When did I post a list? I gave a generous hypothetical that there’s a 25% chance he’ll need labrum surgery, something that very few pitchers ever come back from.
Hmmm
I think I agree with Jar that I’d rather have TJ surgery than labrum surgery, and fraying of the labrum is a very big risk. That said, there is next to ZERO recent scouting information on Scheppers other than that he has looked pretty good in AFL. I’ve often said that I’d rather have a TJ than a situation like Rich Harden over the last 5 years, but until/if Scheppers has a setback, we’ll probably know nothing more than what was reported in the past. For me, Scheppers will probably be in the 40-60 range based on stuff and an injury history caveat. Without the injury history, he could be Top 25 IMO.
I didn’t mean to make it sound like I don’t like Scheppers. I think his ceiling is immensely high, but he really hasn’t pitched much with the injury. He had a few starts in Indy ball and a few AFL outings, but I want to see how his shoulder actually holds up to a season’s worth of work before I’m OK with placing him high on lists.
Little known fact...
Pitchers don’t need intact labrums to pitch. Most pitchers are already pitching with a torn labrum, and nearly all adult pitchers have a frayed labrum.
A torn labrum only becomes a problem when it leads to a loss of range of motion or [chronic] biceps tendinitis. A torn labrum doesn’t really heal itself because the tissue isn’t very vascular in nature; less blood flow = slow or non-existant healing.
Rehab and mechanical adjustments are always preferred to surgery because surgery wrecks the rotator cuff. Shockingly atrophied and scarred rotator cuffs are easily torn when pitchers do too much, too soon while building their arms back up.
Scheppers reportedly cleaned up his mechanics after his injury, and there have been zero reports of problems since then.
by NoNameOnCard on Oct 28, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Example of a pitcher that pitched with a torn labrum
and really did just fine was Relief Pitcher Jesse Crain , Twins
and in 2009 he finally showed some of that huge potential he once had….
If I remember correctly even John Sickles one year in early 2000s has Jesse as an A- (probably when he was a starter)
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Darren O'Day "rehabbed" his torn labrum.
There’s a good chunk of pitchers who play with this problem.
Like I said, it’s not really a problem until it causes other problems. It’s definitely a risk factor, but it’s one that can be totally manageable…. or completely mismanaged.
by NoNameOnCard on Oct 28, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You don't NEED a labrum
But it still hurts like hell to throw overhand at full force when you have torn one
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yeah... lets not diminish this
Its not a “death sentence” like it used to be, but its about the worst injury a pitcher can get. There’s absolutely no way to repair it.
Its not as bad as it used to be… but its really bad news.
What are you talking about?
There are at least 3 techniques in practice today for repairing torn labrums.
by NoNameOnCard on Oct 29, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, what kind of tear are we talking about?
I was under the impressiont that for a full SLAP tear, there really isnt much you can do, besides clean it up, shave it down and give it time to heal – hopefully well enough to let the pitcher perform with tolerable pain.
What other treatments are there? There’s ways to alleviate pain/symptoms and allow healing – but not really anything that will allow a professional athlete with a full tear to return to pitching without major risk or re-injury.
I'm not sure where you got that impression.
Typical surgery is arthroscopic. The doctor cleans up frayed edges before drilling into the glenoid fossa of the scapula. Metal anchors are placed in the holes, and sutures are used to tie the torn part of the labrum in place.
Before the sutures are fastened, the doctor actually scratches/scrapes the surface causing it to bleed. This promotes healing.
The other procedures are much older and are not really in use. This includes open surgery, which I imagine would still be used in extreme cases.
I hurt my shoulder playing hockey in January 2001. I pitched with it for 8 years before finally having surgery to repair it this March. Pitching never hurt, but late in 2008, I would get pretty severe pain after upper body workouts.
Anyway, the idea is that the injury itself isn’t so bad, but the recovery from corrective surgery is rough and difficult to come back from.
by NoNameOnCard on Oct 29, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it doesn't.
It hurts some people and leaves others completely asymptomatic.
by NoNameOnCard on Oct 29, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Jarrod Parker more than Tanner Scheppers
that is why Parker made H.M.
I know Scheppers has a BIG fastball but he too is a large question mark…
Parker would have been this close to major league ready if it weren’t for the tommy john surgery but because of what he has already proven he gets mentioned …
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Some interesting links for the last few days...
Article about Crow and Scheppers and the AFl and their draft experiences
Link
Ask BA’s blurb about Parker
After missing all of August with elbow problems, Parker hoped rehabilitation rather than surgery would get him back on the mound, but he’ll go under the knife on Wednesday. He’ll probably miss all of the 2010 season and may not reclaim his stuff and command until mid-2011.
The numerous success stories of players coming back from Tommy John surgery as good as or better than new—starting with Tommy John and also including Chris Carpenter, John Smoltz, Kerry Wood and untouchable Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek, among many others—temper any concerns about Parker’s long-term future. On the other hand, instead of being able to help the Diamondbacks by mid-2010, he now has timetable pushed back 18-24 months.
That dents Parker’s value, but it’s just a little ding. Before he got hurt, I would have ranked Parker as the No. 2 pitching prospect in baseball, behind only Stephen Strasburg (Nationals). After all, he had a 93-95 mph fastball, a slider that’s at least a plus pitch and a changeup that has a chance to be an above-average offering. He also threw strikes and got a lot of grounders, and power pitchers who do that are destined for success.
Now that Parker will miss all of next season, I’ll slot him behind a handful of guys who have proven themselves in the upper minors, such as Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Drabek, Neftali Feliz (Rangers), Brian Matusz (Orioles) and Chris Tillman (Orioles). However, I’m not ready to move him behind youngsters who haven’t dazzled anyone above Class A, such as Casey Kelly (Red Sox), Matt Moore (Rays) and Martin Perez (Rangers).
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
i was mildly surprised
when i read that the first time, and he suggested Parker was number 2 behind Stras pre-injury. Admittedly, I hadn’t pondered it that long before, and Parker was a candidate, but for some reason, I never thought of him as the number 2 pitching prospect. That said, he makes a good case for why.
butchered a bunch of others too
but the list is not bad. not sure the point about leaving 5 blank though.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
I dunno I guess i was hoping that you guys could help me decide
who to slide up?
I started around 120 and went backwards ….. and couldn’t get the top 5-10 the way I wanted it
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Funny you say that...
He’s #23 on the list above, and I thought that was a bit high.
KG had this in a chat:
Carl (Buffalo, NY): With a strong showing in the AFL, could Jenry Mejia be a top 20 prospect? What about Ike Davis?
Kevin Goldstein: As in Top 20 in all of baseball? No way.
LCB (NY): Why do you hate Jenrry Mejia so much?
Kevin Goldstein: Ok, so let me get this right, any prospect who I don’t think is in the Top 20 of all of baseball, I now hate? Ok, got it. Man, that’s a lot of hate to go around. I like Mejia just fine, but if you think he’s top 20, that’s kinda nuts.
A couple issues
overall nice job.
Gotta question Derek Norris, a power bat with better defensive results and expectations that he’ll stick there, or Revere being ranked well below someone like Triunfel. Not sure how Triunfel gets the benefit of the doubt whereas someone like Hosmer slid right off.
Norris has been removed -thanks
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
interesting list
on the cubs side of it,
jay jackson is probably where i expect most lists to have him, somewhere from 80-120.
I think Cashner’s a tad high. A case can be made for it on upside, but personally, I think he’s a 90-150ish type right now.
I would also go Starlin ahead of Josh at this point in time, and I think Starlin might be a top 50 guy, and perhaps the best shortstop prospect in the minors right now. I don’t necessarily expect the insane expectations that are being discussed right now, but even at season’s end, he was a guy projected to have a good glove, hit for contact, and eventually develop some power.
I’m a bit surprised that Hak-ju Lee didn’t at least make a HM list. He’ll be an interesting one to watch in postseason lists – on upside, he could go quite high, but so far away. I’d guess he’ll fit on most lists somewhere from 80-120.
Other Cubs:
Brett Jackson – Callis (and whichever scouts he’s talking to) is really hyping him up as the Cubs 2nd best prospect. I disagree, but he could probably fit on most lists in that 90-150 area.
Chris Carpenter – probably a 120-150 type of guy for most lists, but I bring him up because his stuff is better than Cashner’s right now in terms of a 1-2 punch, as Cashner’s breaking ball struggled this year.
I'd also expect
Castro to be in the top 50. Law and Goldstein also seemed to like him alot. I’d still say Vitters is the number 2 prospect for the Cubs. I also think Cashner’s closeness to the bigs gives him an edge over Jackson and Carpenter, even though Casher will likely be a reliever and those other two might make starters. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cashner was in the Cubs pen by mid-late 2010.
by philadelphiacub on Oct 26, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
that Jackson is far closer to the bigs. There hasn’t been, from what I’ve read, any indication that Cashner’s slider is back to where it was, and with Jackson, at least he has the plus slider to go with his fb velo, which when used in shorter spurts, has been up in the high 90’s before. Thus, not only do I think Jackson’s the better starting prospect, I think he’s the more ready pen prospect. That said, if Cashner’s slider gets back on track, he certainly has more upside.
that is an honest mistake
I was planning on putting Hak-ju in my Honorble mention list
….untill it fizzed up and got to be so big…. but I wanted Hak-ju in there mainly because of the effort I wanted to emphasize that the Cubs system is much better right now than it was 1-2 years ago.
I’ll add Hak-ju Lee to my H.M. anyway but I need to start trimming it down….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
ugh ...wow I will fix
thanks again for pointing out those errors.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
He’s at #68 which I feel a little too low.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Oct 26, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Josh Bell vs Brett Wallace
both trade around the july deadline. It seems bell might have more power projection, defensive value, etc. to put him a bit higher than wallace right now
I guess wallace defensive value knocks him down to not even be a top 5 3b prospect
yeah, well there are those myself included that have Wallace as a 1B now
I like James Darnell, Josh Bell, Josh Vitters, Lonnie Chisenhall ..possibly even one of Moustakas or Dominguez more than Brett Wallace as a 3rd basemen….
I just don’t see how Wallace’s value is as great as many of these spects’ if he can’t stay at the hot corner, at first base he means less to the Athletics especially since Chris Carter, Sean Doolittle and Daric Barton are already all on there radar or even there roster today.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Alright, I'm leaning towards moving up 1B Justin Smoak to #5
and #13 to 101 all move up one spot.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions
Inelligibilty
Maybin and Latos are both over 130 ab/50 ip iirc
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
by cwhitman412 on Oct 26, 2009 4:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
ok time to do some more editing....
thanks C-Whit
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
You know know that its pretty much past 120 and into 130
Michael Brantley should probably get a mention….
but I like Tyson Gillies better….. – I may be alone on that one.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 27, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Hard to say
Brantley’s almost a year and a half older, but he played at two levels above Gillies. Both have excellent speed, Gillies probably has the edge as a defender (at least according to BA) and Gillies had a better wOBA (.411 at A+) as opposed to Brantley’s (.344 at AAA). However, Brantley appeared to be unlucky (.288 BABIP) and Gillies looked lucky (.395 BABIP). These players have similar speed so you’d expect those BABIPs to be closer especially considering Brantley has a better K rate (10.5% vs. 16.3% for Gillies). Interesting discussion anyways…..
by Alex Trebek on Oct 28, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It is an interesting discussion
I was going to comment, but I couldnt decide between the two. I suppose given the offensive environment Gillies played in Im forced to give a nice edge to Brantley – who is a fine player and prospect. I do really like Gillies though, and think he made actual improvements this year (if not to the extent his numbers would indicate).
wow great point Trebek....
.395 BABIP for Gillies ? really ?
That is pretty persuasive right there….. I see the two as similar players but
I guess Michael Brantley may be the better prospect right now…….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Gillies BABIP is partially speed related.
16 successful bunts for base hits out of 43 attempts (15 sacs). The rest seems to be a lot of flyballs finding holes in the defense, which probably wont continue, especially against superior defenses.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 28, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Lars Anderson
He had an off year, but…I think it is too soon to throw this guy in to the scrap heap. A 21 year old top prospect struggles in AA and everyone is ready to write him off.
Had Both Lars and Beau Mills on my H.M.
but just removed them both….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Desme
He’s still a flawed player but missed time w/ injuries from late in his jr yr in 07 up until 09.
his his 8th afl hr today
Haha, my favorite error?
J.J. Reddick should be Josh Reddick.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
oh come on thats nitpicking
what J.J. Reddick can play PG, Quarterback
why not Left-field ?
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
i think
you’re talking about Greg Paulus…not Reddick
oooops you're right sorry
Ok I better change it to Josh….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 26, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Scott Elbert
he is still a prospect…
How come he is not in this top 100 list??
He's kind of old, but his K ability is undeniable.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
RE: Elbert
yeah, I mean I don’t like him as much as say Josh Lindblom, so if he doesn’t make it (although Lindblom would be top 150 or 140 for sure)
than Elbert can’t make it….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 27, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
oh you have elbert in front of lindblom?
well no wonder…
everyone else has elbert in front of llindblom…
elbert as a starter is a top 100 prospect
elbert as a reliever is not…
but you have phillip aumonte so i dont know..
not in AA or AAA this year
he was starting..
Yeah
but the org wants to keep him as a reliever for the time being, yes?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
does anyone know what the dodgers orgnizzation wants to do with him??
nobody knows… they have no idea…
freeman
rated a bit too high. drop 20 ranks or so?
I disagree
I read somewhere while Frederick Freeman may never have 31-32+ homerun power
he has Joe Mauer like ability to hit for average and battle for batting titles
John Olerud anyone ?
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 27, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions
As a Twins fan you really shouldnt be throwing around terms like "Joe Mauer like ability to hit for average"
Especially for Freddie Freeman…
I also wouldn't throw around John Olerud too lightly
Gold Glove Defense, .398 career OBP (including .400+-career for the first 15 years of his career), and one of the smoothest swings you’ll ever see.
I could be mistaken, but I also believe that he played on the two separate infields for two separate teams with the fewest errors over the course of a full season.
He didn’t play a game in the minors until his final season (3 games), and is considered one of the best college players of all time.
The guy may not be HoF material, but he was exceptionally talented. It’s pretty hard to draw a comp to the guy.
If Freeman is the next John Olerud
he’s a Top 5 prospect. Olerud was awesome with the glove.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Oh by the way
He won a batting tittle hitting 363 with a 473 obp and the 1st three hitters in the lineup were the top three hitters in the American League in 1993, which has never happened besides that year. (Alomar, Molitor and Olerud)
Julio Teheran
Very aggressive ranking, I’m a Braves fan and I don’t even think he needs to be that high yet.
in a top 100?
Both guys might end up being solid guys. Maybe Jones rebounds (I’ve been thinking I put him too low in the Cardinals top 5 post … he was off the top 5 for me). Maybe Garcia continues working his way back. But both guys aren’t coming off seasons that would necessarily be uh … statement years. Certainly health was a factor for both, but combine the past year, along with the fact that neither really profiles as a top notch guy, and I think it’s perfectly reasonable to leave both off a top 120 or so list.
But that’s me.
why would you rate Smoak so far ahead of Carter?
Smoak hit for very little power and he struck out only 4% less often than Carter did last year. They are the same age. I don’t see how he or Freeman, for that matter, can really rate higher than Carter at this point. At least Freeman has his younger age going for him, but performance wise, and projectability wise, I can’t agree with that ranking.
and the
“he doesn’t have a true position” argument doesn’t have any merit here, he’s just as much a 1st Baseman as Smoak. He may have DH’d quite a bit, but he’s still a decent 1st baseman. And the fact that he has pro experience at 3rd and in the OF should be seen as a plus. His Defense at 1st is solid.
Hey now
A’s fan – oakballnack,
Is rating Chris Carter 8 spots behind Justin Smoak too many?
Yes I said Eight….because I can just about Guarantee you that 8 spots whether its in the top 25 or the last 25 (75-100)
means very little …
The 10th best prospect in all of baseball is a darn good prospect
The 18th best prospect in all of baseball is a darn good prospect
nothing changes.
I would also like to point out that I think the spread from BA will be greater between Carter and Smoak then it is here.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I was trying plumb
any reasoning from you, if there is any, other than gut feelings, that Carter should be ranked behind Smoak in the first place at all? What makes Smoak a better prospect? They are the exact same age, same position, and Carter has faired better throughout his professional career. Is it just projectability from a scouting standpoint, or is there another reason?
The scouting difference is a pretty big one
Ive long been one of Carter’s biggest fans on this board, but Smoak is a significantly better prospect. People are far too wrapped up in his numbers. In his pro debut he raked at AA, got hurt, got rushed to AAA and did ok. Now everyone wants to pick apart his numbers at AAA. He was a year out of college and in AAA…
Brett Wallace is also a year out of college and in AAA
And some people act like he’s fallen off the face of the earth.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
I am not one of those people
He is a first-basemen know,,,
and not nearly as good a first-basemen as Justin Smoak, or Freddie Freeman and even Logan Morrison…
IMO
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 31, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
general comment
it may just be me, but it sure seems to me that this year, after the top 5 or so pitching prospects, I don’t see a huge difference between many of the next 20-25 or so arms that people are mentioning. Just seems like a bigger split than in year’s past, but that could just be me.
yeah
I pretty much agree about the Starting Pitching Arms
relief pitching may be a different story.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 28, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Niese is better tha Holt and Flores at this point
Also Fernando is better than Mejia.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I'm starting to doubt the last one.
Less because of anything Fernando’s done, but more on how awesome Mejia’s been. And as much as I love Fernando…the injuries are starting to get just a bit worrisome. I still think he’s gonna be great, though.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
How good is Wynn Pelzer ?
I am warming up to him more all the time…..
He’ll be out of the Cal league and into AA to start next season
and at 23 years old he’ll be a candidate to see Big League Time for the Pads immediately in 2011…
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 29, 2009 9:26 PM EDT reply actions
Alcides Escobar.....
has to be rated higher. He’s had initial success at the big league level. Putting selections like Drabek ahead of him is a crime.
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